Strategery and tactickery in Eurasia

There is not enough data with which to do an adequate job of analysis on all that is occurring just now, but I think I must make a preliminary "stab" at it with the understanding that all this is subject to revision.

1.  Russia/Turkey.   "My dear friend" is what Erdogan called Putin several times yesterday, and now Erdogan has issued an "ultimatum" to the US to hand over Gulen or forget about its relationship to Turkey.  Firstly, lets get the nukes out of Incirlik.  Why tempt the sultan?  Secondly, does this mean that Turkey will abandon its support of the non-IS rebels in Syria?  My SWAG would be that it does not.  I would expect that Erdogan will try to have it both ways.  IMO he will try to surrepticiously continue to make Turkey available as strategic depth to the rebels while simultaneously trying to obtain Russian support against the emergence of anything like a Syrian statelet.  Whether or not the YPG Kurds and the SDF Arabs advance to al-Bab, heavy IS counterattacks should be expected as the occupation of Manbij threatens remaining  IS communications from Turkey to the Caliphate. 

2. Iraq.  The US/Iraqi effort on the axis Baghdad-Mosul is going to take a long time to develop.  The Iraqi Army and militia forces still have a long way to go to develop the kind of capability that the Pesh Merga and YPG Kurds already have.  A Clinton Administration advised by people like Morell and the AEI neocons would likely double-down on the Iraq effort with US ground troops to carry the offensives all the way to Raqqa and Mosul.   Would the US then let the Iraqi government run the country? IMO that is an open question.  Big Grandma (the Borg Queen) may well think that the children do not play together well enough to be left unsupervised.

3.  Afghanistan.   IS and the Taliban have made a deal to cooperate against the Kabul government.  This doesn't sound like good news.  The government is saddled with "forces of order" that are far too large and expensive for it to ever afford.  It seems to me that this makes the Afghan government something familiar to me, i.e., a regime with large, fairly clumsy forces trying to defend a number of more or less besieged localities against guerrillas who control the countryside.   All of this makes Afghanistan an unacknowledged overseas protectorate of the US.  Will Big Grandma double down there as well?

4.  Libya.  US, French and British SF are engaged on the ground in holding back the IS "hordes."  Well, smallish "Hordes," are evidently the case at present.  But ... small "hordes" may grow.  What will Big Grandma do then?

5.  Ukraine.  I don't know.  Someone please tell me.

6.  Syria.  My SWAG is that R+6 will be able to seal off the penetration in SW Aleppo and re-isolate East Aleppo.   The jihadi friendly media are doing their best to depict the jihadi rebels and their supporters in the pocket as something like Robin Hood and his archers or maybe the Cisco Kid fighting off the forces of Spanish oppression.  That doesn't work very well.   Jihadis are, well, jihadis, but the process of myth building will probably make them heroic figures just as the Argentinian adventurer, Che Guevara has become a tee-shirt theme.  If the Turks do not provide enough support across the Hatay border crossings, the rebel losses at Aleppo and along the dusty, air stricken roads in Idlib will have greatly weakened the rebels.  We will then see if R+6 has enough strength and energy to launch an offensive into Idlib.  If not, then the Russians and Iranians will have to re-think their deployed strength levels in Syria.  pl

Comments

[SmoothieX12]

It is Air Force Day in Russia today. Actually, the new style is Air-Space Forces Day. Just regular promotional and recruiting video--absolutely nothing special. Merely celebration.

[SmoothieX12]

All TU-160s and many of TU-95s are capable of carrying X-101 (conventional) and X-102 (nuclear) cruise missiles. Those are true stand off weapons, stealthy and with the range of 5000+ kilometers. Inertial, GLONASS and terrain guidance.

[Mike]

Russia deploys advanced S-400 air missile system to Crimea:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-missiles-idUSKCN10N1H4?il=0

[Thomas]

"No intention to defend Obama, but I would assume that the master sometimes does not control his apprentice perfectly."

Yes, Barack the apprentice is not fulfilling his masters' wishes of destroying Russia, Syria, and Iran. They will just have to wait until the new apprentice is placed in the presiding chair, then it will be go time.

[Babak Makkinejad]

http://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars

[Babak Makkinejad]

"We take our own culture for granted..."

That is why repeated attempts at creating R&D centers around the world; in India, in China, in Vietnam and elsewhere have failed over and over again to produce anything matching the initial investments.

The executives need to pay attention to the "Makkinejad Theses" and its implications; alas, even if they hear about it they would be loath to admit its relevance.

[LondonBob]

Our new Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have initiated phone calls with their Russian counterparts with the intention of normalising relations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/09/vladimir-putin-and-theresa-may-agree-to-improve-relations-betwee/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/11/boris-johnson-says-britain-must-normalise-its-relationship-with/

Nevertheless the media continue to increase the drum beats for war.

[Harper]

1. Ukraine: The Ukraine situation is heating up, at the very moment that Putin has scored another flanking move in the Middle East. Nobody, least of all Putin, will "trust" Erdogan, but Putin has created an encirclement of Turkey. First, the economic sanctions after the shoot-down of the Russian jet last year, badly damaged Turkey's economy and this is a big concern of Erdogan. Turkey exported significant agricultural products to Russia, Russians were among the leading tourists in Turkey, and Turkey was looking to finalize the Turkey Stream pipeline deal, all of which went down the drain after the shoot-down. The day before he met with Erdogan, Putin was in Baku, meeting with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan and President Rouhani of Iran. They agreed to accelerate the building of the North-South Transportation Corridor, a rail link running from the Persian Gulf up into Europe via Russia. China will exploit this as a part of the One Belt, One Road program, and will help finance the rail links. Putin met with the Armenian President the day after he met with Erdogan, and he is pushing to resolve the Nagorno-Karabak problem, which will improve security throughout the Caucasus region, and provide the crucial final partnership link for the North-South Corridor. Turkey stands to greatly benefit by being part of this realignment. I wonder if this has been in any way coordinated with the Kerry-Lavrov diplomacy, which continues in Geneva at the technical working group level every day.

Ukraine has escalated in this context. Russia claims it foiled a terrorist plot in Crimea and linked that plot to the Ukraine intelligence services. I don't know how accurate the Russian claims are, but Putin is threatening a cut off of diplomacy, and has said a Normandy Four heads of state meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in China next month may be of no use. This puts pressure on the Europeans, especially Germany and France, to pressure Kiev to back off. Kerry and Lavrov have been working on the Donbass situation in their regular talks, and a few months back, there were expectations of some positive movement. That seems to be nullified for now, and I always keep in mind the mischief by Victoria Nuland's crowd, and the ever-present George Soros Open Society Institute.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang, All;
The attached link presents some speculations and some documents. It might provide useful information for those pondering Turkey, the gulen gang, their ties to clinton, etc.
http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2016/08/12/wikileaks-hillary-gulen-intimate-ties-how-the-clintons-gave-birth-to-mullah-gulens-terrorist-network/

BTW, tayyip's announcement about the use of local currencies (Turkish Liras and Russian Roubles) in bilateral trade between Turkey and Russia is being implemented.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Ishmael Zechariah]

And one more link for info on Gulen and his ganf:
http://rodrik.typepad.com/dani_rodriks_weblog/2016/07/is-the-us-behind-fethullah-gulen.html

[Thomas]

"...I think the Gulen issue will ultimately explode in somebody’s face in the U.S. The only questions are whose, and when."

An answer to whose and when, prominent fellows from The Faction and before Halloween.