2016 election forecast - 19 September

Between now and the November election we will make periodic checks as to SST members opinion as to the outcomes.  Please give your view as to results in the congress and for the presidency.  pl

Comments

[different clue]

Fred,

Thomas Franks once wrote a book about that called What's The Matter With Kansas? His liberal audience all missed or dodged the irony of his title. They also all missed or dodged his basic argument which was that . . . Democratic working-class voters of culturally conservative leanings voted for Democrats anyway when Democrats supported economic survival and security for the working class. It was only AFter the Clintonite Democratic Party doublecrossed and backstabbed working-class American hard-job doers that they finally realized that the Democratic Party was now their Social Class Enemy. And since the Democratic Party no longer offered them support for economic or social-political survival, and the Republican Party at least offered them support and agreement for their cultural beliefs and desires, they began voting Republican.

But since the Liberals spent all the years from then to now deliberately disunderstanding the point of Franks's book, he has recently written another book just for them which it will be harder for them to disunderstand. ( Though they will certainly try). And that book is called Listen Liberal! (Perhaps a play on the title of C. Wright Mills's book of decades ago called Listen Yankee!)

The self-styled Leftists over at Naked Capitalism are voicing a suspicion that the Two Brand Name Parties are reversing their polarity. The Rparty may become the Working Class Survival party if Trump can win the election and the Trump supporters can begin purging the Free Trade Traitor Country Club Republicans from out of the Rparty. Whereas the Dparty is becoming the "lifestyle liberalism" party of the self-styled Meritocratic high-salaried Professional Classes. One could say that our class system is just a little more complex than the One Percent versus the Ninety Nine Percent. One could say there is the One Percent, then the Next Nine Percent, and then the Ninety Percent below all that. And the Democrats are becoming the party of the Next Nine Percent (plus the Identity Voters).

(Of course if Trump wins and yet retains Stephen Moore as his principal economic adviser, Moore will work very hard to convert Trump to the Social Security Abolition and Free Trade Treason viewpoints of the more traditional Republicans and also the New Democrat Clintonites -- though Moore would be offended at having his views on Social Security and Free Trade branded as Clintonite . . . even though his views on Social Security and Free Trade are Clintonite. And that would delay or derail that polarity switch with the Rparty might otherwise make.)

[different clue]

Old Microbiologist,

If Clinton falters or falls, Kaine is right there to take her place. The Dparty will never allow Sanders the Dparty nomination. The Ds would rather lose to Trump than see Sanders become President.

[different clue]

Cee,

Is there evidence that African American support is bleeding away from Clinton? Anecdotal? Linkable?

How much bleedaway?

[jonst]

They would respond Tyler "which Americans?". If it is even remotely possible that it might be their kids (speaking of a Class now, not anyone person) they will answer one thing. Other people's kids....different answer.

[herb]

"You're living in poverty, your schools are no good, you have no jobs, 58% of your youth is unemployed -- what the hell do you have to lose?"

That is an insult, not asking someone to vote for you.

And talk about "virtue signalling", Trump said that to a white crowd in Lansing, MI, where the virtue signalling is "those blacks are shiftless and helpless" at the same time as "look at me showing how much I care about the blacks".

Nobody signals virtue better than The Donald.

But no "virtue-signalling" or anecdotes or fabulism needed. The data does the talking. Aside from the LA Times tracker, despite his "surge", there is no recent poll that has Trump support over 44%. He isn't expanding his base and won't expand his base. It's baked in.

People don't take a flyer when buying a house, they don't do it on a "what the hell" basis. They won't do that for President either. They may stay at home and say screw it, but they aren't going to pull the lever for the lulz.

[herb]

Well, according to that noted liberal bastion, the Cato Institute, your odds of being killed by an immigrant in a terror attack, including 911, is 1 in 3.6 million. The odds of being killed by a refugee terrorist are 1 in 3.6 BILLION.

So, when the odds get higher than dying from something like getting my necktie caught in a machine, then that would be the number.

http://www.vox.com/2016/9/13/12901950/terrorism-immigrants-clothes

[Laura]

herb...best summation ever. "the golden egg laying the goose!" I hope I can quote you!?

[Sam Peralta]

Cee & DC

Here's one black guy's take on Obama saying it would be a personal insult if black folk didn't vote the way he wants them to.

https://youtu.be/vQAcSpKqDPM

Man, that was some serious talking down to! Really, what's he done for the hood? More black kids in poverty.

Contrast Trump's message to them: (h/t: Jack)

"The Democratic Party has run the inner cities for fifty, sixty, seventy years and more.

4 in 10 African-American children live in poverty, including 45% of those under the age of six.

2,900 people have been shot in Chicago since the beginning of the year.

For those suffering and hurting, I say: give Donald J. Trump a chance. I will fix it. What do you have to lose?"

[Sam Peralta]

At least he's pitching his products in the open for all to see. Unlike the Crooked Clintons, who talk the kumbaya game but are all sleaze as they take the big bucks from the Saudi sheikhs under the cloak of charity.

[smoke]

"If God forbid Hillary should suffer a stroke between now and mid-October, Kaine wins handily."

This raises a question that I have seen addressed nowhere. Lots of speculation about various Hillary replacements, should she not make it to the finish line. But nothing have I heard about any order or procedure for addressing the situation.

So if a prez candidate, after the nomination but before the election, or before inauguration, falls out of the contest due to health, law, or other circumstances, are there any written guidelines for how a replacement is selected. Is it a Party decision, and do they have club laws addressing the question? Party hierarchy? Or is it decided at the federal level? What would be the procedures?

Surely on both sides, esp DParty, there are contingency plans by now.

[Sam Peralta]

CWZ

I agree with you. There's a huge enthusiasm factor difference between Trump and Hillary voters. The pictures of Trump rallies vs Hillary rallies really speak to that point visually.

The media gasbags just can't figure out what's going on. How can they? They've never got out of their own cocktail circuit and can't fathom hanging out with the Deplorables.

If Trump wins it will be epic meltdown among the MSM and the establishment as well as the PC acronym soup crowd.

[Martin Oline]

Fred:
I was wrong. In the event of a tie in the electoral college, the election does go to the House but the options are limited to the candidates running. If you want to know more I went to here:
http://time.com/4482377/electoral-college-tie/

Johnson could win in Utah.

I didn't make it to the event. The noon news showed a very large crowd waiting outside and it was HOT! They were going to open at 1 P.M. for a 3 o'clock rally. It was raining hard over there at 12:30 (according to the weather map) but they had opened the doors early because of several cases of near heat stroke. I came real close to heat stroke a couple of years ago so my thermostat doesn't work so good anymore. I stayed home.
I wanted to get a TRUMP bumper sticker to partially obscure my Bernie sticker. You are right: I just want to piss off the smug Demoncrats!

[kao_hsien_chih]

May you and all your grand virtues elect Trump, without any of the votes from us real deplorables. So virtuous you are that you don't need any votes to outvote the unvirtuous.

Geesh, whose's virtue trolling whom?

[kao_hsien_chih]

Trump did not "ask" the blacks. He told them, in a highly offputting manner, to vote for him, or "else." That's arrogant and insulting virtue-signalling, worthy of his and, I suppose, your pals the Clintons. I am not voting for any of these Trumplintons after all these nonsense.

[Fred]

herb,

Thanks for the Donald Trump quote that you do not attribute to him. I want to thank you, the national spokesperson for black Americans, for telling me what is insulting to black Americans. Thank God I no longer need to listen to Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Michelle Obama, Colin Kaepernick, Kanye or any of the other well known black Americans to find out what black Americans think. (wasn't that one of Trump's point?) Thanks for setting me straight on these other things:

Is unemployment among young black Americans 58%? I see it's Not disputed by you or any of our national politicians.

What is it black Americans have to lose by voting for Trump???? It can't be that crooked politicians like convicted felons Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, Congresswoman Corrine Brown or even crooked school principles like the baker's dozen going to jail here in Detroit are any better.

He didn't speak in a venue you approved of? Well you left out the church in Flint but you make the point (by implication) that a televised address is not acceptable. I guess he better knock on a few million doors personally. Don't be too shocked when he decides he can get some free media doing that by going - secularism forbid - "Straight into Compton" (That will make a great twitter hash tag). I'm sure the Secret Service detail will love that almost as much as the media elite.

[Fred]

Herg,

Maybe Hilary can mention that next 9-11. I'm sure the families of the dead will appreciate the mathematical insights.

[Thirdeye]

Five Thirty-Eight shows Trump still behind but on a trend to overtake Hillary in the coming weeks. Of course there's no guarantee that the trend will continue. I suspect that movement in the polls is strongly event-driven. Race riots, terrorism, email revelations, health issues, and elitist insulting comments from Clinton and Co. have all been moving things towards Trump these past few weeks. If, and that's a big if, Trump can avoid high profile mistakes he's in a position to win it.

I'm a little more confident about predicting that the next President will be deeply unpopular, face a midterm electoral disaster, and have a real problem staying in office (maybe even face impeachment). If Trump is weak in his presidency and farms out policy to his veep and other Republican establishment figures that would be the biggest mistake he could make IMO. He's a roll of the dice on foreign policy, pragmatic towards Russia and Europe but nuts about Iran and Israel. Maybe the former could modulate the latter if Putin impresses on him what is truly needed to deal with ISIS and Al Qaeda.

[kao_hsien_chih]

There is this story from NYT, a few days ago:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/15/upshot/hispanic-and-black-support-for-hillary-clinton-is-overrated.html

Not really a clear sign that Clinton is especially "bleeding" black support lately, or indeed, any minority support, but since such large proportion of minority voters, if they vote at all, vote Democratic lately, that Democrats enjoy overwhelming support among them is meaningless. The real question is whether they will turn out, and the answer seems to be probably not. There really is no enthusiasm for Clinton at all, except among the Freds and Tylers of the world (oh, wait, were they supporting the other woman? Who can tell the difference between the two of them anyways?)

[Jack]

Bill

I'm a Ron Paul guy like you having written him in the last 4 presidential elections. I wrote him not as a protest vote but because his philosophy aligned with mine. This time I'm seriously considering voting for Trump. If I do, it will be the first time voting for the duopoly in over two decades.

I was in Iowa 2 weeks ago. Among the people I met, there was a clear enthusiasm for Trump. The distaste for the Clintons was palpable. The media attacks on Trump are having the opposite effect as these people wear it like a badge of honor.

[Tyler]

Kao,

You keep using that term. I do not think it means what you think it means.

[Tyler]

Herb,

I'm sure your numbers are very comforting to the people digging shrapnel out of their shoulders and the families of those killed in San Berdoo, Boston, Miami, and NYC.

So basically infinitely as long as you get to moral signal? Good to know.

[Tyler]

herb,

Also, ridiculous methodology that ignores the fact that Muslims go kaboom at much higher rates than about anyone else. And yes, you are right that Cato is quite liberal. They'd be down with Hillary's globalist agenda.

You are like a little baby, struggling to comprehend physics. SAD!

[Sam Peralta]

Kao

"For those suffering and hurting, I say: give Donald J. Trump a chance. I will fix it. What do you have to lose?"

What do you think this is? "Offputting"? To whom?

Check out what some black guys are saying. They get it.

https://youtu.be/vQAcSpKqDPM

[Fred]

Martin,

I've stood in some similar lines before, I think I'd have skipped this one too.

[Fred]

Kao,

He made no threats. Or "else" what, they get Hilary? Here's the transcript.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-michigan-speech-transcript-227221