It is not clear to me what, if anything, the Russians and Sultan Tayyip have agreed on. The battle east of Aleppo City out on the green plains of the fertile crescent seems a muddle. I don't see evidence of Russian participation, for or against the Turkish invasion of north Syria.
The offended party in the muddle, other than the Kurds themselves, seems to the US. Joe Biden was treated like a dog by Erdogan, and rose to the occasion by licking his master's hand and attempting to order what he evidently thought were other (Kurdish) dogs back to their kennel east of the Euphrates. It seems that the public example from Havana and Riyadh of how to deal with the Obamanites was absorbed at the renovated Sublime Porte. And now Obama plans to meet with Erdogan privately? He plans to do what, talk him down out of the tree? Obama is a city boy. He will find that this quarry has the measure of him.
The Russians are a different matter. They threw Erdogan a bone in lifting Russian tourism restrictions on people who want to go to Turkey. If they try to pressure Russia by not honoring the Montreux Convention on passage of the straits, they risk war with their northern neighbor. If they send their own forces into NW Syria they risk war with the Russian expeditionary force fighting as part of R+6. If they keep sending their surrogates into Idlib Province to be chopped up by R+6 they weaken their hand generally in the Syria struggle.
OTOH, if they seem to cooperate with Russia, the potential gains could be great even if their promises are false.
The sausage making machine at the SW corner of Aleppo City grinds on. If I were in command there I would want to continue that for a while until I estimated that exhaustion of means and will had set in on the unicorn/jihadi side. At that point I would go over to the offensive and pursue, pursue, pursue ...
At the same time, the unicorn/jihadi position seems to be collapsing around Damascus. Interesting. pl
http://www.agsiw.org/gulf-islamists-praise-erdogan-victory-prophesy-revival-of-the-ummah
Brigadier Ali,
I prefer to think of my comments as a possible explanation rather than a defense of US action. Those actions are, as you know, sometimes hard to defend. I agree it certainly is a muddle. Your idea of competing interests within the various levels of the USG is a point well taken. I've seen it myself.
In other news, the head of the Jarabulus Military Council announced that US Special Forces are stationed between his forces and the Turks south of Jarabulus. May God watch over my brothers.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 01 September 2016 at 02:56 PM
Kurds are fools, that is all.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 02 September 2016 at 12:19 PM
I would say you are correct in that many of them are foolish for fighting among themselves at the bidding of the the Turks, the Iranians, and the Arabs. Unfortunately they are also divided by language and religion so unity is light years away if ever.
But I would hesitate before calling 40 million people 'fools'.
Posted by: mike | 02 September 2016 at 05:27 PM
Ask any Kurd in Sanandaj or Kermanshah to clarify the manner in which they are different than "Iranians"?
He or she will not be able to articulate any coherent response.
Yet, every time the central government has weakened, the gun has come out in Kurdish areas.
What is the point, one has to ask?
Mind you, I am also unsympathetic to the Basques, the Catalans (who foolishly started the Civil War in Spain, just like South Carolinians did the same in US), the Sikhs etc.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 03 September 2016 at 01:30 PM