"How Turkey Could Become the Next Pakistan" ISW. Nuclear Safety at Incirlik - New Yorker

"The failed coup attempt by elements of the Turkish Armed Forces on July 15 will enable President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to establish himself as an authoritarian ruler in Turkey. His priorities in the next few months will be to solidify the loyalty of the Turkish military establishment and complete the constitutional reform necessary to replace Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an executive presidency, his longstanding goal. A post-coup Erdogan is much less likely to submit to American pressure without major returns. Erdogan immediately demanded the extradition of political rival Fethullah Gulen from the U.S., accusing Gulen of plotting the coup and condemning the U.S. for harboring him. Erdogan will likely deprioritize the fight against ISIS, undermining the counter-ISIS mission in Syria, as he focuses on consolidating power. He may even revoke past concessions to the U.S., including permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik airbase for counter-ISIS operations."  ISW

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"With a few hours and the right tools and training, you could open one of NATO’s nuclear-weapons storage vaults, remove a weapon, and bypass the PAL inside it. Within seconds, you could place an explosive device on top of a storage vault, destroy the weapon, and release a lethal radioactive cloud. NATO’s hydrogen bombs are still guarded by the troops of their host countries. "  New Yorker

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These are very interesting pieces of work exploring the prospects for developments in Erdogan's Turkey. 

IMO the Turkish military will soon  be reduced to a quivering mass of fearful people looking over their shoulders while waiting for dismissal or worse.  This will produce a security vacuum in the country that is bound to be filled by Islamists.

Jennifer Cafarella raises the possibility that Erdogan will turn to AQ seeking an ally against his internal and external adversaries.  If this occurs then the safety of American assets in Turkey will be severely compromised. 

I will say once again that the US nuclear weapons at Incirlik air base should be removed while we still have the ability to do so without having to fight to remove them.

Think of the potential for blackmail inherent in the possession of one or more of these weapons in the hands of our enemies.

They couldn't arm it?  Do you really want to bet on that?  pl  

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/how-turkey-could-become-next-pakistan

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-h-bombs-in-turkey

Comments

[BabelFish]

Long past time to exit them from NATO, which should be disbanded as well (should have been in the early 90s). And, slight tangent, gold plated serving tray for support for additional Ford class carriers at $13 billion a pop, not including the air group.

[Fred]

Col.,

"Think of the potential for blackmail inherent in the possession of one or more of these weapons in the hands of our enemies."

What might the JCS be telling Obama? Have any of the senior officers taken the initiative to move any such weapons which may be stored in Turkey out? What is the National Security Advisor Susan Rice advising now that it is obvious Turkey is no longer stable nor likely to be a stable ally.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to BabelFish 20 July 2016 at 08:24 AM

Don't forget the matching cutlery!

http://i.ebayimg.com/t/Solingen-Planeta-Besteckkasten-104-Teile-23-24-Karat-Hartvergoldet-NEU-18-10-/00/s/MTYwMFgxNDgx/$%28KGrHqFHJEIE915gDK!pBPf%29GEz4OQ~~60_45.JPG

[TV]

Another Obama foreign policy "success."

[William Fitzgerald]

Pat Lang,

That those weapons weren't quietly removed years ago signifies lack of imagination in addition to previously mentioned cold war inertia.

WPFIII

[SmoothieX12]

Erdogan will likely deprioritize the fight against ISIS, undermining the counter-ISIS mission in Syria

This is debatable, to put it mildly. US is not the only "fighter" with ISIS in Syria but this statement is made obviously on the basis that US IS the only fighter. Reality on the ground does not support such conclusions.

[Trey N]

Second the motions to have Turkey out of NATO and to have that worthless, toothless, dangerously destabilizing joke of a "military organization" disbanded.

If, when and how Turkey leaves NATO, the shock waves from this magnitude 10 geopolitical earthquake are going to reverberate far and wide -- especially in the SE Europe Balkans region of the old Ottoman Empire. I wonder which way the terrified Romanians, Bulgarians, etc will jump: will they abandon the sinking NATO ship ASAP and turn back to their traditional protector, Russia -- or will they close their eyes and cling even tighter to the drowned carcass of NATO and sink into the abyss with it...?

[SmoothieX12]

and turn back to their traditional protector, Russia

Dostoevsky in his Writer's Diary wrote quite explicitly about all those nations. I don't think modern Russia really wants to "protect" Romania or Bulgaria or whoever.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

I trust (hope?) that a crash project has been started to develop a Plan E or F for in situ dismantling of the nukes and the rendering the parts and materials therein as difficult and costly to reuse as possible, and hopefully impossible.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Yes, but it's not just Obama. It's an indictment of US policy since the collapse of the USSR.

[Marc]

could this be catalyst for larger conversation on nuclear disarmament in the region? and I have patted my pockets: sorry but I won't be able to contribute my share to the $1,000,000,000,000 upgrade of our arsenal. couple of kids in college.

[irf520]

You think you'll be given a choice? Either it'll come out of your taxes, or they'll just magic the money into existence which will eventually show up as higher prices for stuff you need.

[oofda]

Understand that there are about 90 aircraft-borne bombs in Incirlik- with no planes certified to carry them. Supposedly 50 are for the USAF and 40 for the Turkish AF. There are no nuclear-certified USAF squadrons stationed there; and purportedly the Turkish AF has no squadrons certified to carry them. If they were ever to be employed, USAF (or other NATO) units that are certified to deliver such munitions would have to be brought in. This all heightens the question of why these weapons are still there- if indeed they are.

[SmoothieX12]

Debka is a fraud of first degree.

[turcopolier]

oofda

You appear to be quoting me. None of these weapons are in Turkish custody as yet. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

May be Bulgaria?

[jld]

Yes but on second or third degree (or more?) it is what the Mossad want you to believe, still interesting if you can decipher the intention.

[Bill Herschel]

Okay, so Erdogan's family has been brokering millions of dollars worth of stolen oil for ISIS, perhaps a little less now that Russia has bombed some of the tankers. Turkey, our NATO ally, hosts American jets attacking ISIS at Incirlik. But they are nervous hosts, having blamed the U.S. for a coup-attempt and having shut down Incirlik and apparently still not having turned on the electricity.

Now let's change perspective. I'm the head of ISIS. Am I saying to myself, "Self, angry loners with trucks are good, but hydrogen bombs are much, much better."? I would say I am.

We've got one Presidential candidate who clearly doesn't want to be President (Donald Trump Jr. to Kasich, "The Vice President will be in charge of Foreign and Domestic Policy." Kasich, "But what will President Trump do?" Donald, "Make America Great Again."), and another who is probably fretting that she might not be able to bomb Russia from Incirlik.

It reminds me of something a friend said. Leaks in your roof never get better. Who's going to fix all this?

[jsn]

Does anyone have any idea what Kerry was doing at the kremlin with Putin last Thursday?
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/07/20/what-explains-us-russia-tango-over-syria/

[Kunuri]

I was wondering if anyone within US administrations or intelligence community might have had the foresight to render the bombs inoperable and free of radioactive material long time ago, in secrecy. After all, it is nothing but a deterrent, and had been more than 40 years, before the time of nuclear submarines. A weapon does not always have to be locked and loaded, ready to fire, only the enemy must absolutely believe that it is. Especially if there are also many other weapons out of reach of the enemy with much more powerful loads.

It seems, from the discussion here that the delivery of these systems is a complicated affair, and entirely within the whim of the host country which controls the air space in and around the base. And Turkey has been branded an unreliable ally since the first Iraq war. If their use is dependent on the whim of an unreliable ally, why even risk the actual bombs falling into the hands of the bad guys.? As long as the Russians and the rest of the world believe that they are there and can/maybe used.

Recently, talk of a possible coup has been all around the think tank circles, I would imagine someone would have thought and speculated about the fate of the bombs in a possible bloodbath after a contested, or prolonged upheaval within the country.

[Thomas]

Waiting for the big news coming from the Sultan's Security session, it would be the best move to announce a Nato Exit and tell the US to remove these weapons from sovereign Turkey since they are needed no more.

If Recep's long term goal is him and his brothers ruling the hood, the Islamic State and other non-Brotherhood jihadis will need to be removed, one way or another. Having others do the job would be perfect leaving him the tasks of sealing border and dealing with any of his supporters publically backing the jihadists. By putting his people in charge of the Army and Police he can now make this happen.

His actions are of a man planning for war.

[Bob]

Sir:
My (limited) experience in working with Turkish field grade army officers in the Arab World and at CENTCOM over the last 15 years makes me agree completely with your assessment the "Turkish military will soon be reduced to a quivering mass of fearful people looking over their shoulders while waiting for dismissal or worse. This will produce a security vacuum in the country that is bound to be filled by Islamists."
Bob

[bth]

Would anyone familiar with the base care to speculate on why the electrical grid to the base keeps getting cut after 5 days? What is it preventing?

[jsn]

I'm not clever enough to make sense of all this, but Kerry was meeting with Putin on Thursday in the Kremlin:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2016/07/20/what-explains-us-russia-tango-over-syria/
And Erdogan was tipped of by the Russians on Friday:
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950430001452

What do I know, but it looks like Obama's State Dept. may have plumbed a new depth of incompetence.

[oofda]

I probably am- I couldn't recall where I read it, but gladly credit you. Why hasn't the U.S. media or even the Congress brought this up?

And in more ominous news, Erdogan is furthering his crack-down- moving to teachers and university deans. He also has targeted the civil service.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/turkey-demands-resignation-of-every-university-dean-in-country-a/