“The World Turned Upside Down” - TTG

ISTANBUL — Syrian rebels backed by Turkish troops and tanks recaptured the Islamic State’s last major stronghold on the Syrian-Turkish border on Wednesday, inflicting yet another defeat on the militants rapidly dwindling “caliphate.” By late afternoon, rebel fighters and Turkish officials said the rebels had reached the center of Jarabulus after encountering almost no resistance from Islamic State fighters, who appeared to have fled ahead of the advancing forces. Photographs posted on social media showed rebels posing in front of government buildings in the town’s central square.

The capture of Jarabulus deprives the Islamic State of a crucial foothold on the Turkish border, used for funneling foreign fighters and supplies, and is expected to help accelerate the militants’ demise elsewhere across its self-proclaimed caliphate.

The offensive was spearheaded by Turkey, which sent tanks, troops and warplanes into Syria for the first time in the country’s five-year-old war to help a force of hundreds of Syrian rebels. The operation also includes U.S. advisers, who are advising the operation from inside Turkey, while American surveillance aircraft are providing overflight intelligence and are poised to contribute U.S. airstrikes if necessary, according to a senior Obama administration official.

The presence of Turkish troops in Syria will also add a new layer of complexity to the already massively complicated war, potentially pushing Turkey closer toward conflict with U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds and perhaps the Syrian government.

The offensive against Islamic State fighters in Jarabulus, along the Euphrates River, began just hours before Biden arrived on a mission to repair the eroding U.S.-Turkey relationship, which is considered crucial to the ongoing battle against the Islamic State.

“The major goal of the trip is to make sure that our alliance remains rock-solid and that relations get back on track,” said the senior official, who was traveling with Biden. “We can’t afford any friction in our relationship right now, because we have a lot of business to do with the Turks.” (WaPo)

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So, has Turkey turned against IS? I’m not convinced. There have been no battles or casualties in the “Battle for Jarabulus.” All IS forces made an orderly redeployment to al-Bab prior to the Turkish-FSA invasion. This was all coordinated by Turkey to prevent further Kurdish advances in north Syria. I doubt Russia was surprised by this, but I have no idea of their part in this move. They only publicly expressed mild concern for these recent developments. Besides, the Russians have been busy tamping down the latest dust up between YPG and SAA forces in Hasakah.

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U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is calling on Syrian Kurdish forces to move back across the Euphrates River, telling them they will lose U.S. support if they don't.

Speaking at a press conference in Ankara on Wednesday, Biden says Kurdish forces "must move back across the Euphrates River." He says "they cannot — will not — under any circumstance get American support if they do not keep that commitment."

Biden indirectly expressed support for the Turkish operation launched Wednesday to clear Islamic State militants from the town of Jarablus and deter Kurds from further expanding in northern Syria. (AP)

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Once more we have stuck it to the Kurds. No one, including the Kurds, should be surprised by Biden’s remarks. I am sure the Obama Administration is desperate to prevent Turkey turning to Russia and away from the NATO and Borg hegemony. Obama cannot risk being labeled as the one who lost Turkey.

So far, I have not seen any indication that the YPG Kurds are withdrawing east of the Euphrates. I doubt the YPG is willing to abandon many of those newly liberated Kurdish villagers to the Turks. There are reports of YPG/SDF forces reinforcing their lines north of Manbij and digging trench lines to to meet the advancing Turks. We shall see what will happen in the coming hours.

I’d almost give my left nut to see the instructions sent by the CJTF in Baghdad to those Special Forces teams fighting along side the YPG/SDF for all these months. I am reminded of my team sergeant’s admonishment many years ago, “Well goddam sir. The first thing we do when we get off the goddam DZ is to put a goddam round through that goddam radio.”

TTG

Comments

[johnf]

Assad and Putin most probably got something out of all the whirlwind of diplomacy that preceded the whirlwind of alliance changing and fighting.

Turkish newspapers are reporting the number of FSA rebels as 5,000 (whether that covers just the FSA or all the other jihadi groups I'm not sure) but they must have come from somewhere, and with those numbers quite a few must have come from the Aleppo/Idlib area (I've seen a rumour they were offered higher wages).

That must weaken the terrorists in the West to Assad and Russia's advantage. They did get something out of the diplomacy. And in the East, as they had little or no control, they lost little or nothing.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/timeline-of-euphrates-shield-operation-in-jarablus.aspx?pageID=238&nID=103175&NewsCa
tID=352

[alba etie]

TTG
Thanks for being our guest author in Col Lang's away time.
I would wonder if the Syrian Government might not be open to a deal with the YPG that would set the KURDS up as a federated state - in return for blocking Erdogan obvious designs on expanding Turkish sphere of influence ?

[The Twisted Genius]

alba etie,

I think the Syrian government and the Rojava Kurds are fully capable of federated arrangement in a united Syria. It would involve tough and contentious negotiations, but as long as the Turks and the Borg buzzards circle overhead, it is in their best interests to do so. How the Kurds, the SAA and Russia respond to the Turkish invasion will definitely shape these negotiations.

[johnf]

In addition, Latakis is especially close to Russian interests.

From memory, Turkmen, Chechen, and Uighur jihadis have been especially associated with that province, but some at least of these groups have been mentioned as being deployed in Jarablus.

[turcopolier]

TTG

Wedding anniversary today. 53 years. That is actually un-American. That is a great piece you wrote. Yes, the message from Baghdad must have been classic. And so we have AMTRAK Joe stepping in to deliver yet one more betrayal of a native ally. It makes you sick to think of it, just sick. Who are the "rebels" who are cooperating with the Turks at Jarabulus? pl

[Matthew]

Col: Congratulations. 53 years. Many more to come!

Col and TTG: Why did the Kurds attack the NDF in Hasakah? If this was not some long-range "strategery," then are the Kurds as rife with factions as the Palestinians? If so, then their Rojava project might be doomed.

[The Twisted Genius]

Happy anniversary to you both. Don't know how you're going to celebrate, but a quiet day/evening centered around your outdoor kitchen would be wondrous.

I think the Turks pulled a lot of fighters out of the Idlib area for this Jarabulus offensive. I've seen uncorroborated reports that the YPG/SDF has engaged the invaders and are holding their own and even pushing them back.

[Barish]

Liwa (or Fouj now) Sultan al-Murad, Faylaq al-Sham and - of all things - Harakat Nurideen al-Zinki, going by the logos attached to photos shot of the bunch advancing in camo gear and walking through abandoned Jarablus.
Armor accompanying this "moderate" bunch appear to be operated by TSK themselves. Further, skirmishes have been reported between SDF and "rebels" to Jarablus's south.

[The Twisted Genius]

Matthew,

There have been tensions and skirmishes between the Kurds and NDF for years. I have no idea what the origins of these particular tensions are.

[alba etie]

TTG
One interesting marker to measure the viability of a Syrian /Rojava Federation will be if the YPG actually withdraws back across the Euphrates . I wonder how much the USG is really committed to forcing the Rojava Kurds to back down from Erdogan . Its pretty clear to me that the Russians can & will take up whatever support the USG withholds from the YPG . There seem to be preyy consistent reports that the YPG /SDF have even integrated CAS capabilities with the Russian Air Force now yes ?

[alba etie]

Col Lang
Congratulation to you and Mrs Lang ! Happy Anniversary .

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

According to different sources on twitter ( the usual suspects on that topic)

FSA and the so-called moderated al-Zinki (the same one that beheaded a 12 y.o Palestinian boy), Sultan Murad Division, Jaish al-Tahrir & Turkmen Martyrs Battalion plus some jihadist mercenaries abandoning Aleppo fronts & heading to join Jarablus because they were tempted with higher wages.

[The Beaver]

Meanwhile Barzani in Ankara:
"Big changes coming to the region"

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/240820164

[Balint Somkuti]

Congratulations Sir!

[Thomas]

Happy Anniversary.

[The Beaver]

Here is Erdogan's spin Twitter a/c on the operation:

https://twitter.com/EuphratesShield

[alba etie]

TTG
Another item to think about IMO is how far will Russia be willing to press Turkey for concessions in clearly what Leader Putin has come to see as his Near Abroad in the Levant generally - especially in regards to the Russian jihadis that johnf mentions below . IMO we also should remember recent events in Russia . I recall how the Polite Green Men intercepted the plane load of Turkmen -was it at the Sevastopol Airport a few years back ? Then there is the dead Russian pilot Erdogan's minions murder . I think it could very well be in Russia's interest to see the Rojava Kurds have a federated state inside of Syria.

[Lemur]

The US is torn between placating Turkey and supporting the Kurds in the same way Turkey is torn between supporting the rebels and supporting Assad (to stop the Kurds).

Few other things i picked up on:

>Apparently Biden was met by a mere deputy governor, not even the governor or a minister. Cold welcome. (Trump will not be pleased)
>Turkish deputy chief of intelligence has been meeting with his counterparts the last few days in Damascus.

[The Twisted Genius]

alba etie,

In the first comment, johnf hit the nail on the head. The Russians and the SAA benefit from the pullout of the rebels from the Latakia and Aleppo fronts. The Turks are paying them more to join the fight in the north. I think we'll be seeing a series of surprises in the coming days.

[CE]

According to (YPG-affiliated) Firat News Agency:

[...] They have mobilized the “North Army”, whose main body consists of Jabhat Al Nusra, Ahrar Sham, Nuretting Zengi groups and Sultan Murad, Sultan Abdulhamid, Asifet Şimal groups in complete alliance to them. They put the man called Osman Salih, who is from Turkmen Mountain and had been there before, to lead these groups. Osman Salih set up a headquarters in Havar Kilis village in Kilis. The groups mentioned above have continually sent groups from their forces in Syria to prepare to attack Jarablus. Osman Salih received the coming fighters and equipped these fighters with the weapons, ammunition, uniforms and boots given to him by the Turkish army. These groups didn’t have much in numbers. A reliable source who wishes to remain anonymous has given the information that these groups recruit fighters from AFAD controlled camps and said:

“These groups approached AFAD-controlled refugee camps to recruit more members. They recruited hundreds of boys aged 14 to 16 from these camps to attack Jarablus. They paid 300 dollars cash per person. The most obvious example is the Asifet Şimal group. This group under Ebu Ali Sico’s control doesn’t have a single fighter. But now, hundreds of their fighters are waiting in Karkamış to cross over to Jarablus. He recruited all of those fighters from these camps.”

The gathered gangs had been waiting in Havar Kilis and Karkamış for a week. [...]
(http://www.anfenglish.com/features/turkey-s-jarablus-gamble)

Apparently the Turkish army will have to do any serious fighting.

[Ghostship]

"Obama cannot risk being labeled as the one who lost Turkey."
Has it floated off into the Black Sea or is it happily chugging round the Indian Ocean? Perhaps it'll pop up off Tierra del Fuego.

[turcopolier]

ghostship

Yes, just as the "China hands"once lost the Middle Kingdom Turkey is probably just hidden in the mist for a bit. pl

[Kooshy]

Colonel, congratulations,you have already won the gold( much more valuable than BHO' noble), and on your way to platinum, you are right, in this modern times, is rear to see marriages last that long. Encouraging, and wish you best.

[Kooshy]

Colonel, I remember back in 1980' election,when Kennedy was running against Carter in primaries ( I still think he was D* head ), the rhetoric coming out of Kennedy camp was "Who lost Iran". In this year' no one to like to vote for, no hold is bared election, anything goes, including who lost Turkey which IMO will not make any difference to the shepherds and the sheep.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Congratulations

TTG

Thanks for the update. This is too damn interesting. What ever happen to trust and honor?

To preserve the Obama Legacy and avoid a Trump Presidency, this could be the first step of a joint Turkish American incursion on to Raqqa and Mosul by October. The Kurds will stand pat if is forced back across the Euphrates. Turkey will have to supply the troops and tanks to regain a part of its old Ottoman Empire. The Saudis and Israel will have assured that the Shiite ground supply corridor from Beirut to Tehran is severed. The world is at war. If NATO and Russia start shooting at each other for whatever reason, this starts WWIII.