Sic Semper Tyrannis

"Elections By the Numbers" By Larry Johnson

How are people getting their news? A fair question. Let me lay some hard numbers on you:

Total USA Population as of 2016: 324 million

How many people are watching national news on ABC, CBS and NBC?

(Data from 2014):

Network news viewers are declining in unprecedented rates, from an average of 48 million nightly network news viewers in 1985 to 24.5 million in 2013, according to Pew Research analysis of Nielsen Media Research data.

Young people aged 18-29 are the least likely to watch network news regularly (only 11 percent did so in 2012), and 49 percent of people in this age group say they never watch the news.

How Many People Watch FOX NEWS, MSNBC and CNN on Average?

Overall, Fox News averaged 2 million total viewers and 347,000 in the demo during primetime, winning both categories. MSNBC averaged 1.13 million total viewers, while CNN trailed with 844,000 total viewers.

How Many People Listen to Rush Limbaugh? 13.25 million

How about newspapers and news magazines? Tough to get good numbers on this but we do know that the number of newspapers has declined significantly. Even worse news for magazines like Time, Newsweek and US News and World Report. The biggest tell is to count the number of reporters who have lost their jobs and are working in other fields. It has been a bloodbath on that front.

There has been an explosion on the digital front but that is truly chaotic and is far more fragmented. The fragmentation aspect is the key. 25 years ago there was a core of news publications that provided cultural unity of sorts and helped create a public consensus. That’s no longer the case. The rapid spread of social media has created the equivalent of electronic lynchings. There is no consensus and their is no control. I suppose this is both good and bad.

My broader point is that the model for judging and predicting Presidential elections has changed significantly. And it is very apparent in this year’s contest, as the Wall Street Journal recently noted:

Of the two candidate, Mr. Trump has the largest following on social media — with 10.3 million Twitter followers and 9.9 million Facebook likes, compared to Mrs. Clinton’s 7.78 million followers and 4.8 likes.

Mr. Trump also routinely is mentioned more on social media, though that isn’t always a good thing.

“His supporters absolutely love him and his opponents absolutely dislike him,” said Kellan Terry, political analyst at Brandwatch, a social media data company.

Mr. Trump’s account shows his personality more so than more so than Mrs. Clinton’s shows hers, as he tweets, or dictates to someone else, a majority of the tweets. On Tuesday, a few minutes before former President Bill Clinton took the stage at the Democratic National Convention, Mr. Trump tweeted, “No matter what Bill Clinton says and no matter how well he says it, the phony media will exclaim it to be incredible. Highly overrated!”

We are dealing with some unknowns here and Trump appears to have a better handle on that unknown than does Hillary.

When you reflect on how much information is delivered by the much maligned “Lame” Stream Media you should be shocked at its demise. It is not the behemoth it was in the 70s and thru the mid-80s. In 1985 roughly 25% of all Americans watched the evening news on CBS, ABC and NBC.

In 2016 only 8% of all Americans get their evening news from CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN and FOX. That helps explain the ignorance of the American public. Think of this fact–if you are watching a traditional news cast on TV you are a dinosaur.

The Russians and Sultan Tayyip?

 

It is not clear to me what, if anything, the Russians and Sultan Tayyip have agreed on.  The battle east of Aleppo City out on the green plains of the fertile crescent seems a muddle.  I don't see evidence of Russian participation, for or against the Turkish invasion of north Syria.

The offended party in the muddle, other than the Kurds themselves, seems to the US.  Joe Biden was treated like a dog by Erdogan, and rose to the occasion by licking his master's hand and attempting to order what he evidently thought were other (Kurdish) dogs back to their kennel east of the Euphrates.  It seems that the public example from Havana and Riyadh of how to deal with the Obamanites was absorbed at the renovated Sublime Porte.   And now Obama plans to meet with Erdogan privately?  He plans to do what, talk him down out of the tree?  Obama is a city boy.  He will find that this quarry has the measure of him. 

The Russians are a different matter.  They threw Erdogan a bone in lifting Russian tourism restrictions on people who want to go to Turkey.  If they try to pressure Russia by not honoring the Montreux Convention on passage of the straits, they risk war with their northern neighbor.  If they send their own forces into NW Syria they risk war with the Russian expeditionary force fighting as part of R+6.  If they keep sending their surrogates into Idlib Province to be chopped up by R+6 they weaken their hand generally in the Syria struggle.

OTOH, if they seem to cooperate with Russia, the potential gains could be great even if their promises are false. 

The sausage making machine at the SW corner of Aleppo City grinds on.  If I were in command there I would want to continue that for a while until I estimated that exhaustion of means and will had set in on the unicorn/jihadi side.  At that point I would go over to the offensive and pursue, pursue, pursue ... 

At the same time, the unicorn/jihadi position seems to be collapsing around Damascus.  Interesting.  pl         

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21689871-under-recep-tayip-erdogan-and-his-ak-party-turkey-has-become-richer-and-more-confident

http://www.agsiw.org/gulf-islamists-praise-erdogan-victory-prophesy-revival-of-the-ummah

Of Quarterbacks and Colonial Marines - TTG

No refuge could save the hireling and slave

From the terror of flight or the gloom of the grave,

And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave

O’er the land of the free and the home of the brave.

These are the last four lines of the third verse of our national anthem. The same anthem that Colin Kaepernick will no longer stand for. He says he’s protesting the treatment of blacks in America. I have no idea if he is aware of these lines or their meaning. I only became aware of this through an article appearing in “The Intercept” yesterday. The fact that run away slaves joined the British to fight against their former American owners clearly chapped Francis Scott Key’s ass. The irritation from that chapped ass made its way into what became our national anthem.

Today I found an interesting article about this chapter in our history written by an Army chaplain. Naturally, as a chaplain, he turned it into a sermon… and a far too simplistic one at that. Nevertheless, the article is still interesting and informative.

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On May 30, 1814, the Corps of Colonial Marines, a British force consisting of freed slaves, made their first amphibious landing of the War in 1812. Assaulting an artillery battery along Virginia’s eastern shore through a hail of enemy fire, the Colonial Marines performed better than expected.

“Though one of them was shot and died instantly in the front of the others,” British Rear Adm. George Cockburn wrote. “It did not daunt or check the others in the least but on the contrary animated them to seek revenge.”

In the end, they helped capture the battery and pursued their enemy into the woods before being called back to their landing craft and sailing to their base on Tangier Island.

I love to read history and I love to root for the Americans even when I am reading about a historical figure from another nation. However, in the case of the Corps of Colonial Marines I find myself not rooting for the Americans, but for their invading enemy, the British. This is because of two things that set the Colonial Marines apart in history.

The first, the Corps of Colonial Marines were made up of freed African American men who escaped slavery, then fought against their former masters alongside the Royal Marines. The second reason, they fought so well that by June 1814, Cockburn came to prefer the Colonial Marines to his own Royal Marines, finding them stronger and less likely to desert. The Colonial Marines also provided invaluable intelligence, guiding the British through the backwoods and waters with more intimate knowledge than their former masters. Yet, what Cockburn appreciated the most about the Colonial Marines was the incredible fear they inspired in the Americans.

Although they were of African descent and formerly enslaved, the British gave the Colonial Marines the same training, uniforms, pay, and pensions as the Royal Marines. A very interesting part of the story is the Colonial Marines not only exposed the hypocrisies of American liberty, but the British provided proof, when treated equally, these men could perform equally or better than their Caucasian counterparts.

“Do to others as you would like them to do to you,” the Bible recorded these famous words of Jesus, hundreds of years earlier.

The American slave owners neglected to follow this simple teaching, which drove the enslaved men to join the British. On the other hand, the British, who did follow this teaching, were blessed with powerful allies who helped them fight their way to Washington. The moral of this story is not only will you lose friends by mistreating them, but also when you treat people the way that you would like to be treated; you may gain friends who will stand by your side.

Army Chaplain (CPT) ROB HOSKINS, 
JTF-GTMO Chaplain

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I have no doubt Kaepernick is sincere about his actions and his reasons for those actions. I am glad the NFL and his coach have stood by his right to take those actions. He must also stand by the consequences of those actions. But I also fully understand the reactions of many who are burning his jersey and now consider him a spoiled, ungrateful son of a bitch. I don’t follow football, but I’m happy that Alex Ovechkin, Russian to his core, respectfully stands during the playing of “The Star-Spangled Banner” at a Caps game in Verizon Center. I am pleased and proud that I am now authorized to render a hand salute during the playing of “The Star-Spangled Banner” at that same Caps game at Verizon Center.

What I do take vigorous exception to is the notion that I must cling to some all white version of Western civilization in a desperate attempt to save my white tribe from cultural oblivion. I’m proud of the many glorious social, cultural, military, scientific and technological achievements of Western civilization. They are magnificent. But I am not blind to its mistakes and shortcomings. There is no tribe out there with a monopoly on virtue, creativity, cruelty or stupidity.

On a more personal note, I resent the notion that my tribe cannot include all those black and Hispanic (mostly Mexican) soldiers I served with in the 35th Infantry. My rifle platoon was one third each black, Hispanic and white. The mortar section in my weapons platoon was almost exclusively Mexican and black. Surprisingly, tensions and fights were always between companies and battalions, not races. Yes, we were all members of our own respective ethnic tribes, but we were all willing to fight and die for our common tribe. I loved them as much as I loved my all white Special Forces Detachment and my extrordinarily multicultural SMU team.

To anyone who thinks I should fall in behind the banner of white nationalism or follow the hopping green hitler frog or whatever to save Western civilization, I offer the phrase taught to me by my first platoon sergeant, SSG Livingston, a black man, “Kiss me where it stinks, mutha fukka.”

TTG

P.S. If I was a better man, I would have found a quote from Pope Francis rather than SSG Livingstone.

Additional info about the Brits, the blacks and the War of 1812:

http://starspangledtrail.net/life-during-wartime/blacks

 

"THE NEW ANCIEN REGIME ARRIVES IN THE WHITE HOUSE" by Michael Brenner

The United States is indeed exceptional. It is in the only country that ushers in a new Presidency by displacing thousands of the highest Executive branch officials. ‘Change’ you believe in because it is dictated by law and rooted tradition. It is one of the age’s secular mysteries how institutional integrity and coherent programs survive this upheaval. Foreigners in particular fret over how they are going to handle fresh personalities and new ideas. After all, all this motion could jeopardize their own plans and commitments. Anxiety is abated somewhat when they look back at other transitions to find that continuity eclipses innovation by a wide margin. There is more change of style than of substance. That holds for both persons and policies. 

Placed in historical perspective, it is striking that shifts by Washington, and hence adjustments required of other powers tend to be marginal. Think of the Cold War. Premises and purposes varied ever so slightly between Harry Truman and Ronald Reagan. Events more than leaders were the primary cause of significant alterations in its modalities. Stalin’s death, the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis (above all), Vietnam, the 1973 complex of Middle East crises, the fall of the Shah, Afghanistan and then – finally and conclusively – the arrival in the Kremlin of Mikhail Gorbachev.

The post-Cold War era has witnessed similar continuity. Six successive administrations headed by four different Presidents have dedicated America to accomplishing the same ends. They have been: promote the extension of a globalized world economy grounded on neo-liberal principles are far as possible; foster democratic political systems headed by leaders sympathetic to Washington’s philosophy and leadership; isolate and bring down any government that actively resists this campaign; and maintain the United States’ dominant position as rule-setter in international organizations.

"Will Turkey's military turn East or West?" by Metin Gurcan

As the number of dismissals from Turkey's military ranks grows after the failed coup last month, we can try to get a clearer picture of who and what will be left when the purge ends. 

Turkish Defense Minister Fikri Isik said Aug. 18 that a total of 3,725 ranking officers from the army, navy and air force commands, the gendarmerie and coast guard have been discharged from the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). The castoffs were strongly suspected of being affiliated with the Gulen movement, or of neglecting their duty at the time of the coup.

Most affected by these summary dismissals were the commanding elites of generals and admirals. Of 325 generals in army, navy and air force, 149 of them (45.8%) were discharged. Among them were two four-star generals, nine lieutenant generals, 30 major generals and vice admirals, and 126 brigadier generals and rear admirals.

A list of expelled generals shows most were officers who gave priority to Atlantic ties and held strong pro-NATO stances. As Turkey has been an important member of the Western security bloc and a strong member of the NATO army, there is no doubt that these dismissals will have major effects on TSK's strategic identity and organizational culture.

Among the discharged TSK generals and colonels were some very important names. There are strong suspicions that two leaders of the coup attempt were Maj. Gen. Mehmet Disli, who was chief of the strategic transformation office at the chief of staff headquarters, and Brig. Gen. Mehmet Partigoc. Also among the expelled were Lt. Gen. Salih Ulusoy, the chief of plans and principles (J5); Maj. Gen. Nevzat Tasdeler, the commander of Staff College; Maj. Gen. Salih Sevil, posted as Turkey’s representative at NATO; and Maj. Gen. Serhat Habiboglu, responsible for force development at the headquarters. All of them held key posts in the TSK transformation process.

Chief of General Staff Gen. Hulusi Akar, since his assignment in August 2015, has been dealing with about 170 TSK transformation projects that seek to ensure an integrated TSK and to reduce its size while increasing its effectiveness. Akar must be enduring some tough days because of these expulsions and the political and public pressures he is under.

The coup attempt has agonizingly politicized the TSK’s institutional transformation. It has become almost impossible to comment on the TSK without taking an ideological position. Treating the subject from an overridingly ideological angle makes it impossible to make an objective, apolitical and worthwhile technical analysis.

The questions we now face are simple. How can such a politicized TSK cope with fundamental change? Will the TSK revert to its previous status quo or become something else?

 

To answer these questions, we have to classify TSK generals in relation to institutional transformation:

Parasites — These are the generals who believe that because of their past service they already paid their dues and it is now time to take it easy and let the system take care of them. For this indolent, lazy officer type, transformation means uncertainty, therefore more risk-taking and more work. They don’t like it. They would prefer to follow the proven path of their predecessors.

Pragmatists — They believe in give and take with the TSK but put their own careers first. Pragmatists closely follow all changes and trends in the institution and seek the most advantageous. They are the most vulnerable to politicization. They choose between change and the status quo by assessing the risks for themselves by keeping track of their superiors' views. The majority of pragmatists prefer to maintain the status quo by avoiding risks.

Reformists — Those who are unhappy with the current TSK situation and who want to transform it. Transformation proponents resent the status quo. They incessantly criticize the TSK's prevailing culture, organizational structure and work methods. They see the TSK as lagging behind modern armies. There are actually two subcategories of reformist officers in the TSK.

Original reformists, whose dream is to return the TSK to its roots in the early republic: active secularism, statism and nationalism. For these officers, the TSK has deviated from this ideal and the deviation must be corrected as soon as possible. As some would say nowadays, they seek to restore the factory settings.

Progressive reformists, who approach issues not so much based on values, but advocate that the TSK should follow societal and civilian-military relations in Turkey and the global arena and act accordingly.

It is also possible to classify TSK generals according to their political choice of right or left and their reading of global trends as nationalist and globalists:

Conservatives (Right-Nationalists) — In general, they don’t speak foreign languages, haven’t had training or duty in foreign countries, and don’t try to understand changes in the global scene. They are generally pro-status quo and reactive. You will find many pragmatists and some parasites in this category.

Neo-Nationalists (Left-Nationalists) — These who think of pre-independence times as dark ages also have poor foreign language abilities and little, if any, service abroad. They question every development outside Turkey with suspicion, and their reactive-nationalist attitudes generally override their leftist ideology.

Atlanticists (Right-Globalists) — These generals speak foreign languages, had good educations and have served abroad. Their goal is to achieve the professionalism level of NATO. For this category, NATO and its value system and the structure of the US military and its work methods are ideal. They see the TSK as an important element of the Western security system led by the United States. They believe that for Turkey to reinforce its standing in the international arena, it has to find its place among modern Western armies.

Euroasianists (Left-Globalists) — Just like Atlanticists, they speak foreign languages, had proper educations and served abroad, but they are not as aligned in world affairs and are anti-American. They think Turkey must be more independent and turn toward the East, which in their opinion is the irreversible current trend. They also oppose NATO.

From the TSK expulsions list we see most were Atlanticists and conservative officers. We also now detect that those who pretended to be Atlanticists in key units working on institutional transformation were actually Gulenists.

At the moment, the TSK is caught in the middle while crossing the stream of organizational transformation. Will it cross to the other side and continue with the transformation or go back and restore the status quo ante?

TSK Atlanticists have lost considerable power because of Gulenist influences and mass expulsions. Will President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who now has more say in military affairs, become pro-transformation and opt for Euroasianist and neonationalist models that advocate a return to origins, to being more independent and Euroasianist externally, or will he focus on pragmatists and parasites to structure a new power balance in the TSK under strict civilian control? In other words, will the civilian-political authority call on Euroasianist reformists to lead the TSK’s transformation to defend the country against external threats? Or will the idea be to institute a power balance among the pragmatists, parasites and reformists in the TSK?

To learn the answers to these questions, we have to know whether Akar, the current chief, will remain in his post. If he departs, it would be a serious blow to Atlanticists. We seem to be heading in that direction. On the other hand, Erdogan appointed retired Brig. Gen. Adnan Tanriverdi of the Sadat A.S. private military company as his chief adviser on defense-security affairs. Tanriverdi is a key name in conservative traditions, and the appointment could well be an effort to balance the increasing power of Euroasianists in the TSK.

Metin Gurcan is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Turkey Pulse. He served in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Iraq as a Turkish military adviser between 2002-2008. Resigned from the military, he is now  an Istanbul-based independent security analyst.

 http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/turkey-what-is-next-for-military-east-west-both.html

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It seems to me that the die is cast in Turkey and that the secularists who held turkey for Kemalism have little chance of a return to the power they once had.  NATO needs to adapt to a new reality in which Turkey is more of an adversary than an ally.

The actual attitude of the Russians to this is unclear to me as yet.  pl

US Politics and policy and Syria

US politics.   I am more convinced than ever that HC will be president.  IMO the NY Times estimate of an 80% chance of that happening is "on the money" unless there is a much larger hidden pro-Trump, pro-Republican vote than anyone in the media believes.  I think there is such a vote but doubt that it will be big enough to carry the day for him.  The consequences of her election will be fell indeed.  IMO she will follow a reckless path toward the ideal future she desires.   I doubt that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives and their possession of many state governments will be obstacles to her desires.  The use of Executive Orders is likely to be frequent.  The police powers of the federal government will be to be heavily used.

US foreign policy.   IMO she is going to be frustrated in her desire to make all the world's children (populations and governments alike) behave as she thinks they should.  she understands very little of the nuts and bolts of military affairs and imagines that symbolic uses of military forces will result in compliance with her desired result.  This will be reflected in things like declarations of "safe zones" in hostile territory without regard to the cost in blood and treasure.

Turkey, Russia and the US.  So far, Turkey appears to be a "top"  in this three sided game of international affairs.  the Turks are not subtle. The sainted occupant of the caliphal throne in Ankara succeeded in bullying the EU into giving him six billion Golden Greckels (euros for you Germans), and now has brought Obama/Biden/Kerry  to heel in the matter of our wayward support of Syrian Kurds.  "All the world wondered."  I will not comment further on the tactical situation east of Aleppo City.  TTG does a great job on that.  But....  It does surely seem to be the case that the US is now Erdogan's bitch.

 Syria tactical.  The recent negotiated surrender of rebel forces near Damascus and the progress made in recapturing East Ghouta are very helpful to R+6.  About 3,000 soldiers will be freed up for movement north to the Aleppo City battle.  IMO unicorn/jihadi losses in the Aleppo battle have been severe and the reinforcements coming from the south will contribute to an even higher body count inflicted on the rebels.  The break in the R+6 siege lines around East Aleppo has not been useful as a supply route because it is covered by fire.  IMO that will continue to be the case and the starving will continue there.  I would wager that there are few live dogs or cats in the rebel occupied area.    Will Turkey attempt to intervene directly in the Aleppo battle?  I doubt it.

Syria diplomacy.  The Obamanite fantasists still seem to believe that the Russians can be talked into abandoning their Syrian allies.   pl

I'm back.

  pl

"Alt Right" by Tyler

Hillary Clinton gave a speech today attacking the “Alt Right” in between simultaneously claiming Trump was a Putin puppet and that Trump was going to start WW3 with nukes by attacking Putin.  There was an ad that featured “scary” KKK types, but this is standard fare for the modern Democratic party.  The fact of the matter is that the Clintons, the Democratic Party, and the MSM are all pretty confused about what the hell the Alt Right is.

The standard playbook move by the Progressive/Marxist Left has been to shout down any resistance as Nazi Bigots Who Want to Holocaust Six Million Jewish Black Baby Illegal Alien Bodies the minute they come into power.  Until recently, it was a rather effective tactic, as the target stopped talking about the (usually true) fact that they had hit upon and instead began sputtering about how they weren’t really a racist and they were the most unracist racist to ever not be a racist.  In other words, the lady doth protest too much.  The ever compliant media would then turn the conversation into how racist the person in question was.  Part of the reason that Trump is so effective is that he does not get off message by these accusations.

With the Alt Right, the response is to double down on the racism and refer to themselves as gay Nazi bodybuilders in addition to telling crude jokes about how many Jews one can fit into an ashtray.  This is maddening, because the one thing the Devil cannot tolerate is to be mocked.  The fact that the usual tactics are not working can help explain these conniptions by the Borg.

Further complicating matters is there is no standard for “is” the Alt Right.  I will give you my interpretation, which I believe is a good general primer to the readers of this refined site.   First, it is not “conservatism” in a traditional sense.  Conservatism was always defined by its opposition to progressivism, and therefore had very few hard principles.  Now, conservatism is more about conserving the paychecks and sinecures of National Review writers to keep on getting invited on talk shows.

The Alt Right believes that the Traditional Western State is worth preserving, the best thing, and that they do not cede moral authority to the Left.  That modernism and progress is a lie, simply a way for the usual Borgists throughout history to leverage power to benefit them.  Of course, there are arguments to how best accomplish this.  Some believe that returning to a Founder’s Republic style is better, while others believe that the setting for the republic has passed, and that aristocracy is man’s natural state. 

Obviously, there is a broad range of opinions here, but as I said before it’s that Traditional Western Civilization (mostly embodied in this modern era by Russia and Eastern Europe) is the best way for humanity to progress.  Specifically, that the pillars of Western Civ (the family, military, church, academia, and culture) are worth defending in the face of “progress”, which is secular hedonism dressed up as a way forward.

Some of you reading this are pointing and sputtering right now.  “What about the damn Hitlerfrog!” you are shouting at the monitor. Yes, yes.  There’s no greater way to spin the Left up than to attack their sacred cows, especially when the Left has made the last forty years a free for all for mockery.  Now that they’re in the crosshairs of psychofash teenagers with nothing to do but create offensive memes, they want to bring back speech codes and censorship.

Annoyed by the hypocrisy of wealthy white liberals living in gated communities telling Rust Belt Americans that illegal immigrants have as much right to America as they do, the Alt Right has a grand time pointing out that the people who hate walls live behind walls, usually in the most offensive fashion.  It is an effective blend of the dialectic and the rhetorical, made more effective by the fact that the Alt Right has the truth on its side.

Trump’s rise has let the genie out of the bottle. The modern Republican Party has two options: either it can go the way of the Whigs, consisting of old men upset over frog memes while transparently making sure of their own nest egg, or it will be subsumed by the Young Turks of the Alt Right, who are currently in the process of naming the enemy for what it is.  Time will tell where the dice fly.

"A Scytheclaw and her Boy" by Tyler

 

         “The Lady fell for another

         To the Beast she was a mother

         Dragons talk and Dragons mock

         But the Beast begins his stalk

         They stand! They fall! Then they flee!

         How many of them will he reave?

         (One...two...three...four...five..)”

        

         - Child's skipping rhyme on Scylla, origins unknown    

 

        

            There were many firsts during this trip for the teenager.  While he had been on shuttles before, this was the first actual ship he had been on.  This was the first time he had slept alone, technically speaking, in a room.  The death cultists handlers that never seemed to be more than a raised voice away were gone, replaced by League of Silence personnel in their severe black uniforms with the arrows and moon over their hearts.  They had the same wary fear they tried to mask with dispassion as the Harvester Suicide Commandos though, but without the benefit of iron masks to hide their faces behind and iron discipline from harsh training.

         That was nothing new to him though – as long as he could remember he had been raised in controlled settings by people who thought negatively of him.  First it had been contempt, and then as he grew into his strength and the terrible training worked its wonders on his body, contempt turned into fear.  After they had taken him and his dog into the room -

         Red flashed in his mind as he sat up in the cot that was provided him in the small room, his mind instantly blanking out and knocking him out of the dreamy reverie he had been.  He would not allow himself to relive that moment that had changed him.

         “You were thinking of it again, weren't you?” a woman's voice asked from the shadows, cultured and yet slightly rough.

         He nodded in the bed, sitting up and pushing down a sheet that covered a muscular torso.  Some scars were here and there, mostly on his back from beatings, and he didn't feel the pain from the tattoo along his ribs, the one that read CLAY-FOSsil-S/N 003R.  He also didn't want to tell her the truth, but he wouldn't lie to her either.  “I was,” he admitted after a moment, with a voice just starting to deepen.

         Claws clicked on the bare tile as the female rose up and came into the light, her tail flicking out behind her.  She was a beauty, as far as Scytheclaws went.  Nearly the size of a horse, her eyes shown with fierce intelligence.  Bright blue and glossy black feathers colored what scales did not in the same configuration, and on each clawed foot was the large talon that gave the utahraptors their distinctive name.  In every muscle that flexed under her scales and every cant of her head it was proclaimed that she was a predator in the truest sense of the term.

“The World Turned Upside Down” - TTG

ISTANBUL — Syrian rebels backed by Turkish troops and tanks recaptured the Islamic State’s last major stronghold on the Syrian-Turkish border on Wednesday, inflicting yet another defeat on the militants rapidly dwindling “caliphate.” By late afternoon, rebel fighters and Turkish officials said the rebels had reached the center of Jarabulus after encountering almost no resistance from Islamic State fighters, who appeared to have fled ahead of the advancing forces. Photographs posted on social media showed rebels posing in front of government buildings in the town’s central square.

The capture of Jarabulus deprives the Islamic State of a crucial foothold on the Turkish border, used for funneling foreign fighters and supplies, and is expected to help accelerate the militants’ demise elsewhere across its self-proclaimed caliphate.

The offensive was spearheaded by Turkey, which sent tanks, troops and warplanes into Syria for the first time in the country’s five-year-old war to help a force of hundreds of Syrian rebels. The operation also includes U.S. advisers, who are advising the operation from inside Turkey, while American surveillance aircraft are providing overflight intelligence and are poised to contribute U.S. airstrikes if necessary, according to a senior Obama administration official.

The presence of Turkish troops in Syria will also add a new layer of complexity to the already massively complicated war, potentially pushing Turkey closer toward conflict with U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds and perhaps the Syrian government.

The offensive against Islamic State fighters in Jarabulus, along the Euphrates River, began just hours before Biden arrived on a mission to repair the eroding U.S.-Turkey relationship, which is considered crucial to the ongoing battle against the Islamic State.

“The major goal of the trip is to make sure that our alliance remains rock-solid and that relations get back on track,” said the senior official, who was traveling with Biden. “We can’t afford any friction in our relationship right now, because we have a lot of business to do with the Turks.” (WaPo)

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So, has Turkey turned against IS? I’m not convinced. There have been no battles or casualties in the “Battle for Jarabulus.” All IS forces made an orderly redeployment to al-Bab prior to the Turkish-FSA invasion. This was all coordinated by Turkey to prevent further Kurdish advances in north Syria. I doubt Russia was surprised by this, but I have no idea of their part in this move. They only publicly expressed mild concern for these recent developments. Besides, the Russians have been busy tamping down the latest dust up between YPG and SAA forces in Hasakah.

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U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is calling on Syrian Kurdish forces to move back across the Euphrates River, telling them they will lose U.S. support if they don't.

Speaking at a press conference in Ankara on Wednesday, Biden says Kurdish forces "must move back across the Euphrates River." He says "they cannot — will not — under any circumstance get American support if they do not keep that commitment."

Biden indirectly expressed support for the Turkish operation launched Wednesday to clear Islamic State militants from the town of Jarablus and deter Kurds from further expanding in northern Syria. (AP)

*******************************

Once more we have stuck it to the Kurds. No one, including the Kurds, should be surprised by Biden’s remarks. I am sure the Obama Administration is desperate to prevent Turkey turning to Russia and away from the NATO and Borg hegemony. Obama cannot risk being labeled as the one who lost Turkey.

So far, I have not seen any indication that the YPG Kurds are withdrawing east of the Euphrates. I doubt the YPG is willing to abandon many of those newly liberated Kurdish villagers to the Turks. There are reports of YPG/SDF forces reinforcing their lines north of Manbij and digging trench lines to to meet the advancing Turks. We shall see what will happen in the coming hours.

I’d almost give my left nut to see the instructions sent by the CJTF in Baghdad to those Special Forces teams fighting along side the YPG/SDF for all these months. I am reminded of my team sergeant’s admonishment many years ago, “Well goddam sir. The first thing we do when we get off the goddam DZ is to put a goddam round through that goddam radio.”

TTG

SST closed until after Labor Day.

The level of tendentious BS has gotten deep enough here for me shut the place down until after the 1st of September. pl

Borgist dreams of ... What, exactly?

 

1.  Joe Scarborough and his MJ crew are on a hyper-nationalist journey in which the Cold War image of the USSR continues to dominate their collective Borgasm.

2.  They fret and fret over a variety of issues such as the supposed Russian intention to invade Ukraine.   What proof there is for that escapes me but, no matter...  Why do they bother to ponder this possibility?  If it is going to happen, that will become manifest.  If it does not happen, well, it did not happen.  The only reason one would be interested in forecasting something like this would be if one contemplated a forestalling effort and I do not think that is a real option for the US and its Borgistic pals.  Mutual nuclear annihilation lurks in the background and the JCS knows that well.

3.  Donald  (the Closer) Trump and his minions are the object of intensive Borgist media efforts to portray them as agents of Vladimir the Hood (LeCarre reference).  It is now discovered that Berlusconi (the Letch) was also a servant of The Evil One brooding in his Kremlinesque castle (Lord of the Rings reference).  I actually think the Letch was interestingly human and nothing like a Borgista.  Can anyone doubt that this latest smear campaign is directed by the Obamanite information operations center  in the White House? 

3.  The Turks.  Ah yes, the Turks.  On the one hand they are going to attend cooperation meetings in Teheran with Russia and the Shia mullahcracy. On a second hand they are talking about improving relations with the Syrian government.  With yet a third hand they have in the last couple of days let 1,000 jihadi reinforcements pass through the Turkish Hatay Province border crossings for the evident purpose of reinforcing the jihadis at Aleppo where these creatures have lost a lot of men.  It would seem to me that the Russians and Iranians know about this since I do.  I think the Sublime Porte did things more skillfully than this but, what do I know? 

4.  Then there is the Aleppo battle itself.  This thing has become such a meat grinder for the jihadis that the R+6 must think it worth continuing for a while.  As someone on SST mentioned there has emerged a pattern in which Syrian forces advance into a rebel held area of the city and then withdraw to allow the jihadis to re-occupy it.  This is a great  convenience since the area you withdrew from is "target rich"  after the jihadis advance int it.  And then there are the hunting trips across Idlib Province being conducted by Russian and Syrian air.  This must be a real meat market.

Hilly is going to have a lot to deal with in her role as mother of us all.

pl

https://southfront.org/turkey-permits-1000-terrorists-to-cross-border-and-enter-in-syrias-idlib/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-russia-iran-idUKKCN10S0V9

We need to revive the military draft.

My dear old Dad had seen it all, done most of it and was unrepentant about any of it.  He used to tell me (among many other things) that the end of concription in the United States would be a disaster for career soldiers and for the United States.

Why?

He reasoned that having completely professional armed forces would be profoundly liberating for any elected government because the tiny segment of the electorate who would have children in the military would not be a potent political force in an election.  In other words expeditionary wars of choice would be politically painless for the politicians. 

That has proven to be the case.  Sheltered behind sentimental nonsense about "thanks for service," and ribbons tied around trees, the American people have proven themselves to be indifferent to the human suffering and costs inflicted in the Borg Wars.   Some of this suffering has been experienced by our own soldiers, but a great deal of it has been inflicted by us and our friends in the inevitable wretched business of "collateral damage."

When the draft ended I thought that was a good policy change.  I was profoundly weary of the leadership challenges presented by conscripts.  I thought  that working with fellow professionals would be a welcome change and it was, but a corollary change proved to be that professional soldiers could be sent to die without fear of an electoral backlash.

The is profoundly enabling for the Globalists, among whom Hillary Clinton is surely included.

Would Hillary Clinton want the draft back?  I think not.  Would a self-serving Congress want it back?  I think not.  Would all the mommies and daddies whose children would be drafted?  I think not.  What would Trump want?  Well, who cares? He will not be president unless something really spectacular happens.

Nevertheless, people of quality should demand a mandatory military service law and this time the law should require that the National Guard be deployed with the regular forces in any combat deployment.  pl

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu Speaks - TTG

Moscow and Washington are in direct talks to resolve the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo, Syria, according to Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. “We are in a very active phase of talks with our American counterparts both in Geneva and in Amman; we are frequently in touch with Washington,” Shoigu told TV channel Rossiya 24 on Monday.  “We are moving step by step closer to a plan – and I’m only talking about Aleppo here – that would really allow us to start fighting together to bring peace so that people can return to their homes in this troubled land.”

Russia and the US are working to resolve the situation in Syria in a very concrete and organized way, according to Shoigu, who explained that all of the suggestions are aimed at preserving the country’s territorial integrity and fighting terrorism, while the sides believe that the rest can be worked out at the negotiation table.

Shoigu said that, despite being feared in the West, Islamist militants are actually unaware of what they are fighting for. “If we look at [their] nationalities... they would hardly know five cities in Syria by heart. They don’t know the names of those cities, and they hardly wonder what they’re fighting for. It’s obvious and clear to everyone.”

State Department officials told a CBS News correspondent that there is presently nothing to announce on US-Russia cooperation in Aleppo. Direct talks on the issue are continuing in Geneva, but there is no “deadline” for any agreement on cooperation, they said. (RT)

***************************

What is Shoigu talking about here? He has never struck me as one given to idle chit-chat or speculation. My guess is that he is not talking about the city of Aleppo. That would be a stretch. He is referring to the coming battle for al-Bab and the closing of the link between IS and the Turkish border. They are preparing for a "Meeting on the Elbe" moment which will require close air-ground coordination. It is militarily prudent to discuss such things.

*************************

A French member of the SDF told ARA News that their forces aim to liberate as much as territory from ISIS as possible. During a press conference, the al-Bab Military Council announced that they follow the example of the SDF-led Manbij Military Council that liberated Manbij city from ISIS last Friday.

“Drawing on the experience of our neighbours in liberated Manbij and it’s countryside, it has become necessary for us to work together to liberate our people, as a step to the liberation of all of Syria, and to build a common home,” the council said. “That’s why we announced the founding of the military council of al-Bab and its countryside,” the organization said. (ARA News)

*************************

The SDF has announced the formation of the al-Bab Military Council on Sunday. This is in line with the YPG desire to continue the offensive to al-Bab and on to Afrin. The US desire to seize Raqqa will have to wait for another day. The SDF and the new al-Bab Military Council give the US the fig leaf needed to continue supporting the Kurdish drive to unite Rojava. I also believe the Kurds and the Arabs of the SDF are not of the "Assad must go" camp. They may be ambivalent of his continued regime in Damascus, but they desire a united Syria with some hard won federated semi-autonomy. They know they live in a tough neighborhood. The US will have to look elsewhere for their new unicorn army.

TTG

 

The essential Hilly

“We’re not interested in social reconstruction,” she corrected the speaker, Sen. Edward Brooke of Massachusetts. “It’s human reconstruction.”

Her impromptu attack was over in a flash, and Wellesley President Ruth Adams set out to repair the damage.

Adams fired off a letter to Brooke, then the nation’s ­highest-ranking black elected official, apologizing for Clinton’s intemperate remarks.

“Courtesy is not one of the stronger virtues of the young,” she wrote Brooke on June 5, 1969, in a letter The Washington Post recently discovered in his archived papers. “Scoring debater’s points seems, on occasion, to have higher standing.”  Washpost

----------------

Here you have it folks, it's not "social reconstruction" that she wants.  It's "human reconstruction."  In other words she wants to change human nature.  It's not a wonder that she is a neocon.  They, too, want to make the lions and the lambs lie down in peace together.

Amusingly, my uncle Gordon and his wife Althea endowed the "Gordon P. and Althea P. Lang '26" chair of biological sciences at Wellesley College.  Perhaps the reigning professor sitting in that chair can come to Washington to help Hilly re-design us all.  pl

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hillary-clintons-breakout-moment-at-wellesley-college/2016/08/14/18039d3c-5bfe-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2_story.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Brooke

 

Soros Leaks - Intelligence In Action - By Walrus.

Looking through a few documents allegedly from the Soros Open Society Initiative leaked by website Dcleaks, I noticed what I think is a pretty good illustration of an intelligence/PR appreciation, or analysis of the German news media and the German publics attitude to the Ukranian situation, at least as portrayed by the author.

I was intrigued enough to post the link in the hope that SST readers might like to comment both on its contents and crafting. The only conclusion I can draw from its content is that the intentions of OSI towards Russia are not benign.

 

http://soros.dcleaks.com/download/?f=/Ukraine%20and%20Europe/germany/osf%20draft.rtf&t=europe

Open Thread 14 August 2016

pl

"Centcom Senior Leaders "Cooked the Books" On ISIS" by Willy B

A House Republican joint task force has concluded that senior officers at US Central Command did, indeed, "cook the books" on their assessments of ISIS in Iraq and how well the war was going against it. The complaints first surfaced, publicly, a year ago, when it become known that senior intelligence analysts, seconded from the DIA, including some with 20 or more years experience on Iraq, alleged that their analyses were altered to make the war against ISIS look like it was going better than it really was. The allegations were serious enough that the Department of Defense Inspector General opened an investigation, an investigation which is still ongoing.

The Congressional task force, led by chairmen of the House Armed Services and Intelligence Committees and the Defense Appropriations subcommittee, reports, based on its own inquiry, that "Centcom produced intelligence that was significantly more optimistic than that of other parts of the Intelligence Community and typically more optimistic than actual events warranted." Additionally, "many Centcom press releases, public statements and congressional testimonies were also signficantly more positive than actual events." The task force attributes many of the problems to leadership changes that took place in Centcom after Gen. James Mattis was replaced as Centcom commander by Gen. Lloyd Austin in 2013. Survey results showed that dozens of analysts "viewed the subsequent leadership environment as toxic, with 40 percent of analysts responding that they had experienced an attempt to distort or suppress intelligence in the past year."

The report doesn't name anyone beyond Mattis and Austin, but news reports from last year, identified Maj. Gen. Steven Grove, Centcom‛s top intelligence officer, and his civilian deputy, Gregory Ryckman as the subjects of the analysts' complaints. Grove is now the director of the Army Quadrennial Defense Review Office, at the Pentagon. The New York Times, last year, identified Gregory Hooker as the lead analyst of among fifty in the complaint against Grove and Hooker. More recently, in April of 2016, The Daily Beast reported that two analysts that they didn't name had been forced out of their jobs at Centcom due to their complaints while Hooker has been reassigned to a position in the UK.

The report does not attempt to attribute responsibility for the suppression of intelligence analyses up the chain of command, not even to Austin, much less the White House, though it reports that testimony that Austin delivered to Congressional committees during the time period at issue reflected the rosier-than-reality assessments. Centcom intelligence officials also briefed the Office of National Intelligence, including its director, James Clapper, several times a week, and, according to the report, those assessments were then passed on to the White House.

The question of White House culpability remains an open one, however. A Daily Beast report from September 2015 reported that the upshot was that the altering of intelligence reports impacted assessments of the strategy, itself. Some of the analysts say that the reports overstate the damage being done to ISIS and one result is that the generally optimistic reports may have stalled debate about whether the strategy needed to be reexamined or change course.

Cooking the books on the war on terror is apparently not unique to Centcom, however. The story of the trove of intelligence seized during the 2011 raid in which Osama bin Laden was killed should, it seems to me, if it is accurate, be an even bigger scandal. The main source of the story is Stephen Hayes of The Weekly Standard who reported in a December 7, 2015 article that the White House had severely limited access to those documents by analysts from the military and other intelligence agencies (outside of the CIA which has control of them) because they contradicted the White House narrative that AQ was weakened and on the run. "Taken together, this new primary-source intelligence undercut happy-talk from the White House about progress in defeating jihadist terror," Hayes wrote. "Al Qaeda wasn't dying; it was growing. The Afghan Taliban wasn't moderating; its leaders were as close to al Qaeda as ever. The same Iranian regime promising to abide by the terms of a deal to limit its nuclear program had provided safe haven for al Qaeda leaders and their families and had facilitated al Qaeda attacks on the interests of the United States and its allies."

"As word of the contents of the documents began to circulate informally in intelligence circles, one official on the team was summoned to Washington and ordered to quit analyzing the documents. ... Four sources with knowledge of the bin Laden documents tell TWS that the White House was intimately involved in limiting access to them." Hayes names names, too.  Michael Pregent, a DIA analyst on the CENTCOM team, told Hayes that "We were certainly blocked from seeing all the documents, and we were given limited time and resources to exploit the ones we had." Former DIA chief LTG Michael Flynn, Hayes reports, told Fox News that any investigation of the Centcom scandal has to include the White House.  


https://armedservices.house.gov/news/press-releases/congressional-task-force-centcom-releases-initial-report

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/20/exclusive-this-is-the-isis-intel-the-u-s-military-dumbed-down.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/us/politics/military-reviews-us-response-to-isis-rise.html?_r=0

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/03/intel-analysts-we-were-punished-for-telling-the-truth-about-obama-s-isis-war.html

http://www.weeklystandard.com/article/obama-s-intel-scandal/1070543

http://www.wsj.com/articles/stephen-hayes-and-tomas-joscelyn-how-america-was-misled-on-al-qaedas-demise-1425600796

http://counterjihadreport.com/2014/09/04/al-qaeda-wasnt-on-the-run/

"Obama admin blocked FBI probe of Clinton Foundation corruption" Washington Times

" ... the Obama administration rejected requests from three FBI field offices that wanted to open public corruption cases involving the Clinton Foundation and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton."  Washington Times

--------------

It is no wonder that Comey would not comment on this in his testimony before Congress about Servergate.  pl  

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/11/obama-admin-blocked-fbi-probe-clinton-foundation/

96% of Clintons' donations went to their foundations.

"Hillary Clinton and her husband Bill deducted $1,042,000 in charitable contributions last year — $1 million of which went to their own family non-profit, the Clinton Foundation."

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/12/96-percent-of-hillarys-charitable-donations-in-2015-went-to-clinton-foundation/#ixzz4H9PHO8Lj

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/07/hillary-clinton-releases-her-tax-returns/457896/

-----------

"Charity begins at home."   "I have to pay the bills,"  Bill said.  pl  

Strategery in East Asia and thereabouts.

Babak suggested that we should have Korea and the South China Sea included in our list of strategeral concerns.  I agree.

Korea.  This nightmare state is evidently not going to suddenly disappear.  Therefore, we must think about it.  IMO they will keep doing product improvements on their missiles and nuclear weapons until they have one that will range Japan, Guam, Oahu or some such place.  What will we do about that?  Will we wait to see if they ever decide to perform such a mad act?  The retaliation would be awesome (teen talk).  Would we then invade North Korea along with our Spam tinned meat addicted South Korean friends for the purpose of occupying the ruins?  If we did, the South Koreans could be counted on to do the occupying.  You probably not want to watch the "sausage making" process of occupation, but ... A bigger question would be - what would Big Grandma do about all this?  The neocons are not focused on this problem because it does not involve Israel so she might be without comprehensive advice on this one. 

The South China Sea (China).  The Chinese evidently want to be a maritime power and to that end have been constructing man made islands built on the "foundation" of tiny sand bars that stuck up out of that distant sea in which I used to SCUBA dive and ... other things.  The US Navy seems perpetually absorbed in Alfred Mahan's vision of a world dominated by SEAPOWER!  Mahan believed that if you control the sea you control the world.  The air power guys seem to have second thoughts about that, but, no matter ...  Mahan is the unofficial patron saint of the US Naval War College where he was a professor and wrote his earth shattering tome "The Influence of Sea Power on History."   I'm a Clausewitz man.  Mahan never seems to go away.  I have been subjected by navy people to a lot of harangues on the Soviet sea power menace in the USSR's "drive to warm water ports" in India, Pakistan, Alexandria (once upon a time) and Syria!!.   Now, the Fu Manchu menace is "crowding" the sea lanes in the South China Sea with these island bases.  After she is installed in the White House the Borg Queen will have to deal with some old sea dog channeling Bull Halsey who wants to "show'em."  How will she deal with that? 

How would Trump deal with that?  Who knows? But ...  pl

 

 

Strategery and tactickery in Eurasia

There is not enough data with which to do an adequate job of analysis on all that is occurring just now, but I think I must make a preliminary "stab" at it with the understanding that all this is subject to revision.

1.  Russia/Turkey.   "My dear friend" is what Erdogan called Putin several times yesterday, and now Erdogan has issued an "ultimatum" to the US to hand over Gulen or forget about its relationship to Turkey.  Firstly, lets get the nukes out of Incirlik.  Why tempt the sultan?  Secondly, does this mean that Turkey will abandon its support of the non-IS rebels in Syria?  My SWAG would be that it does not.  I would expect that Erdogan will try to have it both ways.  IMO he will try to surrepticiously continue to make Turkey available as strategic depth to the rebels while simultaneously trying to obtain Russian support against the emergence of anything like a Syrian statelet.  Whether or not the YPG Kurds and the SDF Arabs advance to al-Bab, heavy IS counterattacks should be expected as the occupation of Manbij threatens remaining  IS communications from Turkey to the Caliphate. 

2. Iraq.  The US/Iraqi effort on the axis Baghdad-Mosul is going to take a long time to develop.  The Iraqi Army and militia forces still have a long way to go to develop the kind of capability that the Pesh Merga and YPG Kurds already have.  A Clinton Administration advised by people like Morell and the AEI neocons would likely double-down on the Iraq effort with US ground troops to carry the offensives all the way to Raqqa and Mosul.   Would the US then let the Iraqi government run the country? IMO that is an open question.  Big Grandma (the Borg Queen) may well think that the children do not play together well enough to be left unsupervised.

3.  Afghanistan.   IS and the Taliban have made a deal to cooperate against the Kabul government.  This doesn't sound like good news.  The government is saddled with "forces of order" that are far too large and expensive for it to ever afford.  It seems to me that this makes the Afghan government something familiar to me, i.e., a regime with large, fairly clumsy forces trying to defend a number of more or less besieged localities against guerrillas who control the countryside.   All of this makes Afghanistan an unacknowledged overseas protectorate of the US.  Will Big Grandma double down there as well?

4.  Libya.  US, French and British SF are engaged on the ground in holding back the IS "hordes."  Well, smallish "Hordes," are evidently the case at present.  But ... small "hordes" may grow.  What will Big Grandma do then?

5.  Ukraine.  I don't know.  Someone please tell me.

6.  Syria.  My SWAG is that R+6 will be able to seal off the penetration in SW Aleppo and re-isolate East Aleppo.   The jihadi friendly media are doing their best to depict the jihadi rebels and their supporters in the pocket as something like Robin Hood and his archers or maybe the Cisco Kid fighting off the forces of Spanish oppression.  That doesn't work very well.   Jihadis are, well, jihadis, but the process of myth building will probably make them heroic figures just as the Argentinian adventurer, Che Guevara has become a tee-shirt theme.  If the Turks do not provide enough support across the Hatay border crossings, the rebel losses at Aleppo and along the dusty, air stricken roads in Idlib will have greatly weakened the rebels.  We will then see if R+6 has enough strength and energy to launch an offensive into Idlib.  If not, then the Russians and Iranians will have to re-think their deployed strength levels in Syria.  pl

LTG Sean MacFarland comments on the SDF, Manbij and Raqqa - TTG

LTG Sean MacFarland is the outgoing commander of Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF–OIR). He made these comments today in his final briefing to the Pentagon press corps by Skype from Baghdad.

***************

The Syrian Democratic Forces control the vast majority of Manbij, and it should fall completely to the group of Kurdish and Arab fighters within “a week or weeks,” said MacFarland, the top commander of the U.S.-led anti-Islamic State group coalition. Local humanitarian groups in Syria estimate the Islamic State group controls about 10 percent of the city that it had held for about two years. “The enemy resistance is getting weaker by the day,” the general said. “Manbij must be pretty important to the enemy because there are a lot of foreign fighters there and they have not cut and run. They are fighting pretty hard in that city.”

The operation has been seen as a proving ground for the Syrian Democratic Forces, MacFarland said. The force has established itself as capable of playing a key role in the eventual fight to reclaim Raqqa, the Islamic State group’s de facto Syrian capital. The United States has provided some arms and training to the force, which successfully captured a large swatch of land in northeastern Syria before mounting its attack on Manbij.

“They have gone a really long way to ensuring us that they can be the defeat mechanism for the enemy in Syria, at least around Raqqa,” said MacFarland, who will turn over command of the coalition later this month to Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend. “They have the wherewithal, the capacity, and the will to close with and defeat the enemy in a dense, urban fight, and they’re doing a very good job of it.” The SDF have been backed by hundreds of coalition airstrikes since launching the assault on Manbij on May 31. To date, more than 2,000 Islamic State fighters have been killed in and around the city, MacFarland said.

Manbij sits on a major supply route running from Raqqa to the outside world through Turkey. The city also has been a key training location for militants fighting in Syria and Iraq and for others charged with conducting terrorist operations outside of those countries.

For the SDF, it will serve as a staging and preparation area for the attacks on Raqqa, about 80 miles southeast of Manbij. MacFarland expects the battle to clear the Islamic State group from Raqqa, which is likely at least several months away, to look much like the Manbij fight. The presence of thousands of civilians have complicated the mission, and it has been slowed at times by the militants’ effective use of explosives and snipers.

At least a dozen SDF fighters have been killed in the battle and hundreds more have been wounded, MacFarland said. “Raqqa will resemble Manbij in many respects,” the general said. “We’ll look at it closely, we’ll study it, and we’ll apply those lessons going forward to make sure we have the right capabilities, force levels and shaping efforts around the operation to ensure success in Raqqa.” (Stars and Stripes)

*****************************

My guess is that the CJTF-OIR plan for the SDF is still under negotiation based on the fact that the SDF is still largely dependent on the military forces of the YPG. The YPG would certainly rather continue the offensive towards Al Bab with the goal of eventually linking up with the YPG in Afrin. The Green Berets, who have been with the YPG/SDF fighters all these months, will be between those Rojava Kurds and the CJTF-OIR in Baghdad. What they can convince both parties about the realities of the battlefield will probably influence the decision. If it was me, I’m afraid I’d be guilty of going native and do what I could to let the YPG continue their drive to the west. What develops between Russia and Turkey over the next few weeks or months will also factor into these negotiations. We’ll see.

TTG

Full text of the Pentagon briefing:

http://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/911009/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-lieutenant-general-sean-macfarland-comm

Updates cost money

SST needs some updated software.  Compatibility issues arise and have to be dealt with.  We also need a new scanner and a multi-function printer would be nice.  If anyone wants to put some money in the "kitty" for these things, the donation button awaits your attention.  pl

On Disagreement By Richard Sale

 

 

People who habitually employ an abusive and bullying tone, are, at bottom,  insecure people with a weak ego. It is weakness that makes such people so aggressive and unkind in their statements. Why are such people so afraid of hearing what they dislike, that they must launch an attack not on what someone has said, but to savage the character of the person who said it?   They act very bellicose, baiting, berating, but that warlike manner is a bit of a sham. It conceals drastic insufficiencies of character and will.  Certain people walk around with such a huge their chip on the shoulder that it renders them unable to stand upright or think straight. An insecure character is always on the verge of mauling anything that does not agree with its own vulgar ideas. Novelty offends them and turns them sour. Their thoughts travel on a well used road and, in spite of contradicting evidence, they  are determined to remain in their usual rut. Anything that collides with their prejudices is seen as treasonous. Their prejudices seem to them to be God’s law, not to be challenged or questioned.

 

A weak ego is always trying to portray itself as a strong one. But a weak ego is ultimately, defeatist. Such an ego glares, paws the ground, lowers its head, but never charges with telling effect. Its role is merely to alarm and disconcert. People gain strength of character by doing selfless and brave things such as being faithful to comrades or enduring grave dangers, and the result is that they forge their own self-respect. People who have a high regard for themselves, as distinguished from conceit, do not bully nor intimate nor try to overbear and bully. Such things are beneath a person of honor.

 

I had my first experience with shady and dangerous characters while working as a legal investigator for the U.S. Senate. I was assigned to make a case about widespread fraud in California nursing homes. The attorney who hired me, a friend, clearly didn’t expect me to succeed. The relevant statutes were expiring, and my three-person staff was inexperienced. Yet within six weeks, we had the FEC undertaking a full investigation, as did the San Diego D.A., as well as the FBI, who launched a  full field probe. 

 

When I announced these results to my bosses, they were glum. I was puzzled. Then I was abruptly fired. Thanks to an article I happened to see in The Wall Street Journal, a law firm hired me to foil a two billion dollar takeover of an international pharmaceutical company, headed by the target I had been pursuing.  At that time, I was getting death threats, hang up calls, etc., because I suspected that the target had ties to organized crime. Thanks to a former California State Trooper, everyday I had to go out and get on my knees to search for bombs strapped to the drive shaft of my car or look for one in the dashboard or the glove box. The takeover collapsed because of  the evidence I uncovered. The friend who had hired me for the Senate, soon became the head of the nursing home association. He had been in their pocket from the first

 

Sir Percy Alleline will return to save us.

 

"As for the clincher about Trump being a Moscow run Manchurian candidate, I would suggest that Morell might have been a top analyst at the Agency but he never acquired or ran an actual spy in his life so his comments about The Donald having been recruited by Putin should be taken for what they are worth, which is precisely nothing. Indeed, as I have noted, calling someone an “unwitting agent” is itself meaningless as it implies being somehow recruited to engage in espionage but without realizing it and without being actually called upon to do anything. I would doubt that many real CIA Operations Officers would agree with Morell’s glib assessment or use such an expression. Trump for all his failings is presumably patriotic and no fool. He just might understand that dealing with a powerful foreign leader who is not completely to one’s liking just might be better than nuclear war. Perhaps Morell and Clinton should consider that option.

Michael Morell is, in fact, a product of Washington groupthink and a major beneficiary of Establishment politics, the very tradition that Hillary Clinton represents."  Phil Geraldi

---------------

Geraldi is a friend and I assure you that, unlike Morell, he has recruited and run many foreign assets (agents). 

The most recent film production of Le Carre's "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" is a very nearly perfect depiction of the result of the process by which political creatures like the character Percy Alleline and jumped up pretty boy types in expensive suits like Morell rise to run once mighty agencies of the secret information trade.   

The vicious but smooth people who rise in such circumstances are always present in every large organization but in the intelligence business more is at stake than money.  The IC sometimes fails?  Yes, it does and when that happens the cause is often the "leadership" of people like Tenet and Morell.

I expect that Morell will be right at the top in the first H. Clinton Administration.  pl 

http://www.unz.com/article/i-ran-the-cia-man-piles-on-trump/

Download artists_versus_bureaucrats....pdf

Diazepam?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-08/something-wrong-hillary-bizarre-behavior-seizure-allegations-raise-doubts-about-her-?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

pl

"Clinton's lead over Trump narrows to less than three points: Reuters/Ipsos poll"

Is this an outlier?  The MJ crowd as well as the show on the Clinton News Network are busy this AM conducting Trump's funeral.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN10G2BQ

Saudi Arabia is our most worthless "ally."

"SA evidently is shipping all this in from their major base at Sharura in the Rub' al-Khali (Empty Quarter).  It goes down the hard surface road to this Wadi'a border crossing (pictured above) and thence down through the Sunni territory of the Hadramaut into Shabwa Governorate and on to Aden.  Some also goes west to Marib Governorate of Yemen.  There are also sea shipments int othe port of Aden directly.

The Saudis are well advised to avoid the Najran to Sa'da to San'a axis.  That is real "Indian Country" from their point view. "  Quoting myself from August, 2015

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/08/httpwwwdefensenewscomstorydefenseinternationalmideast-africa20150806military-reinforcements-enter-yemen-saudi-ar.html

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"Despite the fact that the Saudi-led coalition has launched a full-on attack and invasion of Yemen, a group of poorly armed and poorly trained “militiamen” have successfully defeated the Saudis, Qataris, and Emirates – themselves backed by the United States in terms of intelligence and strategic assistance – and have not only dealt massive blows to coalition forces but have now managed to inflict blows to the Saudis on their own territory.

In a story that went virtually unreported in the West, the Houthis managed to wrest control of three Saudi military bases in Saudi Arabia’s Jizan province, located near the Saudi-Yemen border in January of this year. The bases Jabal al-Doud, al-Aril, and Madba were all seized by Houthi forces and fighters with “allied Popular Committees.”"  mintpress

https://www.mintpressnews.com/houthi-rebels-invade-southern-saudi-arabia-launch-ballistic-missile-counter-offensive/218846/

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Jes' to he'p yeh with the sittee-ayshun in Yayman amungst the Ayrabs,  long ago I used to spend me time amongst the grandfathers of some of the men who now adhere to the Houthi sect of Zeidi Shiism.  This was unusual because the US military attaché usually stayed in Sanaa (the capital) with occasional trips to Hodeidah.  I wandered around.  Why?  I was restless.  In doing that, I came to know the various populations of "Yayman," The Zeidi Shia tribesmen from Sanaa north to the Wadi Najran in Saudi Arabia's Asir Province and east to the Rub' al Khali, the Sunni tribal villagers south and SW of Sanaa, the city people.  I came to know them well.

The Zeidi hill men who now adhere to Houthism (?) are in the main, runty, stunted, Qat chewing drug addicts who drink Red Label by the quart in the afternoon to come down from their Qat high.   They are insular, xenophobic (this extends often to the people in the next valley or on the next ridge).  They are heavily armed with infantry weapons such as the AK, RPG, and mortars.  Many of them served in the Yemeni Army, defected to their tribe and brought bits of gear like tanks and anti-aircraft weapons with them.  They LOVE to fight.  Together with the pro-Salih elements of the Yemeni Army they have whipped the Saudi hirelings and their mercenary friends just about every time they have met. pl

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"Israel has encouraged its oil-rich Saudi ally to find out more African allies in its interminable conflict in neighboring Yemen, and curb the increasing influence of Iran in the African continent.  Mr. al-Jubeir has allegedly conveyed a message from the Saudi ambitious minister of war, Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud, luring the desperate and destitute African nation into joining the war by promising unimaginable sums of money,

Saudi Arabia is looking for further 5,000 Senegalese child soldiers–each soldier shall receive $ 5.000 per month, a mouth-watering offer —to initiate the ultimate decisive battle for Sana’a (the Yemeni capital city) in order to recapture it from Yemeni revolutionaries."  AMN

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It doesn't get better than this in terms of historic irony. 

France once owned Senegal.  Volunteer professional Senegalese artillery units in the French Colonial Army were famed for their steadfast service.  Now the Saudis, who, IMO, have only regretfully and perhaps not altogether given up enslaving Blacks want to hire Africans to fight the Yemenis in a knock down, drag-out fight for Sanaa?

It doesn't get better than that.  Hang in there, Chihuahua!    FIDO!    pl

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/saudi-fm-recruit-thousands-soldiers-african-tour/

All four candidates should have independent med. exams

The United States deserves a chief executive who is in good health.  The four of them (and the VP candidates as well) should submit themselves to independent complete examinations before election day.  pl 

http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/what-did-dnc-viewers-find-hillary-tongue/

Interesting material from "Conflicts Forum"

Conflicts Forum distributes articles and reports that we think might be of interest – in doing so, CF is not endorsing the content of the articles or papers, nor do they reflect any corporate view of CF. They are articles, reports, papers, etc. that we think might be of interest.

Comments on the battle for Aleppo Elijah Magnier 

(Posted on Twitter end July/early August)

https://twitter.com/ejmAlrai/ 

There are 11 Jihadists and 11 non-Jihadists groups, all together in this Aleppo battle, working together and fighting side by side.

#ISIS is d weakest force n #Syria, easy 2overcome. Nusra, foreign fighters & Jihadists, enjoying "western blessing" r much stronger

Previous information confirmed Jabhat al-Nusra (JFS) is holding bodies of #Russia officers & pilots & that Ahrar al-Sham was the negotiator

"Public institution 4prisoners" is asking: 1. "liberation of all prisoners held by regime & Hezbollah" 2. "Lifting of siege on all cities".

Rebels gathered mltnts from different frnts 4Aleppo. If this fail, it will be a hard hit 4long,w/ blame 2each other

All ground troops are under Iran command. Russia coordinates with Iran ( country) not with groups.

Although Nusra & rebels maintain media black out, their attack on #Aleppo Ramous and Mansoura failed to achieve the desired objective.

4000 Nujaba', 4000 Fatimiyoun & #Hezbollah in #Aleppo to face Nusra, Jihadists & rebels.

Fatimiyoun are badly trained, unprepared: Iran unwilling to inject adequate forces

Russia is aggressively refreshing Syria army armament (that is new info)

If Iran injects more troops, regional countries will behave differently with rebels

Russian AF is active daily but rebels, including Nusra, injected large number of militants. No 2be underestimated

It was only due to Russia air support that SAA and allies managed to circle Aleppo+

Russia gave up on advertising strikes but these are tens every single day non stop

Russia was complaining about lack of enough Iranian forces on the ground. Nobody can win by AF only

Russia no longer believe in #USA will of cease-fire or peace process. Aleppo is important 4 everybody

No Iranian regular troops, just usual advisors. Iran allies r deployed own this front (Aleppo). Russia wants Aleppo more than Iran

#Russia is planning to increase its Air Force in #Syria. The battle of #Aleppo seems a Russian battle.

Elijah Magnier is a leading Arab war correspondent writing for the Kuwaiti newspaper, Al-Rai. 

Open thread on news media quality

 

The Mika mommy was on the warpath again today telling the token GOP housling Michael Steele  "I don't like what you say."  Then later at the end of her daily lesson to us all she told the male hostages on stage, "I want all of you to go home and think about what you said today."

The TV news media are so clearly engaged in campaigning for Clinton that the programming is difficult to watch.  "Guests" are harangued, badgered and pushed toward a rejection of Trump.

Is this news?

Negative material on HC is notably absent.  There has been some questioning of her fantasy answers about what Comey said to Congress, but not much.

I think it is worth having an open thread about the quality of news media.  pl

Mika B. needs an "intervention."

You should watch this MJ segment from today.  Earlier she ripped up Michael Steele a former RNC head and a housling at NBC/MSNBC over his audacity as an uppity housling for having the audacity to defend Trump.  This violates a prime directive 0f Mikanation which enjoins that African-Americans cannot be abused on TV, or anywhere.

In the tape below she moves on to Michael Wolff, clearly a tribal urbanite, who has had the audacity to write an article stating the obvious truth that the US is dividing into two nations along 1850s lines, but with different boundaries, perhaps metro/vs other.  He points to the evident unknownness and inscrutability of the people at Cleveland attending the GOP convention to such as he and Mika.  He then says we are dividing, perhaps, irrevocably.  Mika then throws a fit abusing him for daring to imagine that Trump people are other than ignorant and misinformed.  Clearly she is sure that only her side is possessed of virtue.

IMO MSNBC should give her a rest, somewhere, anywhere.  She should take Joe with her.  Willy Geist would do an admirable job of running the show until they retune someday ...  pl

http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/2016-duck-dynasty-vs-lena-dunham-election-738063427840

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Wolff_(journalist)

"How a Secretive Branch of ISIS Built a Global Network of Killers" - TTG

There is an excellent piece in yesterday’s New York Times about a clandestine intelligence organization within IS responsible for orchestrating most of the recent terror attacks worldwide. Rather than summarize the piece myself, I copied the intro put out by the author, Rukmini Callimachi, on her twitter account. I took the liberty of editing some of the twitterese shortcuts and putting it in a format that many of us old coots find easier to read. 

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Good morning all, today I am publishing a piece that was weeks in the making and involved days of 3 am bedtimes.  It's the story of a secretive body inside ISIS known as the Emni, which is responsible for identifying recruits for suicide attacks overseas. The story is based on over 100,000 pages of French, Belgian, German and Austrian investigative documents post-Nov 13 attacks. But the real scoop is that we got a sit-down jailhouse interview with German ISIS operative Harry Sarfo, who was recruited by the Emni. Please take the time to see the amazing video by colleagues @andrewglazer @benjaminlaffin and Derek Reich. 

Among the key takeaways: ISIS is recruiting from all over Europe. Last year, they were focusing on Germany/England because network weak. As of April 2015, ISIS felt so confident of its network in France that members of Emni began laughing hysterically when discussing it. By contrast in Germany, they had tried to send operatives but all at that point had chickened out / gotten cold feet. 

I have been tracking this secretive group inside ISIS ever since the Paris attacks, when we learned that commander Abaaoud was from Emni. 

First credit where credit is due: Months before me, @michaeldweiss interviewed an ISIS defector who named Emni. Michael's piece was the first indication of role of body. The ”Aha" moment for me was when French interrogation records named Emni as the group behind 11/13. What we learned from jailhouse interview of Sarfo, a German recruited by Emni is that body is building global portfolio of terrorists. 

Sarfo explained that head of Emni is Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, the spokesman of ISIS. He called him "The Big Man" behind attacks in Europe. Adnani's role is confirmed by interrogation records of ISIS operatives dispatched from Syria to carry out attacks. Earliest date from 2014. Among ISIS members who spoke of Adnani's role is Faiz Bouchrane, French citizen who said he was "ordered in person" by Adnani to attack. Further details come from Nicolas Moreau, an ISIS member who ran a restaurant in Raqqa and explained how Emni recruited Europeans to attack. 

Outlines of the group which we glimpse through interrogation docs is fully fleshed out by Sarfo who details how Emni has different departments. There is a department "for European affairs," "for Asian affairs," and for "Arab affairs." They recruit citizens of each region to go back. Sarfo and French intelligence documents say it was Emni who trained the gunman who opened fire on the beach in Sousse, Tunisia and Bardo Museum.  Sarfo says for key countries where they wish to export terror they appoint a national in Syria. There is an "emir" for Bangladesh/Indonesia. Recall how many of recent directed attacks were carried out by European jihadists with long record of petty crime? Abaaoud/Abdeslam etc? This is no accident says Sarfo. He says they look for people who have a criminal network they can tap into. In Asia, they look for ex-AQ. So the idea that they specifically tapped ex-JMB members in Bangladesh should be no surprise. That's on purpose. 

Among the big revelations that Sarfo shared is system of "clean men" used by ISIS to incite terror in the West without leaving trace to IS. The idea is that ISIS has "hundreds" of operatives that have gone to ground in Europe and beyond. They radicalize new converts to Islam.  The new converts are "clean" / not in database of European intelligence. These "clean men," says Sarfo are used to link with attackers. Attackers are radicalized virtually via people in Syria but the final handoff including help getting arms etc are done via "clean men.” Sarfo believes it is these "clean men" who were used to pick up pledge videos from Wurzburg, Ansbach and Normandy attackers. What his testimony suggests is that authorities should take special care when examining contacts of gunmen pledging allegiance to IS. The fact that they cannot find a direct link to ISIS may well be by design, says Sarfo.

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In a comment I made after the Nice, France terror attack, I surmised that there was a very competent IS case officer who spotted, assessed, recruited, trained and tasked that angry Tunisian petty thief to drive a truck through the Bastille Day crowd. I suppose this very competent case officer was/is part of Abu Muhammad al-Adnani’s shadowy Emni organization. Clearly they have mastered all the skills of non-technical tradecraft, including courier networks, as well as the newer skills of social media. Those “old school” spy skills will not be easily countered by our employment of SIGINT and the “collect it all” mentality of building and maintaining massive databases. At great expense, I might add.

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According to her NYT bio, Ms. Callimachi has done some impressive and extensive work covering Islamic extremism. I’ll definitely be reading more of her work. Her most recent NYT piece, "How a Secretive Branch of ISIS Built a Global Network of Killers," along with the film about her interview with Harry Sarfo, can be found here.

Here’s a link to the Michael Weiss piece on “Confessions of an ISIS Spy” that Ms. Callimachi referred to in her twitter intro.

TTG

The first six months of a Trump Administration

I don't think there will be a Trump Administration.  A combination of his errant mouth and Twitter fingers and a relentless 24/7 media campaign against him will be too much but this is worth a try as a balancing exercise.  pl

Ross & Tabler on the desirability of attacking Syria

" ... the Obama administration’s plan, opposed by many within the C.I.A., the State Department and the Pentagon, is flawed. Not only would it cement the Assad government’s siege of the opposition-held city Aleppo, it would push terrorist groups and refugees into neighboring Turkey. Instead, the United States must use this opportunity to take a harder line against Mr. Assad and his allies."  NY Times oped piece by Ross and Tabler

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An obvious "exaggeration."   IMO these two people are well known in Washington as Zionist operatives.   IMO their bleating is demonstrative of Israeli government concern that their strategy of weakening Iran by destroying the Syrian government is not working.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/opinion/the-case-for-finally-bombing-assad.html

"Syrian govt forces roll back rebel gains in Aleppo" Daily Star & AFP

 

"Syrian government forces bolstered by Russian airstrikes recaptured territory overnight in the southwest suburbs of the battleground city of Aleppo, rolling back the short-lived gains of a rebel offensive.

Rebels and their extremist allies launched an assault Sunday in a bid to ease a more than two-week government siege of opposition-held districts of the city.

But government fighters have put up a fierce fightback, retaking several positions from beleaguered rebel forces, activists said Wednesday.

The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said government forces seized two hilltops and two small villages in the southwest suburbs of Aleppo late Tuesday.

'The regime is launching counter-attacks to absorb the fierce rebel offensive,' said Observatory head Rami Abdel-Rahman."  Daily Star & AFP

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 IMO the crisis has passed from the R+6 point of view.   The rebel iihadis will soon begin to withdraw from their temporary gains having lost a lot of men (800-1000).  The external attacks having failed, the attacks from within the encirclement will also end as the word is passed of the failure of the relief force.

In the north end of the Aleppo battle, the Tiger Forces Brigade centered task force is fighting its way through the Handarat Palestinian Refugee camp with the assistance of the Palestinian militia who live there.  This was thought to be a back-up plan to provide for re-supply of West Aleppo in the event that the jihadi effort in the SW of the perimeter had succeeded.  Now that seems a danger passed the Handarat operation can be seen as part of the process of gradually shrinking the rebel jihadi held area in East Aleppo.

BTW, there are no longer many "moderate" FSA unicorns in East Aleppo and most of these are more in the nature of press liaisons for foreign Borgist media.

The YPG/SDF offensive against IS east of Aleppo is playing a major role in the fighting t Aleppo by "fixing" forces in position so that they cannot be used against R+6.

IMO an R+6 occupation of East Aleppo and the large number of casualties suffered by the rebels will set the stage for a negotiated end of the war in western Syria.

The war against IS will, IMO last for at least two or three years longer.  pl  

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Aug-03/365332-syrian-govt-forces-roll-back-rebel-gains-in-aleppo-activists.ashx

"Ceteris paribus" by Balint Somkuti

 

Ceteris paribus is an economical term meaning we examine a system with all variables fixed except one. I use it in a sense describing the contemporary official, and public opinion, or espirit du temps, which has a deep and commonly shared conviction that nothing changes and even if it does the change is gradual or negligible and no significant unforeseeable variations are present or even imaginable. The above is especially true in international relations, brexit notwithstanding. A recent exchange of comments here in this blog gave me the idea to write about this serious conceptional flaw. But to really examine it we have dig a bit deeper.

 

They say history is like a giant stream. It goes on her own way, it is very difficult to influence it, and has some nasty surprises even for those who claim to know her. But giant streams do not pop up out of nowhere. They have a point of origin, they collect the water of many smaller rivers even subterranean creeks, and while everybody can see where they flow tracing back where they really come from is much more difficult. Same is true for history. You cannot really predict what is going to happen since many (most) factors are unmeasurable, invisible. Of course those who scientify everything might claim otherwise, but Nate Silver's magic works only with the most simple binary variable. (democrat or republican, 0 or 1).

 

It is very convenient to think that nothing really changes since it has not really changed in the last 70 years, not to mention the last 25. The last major quake -the collapse of the USSR- happened with no serious consequences to the western world so business is as usual ever since. The feeling, perception -call it whatever you would like to- is deeply rooted in the minds of the western-European and American elite is that the supremacy of their neoliberal culture is universal, timeless and progressive. To challenge that notion  is heresy, betrayal and treason. Every single opinion is to be tolerated to the most extreme except the one which questions the 'end of history'. Those who dare to deviate from the official, but flexibly and ambiguously put ideology are to be excommunicated, and labeled as criminals. Who dares to speak against the widespread and sophisticated homosexual propaganda is labeled homophobic meaning a hater. Those who dare to raise the issue of migration are labeled racists. This non-sense goes as far as one of my friends -who works for a giant German company as deputy chief of security tasked with securing the uninterrupted production (preparing for the unforeseeable that is)- was called in many occasions paranoid by his superiors for doing his job he is paid for!

 

Even though the majority digs his/her head in the sand 'facts are stubborn things' to quote John Adams. Those who care to look see the gigantic shift coming. According to Didier Sornier as the central banks' efforts will prove to be ineffective to cover the huge gap between the real and financial sector by the mid 2020's latest. The crisis which has been boiling since 1980 when the developed world spent significantly more for the first time in history than it has earned. As other similar system level crises raise their ugly heads they will come together to form a perfect storm in around ten to fifteen years.

 

Like their American counterpart the Borg the Eurocrats are unable to change, or even see the necessity of change. Even if Trump does not win in November 2016 the factors leading to his rise will only be intensified by the Borg Queen's rule, creating a granted victorious second coming for him or a person with similar charisma and/or personality. If this does not happen in 2020 or latest 2024 American Civil War v2.0 is almost sure to erupt. But by that time there won't be an EU either. Even if there probably wont be a Grexit, Auxit, or a Huxit the EU cannot remain the same as the recent Visegrad 4 meeting has demonstrated. The  pacifist Germans -while conveniently blaming all international fiascos they have been involved in on the Americans- wont be able to continue building their Fourth Reich in the disguise of the EU. Even though the Fourth's ideology is the complete opposite of the attempted Third Reich's yet it is still carried out with the tempo, the unforgiveness, the arrogance and the iron hand of its predecessor. On the other hand our American friends wont be able to continue to siphon off the cream of other countries' work through the globalized, but firmly american controlled financial system, and the dollar. How convenient that a regulation free international environment favors mostly, almost exclusively the monopolistic giant American multinational companies? Don't get me wrong I would not like to see a third German attempt on a forceful European unification, nor a chaotic international order with no rules and no number one player. But we are about to see a sea of change, this or that way. A change which is incomprehensible for most westerners.

 

With the decay of the last existing ideological heir of the French Revolution – liberalism, the other two being nationalism and communism- we are left with no ideological base. As the hypocrisy, the hollowness, and the aggression of '(neo)liberalism' becomes more and more apparent the search for a new ideology begins, or has already begun. With all values relativized, all knowledge questioned, all groundbreaking scientific findings twisted to achieve insignificant political or financial gains there is little left. These are superstition, and religion. Both of which is outside the realm of the mind, and therefore that of reason. Let me ask the rhetorical question what was before the Age of Reason?

 

If you start to compare the features of the late roman age, say late 4th, early 5th century AD, with the symptoms of the contemporary world you will see remarkable similarities. Slow but visible crackdown of the financial system. Gradual disappearance of (central) control over territory, business processes and beliefs. Emerging civilian disobedience for various reasons. Lack of commonly accepted values. 'Barbarians' on, and within the borders in the old and the new meaning alike (barbaros originally meant 'not one of us'). Still superior, but dwindling efficiency of the armed forces (see socii, auxiliarii, numeri, foederati). Emerging competing powers capable of achieving parity. And the list goes on.

 

We only can hope that the next Dark Ages will not last for hundreds of years, before a new system emerges. 

 

"You've been Trumped" a documentary

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9tkPALA42A

I do not support Trump and will not vote for him or Clinton. IMO Trump is a man limited by his own demons as is she. He is trapped in a mentality that is altogether focused on closing deals. In that mentality the closer fits into the end state of the deal as the person, usually of high rank in the group seeking closure who wines, dines, flatters, tries to intimidate, abuses psychologically, whatever it takes to get a signature. After that the closer walks away and on to the next closure where the process is repeated. In that context what was said or done in the last closure is irrelevant and the closer is "safe" from blow-back over that. The handlers of the deal will take care of that. For Trump the idea that people will hold it against him that he is an abusive bully is surprising. This results IMO in his fragile ego requiring him to fight back angrily like a child in a schoolyard.  His fragile ego also prevents him from ever, ever admitting error even in the most trivial errors of grammar, i.e., "they don't write good."  From the point of view of the Republicans it really is a shame.  With any of several candidates they could have beaten her.  pl

"Turkey Demands to Stop Bombings on Aleppo City" South Front

"All attacks on the city of Aleppo, in northern Syria, including air strikes, must be stopped immediately, the Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, said on Monday.

“All attacks on Aleppo, including air strikes, must be discontinued immediately. Turkey’s support for the Syrian people will be continued,” the Anadolu news agency quoted the words of Cavusoglu.

The statement was made during the meeting between Mevlut Cavusoglu and the General Coordinator of the High Negotiations Committee (the main opposition bloc in Syria), Riad Hijab.

It seems that the resetting of relations between Russia and Turkey has ended before it could properly begin."  South Front

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Or What?   What on earth does this man think he can threaten Russia with?   

https://southfront.org/turkey-demands-to-stop-attacks-on-aleppo-city/

"Clinton Cash" a documentary

Just watched this.  It is well worth seeing and has been watched on U tube by 1.5 million as of now.  Send me a link to an analogous film on Trump.  pl

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LYRUOd_QoM

Clinton Adminstration's First Six Months

Rather than try to hold a War Gaming exercise on the future history of a Hillary Clinton Administration's first six month at home and abroad, I ask those interested to give me their forecasts as comments below. 

This will be followed by a similar exercise concerning a Trump Administration.  pl