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21 July 2016

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Bill Herschel

More enlightenment. Thanks.

Jackrabbit

Well, I'm not the one making the assumption that Gulen=CIA involvement. The importance of that argument is the notion that Erdogan will make a strategic turn toward Russia.

I agreed with your earlier comment that a CIA-backed coup would not fail so completely. But there is much that I am not understanding about the various theories offered to explain the coup. To me, going ahead with a coup that was so disorganized (due to the timetable being moved up twice) strains logic. Why go ahead with the coup if success is uncertain? The degree of miscalculation is breathe-taking: failed within hours; no popular support; all opposition parties denounced it; etc.

IMO the simplest explanation is that 'Assad must go!' countries worked with Erdogan/MIT to strengthen Erdogan by enticing some low-level officers into an coup attempt. That makes the "coup" a convenient pretext and Gulen's influence a convenient excuse for a wholesale purge and power grab.

A desire to strengthen Erdogan fits with:
> Breakdown of ceasefire / re-arming of rebels;
> Demands for Russia/Iran to abandon Assad (e.g. implementation of Iran peace deal in jeopardy as US maintains sanctions);
> Israel says that it doesn't want ISIS to be defeated.

Sure, that goes against the grain of official explanations, but how much should we trust those explanations anyway? Is such speculation so outlandish that it is 'Borne' material?

You've said that you know the person that betrayed the coup. But have you asked yourself how reliable that is? Is your info consistent with a Gulen-inspired or Gulen-orchestrated coup? How does the US-sourced rumor that Erdogan was seeking asylum in Germany fit in? (Sibel Edmonds believes it was a desperate attempt to make the coup succeed - I question that interpretation because IMO the coup was too weak to succeed at all.)

Apologies for the length of the comment.

Jack

Sir

This is so sad. If our IC can't provide unvarnished reality-based intelligence because the Borgistas are unwilling to accept, then we're fooked.

Is careerism so deeply entrenched that unless there is a cultural revolution we have no hope to return to a more realistic regime of political decision making?

Jack

My own take from reading the transcript of his interview is more nuanced. He did say there was a possibility that this was a faux coup. He admired the Sultans power play in this regard and felt that this was not the time for us to meddle when we had other pressing issues. In fairness his interview on foreign affairs will go down well with all those that want a more sane and non-interventionist policy. His points on nuclear escalation and his ability to build a friendship with Russia should be welcome relief compared to the Borgist policies of Dubya, Obummer and the Borg Queen. IMO, Trump's calling for more common sense policies that favor our interests first will resonate strongly in flyover country where this election will be decided.

bth

So this article says that on Monday the US signed a 10 year MOU with KRG to fund, train Kurds and US operate 5 bases including at least 2 air bases (which ironically we built years ago) in Kurdish Iraq. This probably explains Sadr's Monday threat to US soldiers in Iraq and might have some role to play in Erdogan's thinking with regard to Incirlik.
http://ekurd.net/us-military-bases-iraqi-kurdistan-2016-07-19

Kelly Hall

Great idea, Erdogan! You've got 60K people who, if they didn't want you out before, now they do. And now they've got no jobs and no income and no way to get out.

Essentially, Erdogan just created a fulltime anti-Erdogan army with no reason to not try again, but this time with lots of violence.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

Thank heaven for your experience and expertise.

The loss of Turkey is disastrous. The Ottoman Caliphate has risen out of the ashes of secularism. Corporate media will ignore it as much as possible in an attempt to elect Hillary Clinton and continue the reign of predatory capitalism. Turkey will likely ally with Russia for protection and in the short term close Turkish borders because the ISIS pretenders are lowly desert Arabs. The Turkish Armed Forces are finished. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to keep his head, will have to rely on his Islamist power base. In long term he has to regain the lost territories to be acclaimed the true Sultan. The heretic Shiite crescent to the South from Beirut to Tehran will have to be cut for the same reasons as the House of Saud paid to do it to the North. In the long run, if there is to be any chance for peace in the Middle East and return the refugees home, Iraq and Syria have to reconstituted as sovereign nations with secure borders and the military strength and alliances to repel any invasion from the North or South.

This is off topic but related. The Middle Class is being ripped apart. The United States is becoming unstable due to the endless wars and financial exploitation. If Donald Trump is elected, a Christian Dominionist, Mike Pence, will be one heart beat from the Presidency. A secular constitutional United States of America is at peril.

Walrus

It is not often we get to witness the birth of a totalitarian state. Erdogan clearly has ambition to recreate the Ottoman Empire as Col. Lang correctly states.

His actions now are designed to cement his control over every institution in Turkey, destroy those he can't control and neutralise or destroy any possible kernel from which an opposing organisation might be grown at home or abroad. That is the reason for neutralising teachers and educational institutions - they breed dissenters, the truth shall make you free and all that. The travel prohibitions and exhortations to students to return are clearly designed to forestall the formation of an overseas based dissident organisation.

What we need to do now is support Turkish dissidents at home and abroad.

FB Ali

You seem to have been reading too much sensationalized fiction, such as the Tom Clancy books.

I would recommend a little read on Occam's Razor!

Bandolero

Pat

Though I grew up with US propaganda lies about the Soviet Union worse than GWBs story on Iraqs WMDs I'm not hostile to the US. That was in the past. Today I like to see a good relationshsip between the US and Germany.

But a big problem for me is the behaviour of the US regarding war and peace. And that's not only based on the desire of the US ambassador in Germany to have US nukes in Germany - which most of the German people don't want - because pulling out the US nukes from Germany may trigger people in Turkey asking for the same. It's not only based on US nukes in Germany having the purpose of disturbing German friendship with Russia, thereby being in Germany against German interests.

The real propblem I have with the US is that my impression is that in the US a faction took power which seemingly knows no limits in waging wars of aggression. And using it's influence in Germany that US faction tries to enlist Germany in such US designed supreme crimes. Take for example the bombing of Belgrad, the occupation of Afghanistan, the war on Iraq, the war by deception and terror on Libya, the covert terror war on Syria and the coup in Ukraine, just to name a few. Most of following such US-led policy is done in Germany by US agents of influence in the name of defending common Western values. The hypocrisy couldn't be greater. Just think of Iraqs alleged WMDs, Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib and the Nuremberg principles.

So, do I like to see the German state, and other relevant private institutions in Germany, purged of followers of the Borg, GWB, BHO, HRC and other war criminals? Of course I do. I don't like Germany to wage wars of aggression on behalf of the U.S., or a third country which may have taken control of relevant state institutions in the US.

Regarding that third country, which may have taken control of relevant state institutions of the US to get the US to wage proxy wars for it's own interests, I would be very happy if the US would do a similar purge like it is currently happening in Turkey on people with dual loyalties, because I think it would seriously undermine the US drive to bloody senseless wars around the globe, which is not benefitting anyone.

So, yes, I would think a purge of the German state of undue US influences would be a good thing, just as the purge of the Turkish state of undue US influences would be a good thing and the purge of of the US state of undue Israeli influences would be a good thing. I do think the world would become more peaceful if that happened, however I also think it's a long way to go.

Even the worst case of a HRC presidency in the US serving only Israeli interests still may happen.

Kooshy

IMO, as long as US is keeping and practicing same old Cold War era foreign policy with just a facade remodeling since the USSR collapse, we shouldn't expect any change in what US will or can do. What US/ we will do? As before we will pay our way to our fat lazy collective security allies (NATO).
Erdo' new learned foreign policy in ways, is more advance than that of ours, he knows in this situation we are (Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia) much like the Europeans with refugees case, US curent foreign policy has no choice, but to pay him and take any shit he loads upon us. US doesn't need NATO or to protect any free unpaid security to any SOB on count of Russia' rise. IMO let the lazy SOBs, deal with whatever Russian/Putin themselves, the EU' GDP is almost as big.

michael brenner

A Turkish former PhD student of mine has just been sacked from a university position. He has no Gulen ties or political ties whatsoever - although secular in his private life. In a previous professional incarnation, he was an official dealing with human trafficking (but has no dual loyalty to the Ukrainian or Albanian mafia).

Poul

An article of interest regarding your question.

http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/02/04/g-len-movement-and-turkish-soft-power-pub-54430

JerseyJeffersonian

Max,

As to saving Western Europe, well, they've got to do better than this story out of Finland.

Comes a knock at the door, a guy opens it, only to be bum-rushed by three home invaders with baseball bats and a gun; he retreats to the kitchen, grabs a knife and defends himself, eventually overmastering the invaders, injuring them in the process. But wait, he injured them too much, and winds up paying them damages and being sentenced to prison. Four years, €21,000 fine. The home invaders also got short sentences and fines. But how does this work? You are assaulted in your own home by criminals armed with potentially lethal weapons, you have no idea where this is going, you defend yourself in a manner befitting the occasion (i.e., fighting as if your life depended on it, as seems logical), and you get the book thrown at you.

https://www.rt.com/news/352236-jail-finland-court-robbery/

The sort of logic applied by the Finnish Solons goes a long way towards explaining the supine behavior of too many Europeans when confronted by criminality perpetrated by "refugees".

Lord helps those as helps themselves.

turcopolier

Bandolero

"US propaganda lies about the Soviet Union" What were these lies? Question: Was the GSFG a defensive deployment in East Germany to prevent a NATO invasion of the Warsaw Pact? Dis you grow up in the GDR? "the desire of the US ambassador in Germany to have US nukes in Germany" You do know I hope that an ambassador these days is just a messenger? He doesn't set policy about anything except hours in the lujch room. "wars of aggression on behalf of the U.S., or a third country which may have taken control of relevant state institutions in the US." Ah, you mean Israel. Which wars of aggression? " I would think a purge of the German state of undue US influences would be a good thing, just as the purge of the Turkish state of undue US influences would be a good thing and the purge of of the US state of undue Israeli influences would be a good thing." You sre an enemy of the United States. Do you still think of yourself asa Marxist-Leninist? pl

turcopolier

Jack. Careerism is not the problem. The problem is that the handful of people who run the IC agencies are bureaucratic politicians, people like Clapper, Tenant and Brenner. They don't give a damn about the truth. They care about themselves. pl

turcopolier

jackrabbit

"I agreed with your earlier comment that a CIA-backed coup would not fail so completely" Where did I say that? IMO a CIA attempt to trigger a coup these days would be like watching a monkey f--k a football. pl

kooshy

I think colonel is right thinking soon Erdo will form his own state security force with wide authority (like SS) watching over state military and security forces. With rate he is arresting military officers it means he can not trust the remaining service men, without seriously damaging state' security forces command structure.

Amir

The Iranians are an example to emulate for Erdogan. Dictatorship of the majority will be established by the Sultan.

Herb

Throwing 60,000 elites into unemployment and/or detention is a bold move. The verdict is out if it is a reckless move.

Certainly this will have a significant negative impact on the economy and the stability of Turkey as a country. I doubt foreign investors of any scale are pleased. It is likely many of the cast out professionals were not previously politically motivated. Not so now. While they were within government structures, they were easier to monitor. Again, not so much now.

It's pretty clear that Erdogan and his cronies want to create a one-ruler authoritarian government, run by revolving "state of emergency" until all power levers are controlled by their group, but it is less clear that they have sufficient smarts, power, or funding to pull that off given the other constraints they are under (international commitments, kurdish rebellion, ISIS, Syrian instability, etc.). Now they are adding a third of their internal elite as adversaries and potential regime destabilizers.

That is a lot of balls to juggle.

Jackrabbit

Sorry. You didn't say that.

You said that it was a ff; that the coup was betrayed.

Question: What do you think of the rumor, apparently started by MSNBC - citing a senior US official - that Erdogan was seeking asylum in Germany? What might explain that?

Babak Makkinejad

During the AKP rule, 300 private TV and Radio stations have been founded.

It was CNN Turkey that spread Erdogan's message to the Turkish people against that attempt at coup.

To become a totalitarian state like USSR, AKP has to close all independent press - of which there are plenty in Turkey, close all the private broadcasters, outlaw all other political parties, unify AKP and the State, and basically follow the Stalinist program.

That has not yet happened and I doubt that it will.

In my opinion, sooner or later, AKP will be defeated in an election and will loose power.

Babak Makkinejad

KRG is not sovereign and cannot legally make such treaties.

Babak Makkinejad

40 years earlier, during the 1980 Coup in Turkey, universities were closed and this Turkish professor of physics showed up; trying to get a master's degree in metallurgy...

Kemalist or AKP, it odes not matter - they are cut from the same cloth...

Babak Makkinejad

Baku?

That is like expecting a man in Brusselss to have insight into French Politics.

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