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29 July 2016

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rjj

response noted.

Jack

Bandolero

Great job with your forecast in the war game. To predict last November that Trump would win the GOP nomination is very good, since so few expected that.

We're in agreement that many of my fellow citizens don't vote based on great knowledge of policy and history. It's all about gut feel and perception of how the candidate aligns with their beliefs and values. And in many cases gut dislike and even hatred for a candidate.

I disagree however that there are many "powerful" forces backing Trump. In fact I think it is just the opposite where even forces that traditionally support the GOP nominee are opposed to him. I argue that what we are seeing is actually rather unprecedented in that the preponderance of forces that comprise the "rich and powerful" as you label them are all aligned with the Hillary campaign. The majority of the corporate media and the pundit class are actively campaigning against Trump. The big money from Wall St to Healthcare are pouring in millions into Hillary's campaign and the Super PACs that support her. The majority of the political establishment of both parties are against Trump.

That's why I believe it will be an uphill battle for Trump as his opponents grind away that he is an unhinged, racist, fascist, crazy man. The next reincarnation of Hitler and Stalin. I see the vitriol on my twitter feed of mostly Wall St finance people.

IMO, if Hillary is victorious this fall we will enter a period of extreme darkness as conflicts including the domestic social and cultural divides as well as the hegemonic ones overseas will escalate. And add to the mix the huge instabilities in global finance. The potential for systemic conflagration will then rise very high.

Margaret Steinfels

Colonel Lang:

Insofar as I was born in Chicago and baptized a Catholic and a Democrat, you could say I am a Dem partisan. For some years now, and for various policy reasons, I have been a homeless Democrat. So I know how many Republican partisans must be feeling now.

As to the Rodham family drama, I know very little. What you write about mother and father Rodham sounds right. The Rodham brothers, as I recall, were something of a nuisance during Bill Clinton's presidency, but they seem to have gone off-screen.

The Rodhams lived in one of Chicago's commuter suburbs not far from O'Hare airport. Like most Chicago suburbs it was staunchly Republican, and if I remember correctly this one may have had a serious John Birch contingent. The politics were anti-Chicago. My family would never have gone there!

Hillary Clinton has written about her break from this politics. She credits the youth minister of the local Methodist church with having introduced her and her cohort to inner-city Chicago and contact with African-Americans (tutoring was big then, but I can't recall the project). Off she went to Wellesely and the rest is history. Perhaps her father did not see eye-to-eye with her sympathies and new political views. It may also be that he was a somewhat traditional pater familias against whom she had to rebel and they were never reconciled. Maybe he was just a drinker--so many possibilities.

Perhaps her foreign policy tendencies are simply the leftovers from 1950s Cold War America (we did have to hide under our desks during air raid drills). If so, they may be confounded with the R2P impulses of some of her Democratic colleagues, e.g., Samantha Power. Since she is likely to be our next president, whatever any of us think of her policies, we should hope (and pray) that she will avoid the very obvious missteps that lie in wait.

That's all I know!

turcopolier

Maragaret Steinfels

Well, much of America is in rebellion against people like her but Trump is politically inept and driven to lash out at any opposition, HC is probably going to be elected. She likes to talk about the nuclear codes but she will have an unfettered ability to launch a nuclear attack when she has them. She and her pals have already announced that the first thing they will do in office is "re-examine" US policy in Syria and eastern Europe. I take that to mean there will be a greatly increased participation in that war and a desire to bait the Russians. "He may have been a drinker?" I'll drink to that. pl

Jack

David

As you're pointing out when the archives are examined there is a lot of faith-based thinking on the US side during the Cold War. Our biases drove our analysis and reality didn't enter into the mix very much. The Cuban crisis is a good example where we deployed missiles in Turkey with Kruschev responding with missiles in Cuba. This mindset prevails even today. Situations are escalated with no thought about potential blowback. Those who promote restraint are vilified or ignored and the Turgidsons are in key decision making roles. But unfortunately this faith-based policy making is not only in geopolitical affairs it is also at the heart of the financial system.

As you noted in the thread of "Trump is a nationalist", Bill White was using common sense and warning to rollback leverage but that went against the speculative profit making at that point. Now, faith-based policies are getting even more unmooored from reality. I don't know if you saw it but I responded to your comment there only yesterday.

different clue

Lesly,

Well I didn't and I don't expect Sanders to do that. So I am not one of the noble young purists running around feeling betrayed by the Sanders endorsement for Clinton. It's what he promised to do if he didn't get nominated.

But yes, Sanders and the Bernistas were naive about the depths of Clintobamacrat treachery and deceit and lawbreaking. What will their rude awakening lead them to do?

different clue

Margaret Steinfels,

If fracking ends up polluting that farmland and/or its subsurface water to the point where it is no longer mortgageable or insurable, what will happen to the local economy and society of those fracked-up areas?

pob2

Isn't it about time that someone asked the cartoon messiah "Have you no sense of decency, sir? At long last, have you left no sense of decency?"? Perhaps he might seek advice from the ghastly shade of his old friend Mr Cohn.

different clue

Stuart Wood,

Your legacy views have been overtaken by events. President Clinton began the process of making the Democrats NO better for the economy . . . with his pro 1%/ anti-99% Free Trade Agreements. And the answer to the charge that they were "Republican" Free Trade Agreements because it was Reagan and Bush who co-negotiated them along with Mulroney and de Gortari of Mexico (for instance) , is that Republican Presidents could not get them passed or ratified. It took the Nixon-goes-to-China Democrat Clinton to do that.

Margaret Steinfels

Her inauguration is 5.5 months away. Maybe Russia, Turkey, Israel, and Assad will have settled matters per the comments on "30 Syria-2016 just to thwart her nuclear ambitions!

turcopolier

Margaret Steinfels

Israel is one of the main instigators of the civil war in Syria, perhaps the most important since they sold the idea in Washington. Do you think they are going to help end the war without destruction of the Syrian state? They are providing medical support to IS fighters IN Israel. And then there are Ukraine, the Baltics and other putative triggers. How do you think Nuland, Fluornoy and Nuland are going to deal with that much power? If they have as many daddy issues as HC we are going to be toast, literally. pl

 Ishmael Zechariah

Ms. Steinfels,

re: "Families who lost sons/daughter/spouses/parents etc. probably have many different responses, mostly about the death itself, then perhaps the place and the war in which he/she was killed, and then maybe foreign policy. There is a chain of causation and not everyone pursues it."

Have you ever lost kin in combat in the ME? How many folks do you know who have lost kin of the first degree in these adventures in the ME? Please ask them. Most of them would will tell you that the first question one asks is 'was my loss worth it?", "Did my son/husband/relative die protecting his country and his people". These folks are not idiots.

If you read Bachevich: https://theintercept.com/2016/04/23/andrew-bacevich-and-americas-long-misguided-war-to-control-the-greater-middle-east/ , you will find yourself and hillary therein. Tis a pity, indeed.
IMO, given the rat-eat-rat episodes after Sandy, New Yorkers better think what they are going to do just in case TSHTF due to an ill-conceived foreign policy that they support by default.
Ishmael Zechariah


The Porkchop Express

All

Thoughtful interview at AmCon with JD Vance author of "Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and a Culture in Crisis" about poor whites and their affinity to Trump. He suggests that the surge in support, at least among that cohort, has nothing to do with foreign policy and is more related to their cultural heritage and shared experience in the US. Including their tolerance for his more theatrical/"out of line" remarks.

My best guess, at least based on his thesis, is that foreign policy is important to white working class voters insofar as it quite clearly makes both the "elites" and the "establishment" apoplectic with rage. The more he transgresses these norms, be they foreign or domestic policies, the more fervent their support. Though their support is key to a Trump presidency, it cannot be won with them alone, and thus he walks a very fine line putting together a winning coalition that is an odd combination of both anti-elitism and subservience to that same elitism.

Definitely worth the read.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/trump-us-politics-poor-whites/

Margaret Steinfels

Yes, hmmm, perhaps.

However, I have long thought that Israel is playing a double-game with Syria. However much medical support they may be giving to IS fighters (haven't actually seen that reported), they have been reported as giving medical assistance to the opposition and "other" Syrian fighters. No doubt humanitarian. And no doubt with an eye to the ultimate settlement, which very likely could be without Assad but with the Alawites a major contingent, perhaps dominant, in a new government.

Syria's new government concedes the Golan and peripheral border territory to Israel.

As a lead-up to that how about this: Turkey kow tows to Putin and ends support of all factions fighting in Syria; Assad finally gets his dacha (perhaps in Crimea); Turkey and Israel have, if not kissed at least made up; Netanyahu is looking to flirt with Putin as a lever to move along the U.S. subvention to the occupation (and Liberman, foreign minister, and former citizen of the Soviet Union is there to translate.) Iran? will follow Assad's lead...not sure about this?

Perhaps I am naive (she says), but the idea that Clinton is going to nuke the world seems more far-fetched than the scenario I have just sketched.

Of course, I could be wrong...only a history major.

Kooshy

And you replied to me, that the philly cheesy show was not "your" convention, how convenient! Who's conevention was it? May be all was Khan's and wife and US constitution that Hillary and Bill really care about

Tyler

steve,

Hey intern steve ol buddy, the "they're both exactly alike each other!" canard ain't going to work this time. Its obvious that the neocon GOP hates Trump, and is running back home to its origin in the DNC.

Tyler

Sam,

>NYT
>Not a propaganda tentacle of the Dems

Pick one.

Sam Peralta

Margaret Steinfels

"Perhaps I am naive (she says), but the idea that Clinton is going to nuke the world seems more far-fetched than the scenario I have just sketched."

I think you are being naive. I believe you're naivety is due to cognitive dissonance that no one can be so "evil" to launch a nuke strike and certain destruction of hundreds of millions. So, the prism by which you view Hillary's track record of decision making and judgment is rose colored.

No one intends to launch a nuke strike. It happens because the conflict has escalated to a point where it is perceived that there is no other option. A scenario under the Hillary as C-in-C could be she orders further interventions into Syria and the establishment of a no-fly-zone all of course for humanitarian purposes and for fostering liberty and democracy. She calls Putin and tells him what she wants to see happen. Putin tells her he'd like some of what she is smoking. She then orders some Russian air defenses and aircraft to be destroyed. Putin retaliates by taking out some number of US military assets. What does Hillary do? Negotiate with "that thug" Putin or escalate?

turcopolier

IZ

"graham fuller and henri barkey" Ah, Graham Fuller was NIO for the ME when I was newly appointed DIO for the ME. He had written a memo to the IC adopting the Israeli meme of the existence of Mullahs in Iran who were "agrarian reformers." I argued with him but could not carry the day against the NIE in which he had argued that we had to embrace the Mullahs in order to prevent a Communist Iran. I subsequently "managed" a new NIE but it was too late. This is one of my many failures in life (Catholic guilt). As for Barkey I have met him and he seems to me a malevolent creature of Zionism who happened to be born in Istanbul and educated at Roberts
College. pl

Sam Peralta

Tyler

Separate source from content. Evaluate content on its own merits.

What are other content on electoral college math saying?

FB Ali

"After all, there is no reason why Indians and Pakistanis should blow each other up, simply out of deference to very stupid ‘Western’ ideas".

I dearly hope so! (Incidentally, in the process they would also destroy a large part of the human race because of the succeeding nuclear 'winter').

Unfortunately, there are no signs of such wisdom prevailing. One of the basic problems is that both militaries (especially their armies) conform to the global pattern of not attracting the "brightest buttons in the drawer". I suspect that the "nuclear intellectuals" there are the ones who've read a bit of Western literature on the subject. Not very reassuring!

Tyler

Sam,

As the good Colonel is fond of saying, we are not post modernists who separate the source from the content and believe everything exists in a bubble.

The NYT is nothing more than the propaganda organ of the globalists/DNC, and everything it puts out must be evaluated through that lens.

Other sources are saying that Clinton should be ahead by double digits in battleground states and geographically creative push polling is unable to hide the fact from the DNC that November 7th is going to be a blood bath.

Tyler

Sir,

Did you know Fuller sponsored the Tsarnevs into the United States?

Tyler

Maybe crap like this is why people are running from Big Grandma and into the arms of God Emperor Trump:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clintons-stance-on-immigration-is-a-major-break-from-obama/2016/03/10/6388a1f8-e700-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html

Trey N

Thank you and F B Ali very, very much for bringing this information to our attention, David. What an incredibly important and massively underreported story.

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