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01 August 2016

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Herb

I agree with much of this outlook, primarily on foreign policy.

Clinton more than a pragmatist. She is not even really a leader, except in the sense of she knows how to ride a wave she hasn't created. Unlike her husband or Obama, she doesn't work by calling forth a wave, by creating a movement in others. Instead, she listens to what others want to do, and puts herself in the position to steer in front of and direct it. I believe she listened to Sanders (and Trump voters) and saw there was significant opposition to foreign trade treaties. She then changed her position (which she only had in the first place because it was Obama's baby). Same thing with college tuition. Same with minimum wage. Same with opiate addiction. She didn't come up with these ideas, others did.

Granted, these all fall in with her existing, very liberal internal compass. Her biggest supporter is Al Franken. That should be instructive.

And the same thing is going to happen on foreign policy. The public is tired of war. Tired of foreign entanglements. This is from Trump voters as well as Sanders voters. She will be extremely cautious. But again, her internal compass is R2P, it is also very pro-Israel. That goes back to Rwanda and to being senator from New York. I'm not sure how Netanyahu has affected the Israel calculus, but regarding R2P, she will look for applications, but she is a very cautious, calculating, and ruthless person.

All that said, she is in many ways also too cautious. Paranoid. Prone to parsing and dodging and "leaving options open". Therefore, I think she will be indecisive in some situations and other leaders (both internal and external to the US) will capitalize on that trait. It sounds like she is also a "pleaser" as in, the last person who sees her, wins.

These attributes are why her presidency will likely be a pragmatic one, but also, a reactive one. What she is able to accomplish is going to be directly related to the composition of the House and Senate. More so with her presidency than any other in the last 50 years.

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