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08 August 2016


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No, he's talking facts. You're talking inanity and burying your head deeper in the sand. In this case, the fact its a Republican organization is laughable as if all the mainstream Republican organizations are against him.

Furthermore, your denial sounds more of that peculiar "LA LA LA" nonsense that floats around here lately. All one has to do is look at the demographic metrics, in which it obviously shows an oversampling of Democrats in these surveys by double digits.

Or for tldr: you're a damn fool of a shill, and a bad one at that. Sad!


I'm just a computer programmer who spent five years working in political science survey research, and I have followed it, on and off, for thirty years. If I'm a shill, I wish someone would tell me where to pick up my check. The pollsters put Trump in the lead for the GOP nomination starting in July 2015:
and yet suddenly, according you folks, the exact same set of organizations are in the tank for Clinton? Not seeing it.



That last I read, all she can do is pray to recover from the next disclosures.
Now, will the MSM report them?
I do see an Independent stepping forward but don't know enough about him.


Dr. K,

Keeping telling yourself that.



Shouldn't you be writing another long winded post about how Trump is doomed while hoping Big Grandma doesn't keel over before Labor Day?



Bullshit. (((Nate Silver))) basically engaged in Talmudic talking of black into white to explain that he actually right in spite of being totally wrong over and over again. Humility? Rigor? lmbo. Silver didn't learn anything except to double down on his shilling.



Was this man invited to get a reaction from Trump to divert attention from something else?



I guess Scott Adams nailed it:

If you support either Clinton or Trump for president, you are under the illusion that it makes sense to hire a 70-year old (approximately) for the most important job in the land – and one that could last eight years. That would be absurd in any other hiring context. But you are brainwashed to believe it is perfectly fine in this case. It isn’t.

Likewise, if you think either Clinton or Trump have good policy ideas, that is evidence that you are brainwashed. As a civilian, you have no idea which policies are better for the economy, or trade agreements, or immigration, or for battling ISIS. But you think you do because you have been brainwashed into believing that voters can know that sort of thing. They can’t. The candidates don’t know either.


Edward Amame


Just a heads up.

Use of triple parentheses is known as an (((echo))), an antisemitic symbol that has been used to highlight the names of individuals of a Jewish background. The practice originated from the far-right blog The Right Stuff; the blog's editors explained that the symbol is meant to symbolize that the historic actions of members of Jewish ethnicity had caused their surnames to "echo throughout history".

I'm sure you wouldn't want people to think you might be an anti-Semite.


Edward Amame

A couple of weeks ago, 538 had Clinton and Trump at 50-50. 538 has HRC way ahead now, post conventions and post-Khan family smearing. My opinion is that Silver is probably close to correct, but that those numbers are not solid at all, that they are still fluid. I don't think opinions will be finally formed until after the debates.


The same arguments that are being made now regarding bad polls are the same ones being made back in 2012. If we dip into the wayback machine ( https://web.archive.org/web/20121031001154/http://www.unskewedpolls.com/">http://www.unskewedpolls.com/">https://web.archive.org/web/20121031001154/http://www.unskewedpolls.com/ ) we can see the unskewed results showing Romney up by 5 to 9 points across the board a week before the election.

Having said that I will readily admit that I may be suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect ). With that admission of the way; I agree with bks on this one.


No need Tyler, but thank you for the suggestion. I'm fine with reality, and even more pleased by your boorish reaction to it.

Actually, I think you are the one needing hope that Clinton keels over. It is the only possible way Trump avoids the worst ass-kicking in modern history. On the other hand, Pence would probably beat him worse, not having Clinton's obvious baggage. See, I'm no Clinton-lover, just a Trump hater, and I am really happy with what I'm seeing.

But what about you? How's it going for you? Events, my dear boy, are certainly not something by which you can be pleased.

Is 3% down an outlier? Yes, looking like.

David Habakkuk

Edward Amame,

Tyler can speak for himself, but I think if you believe that he gives a damn about being considered an anti-Semite you simply have not grasped the way the world has changed.

I write as someone whose culture might well be described as ‘Anglo-Jewish’ – who has had close Jewish friends and colleagues throughout life, and has personal reasons to be very conscious of the immense contribution made by Jewish refugees from the disasters of continental European history to British culture.

However, over the past years I have seen American, and British, foreign policy, essentially hijacked by dotty Zionist agendas – with catastrophic consequences. And I have seen people who tried to resist this process relentlessly smeared as ‘anti-Semites.’

The catastrophic sequence of events thus unleashed has ended up with the candidate for President the vast majority of influential American Jews prefer apparently all-too-happy to risk not simply empowering jihadists but war with Russia in order to destroy the ‘Shia Cresent’ which Zionist folly was responsible for creating.

As this extraordinarily dangerous crisis unfolds, I see even many ‘liberal’ Jews in the United States and Britain with their heads firmly buried, ostrich-like, in the sand.

So I learn from Peter Beinart that it is acceptable, in ‘almost any synagogue’ in America, to explain that you do not believe in God, but not to say that ‘I think what Israel is doing is immoral or I have questions about Zionism.’

Moreover, it seems that in Beinart’s own view, Jews are ‘a people’, who ‘deserve self-determination’, and that ‘to reject that, I do think gets you closer to antisemitism.’

(See http://mondoweiss.net/2016/08/criticize-israel-beinart/ .)

Obviously, in this situation, I am very interested in who, among people holding influence in the United States, and Britain, is Jewish – and what kind of Jew they are.

If people are ‘Beinart’ Jews, then from my point of view, I am happy for them to live where they like, but do not want to see them in positions where they can have any influence on American or British foreign policy.

If Jews want to belong, wholeheartedly, to the American or British ‘peoples’, that is a quite different matter. We have had much very much ‘good counsel’ from such people in the past.

Likewise, if people are caught between conflicting loyalties, I can sympathise and understand that – so long as they also recognise the loyalties others of us have.

However, the hijacking of American and British foreign policy by people who are essentially ‘tribal’ Jews was always bound to produce an antisemitic backlash.

And, unsurprisingly, one of the places one finds this most strongly is among people who, like Tyler, have fought in unwinnable wars, which were ‘cheered on’ by Zionists who had never regarded it as possible or desirable that they or their only children would fight in them.

Get used to it: Tyler is one face of the future.


David Habakkuk

I like Tyler. It is a tribal thing. He is one of my people but the reason I put up with his Trumpian quickness to retaliate is precisely what you have said. He is a voice of the people for whom Trump holds the key to hope in a country turning against them. When he tells you that armed resistance is coming, people should listen to that. Even the MJ crew are beginning to talk about the possibility. pl


That's not really true: there are MANY undecided voters, just that they don't look like the usual undecided voters. Many formerly reliable Republican voters, college educated and affluent whites, especially women, are all over the place from poll to poll. Clinton campaign is working hard to gain their support. We shall see how that pans out.


The shorter version of Taleb is that the predicted probabilities themselves are shrouded in so much uncertainty that they should come with a big margin of error next to them. The predicted probability of Trump win might as well be 30%+/-30% (I'm making this one up). The chance that Trump would lose is very high, but things are so volatile that we don't really know, and the way polls are being reported on discounts massively how weird this election is.


The jumpiness of Silver's predictions is itself a clue about the inherent uncertainty in this election. A lot of data analysis people think that uncertainty is just "errors" that will go away if you run the numbers just right. These people are stuck in 19th century thinking. Sometimes, the uncertainty just exists--people don't know what they want exactly. The most amazing thing to watch in the polls this year has been how wildly the "usual Republican voters" have been jumping around. If Trump can expand the working class white electorate a good bit (which Romney could not but Trump has an excellent chance at) and keep the usual Republicans (which Romney did extremely well, but Trump has obvious trouble with), he wins a narrow victory. This picture has stayed constant for months, even longer (Bob Dole, of all people, was quoted last year making roughly this point!). Whether the "usual Republicans" would ultimately support Trump, however, is the big question raised by all these polls.

Edward Amame

David Habakkuk

What about all those Southern Baptists and Conservative American Christians and christian members of Congress who have so wholeheartedly embraced Bibi and the Israeli right and the Zionist project? Do they get the (((treatment))) too? For all I know, Nate Silver is one of the ranks of the many Jews here in NY who are vehemently opposed to Bibi and neocons. Spare me the lecture. You can get used to that face of the future if you want, I don't have to.

Eric newhill

I'm glad you recognize the meaning of skewed polling samples.

Here's a different interpretation of what it means re; outcomes.

In 2012 the sampling was indeed skewed. Unskewed, Romney was actually ahead. However, it didn't mean anything on election day b/c he didn't excite people. He didn't realize his potential advantage. The people stayed home.

This year we have the same skew issues (there is something inherently more difficult about getting Rs to answer polls, than Ds. A lot of research showing it's true and suggesting why). However, this year is different. The supporters of the guy on the wrong end of the skew, Trump, are highly excited and motivated. It's elect Trump or lose our country. Win through politics or, just maybe, pick up a rifle and try to win through armed conflict. So the true potential that was hidden by the skewed sampling will show up at the polls and Trump will win.

That is another valid way of looking at this thing.

David Habakkuk

Colonel Lang,

I like Tyler, always have.

But there are also other aspects of this, to some of which you point.

In my television producer days, I saw a key part of my job as being, as it were, to try to ensure that different voices were heard – to try to help people to some understanding of the complexities of their own society.

(That was also part of the fun of the job - I get bored out of my mind, talking to people who have the same views as me.)

Sometimes, there may be good grounds for trying to silence people. But a lot of the time, the attempt ends up blowing up in people’s faces: as has happened, massively, with the ‘Powellite’ sections of opinion in this country.

Also, the old-fashioned cynical Tory strand in me ‘kicks in’ here.

If, from a purely Machiavellian point of view, I had decided that Tyler was liable to be an enemy – which, believe me, I have not – I would want a realistic appreciation of what would happen if I got into a conflict with him and his like.

And this would include calculating what my prospects were of, as it were, ‘rubbing him out.’

It was very clear to me, from the start, that he came from a ‘fighting culture’.

If people who do not come from ‘fighting cultures’ choose to pursue courses of action which, in effect, encourage those who do to indulge their taste for combat, they must make some attempt to calculate the likely outcomes.

Having done so, they can decide whether to go ahead and confront, make some attempt to conciliate, or whatever.

When I reads Mike Morrell explaining talking about ‘some number of uneducated white Americans who fear the browning of America’ it seems to me absolutely clear that he is an absolute cretin, who has no idea of the kind of fight into which he may be getting himself.

At heart, I am an old Anglican – my sympathies, in both our Civil War and yours, are with those who tried to prevent polarisation happening and then mend the wounds after the conflict.

So, obviously, I would like to encourage Tyler to be more diplomatic and calculating – and in particular, to grasp how important it is to attempt ‘butcher’s cleaver’ moves.

But: my blood boiled at that remark by Morrell.



Our society is fracturing. The "white trash hillbillies" to use JD Vance are getting to the point of hopelessness. The many Scots-Irish among this segment are fighters. They have fought many a war for America and now see how they're getting shafted. The urban and coastal elites and the "salary" class as the Archdruid calls them who aspire to join the ranks of the elite have only contempt for the hillbilly.

As you note if we get to serious societal conflict with armed rebellion the effete elites will be reliant on state forces peopled by the very folks rebelling. That could get very interesting when the grunts rebel against the "officer" class by refusing to kill their brothers.

If the Borg Queen triumphs in November, the hillbillies that voted for Trump will believe with even more certainty that the system is rigged against them and will become more susceptible to the siren call of a demagogue that violence is the only recourse.


That is a valid point. Traditional college educated Republicans particularly women are vacillating. Do they vote as they normally do or sit out the election or swing to the Democrats will in many ways decide the outcome. Similarly, how traditional union labor Democrats vote will be important too. Its not a given that Hillary has their vote.

David Habakkuk


What frightens the living daylights out of me is that the ‘imbecile clerisy’ which governs us cannot see what is happening.

After the ‘Remain’ victory, my sometime television colleague Peter – now Lord – Mandelson produced a post-mortem in the ‘FT’, entitled ‘How the struggle for Europe was lost.’

It included the revelation that ‘Our pollsters assured us that economic concerns trumped those about immigration.’

The extent of the distrust, particularly outside London, caused by immigration policies which have led to a situation where only 45% of the population of the capital are white Britons, was clearly beyond the capacity of Peter and people like him to imagine.

(See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2950401/How-one-three-Londoners-born-abroad-areas-live-in.html .)

A situation where for many in the country as a whole, London is essentially a foreign city is fraught with very ugly potentialities.


I've always thought (and I think I mentinoned this in a reply to another post before) that the problem is that the society is going "post racial," but in the wrong direction. The plight of the so-called "white trash hillbillies," especially as they are perceived by our social elites, is reminiscent of the Invisible Man, by Ralph Ellison. In Ellison's novel, it's the African Americans, especially those who were poor, that were invisible. But the ranks of the invisible have expanded to include the poor whites as well. In a sense, this is not an accurate characterization--the poor whites of the Appalachia, especially, were a minority that were held in contempt since the days of the Whiskey Rebellion and earlier, were literally targeted for slow extermination via Eugenics movement and forced sterilization, and so forth, and still get tarred with accusations of "white privilege" which most of them had never even seen. But their numbers have been expanding as the social inequality (not just economic inequality) has been increasing exponentially last couple of decades.


The great thing about Tyler is that he is extremely sharp witted, has a great sense of humor, and doesn't respect the conventional sensibilities--a little bit like a George Carlin or even a Chris Rock, except with different political sensibilities. Yes, he is a bit too sharp-tongued and gets a bit carried away sometimes, but, if he didn't, he would not have half the impact he has--sharp, direct language cuts through salubrious nonsense like a samurai sword through tofu, so to speak, and that I respect, a lot.

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