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08 August 2016

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A few thoughts:

-one elite Republicans on TV aren't the same as the Republicans in even Prince William County. TV Republicans get more media time, but they represent a class of appointed Republicans who don't know their place or even if they have a place in the Trump order of things. Trump's only real competitors have been Cruz and Carson both fairly religious guys from movement conservative backgrounds. Recent elections (Romney and McCain) have shown Republicans come home. They are still a shrinking party. As far as Hillary appealing, my belief is the GOP id is dedicated to despising Democrats. They simply can't crossover.

-the permanent GOP political class is awaiting a paycheck Trump isn't producing. They are annoyed.

-voters are partisan, much more partisan than they would care to admit. They know little about issues a day rely on a mix of nostalgia and dog whistles. The ignorance for the voting behavior reinforces their stubborn nature. If they leave now, why didn't they leave then when they should have known how awful the party was?

-The Clinton Democratic Party is also shrinking. There isn't much demand for a faux multicultural neo Republican Party given the GOP already exists. The popular revolt that brought Dean to the head of the DNC reversed the trend as Democrats ran and won on popular issues (imagine that) and took advantage of a new voter boomlet going through the population, but Obama jettisoned this popular revolt as soon as he was elected in favor of Clinton Inc elites (Rahm Emmanuel). Fear, nostalgia, and blind faith (ex. Obama is workin' hard when he doesn't golf) hold the Democrats together hence the apocalyptic language about Trump so early. These factors don't draw in new voters, and Democrats have demonstrated the 2006 and 2008 voters might not be there. Fear worked in 2012 but failed miserably in 2014. The old adage about flies and honey is still true, and Hillary will never be able to offer honey because she is perceived as untrustworthy, anyone entering her orbit is deemed untrustworthy.

Hillary isn't going to soar, and Trump isn't going to collapse. If Hillary was an even tolerable candidate, she would already already be President.

The election can still be won or lost because the margins in states that matter aren't very large and weren't very large in 2012 despite reports of Obama's commanding electoral college victory.

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