The first six months of a Trump Administration

I don't think there will be a Trump Administration.  A combination of his errant mouth and Twitter fingers and a relentless 24/7 media campaign against him will be too much but this is worth a try as a balancing exercise.  pl

Comments

[Tyler]

Mexico pays for the wall.

America is great again.

Moon colonies in the next 6 months.

[Lars]

I don't think there will be a Trump administration either. The larger question now is whether there will be a GOP in the future. This could become a rerun of the 1852 election.

[Matthew]

Tyler: This is insightful: Trump understands the difference between the media and the country. See https://twitter.com/ZaidJilani/status/760925674236293120

Here are my predictions:

1. Trump visits England and Israel in the first year, and meets with Vladimir Putin in Austria. He tells the British they are still our closest friend, the Israelis they can do whatever they want, and the Russians that he doesn't want any problems.

2. Trump starts construction on the border wall but runs into a buzz saw in Congress. The Chamber of Commerce Republicans ally with Democratic Identity Politicians to defeat any appropriation for construction.

3. Trump appoints Christie to AG, Flynn to Defense, Sessions to Secretary of State, and Don Jr and Ivanka as Deputy Chiefs of Staff. Poor Eric is stuck managing the Trump Organization.

4. The Republican Congress passes comprehensive immigration "reform." Trump vetoes calling it "a crooked amnesty bill."

5. Trump speaks at the next NATO and announces that he expects each nation to meet its treaty obligations and demands the alliance repurpose to fight terrorism. Countries like Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway balk. The Europeans decide to lift sanctions on Russia. Remarkably the neo-con anti-Russia "crisis" dissipates.

[michael brenner]

Here, in lieu of an Inauguration speech, are Trump's concession remarks.

"Donald Trump, the iconic Republican candidate of his era, bid farewell last night to his followers. In a moving speech at the Alamo, Mr. Trump – famously known as Donald the Capo, to tens of millions - reflected on his failed 2016 presidential campaign.

He offered candid words about the cause of his departure from the global political stage: “The American people have failed me. Who would have ever thought that they would be dim-witted enough to vote for Awful H. as President?”

Trump continued: “She’s more than incompetent – I mean, she’s a woman. What has become of the moral fiber of the American people? It positively feels as if the entire nation has already become Mexicanized. Yes, our noble national soul has been possessed by those rapacious Latinos.

Trump also stressed “My only ambition had been to serve the Volk, and to help every family achieve my special version of the American Dream – you know how to spell the “3 P’s”: petulance, prejudice and perpetual adolescence.”

The disappointment in Trump’s voice was almost palpable when his thoughts turned to the struggle for America’s rightful place under the sun. “My goal was noble, the dedication of my true believers inspiring.”

He went on, “we may have come up short, despite our great sacrifices and heroic effort, and for that I’m deeply regretful. The derivatives stop with me. But in the end, it is much better this way. A people that votes for Hillary Clinton in a rigged election that we couldn't stop is better off without me as their leader. In fact, such a nation doesn’t deserve me as a leader.”

As for his future plans, Mr. Trump was somewhat vague, saying only that he and his latest partner, Melania (whom he affectionately calls “my Slav sensation”), had a number of options and would be deciding shortly about the next stage of life together.

Highly placed sources, speaking off the record, indicate that a 75,000 sq ft villa on the 18th fairway of the Asuncion Golf Association was one possibility. The Capo owns it – indeed, it is the six-pointed gold star of his course galaxy. The villa could allow for an easy segue into retirement.

Mr. Trump also has a book contract in the works. Its tentative title? “F... You, America. You’re Doomed.”

With the words “That’s the real deal”, he rode off into the sunset, with his orange-y hairdo matching the radiance of the setting Texas sun.

[Daniel Nicolas]

Trump wins in November despite media campaigning with the Clintons. The people voting see through their more and more ridiculous attempts to generate outrage.

- Trump Administration cleans house in the VA and other federal .gov organizations
- Congress blocks all attempts to get 'Trump' legislation passed.
- Under threat of the new DOJ bringing charges against Clinton, Obama pardons her in January as one of his last acts.
- Trump turns to foreign issues as he realizes he will get nowhere on most domestic issues. Relations with Russia improve as USA works to destroy terrorists in Syria, Iraq (rather than funding and arming them).

This sets the tone for the whole presidency. At 3.x years, Trump announces that he will not seek re-election as Congress has rebuffed all attempts to make deals with them. he's done his best to right the ship and set the course despite them.

[Outrage Beyond]

If by some chance the Borg Queen fails to rig enough votes and Trump is selected, I predict he will be impeached and convicted.

For what? Who knows, but he will surely provide ample reasons. President Pence will then be a reliable right-wing clown.

[gowithit]

Mr.Brenner, that would sound more like Trump if you you threw in his many "VERY" and "HUGE" vocabulary. Like "...will be deciding, VERY, VERY, soon about the next stage .." or " ...despite our HUGE and great sacrifices and HUGE heroic effort .." I will be so glad to not hear his OVER done rhetoric! But, then there is HER shrill voice for the next 4 yrs, or 8 (OMG!), to pierce my ears!

[paulj]

We can only hope there won't be a Democratic Party either. Together they have screwed the worker (citizens) to the point of desperation. Good cop bad cop. I have no idea which is which.

[LeCashier]

If Trump does win, I believe, that would mean the end of both the Democratic Party and the GOP as we know them. While that realignment is taking place, the GOP becoming a minor party (Tea Party-ish) and the Dems being split into the Wall Street Dem (Blue Dog Dems and Moderate GOPers) and New Deal Dems, he may be able to move/maneuver in that power vacuum. Although he may have room to maneuver, his administration of the office will be chaotic and uncoordinated because of his narcissism and vindictiveness. This gives time for the establishment to sort themselves out. Once that settles he'll be impeached, tried and convicted.

[Fred]

Syria - Trump cuts off all support to the Unicorns and increases support for the YPG and increases coordination of anti-ISIS operations with the R+6 (assuming that they are not destroyed in Syria before January 20th).
Turkey - Trump ensures all nuclear weapons are removed from the country and begins removal of all military units.
NATO - Trump draws down all troops from former Warsaw Pact nations.
Mexico - Trump makes initial efforts for a wall in rural Texas. Begins public campaign pointing out the income in-equality in the country and highlights the endemic corruption in their politics. Announces the need for "democracy" efforts South of the Border (maybe he can repurpose the National Endowment for Democracy)
Venezuela and Cuba - announces support for the people of these countries - should they adopt democratic government.

Domestically,
Instructs the AG to issue indictments for those of Hilary's staff responsible for the obstruction of investigation into the email server. Follows up with an "Abscam" style sting on corrupt members of congress. New AG instructs the FBI to investigate the CGI.
Begins "Operation America" to deport illegal immigrants. Brings a new immigration bill to congress to overturn the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965. Institutes a 12 month H1B visas and student visa moratorium. Cuts off all federal funding for universities and colleges with "sanctuary" policies or who enroll illegal resident students. Cuts off funds for "sanctuary cities". Makes high profile efforts when deporting "refugees".
Submits bill to withdraw from NAFTA and an initial tax code simplification bill.
Survives an assassination attempt in his first month in office.

[Tyler]

Professor,

I assume you're not an English major, or else you'd not need me to tell you that brevity is the soul of wit.

[Freudenschade]

This will be a Pence Administration with occasional helicopter visits by Trump.

1. Demos have a small majority in the Senate.
2. GOP controls the house.
3. Not sure on cabinet

Domestic
1. A "fix" to obamacare, mostly around the penalty. May pass.
2. SCOTUS: Diane Sykes
3. Abortion restriction and planned parenthood defunding.

Foreign:
1. Russian conflict de-escalation.
2. Empty gestures on ISIS.
3. Abrogation of Iran deal.

[Tyler]

Matthew,

Agree regarding foreign, disagree regarding domestic problems.

Trump's victory heralds a changing of the guard in the Republican Party. The intransigents will trade sides or be primaried. The Chamber of Commerce cucks can't argue "muh budget" when they passed Obama's trillion dollar budgets.

Stephen Miller is our very own Judah Benjamin, with more than a bit of the enforcer in him. I can imagine him laying out the terms to any congress creatures who decided to cuck out in favor of the CoC: Get in line or get destroyed, in so many words. Look for this line of attack to be especially effective if Juan McAmnesty loses his primary against Kelli Ward (extremely likely as the days go by) and especially if Paul Ryan's cowardly ass gets retired.

[Tyler]

Lars,

At this point if there's not a Trump Administration there's not going to be an America for much longer.

[Lemur]

You're being ironic but i'm going to invoke 'death of the author' and read it as unironic

[Eric Newhill]

Trump immediately sets about trying to light fires under dead asses to get his domestic programs going (includes The Wall). He finds that DC is far more corrupt and irrational than the business world he has spent his life in. He can't get anything done - certainly not with any degree of efficiency or style. He had been warned about this and had thought he understood, but only now does he truly realize what he is facing. His every sensibility is insulted and he lashes out by frequently holding his version of fireside chats in which he excoriates the politicians that are thwarting him and he urges the American people to vote these bums out of office. Bedlam ensues. The media is freaking out. Politicians are freaking out.....

Meanwhile, in foreign affairs, Trump has buddied up with Putin. Trump tells Putin he doesn't give a damn about Crimea, Ukraine or Syria. Putin can have them both...in exchange... He does want to stomp out ISIS once for and all - and, as a bonus, get some oil. Putin agrees to this trade. Before six months of the Trump presidency has passed, A representative US force (an air wing, a Marine expeditionary force, US Army special forces - and some SEALS and such for good measure (and because their publicity machine demands it) combines with a similar force from Russia, The ROIs are pretty loose and, already, ISIS is being decimated.

[Tyler]

Some other fun dates from the first 6 months of a Trump Presidency:

- Cutlery is presented with fried chicken at a White House state dinner. The next two weeks Vox/Slate/Salon are writing furious articles about Trump's fork and knife privilege and how it's racist.

- The national media discovers more people are killed annually in Chicago than in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lay the blame on Trump, calling it "his Katrina".

- From his Fortress of Solitude in Hawaii surrounded by white people and asians, Obama lectures America about its racism towards blacks.

- Bill Kristol, George Will, and the entire staff of The Federalist commit suicide via cognitive dissonance when Trump contracts for Israeli advisors to help design the big beautiful wall on our southern border.

[Robert]

The Republican party died on July 22, 2016. Rogers Ailes reign ended at Fox News, and Trump became the nominee of whats left of the Republican Party. It will take another decade for it to disappear, or more likely reemerge from this with new ideals and alliances, ones that would have been inconceivable to Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, and Roger Ailes, the architects of the last 25 years of Republican Elections.

[Bill Herschel]

This is definitely not over.

I finally, accidentally, watched part (about 15 seconds) of Clinton's acceptance speech. She is an appallingly, worse than appallingly, bad speaker. Think your worst 70 year old grade school teacher balling out a friend of yours. And this is indicative of the whole problem. There are numerous people out there who can improve her public speaking. But nooooooo.

Trump wins Florida, Trump wins the election. Trump has endorsed Rubio. Got that? Rubio.

First 6 months? Rapprochement with Russia. Pence to the Supreme Court. Walls, schmalls. He's never going to build a wall.

He is an opportunist. A clever opportunist. But he likes Broadway, so God bless him.

[Lemur]

I think Trump will win. Trump chews up the media and spits it out. They broadcast his views for all to hear, thinking 'this will sink him!' Unfortunately for them, the 'values' of the commentariat, and indeed the experience of everyday life, do not align with that of many Americans. Trump has the edge over Clinton through policy flexibility. Once you abandon mawkish enumerations of 'muh principles', you can select a number of policies popular with various sections of the electorate and combine them in one platform. That's exactly what Trump has done. Christians get a lobby. Gays get security and an implicit guarantee they won't be stuffed back in the closet. Bernie bros get the Glass Steagall act and an assurance Trump's won't let people 'die in the street' because of welfare 'reform'. Conservatives get Obama care 'repealed and replaced'. Ethno-nationalists and the alt-right get a step toward arresting the de-Europeanization of America. No more wars is popular with everyone (many conservatives have turned on the Dubya legacy with a vengeance). The middle class receive law and order, and the working class get their jobs back. Most important of all, he's running in the anti-establishment slot.

This platform more or less consolidates the white vote (i.e., draws significant support from all classes of whites), while attracting at least as much minority support as Romney got. Against it are arrayed SWPLs, and the majority of Black and Latin voters.

Trump's secret weapon is the "monster vote" - the electorally virgin or latent voters who are normally insufficiently mobilized to cast a ballot. Arguably, Trump's abrasiveness will mobilize some of his enemy electorates, but this will most likely be vastly outweighed by the new voters Trump has brought in if the primaries are anything to go by.

Trump's style will turn off some voters as the Col. noted. However, there will be more dirt on Hillary and for the next 3 months or so (wikileaks has more apparently), and Trump will be singing the story of her many faults from Ohio to Florida. He'll also force Clinton to defend typically reliable dem states like Oregon. This is very much a war of attrition when it comes to the contestants personally. Trump has a raw will to power that has a mobilizing effect, unlike Hillary who is uninspiring on the stump and naturally wonkish. He's sufficiently mean and relentless to attack usually sacred cows - like generals who perform poorly against ISIS. It's this constant wave of incessant attacks that backfoot his opponents. By the time they've taken up the sword to confront Trump on X, he's moved on to Y. The dems managed to temporarily stem this dynamic at their convention with ''the oppressed' hitting back. Khan hasn't really hurt Trump. He mostly stirred up the progressive faction. Much of the American founding stock will have resented being lectured on Americanism by a Muslim or they simply don't care. Clinton got a slight bump in the polls, but she's fired her big guns now. And every attack that fails on Trump makes him stronger. He's crossing the Rubicon of imperviousness. Unlike Clinton, personally hated for her embodiment of a corrupt establishment, Trump is personally hated for reasons that are essentially apolitical. He's dickish, gaudy, mean etc. That's another Trump edge.

[doug]

I expect Impeachment proceedings to being about 6 months into his term. He will be assimilated or discarded.

[Lemur]

The tea-party and libertarian wing of the GOP are done if you ask me. GOP will be transformed into a civic nationalist party, described as 'white nationalist' by their opponents. The uniparty will be abolished and the dems will be the exclusive representatives of the establishment.

Far more interesting will be the response of the electorate whatever the outcome. Because this is more than a wonk elections, its a 'who we are' election. If Trump did get in and retained support from his voters, only to be impeached, I could see mass civil unrest.

[michael brenner]

You and Trump obviously have much it common.

[michael brenner]

Trump already has said and done things no less ridiculous.

Pity we can't ask him the question that has been on the minds of Americans for more than a year now:

"Mr. Trump, you present yourself as the Alpha male whose prowess makes him uniquely qualified to lead this great nation. To make the point, you boast that you have slept with some of the most beautiful women in the world. Could you please explain to us what the women did while you slept?'

[HawkOfMay]

My friends in Europe (mainly France and Britain) believe that there will be a significant shift of Western European nations towards the Russian sphere of influence. The turmoil and unreliability of a Trump presidency makes the consistency and predictability of Russian foreign policy more appealing.

Once Trump starts playing the 'What have you done of the United States lately' card the Europeans will see no reason not to see what Russia has to offer. Since the only currency that matters to Trump is the zero-sum game the Europeans will go to Russia to see what kind of deal they will offer.

To quote John Noonan (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/john-noonan-trump-nuclear-weapons-twitter): "Nuclear deterrence is about balance. Trump is an elephant jumping up and down on one side of the scale. So damn dangerous."

That is not the stuff that provides confidence to our European allies.