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18 July 2016

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Fred

Kunuri,

"Grecian Formula".

Cee

missionary goal of bringing Democracy to the world, but maybe it would cost us less in the long term.

The people were afraid of that democracy and what it would cost them after seeing Libya, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Egypt...

They chose their own poison.

crf

It could only really live within Turkey's citizens. If too few of them support secular, enlightened governance, then nothing is going to bring it back, even a successful coup.

A certain set of values associated with progress (in broad strokes: secular, liberal and scientific) are not exactly weak in Western societies, or even in Asia, but they are also not in clear ascendance now, and there has been backsliding in many countries.

kao_hsien_chih

Good to hear from you (also). Hope things are as good as they can be given the circumstances. Stay safe!

ToivoS

I am not sure that "setting the stage for a trap" Giraldi's words is the same as a false flag operation. It seems pretty clear at this point the Erdogan had advance knowledge but it still seems unlikely that he was actually involved in planning the coup.

The interesting question is what did the CIA and military intelligence know before hand? Seems unlikely that they knew nothing. If we did have advance knowledge, did we give a wink and a nod? Or did some fool CIA agent encourage them to go ahead?

Degringolade

I like Nick's answer

On Foreign Policy

“So if – in addition to the many individual policy, governmental and operational lessons there are to be learned – there is a single, overriding lesson from Iraq, it is surely that we need to rediscover the principles of a traditional, realist, conservative foreign policy. Value stability. Respect sovereignty. Do not make foreign policy part of an ideological crusade. Do not try to recreate the world in your own image. Do not, however much you might disapprove of a dictator’s abuse of human rights, use that as a pretext for regime change. Always act on the basis of the national interest. Above all, understand the risk involved when things change in complex and volatile states.”

Babak Makkinejad

Erdogan knows that Turkey is needed as part of the US-EU containment strategy against Russia, he knows that Turkey is needed by the Sunni Arabs, Azerbaijan Republic, US and EU against Iran and he also knows that Russia prefers to have friendly relations with Turkey.

Erdogan is in a very comfortable place domestically as well; Gullen's sheep are not going to go against him and the Kemalists cannot articulate a vision against him and AKP that is credible.

[Who assassinated Ozal, I start to wonder.]

So, he is going to extract things of value from US, from EU, from Arabs, and even from Russia. His successor will also continue on this game - welcome to multi-polarity.

Ishmael Zechariah

SST,
THY flights from Istanbul Ataturk are now allowed back in the USA. Sorties against Daesh from Incirlik had started yesterday. I am not imputing any correlation.
The tayyip regime have suspended all leaves and are asking all government employees abroad to reuturn back to Turkey.
Something is brewing...
Ishmael Zechariah

michael brenner

The AKP never has received a majority vote in the Erdogan era

FB Ali

A couple of days ago, in comments posted on an earlier thread, I had suggested that, if this was indeed an 'engineered' coup, then it was probable that Erdogan needed it to carry out a massive purge, especially in the military, as a precursor to a significant policy change.

Now that it seems very likely that Erdogan 'allowed' the coup to proceed (and the expected purges are taking place), I think we can soon expect this radical shift in policy to occur. As I had suggested then, this would probably be a move to develop much closer relations with Russia and Iran, and distance itself from the US and the West.

For those surprised by this prediction (Yes, Fred, I know he is an 'Islamist'!), let me tick off a few pointers:

- Turkey has ruled the Arab world. Its current leader, the Saudi princeling, expects Erdogan to play second fiddle!

- Erdogan is an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab world. The Saudis and Egyptians are enemies of the MB.

- The US is backing the Arabs, led by the Saudis.

- The only role left for Turkey in Syria is to support the Saudi-backed jihadis and rebels. This role is of no benefit to it.

- The US is backing the Kurds in Syria, who are allied to the PKK. Russia is also showing signs of doing that, mainly as an anti-Turkish move

- Once the Syrian war ends, the Russian military will withdraw from the region. The US military will stay on in support of the Arabs against Iran. Turkey will be expected to be a bit-player in this game.

- Turkey needs good relations with Russia and Iran for its economic prosperity.

In sum, Turkey has a much better prospective future as an independent player with closer ties to Russia and Iran, than as a US ally.

BraveNewWorld

>"I agree with pl. ff. A real CIA-backed coup would not fail so miserably."

This one seems right on par with the "Bay of Pigs".

hans

All ... Gulen is a curious character... deeply involved in U.S. Charter Schools and dishing money into congressional pockets
https://mikethemadbiologist.com/2016/07/18/gulen-charters-and-campaign-contributions/

turcopolier

ToivoS

You don't actually know any of that. You simply prefer to think the US was involved. It was not. pl

walter

ISL, we do not have democracy. We are represented by politicians who chase the money, not the will of the people. Are there any countries with functioning democracies? I hope so, but not sure if there are any. I think what PL has been opining is that democracy is a worthy goal but unattainable by most countries in the Middle East at the present moment, so we need to focus on what is most effective at securing order, stability, and this part I disagree with-aligned with American interests. Erdogan appears to be advocating policies aligned against American interests-supporting radical jihadists that will harm America.

Personally, I believe we should stop picking sides because the sides we pick-Israel, Saudi Arabia, Saddam for a long time, Erdogan, Mubarek, etc are shitty choices so we should stop trying to control and manipulate a region that is uncontrollable and only costs us shit-loads of money and casualties. Fire all these foreign policy experts, shrink our military, come home and mind our own business. All these foreign policy experts in the State Dept, Defense Dept should get real jobs like carpentry, mechanics, farmers..and mind their own fucking business here at home in the USA.

walter

Degringolade, Nick is largely correct: agreed the Unipolar worldview is bankrupting us. (we didnt go into Iraq to correct human rights abuses)

 Ishmael Zechariah

General Ali,
Two questions and one comment:
1-Do you think tayyiban Turkey has the resources to act "as an independent player with closer ties to Russia and Iran, than as a US ally"?

2-Do you think that the deep anti-russian and anti-shia sentiments of the average tayyip supporter, agitated to fever pitch by the tayyiban propaganda of the last decade, might make such a major shift a hard sell to tayyip's base? His opening to israel has already lost him supporters.

Given the current economic crisis and the deep vulnerability of the country to terrorist attacks, his future is not assured, no matter what he does. I think this coup left the islamists in Turkey weaker, not stronger.


Ishmael Zechariah

walter

Donald Trump, I will vote for u if u promise to fire all State Dept, CIA, NSA, DIA, DOD control freaks trying to "figure out" the world and bend it to support "American interests." They may be exciting, high paying jobs, but those guys are bankrupting us and turning the world against us. Get real jobs at home.

Trump, don't listen to any of these warmongers who want to "go after ISIL, go after Assad, go after Iran, go after Hezbollah, go after Russia."

Donald, as a businessmen, you and I know this foreign policy is bankrupting us. I don't mind if u go and blow ISIL to smithereens, then just please go home and let those guys sort it all out.

I am sick of reading about the Middle East in the news....New Rule: News blackout of the Middle East. Only positive domestic news like: Homeless kid gets scholarship to Harvard; Black dude saves white guy that fell in lions cage at zoo; The internet of everything rapidly becoming a reality; Nate Diaz kicks Connor McGregors ass again; etc.

walter

The big question to me now is what is to become of Turkeys bid to join EU? This kind of behavior cannot help Turkey. Does Erdogan care?

Barish

Aligns with what I hope will come of this turn-about - the rampant repression within Türkiye itself not withstanding.

As Saudi is mentioned, I am not aware this observation here by Mr Khalil has been shared yet as to the slant against Erdoğan that was present in Saudi media in particular up until the coup:

http://angryarab.blogspot.de/2016/07/saudi-regime-and-turkish-coup.html

He suggests that al-Saud not only bet on the coup, but may have supported it too, although he admits that no evidence thereof is forthcoming as of yet.

kooshy

I agree, he got 6 billion from EU for refugees he in part created, playing the Russian card against US interests he probably can extract a lot from US/NATO.

ex-PFC Chuck

Yes. And not just financially. Also economically and most importantly, morally.

rjj

Where does the money come from?

Why is he based in Poconos?

kooshy

Strategically located countries, like Iran and Turkey are more difficult to be attacked, and always can and will play a betting game between interested parties. IMO Turkey with regard to Nato, Mediterranean sea, Russians, Israel, Iran access to west, can play a hot game of who will raise the ante, that is the biggest resources and capital Turkey has, it seems Erdo’ Turkey just realized that, after their stupid FP on Syria.

Ted

Anatoly Karlin at Unz.com has a very interesting piece on the coup and demographics, showing why Turkey has fundamentally changed (& why coup could never have been successful) and why its future will become inexorably Islamist.

http://www.unz.com/akarlin/demographics-of-turkey-coup/

IMO, all part of the coming thousand years of darkness we were promised.

kooshy

Colonel, I think Trump campaign are more stupid than I thought before, right down to a lose childish amateurish start. Is Embarrassing for day one of general elections.

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