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30 July 2016


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Barish et al

Yes. Our forecast of the rebels likely actions are occurring on the battlefield. I would expect that rebels inside the encirclement would now try to link up with their friends in the 1070 complex. We will also see what R+6 has in applicable reserves of troops and fire with which to re-take the ground. As we have said the rebels know that the fall of East Aleppo would probably be decisive in the war and are making a maximum effort and burning up men and equipment in the process.



I know these estimates, and also, that everyone agrees that much more people are living in government-held Aleppo than in rebel-held Aleppo.

But my point is different: I suspect population in rebel-held Aleppo to be in reality much lower than OCHA, media etc say, perhaps even as low as a few tens of thousands.

different clue

michael brenner,

" A monkey playing with a live hand grenade" . . . as Lavrov put it some time ago.

different clue

Trey N,

If such an operation is conducted, I hope the R + 6 does not forget to focus on the foreign fanatics who do it for free, and for fun.



The cretin Scarborough is pushing "defensive weapons" for Ukraine. Problem there are no defensive weapons as opposed to offensive weapons. The distinction is false. There are only "weapons." All else is a matter of intent. pl


Reports of SAA counter attack in Aleppo.

"Russian Defence Ministry claims that 800 rebels were killed and that 14 tanks, 10 armoured vehicles and 60 cars/pickups equipped with heavy guns were destroyed during these past two days in Aleppo."

Those losses sound unsustainable to me.

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