"Despite several rebel attempts at re-opening their last Aleppo supply road and repelling government forces, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) was able to capture the entire Bani Zaid district after a string of recent advances near the Castello road.
Just hours later, the SAA also took control of the Ashrafiyah district, marking a total collapse of rebel groups in northern Aleppo.
Meanwhile, the YPG attacked insurgents at the Bani Zaid district from its western flank as well as taking control of the Youth Housing Project, a site formerly used by Islamist rebels to shell the Kurdish neighbourhood of Sheikh Maqsoud.
Next, government troops will likely try to secure the Castello road and provide civilians a safe way to exit rebel-held districts in East Aleppo." Al Masdar News
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"Jaish al-Fatah is withdrawing much of its fighting force from the Latakia governorate in a last-ditch effort to turn the tables on the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo, the Al-Masdar Al-‘Arabi information website reported on Friday. Al-Masdar Al-‘Arabi claim that these reports are ‘very credible’.
Islamist reinforcements were observed arriving in both western and southern Aleppo. Jaish al-Fatah is going to launch at least one major offensive on government positions in the province in the very near future, and hopes not only to relieve distressed and besieged rebels in Aleppo, but also to cut off the Syrian Arab Army’s supply lines to the governorate’s provincial capital.
On the other hand, the redeployment of the rebels significantly weakens their Latakia frontline, endangering Idlib from its western flank.
At the same time, if the Syrian Arab Army takes control of the city of Aleppo, the Idlib province will be its next target. The Jaish al-Fatah leadership is well aware of this threat of the existential survival of the Islamist coalition." South Front
https://southfront.org/hundreds-of-islamist-rebels-leave-latakia-frontline-for-new-aleppo-offensive/
*****
"At least 75 families have been transferred from the besieged neighborhoods of east Aleppo to the government controlled districts in the west, a local military source told Al-Masdar on Saturday.
The rescued families will be provided shelter and necessities by the government and Russian forces, while the latter continue to transfer people from east Aleppo.
Most of these civilians were living under the Free Syrian Army’s (FSA) rule near the Bani Za’id District before the aforementioned area was captured by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on Wednesday." Al Masdar News
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/least-75-families-rescued-east-aleppo/
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For those of you who are interested in such things I offer the following observations concerning today's Syrian situation.
The R+6 encirclement of East Aleppo grows ever more solid. All counter-attacks intended to break the cordon have failed. South Front thinks that the next SAA move will be to try to take Kafr Hamra just outside the encirclement to the NW. Evidently the rebels have been using this place for firing positions for indirect harassing fire into the government and YPG south of Kafr Hamra. It is easy to see why they would want to do that but they should expect this effort to be a focal point for more counter-attacks. There will be other counter-attacks intended to break through to East Aleppo but Kafr Hamra is likely to be a main effort for the rebels. In other reporting cited above it is noted that the rebels are pulling a lot of their men off the western Latakia front where they have been very engaged with R+6. These are among the forces that will undoubtedly be thrown into counter-attacks at Aleppo City. The decision on the part of the rebels to strip their western Latakia front is IMO indicative of rebel and/or Turkish belief that the outcome at Aleppo will be politically decisive in the outcome of the war especially in the context of the desperate internal situation now faced by Turkey.
Surrenders of non-jihadi rebels now in the city are being facilitated by the government. That is likely to remove many fighter from the contest.
The civilian population flow out of East Aleppo has begun and will probably grow larger and larger. pl
Barish et al
Yes. Our forecast of the rebels likely actions are occurring on the battlefield. I would expect that rebels inside the encirclement would now try to link up with their friends in the 1070 complex. We will also see what R+6 has in applicable reserves of troops and fire with which to re-take the ground. As we have said the rebels know that the fall of East Aleppo would probably be decisive in the war and are making a maximum effort and burning up men and equipment in the process.
Posted by: turcopolier | 01 August 2016 at 09:12 AM
Poul
I know these estimates, and also, that everyone agrees that much more people are living in government-held Aleppo than in rebel-held Aleppo.
But my point is different: I suspect population in rebel-held Aleppo to be in reality much lower than OCHA, media etc say, perhaps even as low as a few tens of thousands.
Posted by: Bandolero | 01 August 2016 at 01:51 PM
michael brenner,
" A monkey playing with a live hand grenade" . . . as Lavrov put it some time ago.
Posted by: different clue | 01 August 2016 at 03:07 PM
Trey N,
If such an operation is conducted, I hope the R + 6 does not forget to focus on the foreign fanatics who do it for free, and for fun.
Posted by: different clue | 01 August 2016 at 03:11 PM
All
The cretin Scarborough is pushing "defensive weapons" for Ukraine. Problem there are no defensive weapons as opposed to offensive weapons. The distinction is false. There are only "weapons." All else is a matter of intent. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 01 August 2016 at 05:04 PM
Reports of SAA counter attack in Aleppo.
"Russian Defence Ministry claims that 800 rebels were killed and that 14 tanks, 10 armoured vehicles and 60 cars/pickups equipped with heavy guns were destroyed during these past two days in Aleppo."
Those losses sound unsustainable to me.
Posted by: RenegadePrimate | 01 August 2016 at 05:12 PM