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29 July 2016


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Mark Logan

Hillary, and by a significant margin. Might carry the Senate and take a big bite out of the House too. Presidential cycles bring out a favorable demographic for her ilk.

I may even vote for her. All she has to do is convince me she knows she got it wrong with regards to Russia on the Ukraine issue. It appears to me Kerry knows (now) that they got it wrong with Assad as well and is looking for a way to warm up to him. The coordination between our forces and the Russian ones in the area has been quite good, AFAIK.

Trump? May have it right about Russia, but I am unwilling to have the Iran agreement torn up to get that. I strongly suspect that if it were to happen while Trump was President Bibi, aware of the fickleness of US policy, will strike while the iron is hot and successfully drag a Trump administration right along.

An Sionnach

This West European agrees very much with jld. My feeling is that Trump, egotistical and incoherent as he appears to be, is a far safer bet that Hitlery. We don't know what he's capable of, and at least some of what he has said re international issues is common sense, particularly re Russia and Putin.

By contrast, we know all to well what to expect from the she monster. Wars wars, and more wars. And she seems to be ok with goading the Bear in his den, demonising him and acting in total ignorance or recklessness regarding Russia's vital national interests and its history. That is something that almost certainly cannot end well for anyone. I believe, given her response to the savage butchery of Mumamar Ghaffadi, a human being, that the woman is a psychopath. Who is cool with the nuke codes in the control of a psychopath?







I'm rather certain the citizens of those countries will be happiest with the candidate who is least likely to start a war that will turn their countries into smoldering wastelands.

Trey N

"a strange case of mixed emotions"

The classic definition of mixed emotions: watching your mother-in-law driving over a cliff in your new car....

I don't understand the antagonism of the Bernie supporters* against The Donald: both are against the corrupt status quo; both are against the Wall Street 1% and the neocon warmongers; both want to focus on addressing the myriad problems here at home (especially the dire economic situation); etc etc. They seem to have a lot in common. Sadly, the usual elitist strategy of "divide and conquer" seems to be working quite effectively here.

*I do get why the neoliberal and neocon Hillary supporters hate and fear Trump, since he opposes everything they stand for: more war, more financial exploitation, more special-interest/MIC cronyism, etc etc.



Because the Left is Marxism and Marxism is Globalism, which is what Hillary represents.


Go Go Trumpzilla,

A strong contender for Best New User Name 2016. Welcome aboard.



No, Cruz was running for President of Jesus Land and Outlying Social Strivers.

Trump doesn't care about abortion, or gay marriage, and is more than happy to let the states figure out what they want (as it should be). this is versus sending in federal mandarins interpreting Title X with total insanity in order to demand that a 6'4 300lb dude who grows his hair long is to be treated as a girl and shower next to other girls OR ELSE.

The idea of America as a country and allowed to determine who is allowed in her borders is a radical one? Put down the pipe.



This sad little man, unable to tell the difference between pointing out methodological flaws like D+14 sampling in a poll of 500 people and a 17 point swing across polls.

I hope there's room on the ledge with you and ol Maggie on November 8th for all the other true believers.



As far as I know Trump hasn't bragged about sending manufacturing jobs overseas and actually builds things versus being a VC ala Romney, or "putting coal out of business" for that matter.

Trumpka and the UAW are empty figureheads who are pretending that their unions will vote in line with them as they struggle for relevance in the new coalition of the fringes.

Trump will win them, and suburbanites are watching Ferguson with baited breath, realizing they're one "Housing Affordability and Fairness" mandarin shipping the Section 8 types to their neighborhood and their housing prices go to hell. They know where their bread is buttered.


Trey N,

I will try to explain.

First, imagine an ostrich. Now imagine it with its head in the sand.

Voila. Walker and et al.



Where can I get some of what you're smoking? Asking for a friend. TIA



"Trump - .... is only becoming known beyond his TV persona, and the more people learn about him, the more they'll hate him."

That was probably the Republican establishment's view too. Jeb spent $130 million and lost to Trump. There must be allot more driving people if they are willing to go for Mr. T. Some adds on TV/radio/internet aren't going to do much to change attitudes this time around.



"the minorities and the coastal elites break in big numbers for the Democrat..."
Professor, I think you have too much of the science in politics this time around. Minorities are not homogenous. Hispanic Ted Cruz was the first Hispanic to win a presidential primary, he did it in lily white Iowa. Also there are plenty of working class minorities that are being "kicked to the curb" by the Clinton machine.


Oh! Yeah! I see why you picked your moniker.


No, no, no, that's not "correct" there are more genders than that:


In reply to AK 29 July 2016 at 08:56 PM




Hillary Rotten Criminal already trying to influence US policy in the wrong way.

Interestingly the neocon mouthpiece The Times of London seemed even more hysterical in tone regarding Trump today. Also a big front page smear piece on Russia and a puff piece on the armed struggle of Iranian Kurds. So I assume the Kurds are going to be the new fashion in the ME.


Any evidence Trump has received any money from Adelson?


Seems to be continuing to run a lean but efficient campaign funded by himself, small donors, rich friends and that small minority of donors who donate for reasons other than expecting a pay back.



It appears to me Kerry knows (now) that they got it wrong with Assad as well and is looking for a way to warm up to him.

Yes, yes, yes, like Tyler I want some of your stuff.

Bryn P

As a Brit I wish that I felt more confident that the views expressed on this site were fully reflective of American public opinion. Please, please for the sake of my grandchildren anyone but Hillary.


That venture is essentially a pure market place. People buy and sell "futures" based on an outcome. Pretty much putting money where their mouths are. And, as I stated, it has an excellent record of predicting who will win a presidential contest.

I am sure there are other more rigged venues, but this one has been around for awhile now. Nor are there a lot of money on the line, so there is no profit in trying to rig it. It is also out of the mainstream.


Oh boy. I hope you were being sarcastic in equating Marxist Globalism, (which kind, Stalinist, Trotskyite, etc.) with Hillaryite NeoLiberal Globalism, (again, which kind, Oligarchic, Financiogarchic, etc.?) Also, which Left, (The American Pseudo Left, European Left, Chinese Hybrid Left, etc.?) As a better writer than me once famously said; "The Wall Street City Bloc has always been at war with the Chinese Hybrid Left." Why is it that Globalism generally has to be imposed from without?

Muzaffar Ali

Two things win an election in my humble opinion and in both Trump beats Clinton.

1.Clinton for status quo, Trump for Change. Change has always won status quo....in all Presidential elections.

2.The mentally and emotionally stronger candidate always wins, when everything else is equal. Clinton upsets easily, shows signs of anxiety and fear. Watch her body language and you will pick not courage but fear and anxiety.

Trump is cool and bold and very confident. Has has no fear in traveling into the unknown...

Mentally Trump is stronger.....Actually he has already won the contest.

Sony Liston did not lose in the ring...he first lost the match in his mind. Cassius Clay Muhammad Ali played the mental card on Liston...rest is history.

Trump wins by a knock out!


Fred, Tyler,

Oh, we could spend days if we were to parse the details of the "science" of "minority" voting and all the ways the cross caricatures are wrong (even those that I just drew on). ;P The point is simply that Trump will not win by drawing minority voters, although HRC could very easily lose because enough of them will not find her credible. (Two relevant quick examples: her support among blacks is heavily concentrated on churchgoing old ladies; the younger, especially male, may not turn to Trump, but the turnout among them is very low--much is made of legal impediments, but this is mostly driven by their lack of enthusiasm for politics of either party; among "Hispanics," the draw of "immigration" as an issue among non- and older immigrants is limited, especially among communities like Puerto Ricans, and generalizations based on the "average" Hispanics (i.e. Mexican immigrants) don't apply to them.)

In terms of numbers and geography, however, Trump's path, the only conceivable path, to victory goes through the Midwest, and his ability to hold on to the "regular" Republican voters and win over the working class whites. The latter, he is doing a pretty good job, but how much so is unclear yet. The former, highly uncertain. And Trump is starting from quite a ways behind Clinton, which makes him the long shot. The point is simply that he could win, but not very likely (although more likely than some people think). 2-1 odds in favor of Clinton seems fairly reasonable to me.

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