"The coup plotters probably erred in their assumption that there was wide support at senior levels in the Turkish military for a coup. The generals, who once would have been natural opponents of Erdogan’s ambitions, had been severely punished in their first encounter with the then prime minister in 2010-11. A series of show trials claiming that the senior officers were involved in plotting against the government based on very flimsy evidence removed many upper ranks, replacing them gradually with Erdogan loyalists. Many of the officers so convicted have only recently been released from prison but, having been out of power for years, they have not retained any ability to take action against the government.
The coup plotters may have approached one or more of the new Erdogan-appointed generals, without whose support a coup could not succeed, expecting a sympathetic hearing. In all likelihood, they were received cordially but the senior officer immediately reported their overture to the president, setting the stage for a trap." The American Conservative
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In the interest of full disclosure I am one of the people who have discussed this matter with Philip Geraldi. IMO the scenario he suggests fits exactly with my conception of the "coup" as a false flag operation. pl
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/a-very-predictable-coup/
Putin is a statesman of highest caliber, he is not vindictive and always looking for an angle to cooperate with other countries to advance the state interests of Russia.
Outside of Iran, there is no such Muslim country that one could even remotely consider to be led by a statesman of the caliber of Putin.
Russia has a deep bench, Putin will be followed by others like Putin - in my opinion.
The game that Erdogan is playing is stupid, it is not based on cooperation but on extortion - it will get him so far and not far enough to remedy the historical backwardness of the Turkey.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 19 July 2016 at 10:08 AM
Cee,
I find no "missionary" goal in the constitution, where is that please?
Posted by: Fred | 19 July 2016 at 11:07 AM
Ishmael, I have no detailed knowledge of the real situation inside Turkey. I view events from the outside, and interpret them according to the macro-picture of events in the region.
Thus, I may well be wrong. And, you may well be right (as implied by your questions). Time will tell.
Posted by: FB Ali | 19 July 2016 at 11:16 AM
I believe Erdogan does not see the future of Turkey in a membership of the EU.
He uses this (as he does NATO) for his own ends. Once they become more of a liability than an asset, he will dump them.
Posted by: FB Ali | 19 July 2016 at 11:21 AM
kooshy,
You mean Paul Ryan's refusal to release RNC control to some Ted Cruz supporters or Trump's lack of actual control of the RNC leadership?
Posted by: Fred | 19 July 2016 at 12:42 PM
I read Qatar was involved, Saudi Arabia was watching - and I suppose - hoping.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 19 July 2016 at 12:51 PM
IZ
It seems to me that this is primarily a gambit to secure absolute domestic power. Once he feels that his perceived enemies are taken care of he will likely feel more emboldened to act elsewhere. The Kurds may feel the heat first.
I speculate that there may be elements within the AKP too who now feel threatened. He's gonna brook no competition.
Posted by: Sam Peralta | 19 July 2016 at 12:57 PM
"The big question to me now is what is to become of Turkeys bid to join EU?"
You live in UK and are a Brexiter? (Sorry could nor resist :-))
Forget a EU membership of Turkey. It has really not been on the table for years and will not be, especially not with a UK-free EU.
Posted by: Ulenspiegel | 19 July 2016 at 02:14 PM
On your #1, no - she is too dependent on European cash injections when economic times become hard. This has been the case for decades and was not an AKP specific issue.
Alliance with Iran and certainly Russia are out of the question; grudging economic relations, however, is going to be there, especially with Iran since Iranian Blockade Runners need all available routes.
A political and religious program between Iran and Turkey could go a long way to discredit and destroy the scourge of Jihadi Terrorism - although such a joint program is very unlikely at the present moment.
A similar effort, the 2006 Amman Conference, clearly has failed.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 19 July 2016 at 02:37 PM
"Something is brewing..."
The coming conclusion of the current Caliphate? It would leave an opening for the Sultan to add the title to his CV and solidify his position as the Islamic Democracy Standard Bearer. Plus he would have insider information of Ibrahim's State impending doom and act accordingly, such as a counter-coup maneuver before the heat rises on the south border.
What will be interesting to see if Erdogan formally requests extradition for Gulen and part of the case is a dime drop on his private phone calls or e-mails.
Posted by: Thomas | 19 July 2016 at 02:52 PM
No I live in Hawaii and I surf
Posted by: Walter | 19 July 2016 at 04:00 PM
Fred, I mean not to have control over their own staff , who check and veted the candidate' wife key note speech? That shouldn't have happened? Trump can't run the same lose campaign as when he was not parties nominee
Posted by: Kooshy | 19 July 2016 at 05:09 PM
Walter,
Unlike Charlie. Charlie don't surf.
(Someone had to say it. I figured I'd get it over with.)
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 19 July 2016 at 05:35 PM
Kooshy, Fred
The plagiarism issue is a good example of the shark bait mindset of the corporate media to make the Trump campaign look bad and then get into a negative feeding frenzy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-19/did-michelle-obama-also-borrow-her-2008-speech
Posted by: Jack | 19 July 2016 at 05:41 PM
Kooshy,
Yes, like Attorney General Lynch not having control over the DOJ employee who 'accidentally' sent out that tweet under the DOJ account. She no more verifies every thing sent out that Trump or his wife does an internet search to ensure no 'plagiarism' occurs.
Posted by: Fred | 19 July 2016 at 06:05 PM
Belgium, Luxembourg and The Netherlands are democracies; be it nominally with a Royal Head of State. I think the Scandinavia is also, although I didn't live there.
Posted by: Amir | 20 July 2016 at 04:55 AM
And in stead of importing talent, create and nurture talent at home and export it worldwide.
Posted by: Amir | 20 July 2016 at 04:58 AM
There is ZERO chance of Turkey being allowed to join E.U.
I happen to have known, as a trainee, a few physicians of the ruling class of Belgium, The Netyerlands and Spain. The conversations trickles down. Evan a decade ago, when Turkey pretended to be a modern democracy, there was an extreme resistance of Turkey's membership of E.U. And not only that but there was a general unwillingness to allow full assimilation and integration of Turkish 2d and 3rd generation labor-immigrants of 50'e & 60's. I am not saying that this was not reciprocal.
Posted by: Amir | 20 July 2016 at 05:32 AM