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17 July 2016

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The Beaver

Colonel,

The only reason he abandoned IS was that they began to threaten him.

Well that's why that butcher ( yep under his watch 178 Kurds were burnt in Cizre), commander of the 2nd Army Gen. Adem Huduti, responsible for securing the border with Syria, Iraq and Iran was arrested for coup attempt.

What a good way to shut up someone who allowed the navette of the Jihadists in and out of Syria, for closing his eyes when Erdogan fils was trading in ISIS oil and, who knows, for letting in the Turkmen from Central Asia.

Degringolade

This is a guess. But here is my bet

http://users.humboldt.edu/ogayle/declinemap.gif

Jack

Sir

It seems the real coup was the Sultans. Now he will overthrow what was left of their constitution and rule as he pleases. And of course feather the nests of all the cronies.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3693976/Narcissist-threatens-MARK-ALMOND-tells-Erdogan-seen-president-abuses-office-benefit-family-cronies.html

Let's see how the feckless Obummer acts. And we'll also see what MigrantsRus Merkel does?

Amir

The limits of his ambitions are set by friendly Russia and Armenia to North and NE, Cyprus, Syria and Irak to the South, Greece and Bulgaria to the West and an Iranian regime that is on the edge to the West. If only E.U. & U.S.A. recognize that Erdogan & Al Saud & Al Thani are the problem, not the solution, these limits can be inforced. The enforcing agent will be Kurdish freedom fighters.

Babak Makkinejad

There are multiple schisms in the Islamic World; one is between the Observant and the non-Observant - which also coincides with the question" "What is the relationship of Freedom and Islam?"

Saudi Arabia's response is to suppress - on daily basis - any whiff of "non-observance" and deny that there is any need or notion of Freedom in Islam - Sharia has prescribed and delimited the contours of human autonomy and that is the final word on that subject.

AKP is another variant of Muslim Brotherhood and as far as I can tell there is no qualitative difference between Ikhwan's position on this subject and that of Saudi Government and Establishment.

GF

Here's a sober analysis of the coup attempt:
http://thesaker.is/andrew-korybko-analysis-of-turkish-coup-attempt/
GF

bth

If we were to freebase for a moment about Erdogan going full Ottoman. One could speculate about three phases: internal control, estrangement from the west, and new expansionism.

We are witnessing a consolidation of control and extinction of secular Turkey. Judiciary and army. This may take a few years like Germany 1930s but we seem well on that journey.

Estrangement from NATO and the West. Use of Gulen to paralyze Obama in a diplomatic debate while the NATO alliance with Turkey shifts toward a Pakistan type relationship of distrust and pseudo cooperation which has been building since 2003. Germans pull forces out of Incirlik first over diplomatic spat, then others quietly make there excuse to leave with US left to figure out how to find an alternate air base perhaps in Iraq and how to get the nukes off base. Yet 20 or so of them belong to Turkey and are unlikely to leave when we pull out. Estrangement becomes separation. The economic blackmail of Europe with refugees will likely come to a bitter end. Grey Wolves howl. Turkey's economic situation will slide badly as debt refinancing becomes impossible in hard currency and Erdogan will not jack up interest rates like Putin but let hyper inflation take its toll on the poor. Syrian refugees given Turkish citizenship. NATO's largest army, under new management, leaves the alliance in a few years.

Ottomans look for new alliances with Pakistan and China? Arms deals between Pakistan and Turkey are already stepping up. A push of the Turkish military toward Mosul and Raqqa plus adjacent oil fields under some ethnic pretext? Ergogan's son-in-law becomes very wealthy but donates to religious charities with vigor. The brotherhood tries to resurrect itself in Egypt. Greece reaches out to Russia with both hands. Nothing good for the Kurds. Could, would and exhausted Syria resist a real Turkish push south? And if you were Sunni Arab in Mosul considering the options, would Turkey be a bad one relative to Iraq's Shia militias return or having your home leveled by bombardment against IS from coalition aircraft? Turkey starts to take a renewed interest in Libya's oil industry and charities. Emergent ethnic issues in southern Russia rekindled by the Ottoman unleashed. US-Russian relations receive positive prod from Trump.

Again a freebased thought exercise for a crazy world.

turcopolier

bth

One more time - THEY DO NOT BELONG TO TURKEY. http://thebulletin.org/status-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey
"Today, Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base. Fifty of these bombs are reportedly assigned for delivery by U.S. pilots, and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force. However, no permanent nuclear-capable U.S. fighter wing is based at Incirlik, and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly not certified for NATO nuclear missions, meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U.S. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed" pl

bth

Noted. Thanks for correction.

turcopolier

GF

Sober? Ah, I see, you want to pin this on the US. pl

Babak Makkinejad

I think comparing Turkey and Pakistan in an analogical manner is misleading and not illuminating in understanding Turkey or her foreign and domestic policies.

I also think that such a comparison is insulting to Turkey.

Turkey is superior to Pakistan; factually.

bth

Agreed. Turkey is superior in every way.

Thomas

This comment comes from today's post by b.

(Though Gülen's alleged $25 billion charter school empire, his ties to the CIA and to the Clinton Foundation cast doubt on any claim that he is driven by religious morality.) Erdogan called the coup a "gift of god""

I wonder if Gulen's phone number got picked by a certain compromised server? It would be valuable to a political rival and personal enemy, especially one with access to a state's resources to keep track of it over the years.

There is a nagging suspicion on The Coup's inept performance which, to me, bears the hallmark of the Bakery Bunch's cookbook for color coups. If you know every step the new crew is making it will be easy to wreck the recipe and even select the time and place to your desire by having your infiltrators instigate it.

One of our community members hasn't posted since that day. His writings overtime on his country shows that he would have been out on the street believing that it was the moment he hoped for. May it be well with him.

b

Some interesting details in this Reuters piece

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-security-plot-insight-idUSKCN0ZX0Q9
At height of Turkish coup bid, rebel jets had Erdogan's plane in their sights

/q/
The former military officer said the coup plotters appeared to have launched their attempt prematurely because they realized they were under surveillance, something corroborated by other officials in Ankara.

"They weren't fully prepared. The plans were leaked, they found out they were being monitored and it all apparently forced them to move faster than planned," the ex-officer said.

They also underestimated Erdogan's ability to rally the crowds, his appeal for supporters to take to the streets bringing people out in Istanbul, Ankara and elsewhere even as tanks took to the streets and jets screamed overhead.
/eq/

The F-16 following Erdogan's jet had their radars on but did not shoot. The whole issue had ended vastly different if they had done so. Will they feel remorse over it?

BraveNewWorld

Any one here doubt that DHS has Gulen under a microscope? Surveillance by the FBI all coms tapped by the NSA. Either he didn't have the breathing room to instigate a poker game or the administration was in it up to their eye balls. I believe the former rather than the latter, but I see absolutely no middle ground.

turcopolier

b

Does the F-16 thing not convince you that this was a phony coup? If this had been a real coup they would have killed him, very easy to do. They were not authorized to kill him by the senior officers who were cooperating with Erdogan in this farce. Look at the forces employed in the "coup." They were tiny. Sources of mine in Turkey insist that this was a "set up" designed to fail. pl

Fred

b,

They rallied crowds that were almost entirely male. I guess the good girls of Turkey decided to stay home Friday and wash their hair.

jld

No, it's ludicrous bordering on retarded, The Saker has turned to a 110% pro-Russian propaganda machine which is probably not even well received in Russia proper.
As in the French saying "plus royaliste que le Roi".

 Ishmael Zechariah

bth,

Turkey cannot pursue aggressive policies without external funding. A lot depends on the flow of Saudi and Gulf money. Who controls that flow?

IMO this coup farce has also hurt islamists- the gulen fraction in TSK is now eliminated; secular army officers refused to follow their lead; we have not forgotten Balyoz and Ergenekon. The well-meaning idealists among the civil seculars now see the islamist street rabble as head choppers, not pious folk bent on prayer- this will change how future protests will play out. Finally tayyip is now aware of his mortality. If Russia and the West refuse to play his game, he can be contained quite nicely.

I am not as pessimistic as you are about Turkey's recovery. There will, probably be civil war; a lot of folks will go to their reward, wet will burn with the dry-but things will change. Give it a few years.
Ishmael Zechariah

turcopolier

IZ

I am assured by Turkish sources that Erdogan and senior officers he had appointed manipulated low level plotting to create a "coup" that could be defeated easily leading to his consolidation of power. Do you agree? pl

asx

Not so quickly.

Pakistan is still ahead on a metric key to surviving as a single entity. Cohesion and supremacy of armed forces in the national pecking order. While Turkey is more than just a geopolitical whore, it has more fissures at this time.

While the botched/staged coup was underway in Turkey, Pakistan's army continues to show considerable restraint despite calls for them to take over from inept civilian government.

Turkey is just at the beginning stages of evolving into an Islamic state. Pakistan and Iran have a considerable head start. In an Islamic state, armed jihadi/revolutionary militias are the primary means to wage war. And the army is nothing but jihadis in uniform. Turkey cannot rely on its armed forced to fight the Kurds or even hold on to Hatay, if the SAA choses to act on it.

Turkey is very vulnerable in the time duration it takes for the Army to be completely Islamic. Pakistan went through this transition under Bhutto/Zia with our complete protection. No one can shield Turkey through this phase.

 Ishmael Zechariah

Col. Lang,
Sure looks like it from where we sit. The speed and magnitude of tayyip's response, compared to the ineptitude and scale of the "coup" is quite peculiar. As you have mentioned above, the plotters should have had only one goal- and for achieving that goal they had the opportunity, means and ability. It dd not happen. It might be relevant to remember the tape of MIT and TSK commanders discussing a false-flag operation to attack Syria. These people have read this game book.

Ishmael Zechariah

Liza

The administration is now considering making this humiliation complete:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/kerry-us-awwwill-consider-turkeys-extradition-request-225669

I wonder what President Abadi's thoughts are at the moment. Does the Iraqi government continue to permit American military operations ? Or does Iraq now turn to Russia ?


VietnamVet

Colonel,

Interesting times. Islamists have seized control of Turkey. This is another neo-con disaster forced by the never ending wars. Let’s hope that American nuclear weapon trigger encryption is just as strong as the Russians. The loss of 90 nuclear weapons would elect a Republican Unity government in November. I have no doubt that the neo-liberals will do anything to try to halt Turkey’s rapprochement with Russia and the splintering of the European Union. The rumor that the coup plotters shot down the Russian bomber last year indicates that Turkey is turning towards Eurasia and a multi-polar world. Europe will have to secure its borders and interior ghettos. The spreading chaos is forcing just two options on the West: 1) place its citizens first instead of the ruling few getting insanely rich, or 2) start World War III.

 Ishmael Zechariah

Thomas,
I do hope our fellow pilgrim is safe. He is from Istanbul.
Ishmael Zechariah

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