If you read through all the linked material below, you might reach something like the conclusions that I have:
1. Turkey continues to allow/support re-supply and reinforcement of Nusra/Ahrar al-Sham forces in the Latakia and Aleppo princes of Syria. These forces continue to play the major role in attempts to block government and YPG interdiction of the Castello Highway into rebel held parts of Aleppo City. This is presently the only available LOC into rebel territory. As of the 11th of July the SAA Tiger forces armored brigade has closed from the north to within several hundred meters of the Castello Highway after having taken, lost and re-taken the Mellah farms area. at the same time the YPG Kurds having re-taken the Sheikh Maqsood neighborhood south of the Castello Road are also close enough to make the road unusable to the rebels through attacks by fire. The RUAF contributes mightily to this interdiction situation through more or less continuous strkes on the road in its loop from the west through the jaws of the SAA and YPG disturbance of this route into the city.
2. In response the rebels, principally Nusra Front and other jihadi groups supported by Turkey, the US and Saudi Arabia have been heavily shelling government held parts of the city using weapons and ammunition that continued to be supplied by their foreign sponsors through Turkish border control posts on the Hatay Province/Syria border. It should be noted that the government held parts of Aleppo City are the place where the great majority of Syrian civilians live.
3. Additionally, the variegated rebel groups are counter-attacking on the ground wherever they can engage. They are attacking the Tiger Forces brigade from the NW seeking to threaten the rear line of communications of the brigade enough to force another withdrawal from the high ground overlooking the Castello Highway. This worked once a few days ago and the brigade had to fight to re-take the lost ground, losing men and equipment in the process. At the same time rebel forces are attacking to the NW and SW from WITHIN the rebel held parts of the city with the evident objective of opening a new LOC to their friends outside the government area of Aleppo City by breaking out of what is now an encirclement.
4. If the rebels within the encirclement cannot break out somewhere or re-open the Castello Road as an LOC to the inner city they are certainly going to lose their foothold in the city . It will be just a matter of time.
5. At Manbij east of Aleppo, the SDF/YPG Kurd/Arab alliance have so far been unable to capture the city. This, despite heavy US air support and the mentorship of US SF. This not a good sign. Here as in the defeat of the SAA attempt to advance to Tabqa air base, a shortage of means on the ground is evident.
6. While all this is occurring the MSM in the US is trying to develop the idea that Erdogan has made a serious effort to regain Russian favor by distancing Turkey from the non-IS jihadi AQ allied rebel forces in Lattakia and Aleppo provinces. These are the same jihadi forces that Turkey has continued to help with massive assistance to the present day. At the same time, apparently to "sweeten" the appeal of Turkey's "offer" to the Russians, the US has supposedly made an offer of joint operations in Syria to the Russians, perhaps from Incerlik Air Base at Adana in Turkey. I agree with those like "b" who say that this is yet another trick like the late un-lamented cessation of hostilities.
7. Erdogan is trying to win the day through chicanery. The Russians would be well advised to demand several "pounds of flesh" at each stage of a rapprochement. with Turkey.
8. At the tactical level, it would seem logical that ground mounted surveillance radar placed on the heights overlooking the Castello Road would enable SAA artillery fire and Russian air in keeping the road closed to rebel traffic. the road can easily be cratered by Russian air and all bridges or overpasses wrecked and collapsed. In that situation, repair work should be interesting and challenging. pl
https://southfront.org/major-syria-developments-soon/
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/civilian-onslaught-continues-aleppo/
https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-july-11-2016-heavy-clashes-in-aleppo-city/
Babak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H77fRz1rybs
Posted by: kxd | 12 July 2016 at 02:51 PM
Yes, he was a great entertainer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ksq-niTGII
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 12 July 2016 at 03:56 PM
Thanks. Good catch on JAN in Idlib province. Let me know if you see anything from IS in the east. I'm finding nothing.
Posted by: bth | 12 July 2016 at 04:34 PM
Also good catch. Note though main cargo tanks appear to not have burned and side saddle fuel tanks imploded but did not burn which would suggest they might have been empty.
Here is best and only article I've found in six weeks which is excellent and from Cockburn of Independent regarding Iraq trucking. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-mosul-baghdad-anbar-raqqa-iraq-syria-a7062346.html
A couple of key points, it costs $7K USD in bribes to move one truck from Baghdad to al-Asad Air Base. Frozen chicken at $1 USD in Turkey costs $4 in Iraq. A $5 pair of Turkish jeans cost $40 in Irbil. A lot of food being imported from Iran. Trucking routes and sectarian check points sound like something from the middle ages.
Posted by: bth | 12 July 2016 at 04:40 PM
"simply being not worth the risk for independent truckers".
The tanker truck traffic on highways transiting Osmaniye, Turkey is miniscule compared to a year ago. RuAF has taken ~3000 such trucks out of service.
Ishmael Zechariah
Posted by: Ishmael Zechariah | 12 July 2016 at 05:09 PM
Ghostship,
Quite a few of Syrian Turkmen are Shia- they got no help when previously attacked. tayyip is not a "Turk" except when it suits his convenience. A pox on him and all his supporters-past, present and future.
Ishmael Zechariah
Posted by: Ishmael Zechariah | 12 July 2016 at 05:20 PM
To your point, looks like IS is shifting teapot refineries to Iraq. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/07/satellite-photos-show-isis-installing-hundreds-of-makeshift-oil-refineries-to-offset-losses-from-air-strikes/#comments Note the referenced WaPo photos are almost within artillery range to recent US/Iraqi Army advances SSW of Mosul.
What I have been wondering is if the flow of cash to Turkey via oil trucking has essentially ended in recent months not just to bombing but to the strategic moves of the Kurds, US, Russia and Syrian government. Southern trucking is important to Turkey. Could this be playing a part in Erdogan's recent weathervane-like policy shifts.
Posted by: bth | 12 July 2016 at 05:46 PM
"like something from the middle ages"
Per the Makkinejad Theses, as Western-created states atrophy and disintegrate, those areas would revert to type.
We have witnessed it in Afghanistan, Congo, Somalia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, all of Western Sub-Saharan Africa.
In the ripeness of time, such areas could expand to include all of Central Asia, all of North Africa, and much of Africa excepting a few such countries as Senegal, Ghana, South Africa.
Even India and Pakistan are not immune, in my opinion; nor are the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Peace is an absolute minimum requirement for the continued existence of most of the world's countries; war is almost like lighting a fuse to their destruction; in my opinion.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 12 July 2016 at 07:41 PM
Huge expose' of al Nusra in Syria. Use of UN vehicle as VBIED was new to me.
Where did they get the hummvees from, trade with ISIS?
http://syrianwar1.blogspot.com/
Posted by: FkDahl | 13 July 2016 at 12:46 AM
One description from that link's exposé I find highly ironic:
"BMP AMB-S used [by Nusra] as a VBIED against Liwa Shuhada al-Yarmouk [pledged allegiance to ISIL] in southern Daraa. [dated November 2015]"
Very useful listing at any rate to prove just how essential a backbone Nusra is to the "revolution", thanks.
Posted by: Barish | 13 July 2016 at 11:59 AM
BREAKING: 'Turkey signals normalisation of relations with Syria' (The Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/13/turkey-pm-greatest-goal-is-to-improve-relations-with-syria-and-iraq
Posted by: Seamus Padraig | 13 July 2016 at 12:16 PM