« Harper on the 28 pages. | Main | "Clinton Cash" a documentary »

01 August 2016

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Freudenschade

Col.,

Those are the important questions: senate control? House control? Who is in the cabinet?

With Clinton we have some clues on the cabinet. With Trump, I'm not sure we know who will be in the cabinet, or exactly how the administration will be run (if the "VP will run domestic and foreign policy" stories are to be believed).

steve

No way the Dems take back the House. Surprised if they even take back the Senate. Therefore I just don't see her doing very much at all. I expect at least one more opening on SCOTUS and I expect that plus the current seat will remain unfilled.

Steve

Fred

Africa:
Launches an attempt to "bring back our girls" with a significant number of troops committed to fight Boko Haram in Nigeria. Bill Clinton gives speech on human rights in Abuja after major "gift" to CGI. These are in no way connected.
Commits troops to support of one faction in Libya to "provide stability".
Europe:
Gives speeches supporting Angela Merkel's continued immigration policies.
Commits to forward deployment of troops in Poland, Latvia and Estonia. Stations carrier group in the Baltic.
Turkey - agrees to revoke the green card of Fethullah Gulen causing him to seek asylum in Canada.
Russia - Demands "Putin" stop the support of rebels in Donbass and to the "barrel bomber" Assad (provided the R+6 hasn't crushed ISIS in Syria by January 20th).
Asia: continues escalation with China over their activities in the South China Sea. Instructs USN to make repeated right of passage voyages through China's self proclaimed economic exclusion zone.

Domestically: Nominates judge Goodwin Liu to USSC. Calls for a new "assault" weapons ban after first shooting incident.
Submits a bill granting a "path to citizenship" for illegals already present in the US. Commits the US to accept 250,000 "refugees". Signs new "modified" TPP agreement. proposes the College and University bail out bill (free college for all!).
Other domestic anecdotes. Debbie Wasserman Shultz loses reelection bid. Barack and Michelle named to the board of the CGI. Prominent members of BLM are given positions within the Clinton Administration to improve "diversity".

kao_hsien_chih

The most likely outcome after this election, even with a Clinton victory, will feature a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.

First contentious order of business will be filling Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court. Since the filibuster for judicial appointments is (and possibly, filibuster in general) is effectively dead, we will see a Clinton appointee to the Supreme Court being pushed through with the barest majority, almost certainly with the invocation of the cloture by a bare majority even for Supreme Court nominees being made official.

Beyond this, probably not a whole lot on the domestic front. Republicans in the House will try to hold some hearing or that as soon as the Clinton administration comes into office. Whether they will have much merit, who knows? But whatever they are, they will be dismissed as partisan follies by all the "serious people," and, the truth be told, probably would be designed only to score partisan points rather than dig up the truth. But the gridlock will ensure that nothing useful will be done.

On the foreign front, I suspect that the stance towards Syria, in particular, will become more overtly pro-interventionist. I am curious where Turkey is headed, in this context, and what the Clinton response would be, for each possible contingency. The alignment between US and Japan, possibly with various SE Asians joining in, will become even closer, but what form this will take I cannot speculate. I do not believe Clinton administration will be able to attempt anything else "obvious" over the first 6 months, though. Domestic politics will be messy and the political scores HRC can score abroad will be limited.

Mark Kolmar

Republicans are likely to keep the House. Democrats are unlikely to have enough majority in the Senate to act on large initiatives, not in the first six months.

One or two Supreme Court justices leave. The Senate is unable to confirm replacements during this time.

Having watched her since the Clintons came into the national arena, Hillary Clinton's broadest guiding principle looks like incremental pragmatism funneled through wholesale customer service, with all of the practiced mush and malleability. Hillary Clinton brings the hazards of too many of the best intentions at once. This will reflect in a muddled public message about the administration's priorities.

She would come into office without a strong mandate, and she would be likely to face a deadlocked congress on most major issues. Possibly, criminal justice reform package could begin to take shape in the first six months.

Foreign policy would continue along the much the same line, while Clinton may take some actions such as drone strikes, arms sales, or humanitarian support of some kind where Obama was more restrained or reluctant.

turcopolier

All
A number of you chose to go completely OT and discuss Trump in this thread and I have deleted your comments. pl

turcopolier

FB Ali

IMO Obama has now stacked the JCS and major commands with Keitel types who will not resist anything. pl

LondonBob

Her track record shows her to be anything but cautious, Obama was the break on her more crazy foreign policy stances. I think Syria would be the place to watch with increased support for the rebels, although no no fly zone. The main ME project to be the creation of a Kurdish state carved out of Syria, Iraq and Iran. The position of Turkey being the main question mark there. A step up in the hybrid war against Russia under the control of Michele Flournoy and Victoria Nuland, focusing upon information war, economic war and attempts to restart the conflict in the Donbass.

Ultimately I expect a HRC Presidency would accelerate US decline through increased immigration, accelerated economic weakness and splits with allies. I would anticipate some form of further social and political instability with increasing crime, police shootings and terrorist attacks, perhaps along the lines of the last years of the apartheid state in South Africa. There is very little appetite in Europe for further ME and EE adventures and I expect an increased move towards an independent European stance engaged with Russia and China.

Amir

She (as she had already demonstrated in the past: http://www.commondreams.org/views/2016/03/08/hillary-clintons-state-department-armed-saudi-arabia-teeth) will increase her support for Saudi's attack on Yemen. In particular she instructs her subordinates to sets up a clandestine corridor, with the help of Al Saud, to bring over material and DAESH men to invade Yemen's heartland.

Amir

There is one difference however, she has and XX while the other three had XY chromosomes. That is obviously a world shattering improvement, especially for people on the receiving end of it.

Amir

I think you assertion that a Defeatoria Nuland will attempt to instigate a color revolution in Iran is spot on. At least the other side is convinced that this will be the case. My projection will be that if Clinton comes to power, there is ZERO chance of improvement in diplomatic relations with Iran and a GREAT chance of a hot conflict and obviously a certainty that at the least the Cold Confrontation will continue.

Amir

She is going to talk the talk of citizenship pathway and continue in expelling more illegal immigrants while at the same time destabilizing Central and probably South America, thus insuring more influx of those destitute human beings. The net effect is going to be that the total number of illegals will increase in USA.

In regards to her healthcare "reform": under guise of Public Option, she will syphon off more government money (meaning our taxes) to private interest groups (insurance companies and hospital conglomerates) without any oversight about the return on investment. In other words, continuation of capitalism for plebs and socialism for the elite.

Amir

Let's hope so but the accumulation of Neo-lib-cons around her does not bode well.

Lars

The obvious answer is that the current system does not work very well and has not for quite some time. We also have about 11 million people living here who are in legal limbo. That will require a pragmatic solution. Of course that will require putting ideological concerns aside and arrive at a comprehensive end. Without resorting to useless labels.

Babak Makkinejad

" Do not try to recreate the world in your own image"...

They did exactly that and they failed miserably and now they have found religion.

Bandolero

I believe POTUS HRC will in her first six months announce a shift in foreign policy to strengthen alliances with "traditional US allies" in ME, namely Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and to confront "evil dictators" for the sake of promoting human rights, first of all Assad, Khamenei and Putin.

The most important change will be that POTUS HRC orders her SecDef Michèle Flournoy to unilaterally change the deconflictation agreement with Russia in Syria. Clinton will order the US military to target "Assad forces" and "Iranian terrorist assets like Hezbollah" to break sieges imposed on rebel held territories and thereby "prevent genocide" in Syria. To improve relations with Turkey, POTUS HRC will demand from the US-backed SDF/YPG that they split from Russia and the PKK and subordinate themselves to the command of the FSA and the Saudi-backed High Negotiation Committe. From Turkey POTUS HRC will demand in exchange for her help in relieving Turkeys pain with the PKK that Turkey stops supporting "terrorist Hamas."

POTUS HRC will also threaten to shoot down Russian planes over Syria should Russia "continue to attack moderate US-backed" jihadis.

Regarding Iraq HRC will order the US military to strenghten Barzani and the KRG to simoultanously confront IS and Iranian influence in Iraq. POTUS HRC will order the CIA to covertly fund and arm "Sunni tribal forces" in Anbar and Nineveh to help them liberating themselves from IS and resist the supremacy of Iranian backed militias.

Regarding Yemen POTUS HRC will order the US military to share target intelligence with the Saudis and to assist the Saudis in trying to bomb Houthi/Saleh forces into submission.

Regarding Ukraine POTUS HRC will order to better finance the government and to deliver more military aid to the government of Ukraine so it will be better able to confront Russia and Novorossia militias in Donbass.

At the end of her first months POTUS HRC will be "shocked" - truely shocked - that Shia militias in Iraq restart targeting and killing US forces in Iraq, in what they say to be retaliation for POTUS HRC bombing of resistance forces in Syria. POTUS HRC will be confronted with the difficult decision to have US troops leaving Iraq or greatly increasing their numbers to levels similar to the "surge" under GWB. But POTUS HRC withers and does give neither order. While POTUS HRC hopes to be able to sit it out, more and more US forces are being killed in Iraq in retaliation for US bombings of Syrian government forces and their allies. A similar bad surprise POTUS HRC gets from the SDF/YPG who, instead of braking with Russia and the PKK, announce to enhance cooperation with Russia and break with the US, thus turning from proxy to enemy. POTUS HRC therefore orders the US military to help Turkey confronting the "traitorous" YPG. Putin is not impressed with POTUS HRCs threats and orders the Russian forces to speed up destroying US-backed terrorists in Syria, and enhanced military help to the forces of Novorossiya. Khamenei orders voluntary mobilization for Syria to counter POTUS HRCs increased efforts to oust Assad.

In result, war theaters in both Syria and Iraq get hotter than ever before in the first six months of HRC being POTUS. Neither side seems to be close to victory. However, both the US and Russian forces in Syria largely target each others proxy forces, but still narrowly avoid to shoot on each other directly.

michael brenner

Agreed. For 3 reasons: dominant interests will remain dominant; Republican control of obstructionist Congress; abroad - she'll continue to fulminate pointlessly about Russia, and in the Middle East has no more clue what to do than has Obama

Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg

HRC will push for the TTIP, but with some cosmetic wording about 'worker safety' as a sop to those she reluctantly changed her earlier full throated support to win over.

Surrounded by people like Breedlove, Flournoy, Nuland and now William Kristol and that crew, HRC's administration will become an even seedier and more corrupt incarnation of the Bush II regime. New Democrats can never be tough enough of 'defense' and we might have to buckle on our safety belts if aggressive meddling in eastern Europe or the Near East runs afoul of Russia. I can see an incident in Syria in which US and Russian commandos get into a firefight and markets tank with the expectation of the End of the World.

LJ

Walrus (Get revenge on enemies): Pencil that one in.

Chris Chuba on causing maximal pain to Putin and street creds: that one's penciled in too.

There are rumors (naturally) of an offensive against the Donbass starting August 10-12. Yawn. Except that could well provide the perfect wedge issue against Trump who wants to make nice with the RF. "The Russians are coming."

Does she have the kind of network that could order Poroshenko to in turn order the attack. My guess? Absolutely. She's in the club now. Remember "the Aspens are all connected." (From Scooter Libby to Judith Miller.

bth

Hillary wins though third party candidates score 15% of vote.

All contested House, Senate and Governorships go Republican. Republican majority in Congress widens.

Hillary proposes Obama for Supreme Court. After great debate he is approved.

Budget and tax crisis in April 2017 since Congress did not fund war supplemental to full term. Budget crisis hits and lasts for 3 months in 2017.

Major legislative initiatives die, then are revisited with very narrow focus after Bill Clinton meets with McConnell. Narrow wins begin to pile up. $12.50 minimum wage. Opioid addiction legislation passes. Worker retraining. Infrastructure programs get funding.

Personal relations between Hillary and Erdogan start bad and end worse. Turkey opts to withdraw from Nato.

North Korea challenges Hillary right away followed by China shoot down of Japanese drones over contested territory. Trade deals are DOA. Chinese communist party steps up crackdown on human rights advocates. The US responds to new cyber attacks by breaking down the great firewall of china.

Castro brothers pass away. Few outside Cuba notice.

US begins regime change intervention in Venezuela.

US agrees to move F16 and F18A production lines to India.

Assange is arrested and extradited.

Boeing commercial airline deal with Iran is approved though relations remain poor.

Italian banking system collapses. Southern Europe goes into recession.

Oil prices drift to mid $30s. US introduces oil import tax with funds used for domestic renewable energy production. Pipeline deal within the US approved in a political master deal.

Attorney general carries over from Obama to Clinton administration.

US leaves Syria pretty much alone with exception of continued support for the Kurds. Russia, Assad and Iran secure western Syria but fail to make major inroads into IS eastern territories.

Iraq government with intense US support recaptures all IS held cities and towns in 2017 but Sadr starts making good on promise to attack US troops as he realizes that US airbases are more than temporary. Rural Sunni land remains IS controlled and convoy ambushes return. Iraqi government does not fund reconstruction in formal IS areas.

Pelosi retires. Ryan loses seat.

crf

I predict nothing will happen foreign policy-wise for at least a year into Clinton's term. Foreign policy has been nothing but a source of public discontent for most Presidents. Clinton is not stupid, and she will grasp that lesson. Foreign policy is where Obama went to wallow after his domestic agenda largely petered out in 2010.

Clinton is also ruthless. The Republicans are very likely to be demoralized, divided, and defenestrating anyone associated with Trump. Clinton is going to provoke political fights with the Republicans at the earliest opportunity. If the Democrats control the Senate, she will work to kill the filibuster at the earliest opportunity, even if the Democrats do not control the house.

The Twisted Genius

I find it both unfortunate and fortunate that Degringolade's prediction of SSDD is most likely correct. Unfortunate in that not much will be solved unless external conditions force our political system to come up with a solution. Kicking the can down the road and vigorous blocking of all Legislative and Executive initiatives will remain the norm. Fortunate that our system of checks and balances remains intact and will also stymie the worst and craziest of and Legislative and Executive initiatives. Any change will be incremental, especially in the first six months.

The Republican Party, which will continue to control the House, will double down on it's policy of eight years ago to do everything in it's power to see that the new Democratic President will fail in everything she tries to do. If this enforced governmental sclerosis keeps us from waltzing into a major war, that's fine with me.

Aristonicus

welchverb [ I ] uk ​ /weltʃ/ /welʃ/ us ​ /weltʃ/ /welʃ/ also welsh informal disapproving

to avoid doing something you have promised to do, especially not to pay a debt:
He's never welched on a debt - he always pays up.

rjj

"Fortunate that our system of checks and balances remains intact and will also stymie the worst and craziest of and Legislative and Executive initiatives."

If you doing that distance viewing thing again, you may want to double check your time coordinates.

steve

While the basically similar policies of Bubba, Dubya, and Obama will be continued as the status-quo under Clinton, the economic lot of the American public will continue to deteriorate, as it has for at least the past 25 years.

At some point, whether it occurs under Clinton or a subsequent president, the breaking point will be reached where the status-quo will no lonbger be capable of papering over our economic, social, and cultural disasters.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

October 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
        1 2 3
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Blog powered by Typepad