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26 July 2016

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ISL

Sam and Swampy,

I feel you miss the point. In recent US history, a major part of winning elections is getting out the vote, which takes dedicated energized (usually young) people. I have been noting a lack of energy and enthusiasm even in Hillary Surrogates. Without the energy that Hillary middle fingered, no one will be busing democrats to the polling place.

Perhaps Han Solo's name applies - Your Worshipfulness - expecting the faithful to bow and run to vote.

Meanwhile, I see a lot of energy on the Trump side.

HankP

kao_hsien_chih -

The situation is always different, but it's not that different. My guess is that HRC will get the vast majority of the Sanders vote, just as Trump will get the vast majority of the Cruz/Rubio/Kasich/ etc. etc. vote. The polls I've seen shows that she's doing even better than Obama did in getting her runner-up's votes - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/26/donald-trumps-bad-month-just-got-worse-because-bernie-backers-just-rallied-to-clinton/

tilde

I too was (am?) a Bernie supporter, so Trump supporters, take the following with that in mind.

* I never had too many illusions about his chances, but was confident that he was a far better candidate than Clinton. Obviously a lot of other Dem. primary voters thoughts so. As did polling.

* Did Bern sell out by endorsing? Who knows. He did a heck of a lot better than expected, and helped show how hollow the D. party is (similar to Trump with R's). That's a valuable accomplishment, since I think the 2-party system itself is an impediment to a real exchange of opinion and negotiation between various sides.

* Booing Clinton was perfectly appropriate given the leaks. Even though, or because of, what the leaks revealed was so obvious, yet intentionally ignored as one of those un-spoken subjects that it's better to just leave alone. So good. Let'em resign someone.

* Now that Hillary's numbers are slipping, Hill and the DNC are adopting most of Bern's issues (in the face of everything we know about Hill's cash relationship with big donors, but at least that's some nominal progress.).

* As far as I'm concerned, if the D. party loses it's not because they couldn't have won by putting up a better candidate. This is so obvious now that it must be really unpleasant for the D. party / Clinton loyalists. They should look for sympathy from somewhere else.

* I think Silverman has a charm to her, but I also think her comedy act is too much about profanity and shock. I don't find her endorsement especially relevant though.

Swamp Yankee

Amazon is no doubt working on it!

kao_hsien_chih

First, the numbers in the polls cited are somewhat out of date and the trends covered have not continued since then. I'd be hesitant about making too much out of those numbers just yet.

Now, once you look under the hood at the details of the ABC-WaPo poll, to the degree that WaPo would let you (I tend not to trust polls that don't give you detailed cross-tabs), there is absolutely nothing that suggests that Sanders voters are actually rallying to Clinton: no question that disaggregates the respondents by whom they had supported in the primaries, and within those subsets, what their demographics and partisan affiliations are. The article is drawing their conclusion that Sanders voters are flocking, allegedly, to Clinton on the basis of the Pew polling results that claim that the average Sanders voter is more afraid of the Republicans than the average Clinton voter. Thus, it must mean that they are more likely to vote for Clinton than Clinton voters. In practice, all that the Pew numbers that it cites show is that the AVERAGE Sanders voter is more fearful of the Republicans than the AVERAGE Clinton voter. That's sophistry, cherrypicking convenient numbers and drawing lazy conclusions from them, and how one lies, even unintentionally, with misleading statistics.

The Sanders coalition has been a pretty diverse one, something that the MSM has been conveniently ignoring: about 1/3-2/5 of the Sanders voters aren't even Democrats. Between 1/4 and 1/3 of Sanders voters think that Obama has been too liberal. Yes, the average Sanders voter is more liberal than even the average Democrat. A large minority of the Sanders voters are not. It's not so much that they are "conservative," but rather that they don't fit the liberal-conservative continuum. They don't care much about politics, usually. Sanders has offered the Democrats the chance to gain these voters. HRC is seemingly set on kicking these voters out, out of sheer hubris that their support can be counted on.

It is not very likely that Trump will gain all the voters in this minority of Sanders voters who are NOT liberals: the best he can do, based on the premise that he does gain most of them, is to eek out a narrow victory. It's not very probable. But thinking that all the Sanders voters will fall behind HRC just because the average Sanders voter will is a dangerous delusion.

kao_hsien_chih

PS. Yet another reason to not trust the WaPo piece: the Pew Survey does not even address the non-partisans in the electorate. 1/3 to 40% of the Sanders voters were not even Democrats. The poll offers nothing to say about those people and where they might wind up. Trump will have trouble courting them, but if HRC keeps up her high and mighty act, they might wind up in Trump camp unwillingly.

Swamp Yankee

Not bad guesses, Col. Lang and rjj! I like both the Worcester Hills and New Hampshire, but the direction is South-Southeast. The Plymouth Woods, as it has been called historically, also known as cranberry country. A few hundred square miles of pine barrens, kettle ponds (i.e., glacial lakes), cedar swamps, and cranberry bogs situated between Cape Cod Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Narragansett Bay. The Pretty People usually and thankfully pass right by on their way to their Cape Cod McMansions. Still, even though we're not as hard hit as the Cape or parts of coastal Maine, there's lots of colonization going on by the affluent metros who think we're "quaint." We're at the front lines of the metropolitan-countryside conflict here.

FWIW, I went to high school and middle school almost on top of where your Alden kin, Col. Lang, had their first little cottage in the 1630s. The foundation was still out there when I was a kid a few decades ago. We used to play baseball next to it.

And yes, rjj, Metro-West, as the Globe calls it, has been thoroughly colonized. Since we here in the Old Plymouth Colony are some of the last extant woods and fields within 60 miles of Boston, the realtors and yuppies are trying to do the same thing here. We will resist the colonizers, come what may. My Father and I swam in one of our favorite ponds today, with flowers found only here blooming on its shore (the Plymouth Gentian), an endemic species of turtle (Plymouth red-bellied slider), trout and bass and white pines. We love it and aim to keep it, the people of this little corner of the republic.

turcopolier

Swamp Yankee

John Alden is my 9th great grandfather. I am descended from his daughter, Elizabeth. When I was a kid lieutenant platoon leader in 2/2 Infantry Regiment we were at Ft. Devens. The place was too small to train in adequately so we trained a lot at Camp Edwards in the shank of Cape Cod and in Leominster forest. for bigger things we went to the White Mountains National Forest, Alaska, Yakima in Washington State, northern Norway, tidewater Virginia for amphib training. It was a great thing for a 22-24 year old with 45 men. pl

Seamus Padraig

"What impressed me was whenever the camera panned the crowd, you could see the tears and disappointment in the faces of the loyalists who would have crawled across broken glass had he asked. It is a measure of his intelligence and kindness that he did not ask that."

In telling them to vote for Hellary, Sanders WAS asking them to crawl across broken glass! Hence the tears ...

Karl Kolchack

What Sanders has discovered is that a little known senator from one of the smallest states in the country should never have been able to as well as he did. His "revolution" was not about him, but what he purportedly stood for. And his supporters are not sociopathic politicians who can change positions 180 degrees on a dime, but real human beings who still care about the issues he raised even though he personally chose to capitulate.

Swamp Yankee

That sounds pretty great, Colonel -- have a friend who was a doctor in the naval reserves who always spoke of northern Norway with great fondness. And my father also talks about doing his training in the White Mountains and a rendezvous with a submarine in the Chesapeake when he was in the Army a few decades past. Evidently they're big!

Read somewhere that there are something like 6 million living descendants of the Aldens. Pretty incredible.

Camp Edwards is still going strong. It saw a lot of use these last 15 years for Mass. Nat'l Guard training for Afghanistan and Iraq. There was actually a forest fire there last week that burnt about 20 acres, but pitch pines propagate after fires, so it should be alright.

Brunswick

Many of Bernies supporters cringe when even he say's her name.

Since she became the presumptive nominee, Sander's has focused his effort on:
- attacking Trump and the Republicans,
- pointing out what's wrong economically and how the Democratic Party Platform will help address that.

That's tactically and strategically the best use of Bernie's time.

Some of the HillaryBot's however, are continuing to attack Bernie and his supporters for their not making every tweet, speech and press release "all about Hillary".

Sadly, there is a large element of peoples involvement politics that is all about personality cults and winning at all costs, policy be damned.

Tyler

Steve Calhoun,

LMBO no. Yeah its those evil Republicans who have gone along with 95% of what he said while gay cocoa messiah was helpless. Get out of here.

Trump's tax plan means that the ultra rich pay more, while the middle class is spared trying to run the loophole gamut to maximize deductions.

Trump a globalist? How's the HRC campaign office right now? Melting down at the BernieBros wrecking your coronation?

Tyler

Sam,

No one gives a damn about "favorability" until this year. Get out of here with this nonsense metric.

Tyler

Brenner,

Breaking picture of myself and other SST stalwarts after the heretics around here have been purged.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/fe/88/fa/fe88fa3511767b515d65b1784d62a4c3.jpg

See who you can identify.

Tyler

steve,

I know when you are getting paid to not understand a thing it is very hard to make you understand it, but I will lay it out for you:

The DNC emails showing the active screwing of Bernie in favor of Hilldog should have thrown any pledges out the window. Instead, he demanded a private plane as his price for not contesting the convention.

Tyler

HankP,

Try linking to a story that isn't a month old next time, you hack.

Hillary is losing or tied in all polls taken this week. Cry more.

Tyler

Babak,

I'm mocking his tendency to state "everything is fine! no one panic!" in the face of horror after horror.

The Twisted Genius

Dabbler,

Seems Bernie's next move is to start the "My Revolution" political movement. We'll see if this goes beyond the November election. He's mentioned before that his revolution should start supporting like minded candidates at the local and state level. Smart move if they can pull it off. Also looks like Tulsi Gabbard is being groomed as Bernie's protege. Another good move.

Phil Cattar

Colonel,I have two connections to your post.On my mother's side of the family ,Miles Standish was my 17th Great grandfather per Ancestry .com and family history.On my father's side a distant cousin of mine, Col Richard J Kattar ,was the commander of Ft Devins at one time. I corresponded with him many years ago when he was in Europe.His family was from Zahle Lebanon.He was pulled out of retirement to face an Article 15 for taking kickbacks from some company doing business on post.But he was not convicted.He was a graduate of the Naval War College in June 1973.Someone of the web commented e was the last graduate of it who was a high school dropout.

turcopolier

Phil Cattar

17th? The Mayflower generation is 9 generations back in my family. I was at Ft Devens in 1962-64. He must have been a WW2 veteran. There were a very few of those who had limited educations. BTW, my unit was a tenant on the post and would not have been under the post commander who was basically a housekeeper for the facility. pl

The Twisted Genius

Phil Cattar and pl,

Colonel Kattar was Post Commander when I was at Devens in 1981-85. We in Group generally considered him as a meddling dickhead. (Sorry Phil.)

Stephanie

I understand that it still gets Simon's goat that his most famous tune is so closely identified with Garfunkel. He should have swallowed his pride and invited Artie to come sing it. Would have been a fine moment, as you say.

Stephanie

Almost half of Sanders' supporters had already gone over to Clinton, even while Sanders was dragging his heels and refusing to concede. Had he dropped out earlier, after New York, HRC might still be running scared of his populist hordes. He lost a lot of potential leverage. He once said he'd consider being her veep but by the end there was no hope of even a token vetting.

HankP

kao_hsien_chih -

Here's a summary from yesterday - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/25/the-democratic-convention-is-chaotic-the-democratic-base-isnt/

and the poll the data was taken from - http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/25/in-clintons-march-to-nomination-many-democrats-changed-their-minds/

Of course anything can happen, but it looks like there's not a huge change from recent elections. In 2012 most Republicans reconciled themselves to Romney, and in 2008 most of the Republicans reconciled themselves to McCain and Clinton supporters reconciled themselves to Obama. So I'd have to see some pretty strong evidence to indicate that it's different this time. I'm an older guy, I've seen the young true believers at conventions for decades. Most of them wind up supporting the party that aligns with their views, period. Ideological purity and the candidates personality is over-weighted in media coverage but not in the final result.

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