Who would the Russian "hackers" have been?

" The GRU gathers human intelligence through military attaches and foreign agents. It also maintains significant signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery reconnaissance (IMINT) and satellite imagery capabilities."^[7] GRU Space Intelligence Directorate has put more than 130 SIGINT satellites into orbit. GRU and KGB SIGINT network employed about 350,000 specialists."  GRU wiki

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Let us assume for the sake of argument that the Mookster preppie fellow had it right and that the Rooshans collected (hacked if you wish) their way into the DNC to scoop up the correspondence that has "done in" Debbie W-S.  I would expect that this "lovely" stuff (from the intelligence perspective) would have been passed to WikiLeaks after laundry service had been done on it through several cut-outs.  It is unlikely that there was a pleasant luncheon "pass" at Tatiana's Tea Room in Kensington.  It is quite possible that Assange has never been forced to acknowledge the original source, even to himself.  Cool!

What is the chance that Assange has in his paws a lot more goodies like the DNC e-mails?  I would estimate the chance to be around 150% and they are probably not the sum total of the SIGINT products possessed by the collector. 

When can we expect to see more of the "take?"  Well, pilgrims, I would expect the "hammer" to drop unpredictably but effectively after HC is nominated.  The Democrats will by then be fully committed to HC's candidacy and a roll-out of various interesting bits of news would devastate her effort.

Is "Trump is a Russian Agent!" likely to be an effective defense?  I doubt it.   Such a Mookian meme contains the awful defect of the absence of a credible denial of the veracity of the e-mails.   One could claim some are false, but which ones?   Comey has told us under oath that her handling of classified information was "extremely careless."

Sooo, if the Russians did it, (and there are many other possible collectors) who in particular did it?  I vote for the GRU.  I used to know them well.  They could do this "without breaking a sweat."  This kind of thing is one of their core missions.  pl  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Intelligence_Directorate

Comments

[Herb]

I imagine it is well within their capability to hack our voting machines and election process as well. I doubt that system, run by counties, precincts and states, with software and hardware provided by commercial entities like Diebold, is fortified to the level required to eliminate determined state-run interference.

Obviously they have had this capability for a long time, the question is why pursue this so openly now? Putin is obviously making a very clear statement that meddling directly in our elections is no longer off the table. This is a very dangerous escalation he is pursuing.

[C Webb]

Bit more info here...
https://guccifer2.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/faq/

[AEL]

I don't think the Russian government did it. They tend to be conservative players. The downside to exposure is considerable and the possible upside (Trump being elected) seems to be medium at best (Trump being notably unpredictable).

A more likely scenario is that some ratfucker in Trump's (notably ratfucker heavy) campaign either hired a bunch of hackers to do "active" oppo research (and got a windfall or windfalls) or they paid some independent hacker a bounty for the fruit of prior "research".

Of course, there are many downsides to blaming it directly on Trump. The Russians are a much better scapegoat. Hence the noise about Putin. The hackers themselves would likely want to leave a trail of breadcrumbs leading away from themselves and towards some other villain.

[Nightsticker]

Col Lang,

If I were running this Opn, I would arrange for
a small, sample but powerful
wikileak release this Wed morning that would
be enough to: ruin the party; prevent any
momentum; rattle the candidate; and set
the stage,and prepare the audience,
as in a Tragedy, for a series of ever
more damaging releases as the campaign
goes on.

Nightsticker
USMC 65-72
FBI 72-96

Nightsticker

[Sam Peralta]

Sir

I find it interesting that the MSM is focused on the hacking and not the content of the hacked emails and lax IT security.

Hackers will hack and there are many of them - from intelligence agencies to freelancers. A good friend of mine works at JPL and he's told me the Chinese are constantly attempting to hack in. Not only traditional IT intrusion but also the communications with spacecraft.

In the case of the DNC hack the outrage should not be the "Russians are interfering in our elections" - that should be expected, BUT, the DNC rigging the Democratic primary and actively taking sides. And then to rub it in, Debbie becomes honorary chair of Hillary's campaign!

Those supporting Hillary are not concerned about the role of the DNC in undermining Sanders campaign. They're only worried about the Russians. The question is what about Sanders and his supporters? Will they play puppy dog or make a stink?

[Allen Thomson]

What about FAPSI (or whatever it's called these days)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FAPSI

[JMH]

Not smart to scream Russia, the FBI will now be all up in DNC business.

[turcopolier]

Allen Thompson

FAPSCI is still around as part of FSB but the GRU SIGINT service was always a more potent outfit IMO and therefore I think they are more likely. pl

[turcopolier]

Nightsticker

Agreed. pl

[Trey N]

Speaking of spooks:

http://journal-neo.org/2016/07/25/what-is-fethullah-gulen/

The recent bungled coup in Turkey appears to have the fingerprints of the CIA all over it, and is almost as big a Charlie Foxtrot as the pizza parlor fiasco that got most of their contacts in Iran caught and executed.

Given how their Syrian project is turning out as well (or rather, badly), it appears that the GRU/KGB/whatever Russian agency is as far superior in the espionage tradecraft department as Russian military weapons are to the F-35 and the Littoral Combat Ship....

[michael brenner]

The Texas heat has a cumulative enervating effect. So, that may explain why my grey cells are finding it hard to figure out the reasons for all this excitement. Everyone knew what shenanigans the lady from Florida has been up to - many far more egregious than trying to plant a question as to the depth of Bernie's belief in Yahweh. The Russians? Don't they have Pokemon as a distraction over there?

I propose that everyone take an August holiday and devote their leisure to viewing some of those marvelous European detective mysteries that are screened for adults. Very refreshing.

[Allen Thomson]

BTW, the SVR HQ at Yasenevo has expanded considerably in recent years. No idea what's going on in the new buildings, but since everybody's favorite prefix is cyber- these days, that seems like a possibility. And the DNC email leak would fall under the rubric of "active measures," something the former KGB 1st Main Directorate liked to do.

https://fas.org/irp/eprint/svr-expansion.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_measures

[Margaret Steinfels]

Cui Bono?

1. The American electorate? Rightly or wrongly, it comes to believe Putin is helping Trump; and then?

2. Trump Campaign Manager Manfort and the young Trumplings? Isn't the Observer linked in the first story below owned by Trump's son-in-law? If so, we have mischief making as the Democratic convention opens; Polls shift to Trump, and then?

3. FBI? Obama orders Lynch to bring charges as a result of the leak?

4. Tim Kaine? Becomes the candidate after nominee Cinton is forcred to resign?

5. Alfred E. Neuman? Who or Where is a third-party, not Russian, not Trumpist that would like to see the campaign turn into a free-for-all?

[turcopolier]

TreyN

"appears to have the fingerprints of the CIA all over it," This is merely an assertion on your part, an assertion that flies in the face of the policy of the Obama Administration to support Erdogan. I suppose you know that the CIA does not run a foreign policy different from that of the president. pl

[ISL]

All:

For those who enjoy cool graphics, this link shows a small glimpse of the extent and magnitude of ongoing cyber attacks globally.

https://cybermap.kaspersky.com/

this is a small subset of total attacks as it seems to be those their software detects, but it gives an idea of the scale, and probably does not include gov't efforts. US is #1 most attached, Russia #3.

I do not use Karpinsky, nor recommend/not recommend it. I mostly rely on my firewall, assume all emails are public, and run Norton periodically - it imposes too great a cpu hit to run continuously.

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So far, based on the polls, the DNC memes against Trump after the RNC have been quite ineffective, despite coverage by most media. I suspect the same is true for this new silly one.

[turcopolier]

Margaret Steinfels

So, your theory is that the Trumpians hired the hackers and provided Assange with the material? pl

[ronmac]

My two cents on "who did it" Bill Clinton

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

Very funny commentary on Trump etc. by Yu. Latynina, the very famous Russian commentator of Radio show Echo of Moscow.

She is always funny and in opposition to Putin, besides she is very well informed person in history, economic, and sociology matters.

http://echo.msk.ru/programs/code/1806684-echo/

Check with Google Trsnlate

[Sam Peralta]

Margaret

There are plenty of hackers around. Many do it just because. The larger point is that both Hillary and the DNC know that. So, in the case of Hillary why did she communicate important classified information via unsecure private email servers? And, in the case of the DNC, who was responsible for IT security and what measures did they take?

None of this matters to Hillary supporters as they have already drunk the kool-aid. The question is does it matter to Sanders supporters and what will they do?

[Margaret Steinfels]

I have no theory. I have no facts nor conspiracy theories. Idle Speculation!

I take the DNC e-mails to be a separate instance of hacking. Was it the Russians? Was it one of Bernie's faithful followers. Was it one of Wasserman-Schultz's many enemies?

The Trumpettes don't have to have any hackers, any e-mails--all they have are rumors, at least at the moment.

How about Netanyahu? A recent friendship with Putin might put him in mind to help out.

[michael brenner]

AEL makes the essential point: the argument that Putin and the Ruskies were behind the caper is unpersuasive. Putin is a very sober man with an evident preference for order. He is by no means a risk-taker. His action on Crimea was deliberate and based on a long thought-through appraisal of long-term security interests and a strategy for addressing a US-led threat to them. His many speeches and public statements represent what probably is the most candid, rigorously outlined expression of a power's overall view of the world that I ever have seen. It leaves no place for welcoming an impetuous ignoramus as head of the world's dominant power. That for Putin, would be a nightmare scenario.

[Tyler]

Amazing that after the DNC got caught orchestrating the media responses to Trump, the media gets on line with "Donaldovitch Trumpinsky takes his orders from Russia!"

The lack of self awareness and hubris of these people knows no limits.

Re: Putin/Trump - Both the men are nationalists, and clear headed rationalists at that. The men are also both alpha males, and alpha males respect each other's territory. I have no doubt they will have a fine working relationship.

[Tyler]

Michael Brenner,

I liked you more when you were claiming the Salafists killing innocents in Europe had no ties to Islamic terrorist orgs versus this poor man's Douglas C. Neidermeyer telling everyone to not panic.

[Margaret Steinfels]

And then....there are all the 13-year old geniuses at work in Chappaqua, NY. (Isn't that where Clinton's server was located?) They walk the Clinton's dog(s); they go into her basement; they stick a USB stick into the machine...and there you have it!

[Sylvia Demarest]

"I suppose you know that the CIA does not run a foreign policy different from that of the president. pl"
Do you think this has always been the case? Have you read or heard of "The Devil's Chessboard" by David Talbot?
Talbot asserts that the CIA under Allen Dulles defied, upended, and even derailed the policies of several Presidents including Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennedy. I recently read the book and was shocked at the arrogance of Dulles, his CIA cronies, and his deep state backers among the financial elite. Talbot also presents rather persuasive circumstantial evidence of the potential involvement of Dulles confidents within the CIA in the Kennedy assassination. I have no background in intelligence so I am not in a position to judge what Talbot reports.