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15 August 2016

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The Beaver

@ TTG

Quote from Elijah Magnier on his Twitter a/c:

That is his wish perhaps. Shogun can't decide without forces on the ground in harmony with his Air Force. A problem he is facing Note : Typo Shoigu
https://twitter.com/EjmAlrai/status/765279477152813056

In addition, from Haidar Sumeri

#Russia has deployed bombers and other aircraft to #Iran's Hamedan AB in an expansion of its air campaign in #Syria.
https://twitter.com/IraqiSecurity/status/765286655989313538

Sam Peralta

It looks like the Russians are getting even more deeply involved if they are going to base aircraft in Iran for combat roles.

What's in it for them?

And, are they getting into a situation that the Borg Queen and her neocon fellow travelers can exploit to create further chaos?

mike

Shoigu is an interesting person. He reportedly speaks Turkish. But I wonder if it is the Tuvan version of Turkic that he must have learned as a boy in Siberia?

Brunswick

Russia's not closing any doors, they will keep talking as long as their is somebody to talk to,

meanwhile, they will continue to act.

They don't treat Diplomacy like a soap opera, marital melodrama complete with edicts, slamming of doors, long silences and then make up sex, unlike other Diplomat's we know.

different clue

Sam Peralta,

What's in it for them? If Putin's article in the NyTimes about "no such thing as an exceptional nation" and "sovereignty and rule of law should be respected" and other things was sincere, a successful "enforcement" of those things as realizable principles where Syria is concerned is a goal in itself. If it can be enforced with regard to Syria, it can be more easily enforced elsewhere. Also, the Borg and its Global Axis of Jihad may be dissuaded or even prevented from trying such an overthrow and dismantlement elsewhere.

Then too, preserving Syria and its legitimate government would achieve the narrower goal of denying the Global Axis of Jihad a free zone for setting up yet more training camps for yet more jihadis to attack yet more regimes targetted for changing . . . as well as depriving the GAG of a base to train and send jihadis from Russia back into Russia.

Aka

interesting and independent. Seems he has very little to do with Putin. And he became a minister when Putin was a non-entity in Russian politics.

Ghostship

It's the Tu-22M3s which so far have been operating out of southern Russia, so instead of a 2,800 mile round trip with reduced load to bomb Aleppo, they now have a 1,300 mile round trip with full bomb load (26 short tons). They could partake of two missions in a day and still be back in time for tea. So reduced cost and increased destruction - surely the neo-cons would approve.

Dubhaltach

In reply to Sam Peralta 15 August 2016 at 09:18 PM

Adding to the comments of Different Clue & Ghostship below:

Take a look at a map. You can get to Syria from, for example, Chechnya by motorbike. In fact by motorbike is exactly how Chechen jihadis who've been captured in Syria got there.

One of your more disastrous presidents had a slogan about fighting them over there so you don't have to fight them on your homeground. It was never more than a slogan used to justify hamfisted dimwittedness as taking a look at any map showing where the USA is locate will soon reveal. But it's entirely applicable to Russia and to the former Soviet republics.

What's in it for them?

Denying their enemies a base from which to train and launch attacks. That's what's in it for them.

SmoothieX12

Seems he has very little to do with Putin

It is a very wrong impression.

Walrus

Russian defense ministry confirms Syrian airstrikes out of an Iranian airbase. looks like checkmate for the "'bomb Iran" advocates.

'http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-16/first-time-russian-strategic-bombers-strike-isis-irans-hamadan-air-base

The Beaver

@ TTG

A bit controversial to some but it paints the reality:

http://warontherocks.com/2016/08/washingtons-sunni-myth-and-the-civil-wars-in-syria-and-iraq/

"In the first of two articles, a Westerner with extensive on-the-ground experience in Syria and Iraq explains how the West’s understanding of sectarian identity in the Middle East is fatally flawed. He reveals new information on these civil wars and their participants."

The Beaver

According to Elijah Magnier today:

Strikes on Aleppo, Idlib and Deir-Ezzor by RuAF from Hamedan

Babak Makkinejad

That slogan is revived and is being used in Iran in regards to the war in Syria.

Fred

Walrus,

I'm sure the neocons will try to spin this as a danger to our "ally" Turkey.

Margaret Steinfels

Do you have a link for the Putin statement? I'd like to read the whole thing. Thanks.

Sam Peralta

"..a base to train and send jihadis from Russia back into Russia."

Makes perfect sense.

If the Borg Queen gets crowned in November do you think Russian forces in Syria are in danger of attacks with sophisticated US arms provided to the jihadis? How would the Russians likely respond to such provocations?

SmoothieX12

Russia, forget Middle East, which is very open country, with freedom of speech Western Europe can only dream about, with millions of tourists. It seems that it wouldn't take much to get it right, right? Forget it. It is like a Wheel Of Fortune--West can get some, of even all, letters right and yet, fails time after time to come up with the right word. The problem is not in complexity of ME (or Russia, or wherever)--the problem is West's "elites", their "education", world-view and a combination of other malaise so well noticed by Alexis De Tocqueville 180 years ago. In simple words--US (and West in general) lives through Chalabi moment non-stop and not just in the last 25 years.

Aka

Sorry. Not "has". "had"

Liza

Margaret Steinfels:

I believe he was referring to Putin's editioral in the NY Times, published at the time of the agreement to remove chemical weapons. Putin wrote that it was dangerous for any nation to view itself as exceptional.


http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?_r=0

Liza

Another interesting development: China will provide Syria with humanitarian aid and may provide training to the Syrian military.

https://www.rt.com/news/356161-china-syria-military-training/

Dubhaltach

In reply to Babak Makkinejad 16 August 2016 at 09:44 AM

For Iran it's entirely apposite.

michael brenner

Since we are all experts on ISIL, al-Qaeda, Assad, Iraq, Iran - and even Washington, I feel uninhibited about speculating as to what's going on in the Kremlin. Obama, and the administration that he nominally heads, has been trying to square circles in Syria. In this cause, they repeatedly have tried to marginalize (if not eliminate) the Russia factor since Moscow keeps doing and saying things that highlight the contradictions in Washington's actions. Kerry's ploys over the past few months have aimed at doing this by trapping the Russians in phoney cease-fires, the rebranding of al-Nusra & Assoc, and related maneuvers. This strategy has had a few tactical successes but seems to have reached the end of the road after the latest fiasco of the 'war party" pulling the rug out from under the Oslo-dreaming Kerry.

Now, it's Putin's turn to try trapping the Americans. In effect, the Shoigu message is saying: if you are really concerned about the humanitarian situation in Aleppo, if you really are dedicated to achieving "Syria for the Syrians," if you really want to crush the terrorist groups - then, we're prepared to help you militarily, politically inside Syria and diplomatically by doing "X & Y & Z." I suspect that the expectation in Moscow is that this will go nowhere. but were Obama to bestir himself to seek a genuine resolution of some sort in the interests of his famous "legacy," Putin would be glad to cooperate.

Live by smoke-and-mirros; die by smoke-and-mirrors.

oofda

He was the Minister of Emergency Affairs, under both Yelstin and Putin, from 1991-2012. He got a reputation for competency and hands-on leadership in handling emergencies.

PeteM

I wonder if the YPG/SDF Kurds after fighting for and expanding their Rojava will favor returning it to a United Syria ruled by Assad even with some semi-autonomy? The Kurdish Nationalist goal is the creation of Kurdistan with Rojava being one province in that larger dream.

The Twisted Genius

PeteM,

The Rojava Kurds have formally called for a federated system for the northern cantons with those cantons remaining in Syria earlier this year. Damascus wants a united Syria without federation. The difference lies in the degree of autonomy. This is doable. Turkey is more opposed to any kind of Kurdish federation than Damascus.

https://www.rt.com/news/335774-kurds-federal-system-syria/

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