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19 September 2016

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Laura

kao_hsien_chih--I agree completely with your analysis on all levels. Would love to win the Senate, but .... it's gonna be interesting for sure.

charly

Or something similar. Texas will vote republican outside of a gigantic landslide

Tyler

A question for the Fifth Column here: How many Americans need to be killed or maimed before you consider Trump has a point about not importing more violent 3rd Worlders? Shoot us a basement number on h9w many need to be bombed walking down the street before you consider your virtue signalling has a price.

tilde

Prez- 50/50 at this point. We'll see who puts their foot in their mouth more during the debates. My vote remains neither (Stein).

Congress- No clue.

Fred

Margaret,

The real estate industry and lobbyists (for them) imposed rent control regulations? I find that rather hard to believe.

"...earned everything he knows in NYC real estate." You mean he learned to be a ruthless SOB in NYC not at Wharton? On a bright note at least the Deplorables will have a ruthless SOB they can believe in.

jonst

I got a feeling "typically" is of less relevance this election than any since, say, Truman-Dewey (and Wallace and Thurmond, lest we forget). And I emphatically disagree with the (recently popular) notion that 'momentum' is "..largely a myth.". Hillary is in trouble. Trump (and the Borg) both are certainly capable of 'getting her out of it'. But I would not bet the house on Hillary. Nor Trump, for that matter. But we've taken the latter as a given, for the most part. Not so with Hillary. She is reeling. If the debate is even a draw (or, more relevantly, perceived as a draw) she will be done.

My two cents.

Fred

Outsider,

" .... what we are seeing done by the Western powers at present is comparable to the evils committed by the regime of Nazi Germany."

Yeah, Pol Pot, Stalin, Mao, Idi Amin and the dj's @ Radio Rwanda have done nothing compared to USAID, Médecins Sans Frontières, the Rotary clubs and what ever soulless group put out this song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjQzJAKxTrE

kao_hsien_chih

I thought I had written "what's left of the union voters IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY." SOME people are very presumptive about what they think they are reading.

Fred

Kao,

Authoritarian countries don't stuff the ballot with "capable political leaders" they stuff the ballot box instead. (just like one party's super delegates do) "The people" voted in what started out as a thirteen way primary race leaving Trump the winner. Jeb, the capable two term Governor of Florida, thought his $100+ million would lead to a different result.

Fred

The symbolism in this campaign cycle is telling. Trump, after playing the media and the Establishment like that Southern boy played the fiddle when the devil went down to Georgia, emerged as the Republican Candidate. Now he has changed to the classical genre: "acting presidential". The candidate forum showed he could behave and wasn't a complete buffoon. Hilary on the other hand collapsed at the anniversary memorial event honoring victims of 9-11. There is a steady drum beat of truth contained in all those emails the great sell out, Bernie, didn't care about. Every beat of the drum there is another revelation of what all fear to know about the Democratic candidate. This Sunday a jihadist bombed Chelsea. Does that name remind you of anyone's daughter? I think if this continues Trump is going to win easily. The down ballot races are going to be harder to predict.

kao_hsien_chih

Not really "forecasts," just an intelligent summary of how the current poll numbers are changing and the implications for the electoral college--that is literally what Sam Wang does. Clinton has consistently led, which is not a shocker, considering two things: the overall demographic advantage that favors Democrats and deeply held distrust of many Republican voters for Trump.

Missing from the picture are two things, though: 1) will the Democrats turn out in such numbers to actually take advantage of their demographic advantage? Clinton is deeply unpopular among many Democratic demographics, while Obama did induce higher-than-usual turnout among the young and the minorities. Will this be a serious factor? (The way pollsters deal with the "likely voter" question is a bit dicey. Since we don't know who got screened out as "not likely voter," we don't know how things are different this time. USC/LATimes poll has tried very hard to avoid the turnout/partisan response bias and has produced a set of numbers that consistently estimate significantly higher Trump votes--I wonder if they really are seeing things that others are not seeing, or if they went too far...) 2) will the Republicans who say they don't like Trump hold their nose and vote for Trump? As far as I know, no poll has satisfactorily addressed these problems (not that we'd know if they have, since we don't know the "real" numbers--but actually collecting and publicizing data on "not so likely voters" would go a long way.)

Both these factors suggest that Clinton is probably weaker, by significant margin, than what the polls suggest, but we lack the data to quantify how much weaker. That's the salt (the limitations of what the polls tell us) we need to approach the polls numbers with.

Tyler

Maggie,

Vs. One who learned everything from Ayers and the Choom gang.

Glad you're voting for Emperor Trump.

Tyler

Herb,

This is the insult version of a two year old handing you a page of scribbles and declaring "its a plane!" or some such. Misusing memes, anecdotes that ring of fabulism, and the ever present liberal projection as your candidate rails against a cartoon frog.

In between the lines, you can almost hear the shrill panic as you (herb) realise Borg Grandma is going down hard.

BraveNewWorld

I'm not American so I don't like to meddle to much in your election as is really chaffs my ass when Americans do it to us. But I would like to ask. What do people think the odds are that the next prez who ever that turns out to be servers two terms?

Cold War Zoomie

Trump will win because:

1. The Democrats under Bill Clinton abandoned the blue collar middle class workers, signing NAFTA and falling in love with Wall Street and "triangulating" for short-term political gain. Meanwhile...

2. Young voters and left leaning Liberals who were part of the Obama coallition got a middle-of-the-road northingburger president who's biggest accomplishment is a Rube Goldberg contraption called the ACA that will likely implode, and nothing much more. Meanwhile...

3. The Democratic Machine pushed across the primary finish line the absolute worst candidate imaginable. Meanwhile...

4. Trump's supporters will crawl over hot coals to vote for him. No amount of "gaffs" and inside-the-DC-bubble analysis by TV talking heads is going to change that. Meanwhile...

5. Hillary will be over-rehearsed and a cut-out caricature of the consummate DC insider during the debates. And it will be all over at that point.

To paraphrase a line from 1994: It's the enthusiasm gap, stupid!

The House will stay Republican, as well as the Senate. But the Senate will be a squeaker with 51R to 49D. Pundits won't understand how Trump became president or why the GOP did not implode as predicted because they're too far gone inside Beltway groupthink.

kao_hsien_chih

The trouble with many of Trump supporters, and to a large degree, Trump himself, is that they act like they don't need to reach out beyond their current coalition. Even if they get all the regular Republican votes and add maximally to the working class white turnout, they will barely have enough to get a majority, or not. One would think they'd try to reach out, but nope.

I dislike the Clintons enough that I was willing to see if Trump and his people would actually ask for votes from people like me. Not only they are not, they react as if voters have no right to expect that politicians should be asking for their votes. (Ironically, exactly the biggest problem I have with the Clintons.) If neither wants my vote, and votes of the people like me, then they ain't getting it.

Bill Wade

A while back some neocon said "Florida will decidedly vote Clinton". Here in my neck of the woods (SW Florida) I see only Trump signs and bumper stickers, and lots of them, Trump by a landslide is my prediction. Clinton is seriously ill I believe and a well-known liar, what is there to like about her. BTW, I'm still a Ron Paul guy. Had he not been media marginalized to death, we'd be far better off today. The MSM can't even lie with a straight face anymore, the Borg will die, thank God.

Linda Lau

But you didn't mention his father who was such a crook that Woodie Guthrie wrote a song about his greed.

Les

I claim no great insights into US being a canuck.
We canadians voted out a neocon & got a neoliberal, who photographs well.

Anyhow I read this at American Conservative last night:

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/unlocking-the-election/

The historian author fires off wads of historical analysis & says it's Trump.
Also says it's Trump vs Obama's last term, because that's what people remember.
And Hilary has not endeared herself to anyone who isn't already sitting on a bag of money.
Trump doesn't scratch any of my resentments but at at least great power war might be off the table for a couple years...

Linda Lau

I tremble as I write this, but I think Trump will win for a very simple reason, not enough Democrats will vote. By the way, I am writing this post from Panama.

MRW

You're electing a president who learned everything he knows in NYC real estate.

This is a crime? There’s something untoward about being a developer?

And I doubt NYC real estate taught him everything he knows.

IRC Section 1031 is federal, btw. Go to Starker.com and read about it. Read the brochure on the panel on the left side. You’re going to have to reduce the View to read it, or you will need to download. Starker.com explains it the easiest.

MRW

I would have bet HRC until the basket of deplorables comment.

I think that comment rekindled old animosities toward Hillary.

MRW

Read this Dan Sanchez article on Samantha Power. Note the Hillary connection.
http://original.antiwar.com/dan_sanchez/2016/04/25/hell-earth-paved-samantha-powers-good-intentions/

David

More of Obama talking like the narcissist he is, as it is all personal and all about him.

Old Microbiologist

I think Trump has entered into his end game. His campaign is pure marketing genius. He did and said whatever necessary early to keep his name out there and get free advertising. Now in the late game he will settle down and solidify his positions in a manner pleasing to those close to making a decision but not yet having decided. It is useless to tray and attract anyone from the left and he isn't wasting any effort there. Hillary has only to lose as she had and should still be far in the lead. But, her weaknesses are attriting her voters. Most will stay away from the polls out of disgust. The alternative candidates are attracting mostly liberals, particularly those who supported Sanders. I believe most of these votes are being lost by her and will result in the lead enjoyed by Trump. The closet Trump supporters are still out there and may become more apparent after the debates. But, it is still early and a lot can still happen. My bet is she drops out and there is some flurry to get someone who can actually beat Trump, perhaps Sanders which might explain his counter intuitive actions.

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