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16 July 2016

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Tristero

I suspect this is the same person, who is affiliated with the DHKP-C, formerly Dev-Sol(Devrimci Sol - Revolutionary Left), one of Turkey's oldest and deadliest terrorist groups.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahar_Kimyong%C3%BCr

The pictures provided may be genuine, but the motivations of the source are highly suspect. (Note that I despise Erdogan myself, and wish he would be toppled, but the group with which Kimyongur is affiliated has committed plenty of truly horrific crimes itself.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_People%27s_Liberation_Party/Front

Will Reks

Pat,

I'm open to your reasoned speculation here but I think a poorly executed junior officer's coup as a panicked response to coming purges is somewhat more plausible to me than a false flag.

What could go wrong? That would be giving up control of your airspace.

bth

So what happens to the nukes on base in a situation like this?

Tel

It's almost like some kind of Brotherhood or something.

Eliot

"BTW, gulen and his followers, those "mild islamists" , those dishonorable, mendacious architects of Sledge-hammer and Ergenekon travesties against secular officers deserve all they get and more. Karma?"

Ishmael,

That explains why the army remained on the sidelines?

- Eliot

FB Ali

This was in all likelihood a badly planned or hastily launched coup from within the military. It may well have been precipitated by knowledge of an imminent purge by Erdogan, ie, the purge he is executing now.

It may have been initiated by the Gülen organization (because its supporters are going to bear the brunt of the purge). The CIA probably has ties to Gülen, and may have known of the impending coup; it is also possible that they helped.

Erdogan didn't need the (failed) coup to carry out his planned purges (though he would have perhaps required more time to carry them out without it). He would have to be quite a gambler to have learnt of the planned coup, and to still let it happen and fail; I doubt if he would have considered the risks were worth the prize.

Manufacturing a coup is a very complex and risky undertaking, and it is very doubtful if Erdogan needed to do that to proceed further with his plans.

turcopolier

FB Ali

Somehow I do not think you have ever seen a false flag coup planned and executed by a head of state? That makes the planning of this disinformation operation much easier. pl

turcopolier

bth

Incirlik? This long after the Cold War why would there be any? It is a Turkish air base. pl

turcopolier

Will Reks

Well, the idea of a group of captains and majors (all that is showing thus far) thinking that they could take a couple of thousand conscripts, a few tanks and a handful of aircraft and take over Turkey is so beyond the realm of the possible that I just don't believe it. They must have had guidance from above and it was treacherous. pl

turcopolier

Will Reks

Most of my life was built around "reasoned SPECULATION" and I am quite good at thinking across the gaps in data. If you don't like that don't bother me any more with your presence. "giving up control of your airspace?" The Turkish air force is quite large. There were only a handful of aircraft in this. pl

LJ


Bingo.

bth

Well according to this article from December, security was being upgraded at Incirlik for the 50 B61 nuclear weapons there.
http://www.dw.com/en/reports-us-nuclear-up.grades-in-europe/a-18731756
I'd be happy for someone to tell me I misread this.

turcopolier

bth

Well, then we are even dumber than I would have thought. What the hell were the contingency targets supposed to be? Iran? Russia? Mindless bullshit! This is a Turkish air base. The permanent US presence there is an air base group that shares the base with the Turks and the deployed US air units there now. Essentially, the US personnel, the aircraft and the nukes are now all hostages of the sultan. Erdogan wants to trade us our hostages for Gulen? pl

Ishmael Zechariah

Col. Lang,
"They must have had guidance from above and it was treacherous. "

Yes, indeed. Those who took the bait were planning a response, but the trigger was rigged. They were badly duped.
It is interesting to consider the span of tayyip's response. All major state institutions are being purged of all opposition. He could not have done this without such a pretext. Probably would have triggered some set of international sanctions against Turkey. BTW if Obama and Merkel impose economic sanctions on Turkey, they can get rid of tayyip. He is no Putin.
Ishmael Zechariah

Chris Chuba

False flag operations are always my least favorite theory but in this particular case it does look like a good fit. In addition to some of the other points made, I kept seeing this footage of a group of young soldiers in a jeep driving through a hostile crowd and one of them waiving with a big smile on his face. I found this so out of place, how could this guy be so calm. If I was part of a coup, I'd be sweating bullets and I'd have to think that all but the most psychotic would feel nervous. Also, in all of the footage, I only saw young soldiers. So we have 3,000+ Indians and no Chiefs?

Oh, if Obama reacts to Erdogan's temporary closing of Incirlik by bailing out Turkey with a big fat aid package for our great, moderate Sunni state ally in our war against ISIS wouldn't that be a glorious thing (sarcasm).

FB Ali

Frankly, I do not think that he needed to do anything like that just to proceed with his internal purges.

However, if he now makes a big switch in his foreign policy orientation (towards Russia and China, and away from the US), then it begins to sound much more plausible. Especially with reference to the military, which I believe is much more pro-American than the general public.

Tel

Point deer, call horse.

It does not matter whether this was a false flag, or merely incompetence, or perhaps a mix of both. The result is the same: Erdogan has the power he wanted; his opponents will be in prison soon; the secular Constitution of Turkey will be swept aside (we know this has always been his plan) and the modernization that Ataturk brought to the Ottomans has been rejected.

Apparently this is what the majority of Turks want for themselves.

Just a question of how long the process takes, and how other nations respond to this. I would guess that Russia will respond coldly to any Islamist resurgence, and they weren't exactly warm to Turkey in the first place. Big question mark over how the EU will respond. The Beanheads of Brussels believe in stupid concepts like "momentum", growing the EU by dragging in anyone and everyone... but the people of the EU are right fed up with being told that Sharia is good for them.

ex-PFC Chuck

TTG mentioned on another thread that the carriers Eisenhower and Truman had recently departed the Med in opposite directions. Does anyone know whether they might have been recalled to Turkish shores?

turcopolier

tel

Yes it matters how the EU responds but they have already surrendered to the sultan once. what really matter is whether or not the US will surrender as well and allow the Sultan to pursue his goal of becoming sultan caliph. pl

robt willmann

Here are two articles from today (16 July) about the Incirlik airbase and U.S. military there. This one is from the Daily Sabah, and has the interesting photo of large airplanes from the U.S. Air Force and the German Luftwaffe--

http://www.dailysabah.com/nation/2016/07/16/incirlik-air-base-to-resume-operations-after-being-shortly-sealed-off-following-coup-attempt

This one is from the Stars and Stripes--

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/turkey-closes-air-space-over-incirlik-grounding-us-aircraft-at-base-1.419447

Each one says that the U.S. operations at the air base are using electric generators to continue to supply electric power, which they call "internal power sources".

turcopolier

raven

Yes, reluctantly for lack of anyone better. This time I will vote for neither. pl

michael brenner

The public record tells us that there are about 100 tactical nuclear weapons of various types at the base. I recently read a document stating in detail their specs. That number is greater than anywhere else in Europe. (In total, we have kept about 300 in the European theatre, e.g. Italy, the Netherlands. I'm sure the Poles would be hospitable to a few dozen). They take taking on new significance in the context of Obama's announced $1 trillion upgrade of our nuclear arsenal which will concentrate on smaller, more easily targeted TNWs available for war-fighting scenarios. Unfortunately, I cannot put my hands on the source. (For details on the Obama project, see “As U.S. Modernizes Nuclear Weapons, ‘Smaller’ Leaves Some Uneasy“ WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER The New York Times JAN. 11, 2016)

Mark Logan

Walrus,

All that would also be consistent with the government being tipped off though. Perhaps that caused the planners to move before they are ready. However I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to find out that someone working for Erdogan instigated it within the military as part of a clandestine project to suss out the remaining Kemalists for targeting. Might have been a case of that project getting out of hand. WAG only, but I see a great danger in allowing it to go that far for Erdogan. What if it worked??

It smells funny to me too, I'm playing Devil's Advocate for the moment is all.

michael brenner

Country Air base Number of tactical
nuclear weapons (2010)

Belgium Kleine Brogel 20
Germany Büchel 20
Italy Aviano 50
Netherlands Volkel 20
Turkey Incirlik 50-90

Fred

oofda,

Here's one of many. What is going to happen to the moral of the Turkish army when this is how Erdogan's follows respond/
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4829085,00.html

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