Clinton Adminstration's First Six Months

Rather than try to hold a War Gaming exercise on the future history of a Hillary Clinton Administration's first six month at home and abroad, I ask those interested to give me their forecasts as comments below. 

This will be followed by a similar exercise concerning a Trump Administration.  pl

Comments

[Peter Reichard]

Liberation of Aleppo and general collapse of Isis and other Syrian rebels presents HRC with a fait accompli and frustrates her intentions of intervention. Economic downturn focuses her attention away from foreign policy. We and the world dodge a bullet.

[João Carlos]

She will do a preemptive atack to China because that south china sea isles. But that is too my forecast for Trump.

Yes, welcome to Third War!

[Tyler]

Civil war.

[Degringolade]

The first six months of Clinton 2.0 huh?

I really think that nothing whatsoever will change.

The last three presidents have been indistinguishable in their attitude concerning the use of force, their kowtowing to the wealthy, their contempt for anything other than “the Elite” (a category that has been shrinking), and their sneering attitudes toward the bulk of the population.

I wish it wasn't true, but Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and now Hillary Clinton were/are/will serve the same constituency, carrying the same Neoconservative foreign policy mindset, and the same neoliberal economic weltanschauung.

What Hillary represents is more of the same. More color revolutions, more internal controls, more wealth disparity.

She represents the status quo in every way.

Nothing will change.......

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

As an outsider , I won't say much about domestic policy but as far as the foreign policy: Podesta will bring in the bipartisan chicken hawks like Deniis Ross, jeffrey Feltmann, and Victoria Nuland in the cabinet.

Wait for the "funding" for another uprising in Iran- similar to the Green revolution that went pffffttt , and most probably in Qatar (at the behest of the chihuahua). Also watch out Latin America !!!

Her first trip overseas will be to Israel though she may spend only 6 hours in Ottawa to follow the custom or may be not!!!

[Bill Herschel]

Overtly sending American troops to Ukraine and Syria. As completely insane as that may sound, if it is on the to-do list of her backers and would solidify her standing with them, one can easily assume that comes before any other consideration. James Simon contributed $4,000,000 to her campaign. If he wants troops in Ukraine and Syria, there is every reason to believe he will get them. That's Democracy in action according to the Supreme Court of the United States (Citizens United).

[Allen Thomson]

Depends on how long her coattails are.

If she brings along both House and Senate to the Democrats, then restocking the SCOTUS, reshuffling the Cabinet plus augmenting ACA with a public option, plus emigration reform in the direction of a legalization path.

If just the Senate, then SCOTUS plus Cabinet moves.

If no coattails, then Cabinet plus executive orders in the Obama pattern. SCOTUS here is an interesting problem, since at least a couple of Justices are unlikely to last until 2020 and a Republican Senate doesn't seem likely to confirm any Hillary nomination. So a severely diminished bench for years or (gasp!) a White House - Senate deal on somebody?

[RenegadePrimate]

Domestic front:

- Continue Obamarism (status quo adjusted marginally for a coalition of groups who commonly oppose the historical socio-political US orientation).
- Manage fallout from an election framed by both sides (and possibly accurately in many instances) as an apocalyptic struggle. Carl Schmitt distinguished "politics" (first order bickering within shared parameters) with "the political" (fundamental disposition of the political order). Since this election in part has breached that second order question, we could see a permanent decline in the level of political and civil order. I'll just leave this here: https://20committee.com/2015/03/02/yugoslavias-warning-to-america/

Foreign Affairs

Basic goal is to retrench the Davos Global Empire aka the 'liberal world order'.

1. Enforce the Saudi/Israeli ME line of policy fanatically (Fellow harpy hawk Theresa May will help out). Massive support for anti Houthi rebels in Yemen, Kurds in Syria (as the FSA 'rebels' make for increasingly convincing propaganda, and they may be greatly declined by the time she takes office).
2. Incite 'allies' in the Pacific against China.
3. Attempt to tighten flagging EU support for sanctions against Russia. Kiev receives a fresh tranche of war cash under the guise of 'aid', enabling renewed attacks in the Donbass with the hope it will drag Russia directly into the conflict. This will serve three goals (a) turn Donbass into a mini Afghanistan for Russia. (b) Distract Russian attention from Syria. (c) Ensure a permanent coldwar, thus preventing rapprochement between Germany and Russia for years.

[rakesh]

SCOTUS may end up with recess appointments - so neither side will have long term lock
Foreign entanglements will be reduced only out of domestic imperative, she will need Sanders coalition to govern , economy will need a jolt and that is going to preclude more wars.

[gowithit]

With Clinton winning the election, Obama will pull his "moderate" SCOTUS nomination. Upon taking office, Clinton will nominate one likely more "progressive". If Senate goes back into Dem control, the nomination to go thru. If Repubs retain Senate, then 50/50 if she can get it thru--again, the Repubs seen as "Obstructionists". Biden mentioned this pass weekend that he might seek further "office". Despite his age,it would not be unlikely for Clinton to consider him for SCOTUS--Repub Senators wud have a difficult time saying "NO!"

[robt willmann]

To help Hillary get into office, Obama may be working on a public version of an "October Surprise" this year -- taking back Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria--

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/iraq-offensive-2016-mosul-islamic-state-isis-isil-obama-foreign-policy-kurdish-214121

This will then make easier Hillary's probable desire to continue to meddle in Iraq and to prevent the Syrian government under Assad from taking all of Syria back. The more U.S. presence in eastern Syria there is, the easier it will be to keep Assad and R+6 from handling that area.

There was the October Surprise of 1980, engineered by Republicans, to prevent Jimmy Carter from getting the hostages out of Iran before the election of 1980. Robert Parry has done a lot of work on that October event--

https://consortiumnews.com/2016/04/06/bush-41s-october-surprise-denials/

[eakens]

The chance of Biden making it onto the SCOTUS is exactly zero. He does not have the mental capacity for it.

[johnf]

I'm not sure if Theresa May will follow her.

It was Cameron and Osborne who were the Blair-ite neo-cons. She is a pragmatist and realist who cautiously does her sums before making any decision. Her Chief of Staff, Nick Timothy, to whom she is very close in both domestic policy (he is a "Tory" of the Joseph Chamberlain/win the working classes with jobs and social services type) and in foreign affairs is an outspoken "realist", non-interventionist opponent of all neo-connery.

This is Timothy two months ago:

"“So if – in addition to the many individual policy, governmental and operational lessons there are to be learned – there is a single, overriding lesson from Iraq, it is surely that we need to rediscover the principles of a traditional, realist, conservative foreign policy. Value stability. Respect sovereignty. Do not make foreign policy part of an ideological crusade. Do not try to recreate the world in your own image. Do not, however much you might disapprove of a dictator’s abuse of human rights, use that as a pretext for regime change. Always act on the basis of the national interest. Above all, understand the risk involved when things change in complex and volatile states.” – May 31."

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/the-wit-and-wisdom-of-nick-timothy-3-no-more-neo-cons-please.html

[Chris Chuba]

Putin
HRC will do at least one thing to try to cause maximal damage to Putin, 1. to contrast herself from Trump, 2. to get even for the non-existent affront regarding the reset button. I strongly suspect that it will include sending some really bad gear to the Ukrainians and more U.S. trainers.

Syria
The first 6 mo's is her window of opportunity to destroy Syria, turn it into another Libya, and possibly get us into a conflict with the Russians. If she waits too long, things will be so obviously stable she will have to accept the Russian solution. 80% chance that she will do something really bad, something as little as giving the rebels really good equipment including MANPADS to something as severe as launching cruise missiles. She will make a lot of noise in any case. Keep the Tylenol handy.

China
Oddly enough, I think that China will remain a secondary issue. We might continue to cruise around the South China sea but be careful not to go beyond that. She does not have the personal animus hear that she has for Putin and we do too much business with China and we need them to pressure N. Korea.

Perhaps some other gesture to separate herself from her predecessor like increase aid to Israel or as someone else suggested, go psycho on the Yemeni's to mollify the Saudi's. Her soul is dark, I don't think the harm being done to civilians there for no reason bothers her in the least.

She will do something aggressive to try to get some street creds, at least this is how I think her mind works. She probably would favor more indirect, aggressive covert means, heavy arming of 3rd parties.

[RenegadePrimate]

Interesting. That's some good context.

I'd append this point though. We've heard these overtures before. Obama was supposed to be about peace and stability...but in many ways he's been worse than Bush.

When push comes to shove, will she stand by those principles? I don't trust those sentiments coming from anyone other than a real outsider candidate, like Trump.

[gowithit]

Since when is "mental capacity" a requirement? The Repubs gave the Court Thomas! lol

[steveg]

First six months? As was said by most in RVN
"Same Same Water Buffalo" An apt description
of the "occupant" if nothing else.

[morongobill]

Yeah, who will he plagiarize once in the robes?

[Edward Amame]

First thing will be filling Scalia's seat on the SCOTUS.

Clinton's gonna try to find common ground with the other side. That's her style. There might be some kind of attempt at a big crime bill, and/or infrastructure.

There might even be a public option trial balloon as health insurance industry consolidation has given them more power than the medical industry likes and it's hit hospitals' bottom lines and forced them to consolidate too. The medical industrial complex may not be so averse anymore to having the public option provide needed health insurance competition.

FP will be mostly more of the same for first six months.

[Edward Amame]

I think she'll try to nominate someone that the GOP leadership isn't going to object to. She will try to work with the other side, which is I suspect is why Sanders' supporters don't trust her.

[PeterHug]

Disagree with possibility of Biden on SC - although Obama certainly would be a possible nomination (I rather think that's not something he would want, though).

But if Clinton wins, expect several openings on the SC as a number of the current Justices take the opportunity to leave...particularly if the Democrats take control of the Senate.

[different clue]

rakesh,

I believe some Senators recently discovered the trick of sending one lone Senator into the Senate, gavelling it "into" session, spending five minutes determining that he/she was the only Senator in the Chamber, and gavelling the Senate back "out" of session again. That way, no recess is declared and no recess appointments are possible.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Hillary Clinton in the first six months will purge any Realists left in the Senior Executive Service. Establish a no fly zone over Kurdistan. Continue Austerity. Arm Ukraine and the Baltic States. Strengthen the hybrid war against the Kremlin. Let Turkey fall apart. Continue to do nothing about climate change or health care. Kiss the toes of Bibi Netanyahu.

[Eric Newhill]

Clinton will suffer a massive physical and mental health crisis (possibly fatal) and Kaine will become POTUS. This is not a conspiracy theory based prediction. It is, rather, based on my assessment of how she looks and acts currently and the trend over the past few years.

What will Kaine do? I don't know, but I sense he will tread cautiously as he won't really have a mandate from The People - and I think he is middle of the road kinda guy anyhow.

[Swami]

My prediction for her first six months?

+ Heads explode on the right. That is, those heads that have not already exploded when she wins in November.

+ Based on his vow from Obama's first term, McConnell affirms he will do everything to make her a one-term President. Perhaps he'll have better luck this time.

+ Republicans will likely hold on to the House, so I think there will be at least 6 futile votes to repeal Obamacare

+ McConnell and Ryan try to walk back their shameful support of Trump, a man who cannot respect the valor of people in the military or the sacrifice of military families

+ Two Supreme Court Justices announce their retirement, and replacements are confirmed by a Democratic Senate (I'm assuming Merrick Garland will be confirmed post-election in Obama's term)

+ Clinton tries to improve the lives of ordinary people but is blocked by Republicans in Congress, which lays the foundation for the destruction of their Party