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03 August 2016

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LondonBob

I remember the Brexit campaign. A ferocious establishment media onslaught at the outset that actually ended up undermining itself by the end, then we finally got to the debates with Leave having the better arguments and personalities, the online polls better judged support levels (see the USC Dornsife and People's Pundits Daily trackers) and finally it was the white working class not the young who turned out.

They have gone too soon in the demonisation, just couldn't control themselves.

JohnH

Nah, 3.x years is too long. Trump will be impeached within six months, if not sooner. Senate will try him and vote him out.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will become the new VP, a job he couldn't get in 2012.

ked

The only constitution he recognizes is his own.
I am (somewhat) taken aback by the willingness of people to ignore or rationalize his deeply, dangerously flawed persona. I can only surmise that hate for Hillary, a nihilistic reaction to the Deep State / Borg, impatience for change at any price, &/or end-times fundamentalism all play a role in surrendering to the Maximum Leader to fix everything with attitude and naked power. The Mommy State is so awful, der volk slam (no slouching!) to Autocracy.

optimax

Due to an obstructionist Congress Trump can't accomplish domestic improvements. He threatens Paul Ryan in a speech in Davenport, Iowa:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROnVNY5K-J8

eakens

Re Russia de-escalation...worth a watch

https://youtu.be/kqD8lIdIMRo

oofda

Look for him to have some physical problem within the first year- perhaps heart or a stroke. He seems very out of shape and the stress of the long Presidential campaign plus the stresses of office will wreak havoc on his body.

jld

Ah?
And Clinton would not, or the Chinese themselves?
https://www.rt.com/news/354454-china-sea-war-warning/

steve

Not much will happen domestically. The Dems will decide their first priority is to make sure Trump does not get re-elected. Expect lots of filibusters. On foreign policy where he can work more freely, he is completely unpredictable. Putin will have a real tightrope to walk if he wants to maintain good relations as Trump is so thin-skinned. Trump doesn't know much about the rest of the world so will be very dependent upon his advisers.

Steve

David Habakkuk

oofda,

They’re all much too old – Trump, Clinton, and Sanders.

Welcome to the ‘Brezhnevite’ USA.

Sam Peralta

After 3 months of relentless 24/7 media attacks on Trump as well as the meme that Trump's campaign is in disarray; and over a billion dollars spent by Hillary's campaign and the SuperPACs that support her on attack ads in the battleground states, on the eve of the election, the Demopublican establishment, the big money, K Street and the DC apparatchicks are feeling real good as the final polls in the battleground states show Hillary with a comfortable 6-9 point lead in the battleground states of Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Everyone is expecting an early night with the announcement of an electoral college landslide and Hillary's coronation speech which will announce the triumph of the Borg.

The first signs of something amiss are the exit polls in the swing states which show an exceptional turnout in working class neighborhoods and a reduced turnout of blacks, hispanics and millenials. As the results come in it becomes clear that the election is gonna be decided by a few states where the count is rather close. The pundits are calming folks with "the votes from the urban Democrat cities have yet to be counted fully". The fist shock that arrives is when Fox calls North Carolina for Trump. As the night wears on well past midnight on the east coast, Ohio and Nevada are called for Trump. Now, the election hangs in the balance as the country awaits the results in Florida and Virginia. As dawn breaks the networks announce Trump as the 45th president. The media and the punditry are in complete meltdown.

In his victory speech Trump announces that paybacks are a bitch and the Demopublican establishment, K Street and Wall Street will pay a price.

As his administration takes office they announce the following:

- AG announces special prosecutors to investigate the Clinton Foundation, K Street firms and Wall Street.

- Trump also announces that all existing immigration laws will be strictly followed. Additionally, he issues an executive order placing severe sanctions on employers who hire illegals.

- Trump also orders the US Army to deploy at the border to supplement all border forces to prevent any infiltration.

- AG announces new vetting requirements for all muslims immigrants and the FBI form a group dedicated to investigating & monitoring islamic terrorist sympathizers.

- Trump invites Putin as the first foreign head of state to a summit in DC. After 2 days of discussions, Trump & Putin announce a "no first strike" nuke policy between Russia & the US and a cooperative plan to defeat the jihadists in the ME.

- Trump informs NATO countries that unless they pony up the US will pull out of NATO.

- Trump also announces that the US will pull out of WTO, NAFTA and other trade deals unless they are renegotiated.

- In DC, he announces that he will reduce federal government employment by 20%, firing all the slackers.

- Trump's FTC announces an investigation on media consolidation and the role of cartel like behavior by pharma companies and healthcare providers.

At the end of the first six months, GOP members of Congress and southern and mid-western Democrats agree that they will work with Trump on major reform of domestic policy.

kao_hsien_chih

Well, a Trump White House would almost certainly imply that Republicans will have kept the control of the Senate, as well as the House. That would throw some interesting wrinkles into the mix.

With a slim majority, Congressional Republicans will face a difficult challenge: Trump will start his administration with making noise for (but not quite proposing bills) a number of controversial (read: not popular with the usual Republicans) proposals--reforming healthcare (coinciding with the problems with Obamacare surfacing, both with the insurance industry and the consumers), an infrastructure program, immigration reforms (regarding further restrictions/deportations, possibly the wall), reducing US commitments abroad, Supreme Court nominee, etc. Republicans will be caught between the White House and sticking with their backers. A huge intraparty fight will ensue as soon as things start rolling in 2017, assuming Trump can make it that far. Possibly, this sets up the stage, unless Republicans can manage things very deftly (not very likely) for a big Democratic midterm tide in 2018.

João Carlos

I made the same comment about Clinton. Read the other post. You have no reason for accuse me. Please, be educated.

IMHO, China will not start a war, they are not stupid. I am not sure about your leaders.

The next US president will start a war with China soon or later. The US foreign policy is tha only USA can be a superpower. Following that policy mean tha US stop China before that country have economic and military power to fight US.

Obama policy of containment is not working, so the alternative is US start a war. And I see both Clinton and Trump as capable to start it.

But I am looking your election from other country, objectivelly. I have no reason to be angry if someone dont agree with "my" candidate, like you done with me, because I am a citizen from other country. I have no candidate for defend it with strong emotions, and that make possible to see both candidates objectivelly.

But as the US president affect everyone from any part of world, I have the right to say my opinion. If you agree or not.

I think a Third World War is a very stupid idea. And both Clinton and Trump are capable to start it. Both will have all domestic policy stoped at Congress, so both will need make something decisive at foreing policy. Like bomb or invade other country...

Tyler

Oofda,

Are you insane? The man is a teetotaler and doesn't smoke and looks like he's in his 50s.

If you think Trump looks bad Id love to hear your opinion of Cankles Clinton.

Tyler

Ked

Whoa a Trump=Hitler comparison. That's a fresh I e.

ISL

Right now, the Borg are in full slander propaganda mode, as during Brexit.

If polls do not show a significant swing against Hillary (and not by jiggering the poll questions) in the next week or so, then Trump's Teflon has not worn off, and he wins because Hillary has lots more dirty laundry to air. Surprised the Borg is trying so hard so soon, bad strategy, IMO, but in line with the only thing that matters are lining up the elites.

Trump faces strong gridlock, and tries to make deals with congress. Doesn't work. So first six months he focuses on foreign policy deals. He gets Mexico to help with a US wall in exchange for helping Mexico build a wall on its southern border (True - Mexico is thinking bout such a wall).

FP - some sense returns as the US stops being a bull in a china shop (self-contradictory policies) - public "your fired' moments for neocons.

Domestic: Trump proposes a range of new policies, gets nob where, and starts a massive advertising campaign (aka campaigning for an election) to mobilize his electorate to threaten termination (as in your fired) in mid terms if they don't get on board. Works in red states, less so in blue states. President Trump holds letter-writing "campaign events" in key districts - here him speak, sign your name to a computer generated letter, free (local business-sponsored Bar-b-cue), and both generates lots of uncomfortable pressure and press.

Trump starts rebranding America as "great" and creating administrative rules that make relocating overseas painful, shames one or two companies as a total disgrace, and praises others, leading to an obvious message: Work with me or your bottom line will suffer.

If Trump doesn't create a populist support movement, then he will be impeached in the first six months

jld


... be educated.
... your leaders.
... I have the right to say my opinion.

Not sure to whom/what you are responding.
(I am not a 'Murikan)

ISL

Trump's seems more likely to make a deal with China then start a war, which is very very bad for business, particularly if it goes nuclear. As far as I can tell, Trump does not have true believer faith in anything, other than things that work (aka make a profit).

Hillary, states her true believer viewpoint (We Came, We Saw, He Died - ha ha ha), and only a true believer (in something, aka the neocon creed) is likely to risk WW3 on behalf of a principal).

moreover, Trump has repeatedly indicated that he is willing to work with Putin, despite it being the opposite of the safe political choice. Why would he not be willing to work with China.

Unless you meant a trade war with China. That I could agree with.

eakens

You may want to check your math

Old Microbiologist

Sam, I agree with you on this as it matches everything he has already stated he will do. The big question is the GEMS software permitting corruption of the vote counts on voting machines. He will also have unfettered access to everything the NSA has collected and also has the stones to use this information wisely.

Judith

Appointing a Cabinet proves almost imposible. Trump and Christie have had a falling out before the inauguration, with Trump getting cold feet about Christie because of revelations in the course of the Bridgegate trial, Christie's extreme unpopularity, and Trump's feeling that Christie is insufficiently loyal to him. As a result, Christie's "transition plan" is a non-starter.

Trump nominates Carter Page as Secretary of State, but a coalition of Republicans and Democrats in the Senate refuse to confirm him because of his deference to Russia and its "sphere of influence." Many potential Cabinet picks refuse to serve in a Trump administration. As a result, some obscure individuals are nominated, but only a few are confirmed because of doubts among Senators about their qualifications.

Trump gets into a very public fight, complete with name-calling and insults, with the Department of Homeland Security, which discovered, before the inauguration, that Melania Trump unlawfully worked as a model in the United States while on a visitor's visa, and that she made fraudulent statements when entering the country as a visitor or tourist and in her application for a green card.

Trump turns the day to day responsibility of government over to Pence and his children, and spends most of his time delivering speeches, town halls, meetings and rallies at his various golf courses and other sites that carry his brand. His speeches focus on how great his administration is going to be and continue the pattern of the campaign of offering few policy specifics.

Pushed by his supporters to begin building the big, beautiful wall, Trump engages a firm to produce the plans, blueprints, topographic documents etc. for the Wall. Millions of dollars later, the firm is unable to resolve how the numerous topographic, logistical and legal issues (water rights etc.) involved in building the wall might be resolved. Deadlines for delivery of the plans are announced but continue to be unmet because of such practical problems.

As a previous commenter suggested, Trump's tax returns are leaked and the resulting furor about his numerous conflicts of interest throws the administration into chaos.Trump makes clear that he intends to continue to pursue his business interests while serving as President, and this prompts a public outcry, an investigation by Senate Democrats and ultimately, a constitutional crisis.

ked

Some people read their own bias into the words of others. It's a commonplace

kao_hsien_chih

To ISL, but also others as well,

I doubt news organizations tweak polls because they want to make one candidate or the other look bad--although the net effect is similar. Generally, news organizations don't want to be embarrassed when their polls are too far at odds with the actual outcome when the dust settles, so they want to bring them in line to conform closely to what they expect will take place. The problem is that, lacking the power of prescience, they don't know what will happen so that they will airbrush the dog brown because that fits their sense of reality--only to have the old lady get po'ed at them because she had specifically dyed the dog's green for the photo (I lifted the story from some joke in a magazine article--not sure I got all the details right.) Is the dog really green? Things are weird enough that it might be this year.

ToivoS

That is a scenario that sounds great. Pure wishful thinking unfortunately. I wish it were true.

Matthew

Tyler: What's fascinating that Trump is experiencing exactly the same type of treatment as Jeremy Corbyn in England. Both men could not be more different. But both men are actual "outsiders" in that they want to change their party's status quo. Nor surprisingly, the party hacks view both men as mortal enemies.

The Blairites in Labour are willing to destroy the Labour Party rather than lose control of it.

Does that sound like another political party you know?

bth

Major Department of Defense procurement programs would be renegotiated or canceled. F35, destroyers, nuclear missiles.

Germany will increase defense expenditures sharply.

Japan will increase defense expenditures as will Korea. Japan will modify its constitutional definition of defense. China will test the US response by provoking a sea territory conflict with Japan.

Fascism in northern Europe will get a step up in the polls.

Crimea land grab accepted as done.

US will initiate a large scale infrastructure rebuilding program with particular emphasis on mass transit, highway and bridge construction and airports. Usage tax will be the primary funding mechanism.

McCain brokers legal migration policy and worker program.

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