Strategery and tactickery in Eurasia

There is not enough data with which to do an adequate job of analysis on all that is occurring just now, but I think I must make a preliminary "stab" at it with the understanding that all this is subject to revision.

1.  Russia/Turkey.   "My dear friend" is what Erdogan called Putin several times yesterday, and now Erdogan has issued an "ultimatum" to the US to hand over Gulen or forget about its relationship to Turkey.  Firstly, lets get the nukes out of Incirlik.  Why tempt the sultan?  Secondly, does this mean that Turkey will abandon its support of the non-IS rebels in Syria?  My SWAG would be that it does not.  I would expect that Erdogan will try to have it both ways.  IMO he will try to surrepticiously continue to make Turkey available as strategic depth to the rebels while simultaneously trying to obtain Russian support against the emergence of anything like a Syrian statelet.  Whether or not the YPG Kurds and the SDF Arabs advance to al-Bab, heavy IS counterattacks should be expected as the occupation of Manbij threatens remaining  IS communications from Turkey to the Caliphate. 

2. Iraq.  The US/Iraqi effort on the axis Baghdad-Mosul is going to take a long time to develop.  The Iraqi Army and militia forces still have a long way to go to develop the kind of capability that the Pesh Merga and YPG Kurds already have.  A Clinton Administration advised by people like Morell and the AEI neocons would likely double-down on the Iraq effort with US ground troops to carry the offensives all the way to Raqqa and Mosul.   Would the US then let the Iraqi government run the country? IMO that is an open question.  Big Grandma (the Borg Queen) may well think that the children do not play together well enough to be left unsupervised.

3.  Afghanistan.   IS and the Taliban have made a deal to cooperate against the Kabul government.  This doesn't sound like good news.  The government is saddled with "forces of order" that are far too large and expensive for it to ever afford.  It seems to me that this makes the Afghan government something familiar to me, i.e., a regime with large, fairly clumsy forces trying to defend a number of more or less besieged localities against guerrillas who control the countryside.   All of this makes Afghanistan an unacknowledged overseas protectorate of the US.  Will Big Grandma double down there as well?

4.  Libya.  US, French and British SF are engaged on the ground in holding back the IS "hordes."  Well, smallish "Hordes," are evidently the case at present.  But ... small "hordes" may grow.  What will Big Grandma do then?

5.  Ukraine.  I don't know.  Someone please tell me.

6.  Syria.  My SWAG is that R+6 will be able to seal off the penetration in SW Aleppo and re-isolate East Aleppo.   The jihadi friendly media are doing their best to depict the jihadi rebels and their supporters in the pocket as something like Robin Hood and his archers or maybe the Cisco Kid fighting off the forces of Spanish oppression.  That doesn't work very well.   Jihadis are, well, jihadis, but the process of myth building will probably make them heroic figures just as the Argentinian adventurer, Che Guevara has become a tee-shirt theme.  If the Turks do not provide enough support across the Hatay border crossings, the rebel losses at Aleppo and along the dusty, air stricken roads in Idlib will have greatly weakened the rebels.  We will then see if R+6 has enough strength and energy to launch an offensive into Idlib.  If not, then the Russians and Iranians will have to re-think their deployed strength levels in Syria.  pl

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

Col. Lang:

I would add to this list South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula.

[FB Ali]

IMO the Borg Queen will initially continue the Obama strategy of using SOF and air power, though on an increased scale. This strategy is successful in maintaining a government and holding big towns (as in Afghanistan), but cannot eradicate a Jihadi insurrection and establish peace and stability in a country. However, the US probably has no interest in doing that, since this provides the excuse and opportunity to deploy and keep US forces in that country or region.

Ukraine? I think the US will continue to build up military power in Europe, especially Eastern Europe. Peace will depend on Putin keeping his nerve and not being provoked into an over-reaction.

[The Twisted Genius]

Low level war continues between Ukraine and Novorossiya. Several hundred artillery/mortar shells land on Novorossiyan territory daily. The latest incident was the Russian roll up of a budding Ukrainian terrorist network in Crimea. Several Ukrainian nationals were captured. Poroshenko put Ukrainian forces on high alert as a result. Putin made a typical cool, calm and collected comment. "Russian President Putin called as silly and criminal the attempt of a subversive act by the Ukrainian special services in Crimea aimed at distracting attention from Ukraine’s internal problems and from the authorities robbing their people."

http://tass.ru/en/world/893761

[Nightsticker]

Col Lang

"the rebel losses at Aleppo and along the dusty,
air stricken roads in Idlib will have greatly weakened
the rebels."

I am not sure the Russians/Syrians actually planned it
this way but It seems that the Jihadists in Aleppo have
sort of "own goaled" themselves into the cauldron battle
of Russian dreams.

From what I can follow on the several Internet sources
available [e.g South Front, Al-Masdar, FARS news, etc]
the past week can be summed up as
1. Jihadists mass for attack, suffer casualties under attack from
fixed wing and artillery
2. Jihadists attack SAA perimeter around them. If Jihadists locally
successful, SAA retreats locally, then calls in fixed wing/arty
on previous position. After Jihadists are destroyed, previous
positions re-occupied by SAA.
3. Narrow corridor under fire control of Russians/SAA is used
by Jihadists to trickle in more fodder for (1) and (2) above.
They even suffer heavy attrition on the way in. These doomed
Jihadists are being drawn out of Idlib prov. and other places
and concentrated in the cauldron.
4. I am not reading anything that suggests heavy casualties
on SAA side.
5. The SAA seems to be winning without having to fight
the door to door urban battle.

Nightsticker
USMC 65-72
FBI 72-96

[Lemur]

Turkey is West Asia's new coquette. Flirting with two power structures (NATO, EU, US vs SCO, Russia, EEU) to extract the most favourable concessions in a Dutch auction.

Erdogan's visit to the bear cave - his first foreign visit since last month's urban tank ops - is an explicit troll of the West. Whether the Sultan's new role as the Archbishop of Banterbury pays off remains to be seen.

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

Saw this , this morning:
https://twitter.com/HasanSari7
Tehran hosted top security meeting btw Erdogan,Assad officials recently. Another meeting to take place in the next few days.

[Lee A. Arnold]

If you are going to use "strategery", may I humbly suggest "tictactoetics".

[ISL]

Dear Colonel,

Thank you for a thorough summary of the current state. Would it be fair to say that Afghanistan in addition to lacking cash, Afghanistan lacks the technical capability (maintenance, repairs) and training to use the equipment needed to support the forces it cant afford?

Very concerned about why the current Ukraine (closely connected to HRC) is mobilizing at the Crimea border at this time.

[Edward]

My guess for Ukraine: the government provokes a conflict to distract the public from a collapsing economy.

[turcopolier]

ISL

Yes. The maintenance contracts are yet another great source of graft. pl

[b]

1. Russia/Turkey - all serious Russian sources say nothing came out of the Erdogan/Putin talks. Neither committed to anything. The Russians play nice for the moment but they know that Erdogan can never be trusted - experience. Erdogan is still aiming for Aleppo and using Russia solely for pressuring the "West".

2. U.S. is holding back Iraqis who could have been much further with Mosul if they were allowed to bring in the serious (Shia) militia. Likely still a U.S. attempt to build an oil-rich Kurdistan (including Kirkuk) and the Saudi dream of a Sunni entity.

3. IS in Afghanistan was initially an Afghan government ploy.
The Islamic State in ‘Khorasan’: How it began and where it stands now in Nangarhar
https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/the-islamic-state-in-khorasan-how-it-began-and-where-it-stands-now-in-nangarhar/

No real IS there as far as I can tell but everyone there seems to try to use the "brand" for his own purpose.

4. ISIS in (north-)Libya always was and is just some handful of real ISIS guys from Iraq/Syria and a bunch of hired tribal fighters. No money - no hired tribal fighters. Down south is a different issue. Lots of Jihadi/tribal groups in competition.

5. Ukraine

U.S. building pincer wars Ukraine/Syria to cut down Russia/Putin. Recent infiltration attempt on Crimea was serious, build up for new war on east-Ukraine/Crimea ongoing. Current air-maneuvers in Ukraine may escalate into that. (Lots of U.S. troops around I hear - some covered some open)

6. East-Aleppo is still cut off. No truck goes through. Mighty U.S. propaganda build up. (For what? All out attack on government held Aleppo?) Russian air base will become permanent and build up there continues. Serious Russian air strikes going on in Jihadi back court between Idleb and Aleppo.
Consider each "hospital hit" lamented in U.S. media to be a hit on a headquarter/logistic center or something similar. That is nearer to the truth than the propaganda claims. Likely quite heavy losses for AQ and comrades.

Latest Russian briefing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDpusNChHv8

[turcopolier]

b

As usual your otherwise excellent work suffers from a belief in the cleverness, omnipotence and continuity of US policy. pl

[SmoothieX12]

Yes and No. It is not just Ukrainian government, which is, in fact, completely fragmented. Poroshenko is a pawn, even if an important one. Joe Biden may know a thing or two about what's going on in Ukraine.

[Matthew]

Any significance to Turkey supposedly closing the Bab al Hawa crossing to Aleppo? See https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/763745737347915776

[turcopolier]

Lee A Arnold

How about "tactickery?" pl

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

If anyone can figure out what is going on, it’s you.

I think a quote from the movie “The Big Short” is applicable:
Overheard at a Washington, D.C. bar: "Truth is like poetry. And most people fucking hate poetry."

Corruption rules. The Saudis and Israel’s Supporters have bought the political establishment to promote their own interests. A Shiite ground corridor from Beirut to Tehran is unacceptable to the Gulf Monarchies and Israel. A World War is underway to assure that it is permanently severed. Additional bonuses are that the military contractors get funding and the endless wars destabilize the Kremlin. The consequences be damned.

[Babak Makkinejad]

The important thing was to give Erdogan a ladder from which he could climb down. We will have to wait and see as Russian sanctions are removed how Erdogan and AKP government will respond.

My guess would be that at the moment, The Resistance Axis do not need Erdogan's immediate action; but later, perhaps they would.

[SmoothieX12]

(Lots of U.S. troops around I hear - some covered some open)

Mostly on Yavorsky Range in Western Ukraine--to "teach" Ukrainians. The rest, who knows where;-) The war involving Russia is needed desperately, especially against the background of not so desirable for neocons-interventionists outcomes in Syria. This is to put it mildly. Once one begins to consider the trajectory of what and how hawks (or Borg) in US consider a decline--a lot becomes clear. Not only elections are involved here, albeit "Today we are all Ukrainians" moment is desperately needed, but it is also clear that situation in US economy is not that great, actually and volatility (politely speaking) is coming. Meanwhile, in related news, Russian banks yesterday declared the growth of profits...drum roll...13.5 times compared to the same period of 2015, while the export of capital from Russia dropped 4.5 times. Something is in the making and it is big.

[SmoothieX12]

Strategery

It was Will Ferrell's breakout into big time after his stint as W on SNL. They were really good then.

[Brunswick]

In just salaries alone, the Afghan Security Forces, consume 44% of the Afghan GDP, most of which, (57%) is foreign aid.

Were Afghanistan to become peaceful, stable and it's economy to return to normal, Afghanistan's GDP would be roughly $7 billion, which would "allow" Security Forces in the number of roughly 40,000 in total.

[different clue]

The Beaver,

Hope this goes best possible. Hope this gets wrapped up so tightly by Clinton-time that Clinton has no way in.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Curious. " www.rt.com Server not found" messages on both links. DDOS attack under way?

[Kooshy]

Colonel, TTG
If you seen this news/report

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/11/republicans-and-democrats-agree-centcom-cooked-isis-war-intel.html

Don't you think at this late stage, congress is trying to shift the blame to military (centcom) due to thier own coming reelection?