2016 election forecast - 19 September

Between now and the November election we will make periodic checks as to SST members opinion as to the outcomes.  Please give your view as to results in the congress and for the presidency.  pl

Comments

[Nancy K]

I am not sure about the presidency, it could go either way. If Democrats come out to vote in record numbers than Clinton will win. If they don't then Trump could win. I think the House will stay with the Republicans, but the Senate could switch. Here in NC Ross looks good at this point but it is really too soon to tell. I think Gov McCory will be defeated by Cooper, he is not even popular with his own party and this is a state that loves sports and losing some championships being played here because of HB2 is not setting well with voters who are not conservative or rural.

[Eric Newhill]

I've been saying for over a year that Trump will win in a squeaker. I'm now revising to say that Trump will win handily; not a landslide, but by a comfortable margin.

Hillary's general weakness/declining health, her looking down her nose at "reprehensibles", her desire to import a gazillion people, some of whom, want to kill us, into a bad employment situation and her lying and corruption will all work against her with increasing force. Her vaunted assured minority block voting is beginning to unravel. Obama is not helping her on that front with recent arrogant and, frankly, stupidly insulting, comments to blacks. The Obama years have not been good for most Americans and they are not looking forward to more of the same.

Trump, otoh, looks/behaves increasingly "presidential". He releases increasingly detailed policy positions. Trump offers hope.He represents "change" that many want. Soccer moms may be offended by him. He may make them nervous, but bombs on street corners and train stations, jihadi slashers in their malls make them much more nervous. Socially, they deny Trump. In the voting booth, they pull the lever for him.

At bottom, excepting some die hard utopian dreamer lefties, the country is sick of the progressive/RP2 wackiness and the debt, poor economy, destroyed communities and destroyed morale/moral fabric that it has wrought upon us.

This sentiment carries over to congressional elections. The country will not return to hardcore Christian right-ism, but is looking for moderate conservatives. Any running will win.

[Margaret Steinfels]

Have expressed my views here before; I repeat: I will vote for Clinton, my vote being as much against Trump as for her. I agree that his chances have improved.

Too little has been written about the New York real estate world that Trump inhabits. That alone is reason to hope he doesn't win the election. Watch out fly-over land, he will sell you to the highest bidder and get a tax-break to boot.

It's possible the Senate may go Democratic, but I am not enthused about the possibility that our NY Senator Chuck Schumer becomes majority leader. Dick Durbin of Illinois would be better for the Democrats and for the United States.

[morongobill]

Trump and I don't think that it will be that close.

[kooshy]

Colonel thank you for keeping the US elections as an ongoing discussion on SST, but, do you think Assange will have a (big) say in this, if so I agree, he could, but, that is if he can pass the MSM shield and on to the voters. So far DT is gaining and has the momentum at least last week', if he can control his impulses, and his loose mouth. I also agree that a businessman who must meet payroll every friday, will not risk his own money, will risk the bank, or investor' but not (very risky) his own'.

[BabelFish]

I would have bet HRC until the basket of deplorables comment. POTUS is begging African American voters to vote, a sign that they feel a level of regurgitation when thinking about her. She has not energized the Obama constituency and it is probably too late.

I believe it all hinges on North Carolina. Unless there is a second Snowden apocalypse. Or a Trumpalypse. I am betting Drumph, in a close one. And if that finally destroys the Democratic Party, so it can be reborn with real Bern in its soul, I am ready for that.

[Ramojus]

I believe that regardless of the actual vote totals, the Borg will never permit a Trump presidency. Therefore I see a repeat of the 1960 Nixon - Kennedy election with vote fraud in Cook County Illinois and certain counties in Texas (or something similar).

For the first time, since I was eligible to vote at 19 years of age, I am sitting out this election.

[kooshy]

Colonel on the other hand I tend to think domestic , muslim related terrorism may be a bigger deciding issue . Unless an internal email realised, will indicated that actions taken in ME, NA etc. will increase indiscriminate terrorism domestically and was ignored.

[LeaNder]

New York real estate world that Trump inhabits.

I shouldn't comment here, considering we have election troubles of our own.

But: I am vaguely aware of that part of his history. But how would he fare from a comparative perspective as one among others in the NYC real estate tycoons scene?

[Tyler]

Trumpslide as the Left doubles down on invade the world/invite the world and Hillary only has more Leftist boilerplate/identity politics nonsense to offer.

[TAD]

Trump. The Clintons are methodically losing the election. The election shock will be the Republicans holding the House and Senate because of really bad planning and candidate recruiting by the DNC.

[FourthAndLong]

FWIW: Trump cracks 2 to 1 odds:

https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/us-election-odds-september-15-trump-trades-at-lowest-price-yet-150916-51.html

[Tyler]

Glad POTUS took time from his busy schedule of golfing and lecturing blacks to vote for Hillary in order to lecture the nation about how we shouldn't notice facts and if you notice Trump's Muslim ban makes sense you're a racist.

[kao_hsien_chih]

To me, what is remarkable is how the fundamentals of the election really hasn't changed much. To recap:

Clinton enjoys solid support among the "wonkish" class of the Democratic Party, while deeply distrusted by the young people, liberals, what's left of the union voters, and the minorities. While 3 of the latter 4 will not turn to Trump, their turnout is likely to be low, even if the numbers among the few who do vote will be overwhelmingly in her favor.

Trump enjoys solid support among the working class whites who turned to the Republican Party, but is deeply unpopular among the "wonkish" class of the Republican Party. This is much harder to read than the Democrats: I can say fairly confidently that Clinton will bleed a lot of voters to "none of the above," but the wonkish voters usually vote--and this is why Clintons had been courting the wonks heavily on the Democratic side. Despite the unpopularity, it seems reasonable to expect that Republican wonks will, by and large, vote for Trump while their noses. The dropoff may be enough to make some states (e.g. North Carolina and Colorado) more competitive (or turn them more Democratic) than they otherwise might be, but Trump's edge among the working class whites will also make other states more competitive (e.g. Iowa, Michigan, probably Wisconsin.) Others (Ohio and Pennsylvania) are harder to predict: both feature a lot of both working class voters and wonkish voters--what Trump gains in the middle PA, he might lose in Philly suburbs.

Overall, demographics still favor the Democrats: I figure Clinton still enjoys an advantage--I expect she will win popular votes with about 60% probability or better, more or less--BUT, the actual margin will be tiny: I expect 44% vs. 43%, or something in that range. However, things are more volatile this time than usual, with a lot depending on who drops out of voting for the two party system. If the 3rd party votes are between 10-15%, I think Trump has an advantage--Discontented Democrats are more likely to withhold their votes than discontended Republicans. If the 3rd party votes approach 20%, Trump is certain to be toast. Given the distributions of the votes of different types--significance of working class white votes in key swing states--there is a not insignificant possibility that Trump would lose the popular vote but captures an electoral majority. Still, I'd give Clinton 55-60% chance of winning the whole enchilada, though.

I think Republicans keep the House--that's a no brainer. They might lose half a dozen seats, or maybe a dozen, but that's to be expected in a presidential year.

The Senate is harder predict. Republicans will almost definitely lose Illinois. Many of the rest (NV, NC, PA, NH, WI, probably IN and OH too) depend heavily on Trump factor. I actually expect, even if "regular" Republicans vote third party for president, they will still vote Republican down the ballot if they show up. What "new" voters Trump can mobilize, on the other hand, might add to their totals. Many potential Democrats who defect from HRC will sit the election out altogether and, even if they show up to vote third party, they may not be as loyal down the ballot as their Republican counterparts would be. If Trump wins, Republicans will hold on to the Senate, with the Trump voters/Clinton non-voters providing the winning margin (which would be highly ironic, given how Republican leaders think Trump will be bad for their downballot candidates). If Trump loses, especially by sizable margins, Republicans will probably lose the Senate.

[Lars]

Ask the question after the debates when it will be much clearer. HC still has an easier path to 270 and the "momentum" is largely a myth. Typically, most people do not really make up their minds until the last 3 weeks of the campaign. We are not there yet.

[Dante Alighieri]

The Congress is beyond my European horizon, but Pepe the Frog Trump can (and according to my bets will) win the presidentials. After that though, he'll be totally out of his league. There is no telling what he will do, and those who speculate about his "nationalism", "isolationism", "risk aversion" or even "common sense" might be in for some very big and unpleasant surprises. I'm not ruling out he will simply outsource his foreign policy to the neocons. Trump has played masterful tricks on the moron MS media but, once president, will play the same tricks on his voters. I haven't been offered any reason why he shouldn't. This is a unique and most memorable presidential election. The Trump phenomenon has not really been cogently analyzed, the US is hysterical and Europe is clueless about it. Perhaps something is deeply wrong with a political system that leaves voters with no more than deciding who is the worse of two abysmal candidates.

[mike]

Clinton will win easily except in states that are restricting voting. SWWMB will vote for her and so will I, gladly. I am agreeing with Margaret S's comment above on the Senate.

My crazy neighbor, the lady with 22 cats and almost as many Trump signs berated me the other day at the mailbox. She had received her latest copy of the National Enquirer and waved it at me. She claimed it was proof that my choice of candidates has had three strokes, Alzheimers, cirhossis of the liver from her excessive drinking, and suffered from violent rages. She is predicting Trump in a landslide. I hope she is wrong.

[Freudenschade]

Col.,

With the electoral college map skewed against him and a late start on a ground game, Clinton will be our next President.

Senate: dems will get 50 or 51, which amounts to the same thing with Tim Kaine casting the tiebreaker.

House: best case, they crack 200. More likely they are somewhere in the mid 190's.

Lars is right. Most undecided voters don't break until late. Let's see what the debates bring.

[b]

Presidency:
Not Hillary
Congress:
No change

[Imagine]

People really hate Washington. Dems believe if they simply show Trump lies often enough that people won't vote for him. Trump is a grandmaster at BS, he promises the moon then changes the topic, never says how, but that's what brains remember. So everyone who voted for GWB, and everyone who hates Washington, is going to vote for Trump in spite of knowing that he lies. They don't care. He represents change.

Taking down ObamaCare is going to end up being the secret tiebreaker force. Won't be discussed but ppl will think about it. Vote w/wallet.

Hillary will win amongst anyone who's read Hitler's history and can think. That's about 3% of the population.

Duterte and Ergodan show this is the era of the successful strongman. During times of economic crises, people respect demagogues who act like mafia lords.

Hillary may very well be able to pull it off using computer voting fraud.

Hillary might be able to pull it off if enough electoral college representatives change their votes, through conscience or motivation. This is quite rare, but we are a republic.

Otherwise, (Sept) I'm predicting Trump wins, 51% to 49%.

If God forbid Hillary should suffer a stroke between now and mid-October, Kaine wins handily.

[Will]

Trump will win. I've been watching the odds change at realclearpolitics. The've gone from roughly to 4:1 to 2:1 in a month. i'm ready to put skin in the game and place a bet on Trump, if i could figure out how. haha

i generally support Trump b/ am worried about his Iran rants. He has some good genes. His middle name John is for his uncle who was a distinguished electrical engineer. and his sister is a senior judge on a federal Court of Appeals.

https://sports.bovada.lv/politics/2016-u-s-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-2016-u-s-presidential-election-201611300000

[Anna]

"...our NY Senator Chuck Schumer becomes majority leader." Another image that stimulates Clinton's major "donors" of Israel-first persuasion.
Considering the bloodthirsty womenfolk that Clinton has assembled in DC - among them the lying psychopath Samantha Power and the Nazi-fraternizing psychopath Nuland-Kagan - the US mothers (as well as Ukrainian and Syrian and Libyan mothers) should expect more of their children dying for "democracy on the march" and other Golan Heights & oil projects.
It would not be surprising if Clinton's major moneyed enforcers begin regrouping, rather soon, around Trump, since Clinton' failing health makes a heavy addition to her sinking reputation of "we came, we saw, he died..."

[kooshy]

This from BHO lecturing the black community, must have been really encouraging, appealing, to the rest of this nation (whites, asians, latinos, etc.) who want and hope to put the racial difference away a quote from president of United states who says, he wants to keep the nation united , go vote for Hillary because I am worried for my legacy

“We have achieved historic turnout in 2008 and 2012, especially in the African-American community. I will consider it a personal insult and an insult to my legacy if this community lets down its guard and fails to activate itself in this election,"

[BabelFish]

Correction to Assange, not Snowden.

[Will]

former guv Martin suggested a HB2 cure last year. the charlotte city council repeals their ordinance. then the Assembly takes back their bill. status quo ante. i saw where the idea is now getting traction. Ahh u have moved from VA