Ah! MANPADS! We'll show those Rooshans!

"MANPADS were developed in the 1940s to provide military ground forces with protection from enemy aircraft. They have received a great deal of attention, partly because armed groups have used them against commercial airliners. These missiles, affordable and widely available through a variety of sources, have been used successfully over the past three decades both in military conflicts, as well as by terrorist organizations.^[1]

Twenty-five countries, including the United Kingdom, the United States, Sweden and Russia produce man-portable air defense systems.^[2][3] Possession, export, and trafficking in such weapons is officially tightly controlled, due to the threat they pose to civil aviation, although such efforts have not always been successful.^[4][5]

The missiles are about 1.5 to 1.8 m (5 to 6 ft) in length and weigh about 17 to 18 kg (37 to 40 lb), depending on the model. Shoulder-fired SAMs generally have a target detection range of about 10 km (6 mi) and an engagement range of about 6 km (4 mi), so aircraft flying at 6,100 metres (20,000 ft) or higher are relatively safe.^[6] However, the FIM-92 Stinger (1996 version) has a range of 26,000 feet (7,900 m). "  wiki on MANPADS

---------------

 It appears that US +NATO frustration with Russian unwillingness to surrender Syria to the jihadis will express itself in US + NATO sponsored Gulf Arab purchase of MANPADS for the jihadis in Syria.  26 countries make some variation on the theme of these weapons systems.  They vary widely in capability but are readily available through grey and black arms merchants or through white market purchases by states.  They are not hard to buy one way or another.

A major disincentive for provision of these weapons in the past was the threat these weapons pose to airliners near destination airports.  It should be expected that some of the MANPADS provided to jihadi groups in Syria will be re-exported to their comrades abroad.  They would be a particular threat to Israeli airliners. 

Would the introduction of such weapons to the Syria Civil War on the rebel side be a game changer?  I doubt but do not know enough about the particular weapons available to have a valid opinion.  pl      

http://english.almanar.com.lb/43327

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa-idUSKCN11W2NN

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man-portable_air-defense_system

Comments

[Ghostship]

It not just the civil airlines that should be concerned, perhaps the Coalition air forces should be as well, not forgetting how much certain Gulfies have invested in their state-owned airlines.
Isis militants attempting to shoot down British jets in Iraq and Syria as coalition pounds group ahead of major advance
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-militants-attempt-shoot-down-british-raf-jets-iraq-syria-coalition-bombs-major-advance-mosul-a7327251.html
And on the day that the Russians are regretting their decision to lend Donetsk and Luhansk some heavy SAMs.

[Abu Sinan]

If the Saudis give them to the "moderates" in Syria, the Russians could supply a couple of dozen to the Houthis in Yemen. It would, I think, have an immidiate impact on the Saudi air war in Yemen. Let's see if the Saudis would then be willing to take on the barefoot Houthis on the ground in the mountains of Sadaa without CAS.

[Babak Makkinejad]

If it would stop only there; likely this will be escalating with civilian airliners being targeted all over the world until the antagonists come to the realization that the whole thing was not such a good idea. It could take years and during that time people will die.

[Lemur]

"It should be expected that some of the MANPADS provided to jihadi groups in Syria will be re-exported to their comrades abroad. They would be a particular threat to Israeli airliners."

If that happens, it will simply be an opportunity for Israel to demand more Western diplomatic, military, and financial aid.

[kooshy]

IMO they (the west) will not be concerned with that, or attack on civilian airliners, if they were, their behavior, policy, posture must have changed by now with what happened in Paris, Nice,Brussels etc.
IMO they will not give up until they are defeated on the ground. as matter of fact, IMO no longer the Western civilian life is a concern or any more valuable then that of middle easterners to western policy makers.

[mike allen]

I saw no reference in either the Reuters or Almandar links to the US sponsoring the Gulfies efforts to send MANPADS to the jihadis. What did I miss?

Was the un-named US official sending a veiled threat to the Russians, or just giving a heads up warning to the Turks and Gulfies not to send MANPADS? Since he refused to give his name perhaps it was the former?

In any case, if the Turks provide MANPADS to their jihadis, it would put American warplanes in Syria in danger. If that happens then perhaps someone might give MANPADS to the Kurds?

[steve]

The folks running the world are nuts.

[Matthew]

Prediction: the Russians will just drop bigger bombs. Result: more civilian casualties. So the plan must be either Assad leaves, or the Humanitarian Interventionalists will ensure that Syria itself does not survive.

[Fred]

Babak,

Absolutely correct. Which is why Barack the Brave will look the other way while these gifts are handed out and the mess is left for whoever gets elected after him.

[jld]

"And on the day that the Russians are regretting their decision to lend Donetsk and Luhansk some heavy SAMs"

You mean you DO believe the "official" report on the MH17?

[Jake from Farm State]

I'm curious how a few select commercial flights being downed would affect global business? And it's not like they can't download a $2 app and get all the useful information. But this is crazy speculation. I'm sure all the CIA and military wizards arming the jihadis know what they're doing.

[Jake from Farm State]

Yes, I'm trying to figure out if it's plain old madness or just the devil:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/07/01/as-a-psychiatrist-i-diagnose-mental-illness-and-sometimes-demonic-possession/?postshare=7091467419573016&tid=ss_tw-bottom

[kao_hsien_chih]

Quite possibly, the same manpads will show up in Western Europe or North America, and "nobody saw it coming."

[Babak Makkinejad]

Speculation?

Hardly - please see here:

https://www.flightradar24.com/42.56,-83.12/7

http://callumprentice.github.io/apps/flight_stream/index.html?utm_source=mindstore.io

https://foreflight.com/connect/garmin/

Those threatening to give man-pads to jihadists will be reaping the whirlwind; in my opinion.

[turcopolier]

mike allen

I guess I was extrapolating my belief that the Gulfies are so inept that someone would have to buy the weapons for them. pl

[David Habakkuk]

Kooshy,

I say this tentatively, but I think it possible you may be being too ‘rationalistic’.

It seems to me that the retreat and collapse of Soviet power produced, among large elements in Western élites, a kind of delirious sense of absolute power and self-evident virtue. It is a kind of drug – surrendering it courts a very bad case of ‘cold turkey’.

Accordingly, the prospect of being as it were ‘crossed’, and, in particular, being 'crossed' by the Russians, is absolutely intolerable.

I suspect that the belief that, if enough of show of force is made, Putin will back down, is absolutely fundamental to the thinking of much of the ‘Borg’ – and, among others, Hillary Clinton.

Precisely because it is a belief which is so difficult for them to surrender, there has always been a large risk that at some point they would escalate in a particularly stupid fashion.

As to consequences for peoples lives, be they in the Middle East or the West, when people are absorbed in their own psychodramas, such things simply aren’t real to them.

[irf520]

Or maybe they could call the Saudi and Qatari ambassadors for a little chat in the Kremlin where it could be explained to them that for every Russian aircraft hit by one of their toys a member of one or other royal family might meet with an unfortunate accident.

[Jake from Farm State]

"In any case, if the Turks provide MANPADS to their jihadis, it would put American warplanes in Syria in danger. If that happens then perhaps someone might give MANPADS to the Kurds?"

No matter what happens it'll be Russia's fault with complicity from the Syrian government. You could have Cmdr. Abu al-Ezz of Jabhat al-Nusra giving a full interview with Der Speigel and showing them selfies with the MANPADS firing at the aircraft (while holding a copy of that day's Jerusalem Post) and you'd still have some perfumed Pentagon prince threatening Russia for the shootdown.

[Willy B]

Slightly off topic: The Syrian army has advanced into the Farafira district of central Aleppo. It looks to me like they're trying to cut the jihadi enclave into two pieces. Do I perceive this accurately?

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/video-footage-syrian-army-inside-captured-farafira-district-aleppo/

[turcopolier]

Willy B

Seems right to me. pl

[Tom]

One thing is certain: if a Western airliner ever gets downed by a manpad nobody will fly anymore. That s why we will never hear of an airliner being downed by a manpad even if it really happens. (I believe it already happened)
That is if it happens once or twice or even thrice. But there is a certain treshold. I don´t know where it is but I certainly know there will be a moment when people will realise they are being lied to. That will be the end of civil aviaton for a while. Not that I think that statistically a few airliners will make much of a difference in aviation being the safest form of travel. It is just that human beings are totally irrational about the dangers of flying.Let us see if the US supporting Syria jihadis will finally let the genie out of the bottle.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

'Aleppo must not fall': US allies to flood city with anti-aircraft missiles
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/aleppo-must-not-fall-us-preparing-flood-city-anti-air-missiles-154690394

I read that the Russians have already cut back on helicopter support after one was shot down. R+6 has only two options; allow the jihadists evacuate with their families or kill them block by block. With laser spotting and guided munitions, Russian Air Force can still provide close air support plus the rocket and artillery barrages. Having the planes and helicopters overhead hitting the enemy is a morale booster but not necessary in concrete and rebar rubble.

The above dire predictions are correct. The world war is escalating for no good reason.

Elon Musk is colonizing Mars. The hell with the rest of us.

[b]

The "rebels" also received (at least three) truck mounted BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers with up to 40km reach over the last days.

There is probably more to come.

MANPADs - believe it when I see it. But there are more groups interested in getting MANPADs. Hizbullah, Houthis, PKK, Taliban, Shabab ...

There was one "PKK" demonstration shot against a Turkish helicopter a year or so ago. It should not be difficult to repeat such. To see a dozen or more over Sanaa would be a delight.

[Babak Makkinejad]

You wrote:

"... no longer the Western civilian life is a concern..."

That was my sense of it too after the French ignored the second letter of Ayatollah Khamenei; which had furnished them the political cover to initiate a discussion with Iran and other enemies of Jihadists on how to destroy that scourge.

That is when I concluded that France certainly was not interested in destroying Jihadists - she was still trying to see how she could manipulate them to oust the Assad Government in Syria.

Last May, France blocked Russia’s bid to blacklist Syria militant groups as terrorists. See here:

http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/05/11/465039/Russia-Syria-militants-UNSC-blacklist-US-Britain-Ukraine-France

Even today, 09/28/2016, France is doing all she can to protect the Jihadists in Aleppo; please see here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-france-idUSKCN11Y1T5?il=0

How can one hope to work profitably with France, a victim of Sunni Muslim terroristic attacks herself, when her own government does not seem to care about the blood of the French?

And it is not like US has put a gun to the head of Mr. Hollande either; the French are doing this quite willingly.

[Valissa]

Congress defies the Borg!?!

Congress overrides Obama’s veto of 9/11 bill https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/09/27/senate-poised-to-vote-to-override-obamas-veto-of-911-bill/
Congress on Wednesday voted overwhelmingly to override President Obama’s veto of legislation that would allow 9/11 victims’ families to sue the Saudi Arabian government over its alleged support for the terrorists who carried out the attacks. ... The Senate vote was 97 to 1 and the House tally was 348 to 77. The bill would allow courts to waive claims to foreign sovereign immunity in situations involving acts of terrorism on U.S. soil. ...

The sharp rebuke of the president’s veto is a sign that Saudi Arabia’s fortunes are waning on Capitol Hill. ... Last week,  the Senate voted on a resolution to restrict arms sales to Saudi Arabia until it stops targeting civilians in Yemen. “This is not a time when U.S.-Saudi relations have much popular support on either side,” said F. Gregory Gause, head of the international affairs department at Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service. Just as the Saudis think the administration has tilted too closely to Iran, he said, many U.S. politicians blame Saudi Arabia for the globe spread of Sunni extremism. “I think that’s really simplistic.”
----------

Yup, sometimes "really simplistic" says it best :)

https://themuslimissue.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/saudi-go-and-breed-suicide-bombers-cartoon.jpg?w=610
http://www.blazingcatfur.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Saudi-Arabia-vs-ISIS.jpg
http://www.cagle.com/working/021126/varvel.gif

A more complicated reality...
http://thecomicnews.com/images/edtoons/2015/0401/war/01.jpg