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03 August 2016

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michael brenner

We already are doing most of those things - to small effect. The Russian air campaign has been far more effective.

Linda Lau

To Tyler please expand on your comment - I don't understand.

Herb

Unfortunately, I believe Trump does have a chance to win. Trump has a large and impervious minority. Maybe 35%. If Gary Johnson gets enough exposure to challenge Clinton on a larger platform, he (together with Jill Stein and disaffected Sanders supporters) could pull enough soft Clinton support to elect Trump with 36% of the vote. Gary Johnson is already clearly appealing to Sanders voters. Not yet effectively.

What would President Trump do? It is painful to contemplate.

I believe he immediately hands off all practical leadership duties to Pence, as he proceeds in the ceremonial CEO role of "being the face of the nation". Trump is pathologically incapable of being out of the public adoration. It is a drug, and he is an addict. Therefore the first six months will be a victory tour. Likely world-wide. Meanwhile, Pence would be working to create a legislative and foreign policy agenda where none had seriously been created during the campaign period. Much of this agenda will be born of vicious infighting between various Trump sycophants.

Trump may, in fact, be faced with a partially bi-partisan impeachment initiative. Based on? Your guess is as good as mine. They will find something. By the time this Presidential race has concluded, the Republican party will be a gutted, divided and toxic wasteland. The adults left standing are going to be scrambling to salvage a party which can actually compete in the modern world going forward. Trump clearly is indifferent to governing except by fiat. He is indifferent to creating coalitions of any kind, or even cultivating allies in the House or Senate. That will hurt his ability to accomplish anything at all. That is why it will be up to Pence to work at doing so.

crf

First six months:
1) Trump asks congress to create various new federal departments, so that they total 30. He names Democratic senators to at least half of them, leaving the GOP with a supermajority in the Senate.
2) Trump holds a summit with Putin, and then Xi, then May.
3) A border policy agreement is signed between Mexico and the US. Trump touts it as a "virtual wall". Also announces increased physical border hardening. Claims his border-wall promise to be kept.
4) Budget deficit will be $3 Trillion: largest in the history of the US. Announces a Rooseveltian public works program. (He surely wants his face on Rushmore after he passes away).

elev8

A famous Yogi Berra quote will fall into disuse and be substituted by the phrase "Prediction is hard, especially if we are talking about Donald Trump's actions."

elaine

Speaking of Trump's wall, does it run down the middle of the Rio Grand or
does he cede the entire river to Mexico? Awhile back someone voiced
concern for "all our furry friends" that drink out of that water, what
happens to them?

It concerns me that he doesn't speak about environmental issues unless they're all covered under the general category of getting rid of regulations. I have so many questions on numerous topics...every presidential election gets crazier & crazier. Sometimes I think I'd prefer a coalition government over this 2 party madness. Tell me about The Wall.
Please don't misinterpret me or imagine my motives on this question. I
love the fact that the Border Patrol has endorsed Trump. The wall won't stop visa over-stays.

Peter Reichard

Acting more presidential and rational than his detractors deem possible but poorly informed about policy details Trump is coopted by his advisers and moved into more establishment positions. His abrasive personality alienates congress and produces gridlock. Relations with Russia and Israel improve but worsen with Iran. The border wall is approved but major conflicts erupt over Obamacare, mass deportations of illegals and the nomination to SCOTUS of a pro business, anti fourth amendment reactionary. Surprisingly there is less change than both his supporters and opponents expect.

João Carlos

Trump will start a war with China.

Edward Amame

Find a replacement for Scalia on the SCOTUS.

Immigration 'reform'.

Attempt to: repeal Obamacare; abolish an agency or two, maybe EPA, Dept of Energy, or the FDA; commission to study all government welfare, relief projects, and ‘aid to the poor’ programs; calm rattled financial markets.

On the FP side. Attempts to calm rattled allies.

Bill Herschel

Trump is a genius at getting positive "negative" publicity.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/world/europe/francois-hollande-donald-trump.html

I would add that he must not be a Mason. Hollande would never criticize the brotherhood.

turcopolier

Edward Amame

"abolish an agency or two, maybe EPA, Dept of Energy, or the FDA;" These exist by statute. pl

Edward Amame

Col Lang,

Statutes can be re-written by a willing legislature.

Fred

Elaine,

Just think of the SES planning jobs to be created to decide this and oh how much consulting money there will be available for environmental impact projects and remediation. It's a liberal dream come true.

Stephen Calhoun

Thanks for providing crucial context 1-3.

With a right wing GOP House and a center-left DP Senate: gridlock.

All of a President's ability to do anything in the domestic realm would come down to executive orders, dialing the executive branch bureaucracies in accord with new goals, refashioning the judicial branch to a minor extent, and budgeting/taxes, etc..

Would the DP shut down the government over a Trump budget?

Stephen Calhoun

How do you see the election outcome in the congress?

turcopolier

Edward Amame

Of course, but I doubt that a GOP run legislature would be all that easy to obtain the dissolutions of whole departments from. pl

Gerard

Another vote for inevitable impeachment, the man simply has too many enemies and doesn't seem interested in building any kind of coalition in the legislative branch. While he's surely a narcissist, probably not much more so than other politicians.

His demonstrative lack of self-control, which many of his followers love, combined with a monarchical business style is what will do him in. His approach as president will be to "get things done", constitutional limitations be damned.

apol

Now way the Borg would hand over Washington to Trump if they couldn't fake a win for Hillary.
An 'October Surprise', civil disturbances, suspended Constitution, a state of emergency..
IMO

Tyler

Elaine

You don't build it down the middle of the Rio Grande. That's silly.

Environmental concerns are overblown by the pro amnesty Sierra Club, another willing tool of the Left that has a multi million endowment as long as it doesn't speak of the environmental effects of mass immigration.

Tyler

Linda.

The mask is already slipping. A Hillary admin will take a 50.1 majority as a mandate from Dawkins to rule as she wants.

Tyler

Brenner,

When someone touches a nerve, it's best to not announce it.

Tyler

Trump had 15000 people show up in Jacksonville.

The polls are splitting geographic localities, oversampling Dems by 10, and eliminating entire brackets of demos in order to show Hillary "ahead".

The media has lied non stop about Syria, Russia, IS, but some of you act like they're the guardians of truth when it comes to domestic policies. Lmbo.

Tyler

Herb

Projection.txt

Stephen Calhoun

Trump wins Florida, North Carolina and Ohio by tiny margins, and wins 279-259. However, suspicions about odd automated tabulations of the vote count are brought forward in the case of both Florida and Ohio.

That growing and credible news story is completely overwhelmed by the leaking of Trump's tax returns on November 15.

(But, the question was about the first six months, so I stop here. Contemplating the transition is terrible enough! I let my imagination have its field day.)

Eric Newhill

Michael Brenner,
I meant to say ROEs would be loosened up. We may be doing some of those things now, but we are , from what I can tell, holding back b/c the Borg still holds out hope for a unicorn victory or enough pressure to negotiate the abdication of Assad.

With the Trump/Putin coalition all targets are fair game.

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