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16 July 2016

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Bandolero

Pat

Thanks for your reply. I didn't realize that the terms "fraud" and "false flag" would include such scenarios of an "infiltrated" coup or a "sting operation." So I learned that now.

Anyway the options "Let it happen on purpose" and "Make it happen on pupose" seem to be in effect quite close together to me as opposed to a genuine "Surprise" against Erdogan. I don't think Erdogan was surprised - he seems to have been well prepared.

Herb

Regarding the topic at hand, it is incredibly sad to see what is happening to secular Turkey. What are the forces that have pushed such a large contingent of the people towards more militant Islamism? Or have other groups fragmented, migrated, or otherwise diminished in number?

Regarding Obama, I think it was completely reasonable to vote for Obama in 2012. Voting for Romney was a clear vote for war with Iran. At least Obama had doubts, and I believe he was the main reason we didn't force war with Iran and that he prevented Israel from drawing us into one. Romney had no doubts and communicated that very clearly. I did not vote for him or either candidate in 2008, but then, I was unaware how bad McCain was. I thought he was sane. I suppose picking Palin should have been my clue otherwise.

505thPIR

In broad terms, how is the US to allow or disallow the Sultan to pursue his goal of becoming sultan caliph? He has a formidable combination of populist power, nationalism and it would seem, a subjugated, but very powerful military/ internal security apparatus at his disposal. What am I missing?

bth

I think ownership of the nukes is split with the host country.

bth

Also well timed if US carriers are out of the immediate area.

turcopolier

bth

That is not correct. Ownership of the nukes is In NO WAY shared with the "host" NATO country. The nukes are altogether under US control until an order is issued from the NCA (US) to release them to the Turks (in this case). Positive control over arming is maintained to that point, but the fact remains that these nukes are on a TURKISH air base within Erdogan's country. pl

turcopolier

505th PIR

you have answered your own question. We have little leverage until we recognize that Turkey's NATO membership is a vestige of the Cold War and it should end. pl

Babak Makkinejad

The 2 main opposition parties came out against the coup as well.

Babak Makkinejad

That would be another dead-end, for Turkey as well as the Sunni-dom. There were good reasons that the Ottoman Empire crashed and burned - it could not cope with the realities that has been created by the European Christians in the world.

How does one deal with an electorate that, for the most part, believes in its bones that the power disparity between Islamdom and the Euro-Americans or Russians is due to deviance from Sharia - in effect God's punishment for being insufficiently observant?

In my view, the Electorate has a right to be wrong and one can neither live other people's history for them nor protect them against the consequences of their own actions; in Turkey, or in Iran or in US.

Seamus Padraig

Yup. And that would nicely explain why Erdogan's blaming Fetullah Gülen, who's a CIA stooge. He wants to incite his AKP base against the US and NATO to justify switching sides in the new cold war. Turkey is now with the Eurasian project.

Big winners: Russia, China, Iran, Syria.
Big losers: US, Europe, KSA, Qatar.

Andrew Korybko did up a nice piece of geopolitical analysis on the fake 'coup': http://thesaker.is/andrew-korybko-analysis-of-turkish-coup-attempt/

turcopolier

Seamus Padraig

Do you have any actual evidence 1 - That Gulen is a CIA stooge? 2 - that the US set up the "coup" or does that line of "thought' just give you a warm, fuzzy feeling? "The aftermath of the failed US-directed and Gulen-inspired coup attempt is already making itself clear, with Prime Minister Yildirim stating that Turkey might reinstate the death penalty to deal with the plotters. This statement is just as symbolic as it is substantial, since not only does it disprove allegations that Erdogan “planned this” himself for some Machiavellian purpose" How does it "disprove" anything? Is it because the EU does not allow the death penalty and this means that
Turkey is turning away from the West? Well, duh, the US allows the death penalty. I think that Turkey under Erdogan IS turning away from the West but this drivel "proves" nothing. pl

Fred

Seamus,

Erdogan is an Islamist. They are enemies of Syria and Russia.

A.I.Schmelzer

My own take, going mostly from shit happens and general history, is the following one:

1: Coupist start plotting. Initially lowish level, slowly expanding, getting their ducks in order etc.
2: Coupists believe they have been found out before they had even remotly completed their preparations. They then made the decision to roll the dice rather then get arrested.
3: Erdogan was initially a bit surprised. I think he had a "list of likely coup suspects" ready, as well as a somewhat longer list of "things I am going to do if I defeat a coup attempt".
It may well be that the actual coupers didnt even contact Erdogans likely coup suspects very much, figuring that these were under observation anyway.

Coup rolled out as it happened, meaning it failed quite strongly. Erdogan has carte blanche to do a bunch of stuff he wanted to do anyway.

I do wonder if his public hate for Gulen is actually some clever obfuscating stupidity. By pretending to be focused on Gulen, he may well hope to blindside and catch remaining Kemalists in MHP and the army, the Kurds, as well as "middle class leftists" from Gezi park unprepared.

Also, Erdogan supporters claim that the Russian Jet downing pilot was a coupist and got killed(earlier rumors had him captured), as well as insinuating that the coupists were behind that "poisoning of Russo-Turkish relations".

The latter is certainly a lie, and Russia knows this, but they can opt to publically believe a lie if it suits their long term interests.

I dont think the reapproachment is long term though. Erdogans priority is to put pressure on the US for various concessions. He cannot put this pressure on the US if he is under pressure from Russia. Still, I think the Kremlin will indulge him. Even if mostly to perhaps drive a wedge between the USA and some of its most odious allies.


 Ishmael Zechariah

bth,

I do not think so. The security systems at Ataturk and Esenboga are quite comprehensive and were immediately re-activated. I personally know that these airports were back in operation 12 hr after the June bombing as well. Domestic flights are now back in place.

This NOTAM does not hurt the US carriers. OTOH THY flies 10+ return flights w/ heavies to USA every day. It is one of their prime routes and a very important feeder into their connections. If this keeps up a week, THY will be damaged. If it lasts until 8/15 it will go bankrupt. I do not think you can neglect the economic component. My guess: once the blockade of Incirlik is lifted THY flights will resume.

Ishmael Zechariah

Mark Logan

A.I. Schmelzer,

It was the speed in his decision to blame Gulin that raised a red flag for me. A man who was taken by surprise would be too concerned with identifying the true perps to play games IMO. Either the man's inner street-rat is very quick or he's had some time to think about it, I reckon.

LeaNder

IZ, while I have noticed tayyip's activities over here, and the masses of people he draws, I missed this institution. But for some time now his German spokesperson's are all over the place.

Another type of "we-are-the-people" democratic force like Pegida, maybe its Turkish AKP supportive Janusface: The European Union of Turkish Demokrats-.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegida
http://uetd.info/

One of its representatives a lawyer from the Rhineland told a German audience and thus me today, that Gulen is both a parallel "Zionist" society in Turkey and supposedly considered antisemitic by German intelligence. Hard to wrap my head around that.

Very, very peculiar to watch these people.

Google translate of the German Wikipedia entry of the party:

https://translate.google.de/translate?hl=de&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fde.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FUnion_Europ%C3%A4isch-T%C3%BCrkischer_Demokraten

Walrus

As more information trickles out, in my opinion, the coup looks like a badly planned amateur hour, thoroughly penetrated by MIT and allowed to run its inevitable course.

I have only circumstantial evidence for my opinion but I draw on history. Hitler detected and penetrated most attempts on his life andGovernment. As Mark Reibling points out, the Soviets were masters of the fake revolutionary movement. Such events as coups are not easy to organise, except perhaps in very Third world countries.

My circumstantial evidence is that:

(a) There was allegedly an increased police presence in Istanbul 12 hours before the attempt. (Telegraph tourist eye witness report). So loyal resources were ready to respond.

(b) The failure to kill, capture or neutralise Erdogan. According to WSJ/Reuters, Erdogan missed being caught at his hotel by "troops rappelling down from helicopters (special forces?). He missed them "by minutes", not impossible except this was during an evening when you might suppose had retired for the night.

© The miraculous night flight, in a Turkish Government Gulfstream II from the holiday resort to Ankara (?). Since when is a Gulfstream and crew able to be assembled that quickly, and a fighter escort to boot, in the middle of the night. Then of course is the question why wasn't it shot down, begging of course the question of the intervening time from leaving the hotel to boarding the aircraft. The plotters do not seem to have had plans (b), © and (d) to pin Erdogan in place

(d) Then there is the sudden appearance of highly belligerent "supporters", the arrest lists, and immediate actions taken by Erdogan that look to me to be preplanned.

Shades of the attempts on Hitlers life. It would be comic if it wasn't tragic.

ex-PFC Chuck

For what it's worth, Sputnik Headline: "42 Helicopters Missing in Turkey Sparking Concerns of a Second Coup Attempt"

http://sputniknews.com/news/20160717/1043162524/helicopters-turkey-coup-erdogan-weapons.html?utm_source=https%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F3Kj4hwY222&utm_medium=short_url&utm_content=bGtf&utm_campaign=URL_shortening


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