Syria - 30 July 2016

 

"Despite several rebel attempts at re-opening their last Aleppo supply road and repelling government forces, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) was able to capture the entire Bani Zaid district after a string of recent advances near the Castello road.

Just hours later, the SAA also took control of the Ashrafiyah district, marking a total collapse of rebel groups in northern Aleppo.

Meanwhile, the YPG attacked insurgents at the Bani Zaid district from its western flank as well as taking control of the Youth Housing Project, a site formerly used by Islamist rebels to shell the Kurdish neighbourhood of Sheikh Maqsoud.

With the SAA and YPG teaming up on the jihadists in Aleppo, it now seems almost impossible for rebel forces to avoid a full-blown defeat in the battle for Syria’s largest city, often dubbed ‘the mother of all battles’.

Next, government troops will likely try to secure the Castello road and provide civilians a safe way to exit rebel-held districts in East Aleppo."  Al Masdar News

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/southfront-aleppo-victory-within-sight-syrian-army-ypg-keep-advancing/

*****

"Jaish al-Fatah is withdrawing much of its fighting force from the Latakia governorate in a last-ditch effort to turn the tables on the Syrian Arab Army in Aleppo, the Al-Masdar Al-‘Arabi information website reported on Friday. Al-Masdar Al-‘Arabi claim that these reports are ‘very credible’.

Islamist reinforcements were observed arriving in both western and southern Aleppo. Jaish al-Fatah is going to launch at least one major offensive on government positions in the province in the very near future, and hopes not only to relieve distressed and besieged rebels in Aleppo, but also to cut off the Syrian Arab Army’s supply lines to the governorate’s provincial capital.

On the other hand, the redeployment of the rebels significantly weakens their Latakia frontline, endangering Idlib from its western flank.

At the same time, if the Syrian Arab Army takes control of the city of Aleppo, the Idlib province will be its next target. The Jaish al-Fatah leadership is well aware of this threat of the existential survival of the Islamist coalition."  South Front 

https://southfront.org/hundreds-of-islamist-rebels-leave-latakia-frontline-for-new-aleppo-offensive/

*****

"At least 75 families have been transferred from the besieged neighborhoods of east Aleppo to the government controlled districts in the west, a local military source told Al-Masdar on Saturday.

The rescued families will be provided shelter and necessities by the government and Russian forces, while the latter continue to transfer people from east Aleppo.

Most of these civilians were living under the Free Syrian Army’s (FSA) rule near the Bani Za’id District before the aforementioned area was captured by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) on Wednesday."  Al Masdar News

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/least-75-families-rescued-east-aleppo/

--------------

For those of you who are interested in such things I offer the following observations concerning today's Syrian situation.

The R+6 encirclement of East Aleppo grows ever more solid.  All counter-attacks intended to break the cordon have failed.   South Front thinks that the next SAA move will be to try to take Kafr Hamra just outside the encirclement to the NW.  Evidently the rebels have been using this place for firing positions for indirect harassing fire into the government and YPG south of Kafr Hamra.    It is easy to see why they would want to do that but they should expect this effort to be a focal point for more counter-attacks.  There will be other counter-attacks intended to break through to East Aleppo but Kafr Hamra is likely to be a main effort for the rebels.  In other reporting cited above it is noted that the rebels are pulling a lot of their men off the western Latakia front where they have been very engaged with R+6.  These are among the forces that will undoubtedly be thrown into counter-attacks at Aleppo City.  The decision on the part of the rebels to strip their western Latakia front is IMO indicative of rebel and/or Turkish belief that the outcome at Aleppo will be politically decisive in the outcome of the war especially in the context of the desperate internal situation now faced by Turkey. 

Surrenders of non-jihadi rebels now in the city are being facilitated by the government.  That is likely to remove many fighter from the contest.

The civilian population flow out of East Aleppo has begun and will probably grow larger and larger.  pl 

Comments

[FB Ali]

It seems that the Gulfies have gotten angry with the US.

Frequent reports (from Al Jazeera and the Syrian Observatory) are now appearing about Western airstrikes killing civilians.

Previously it was only the Russians and Syrians who did that!

[Trey N]

Great news! And the sooner the battle for Aleppo is over the better.

R+6 badly needs to free up major forces to clean out and reclaim eastern Syria before the Borg can sink a firm(er) foothold in that area. If Turkey really is pivoting from the Borg toward Russia -- and that certainly appears to be what's happening -- then the liver-eaters' supply lines should be/already are being cut by Turkey sealing its borders. Such a development would mean game, match and set for the R+6 and the end of the line for the Borg designs on Syria (and hopefully in Iraq, as well).

There are signs that Erdogan is not only making peace with Russia, but that he may be returning all the way back to his former "zero problems with neighboring countries" foreign policy. Pray to God that's true - it would be the best of all possible news for the beleaguered people of Syria and Iraq.

[Ghostship]

The Borg's response:
The Latest: US calls Syria safe passage in Aleppo ‘chilling’

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-latest-syrias-assad-offers-amnesty-to-rebels/2016/07/28/310783f0-549e-11e6-b652-315ae5d4d4dd_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-latest-syrias-assad-offers-amnesty-to-rebels/2016/07/28/310783f0-549e-11e6-b652-315ae5d4d4dd_story.html">https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-latest-syrias-assad-offers-amnesty-to-rebels/2016/07/28/310783f0-549e-11e6-b652-315ae5d4d4dd_story.html
Behind paywall so go incognito in Chrome.
American envoy Samantha Power tweeted @AmbassadorPower that the “chilling letter ... warns Syrians to leave E Aleppo & entrust lives to gov that’s bombed & starved them."
What is the USG doing in Manbij? Dropping flowers on Syrians? Is that woman stupid?
As for Kerry, he didn't want to be left out:
U.S. worries Russian humanitarian operation in Syria may be 'ruse'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-kerry-
The White House also voiced its doubts. "Given their record on this, we're skeptical, to say the least," White House spokesman Eric Schultz said at a news briefing.

[Trey N]

Wonder what the Borgista media will do/say when the R+6 have completely eradicated the liver-eaters from Syria (and then Iraq, hopefully).

I don't they'll even try to spin such an utter debacle for themselves. Get ready for the deafening din of -- crickets chirping....

(And what a sweet sound that will be!)

[Barish]

b named that kind of two-faced US-response rather nicely: "Concern Trolls"

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/07/siege-demonstrates-us-concern-trolls-hypocrisy.html

Ultimately, Power, Kerry or whoever won't be able to stop people residing there from voting with their feet.

[BraveNewWorld]

There are reports of a large reconciliation meeting happening way down in Daraa down by the Israeli border. Combine that with some militant groups reconciling in Aleppo and it may be a sign that the opposition is starting to read the writing on the wall.

[Hank]

Hang on ISIS and other jihadis, Hillary has promised full support for your jihad and turning another country into a dysfunctional, land of horrors. And if this means shooting down Russian jets and attacking Russia militarily and otherwise, so be it. Can you imagine the Syrian Christian father who wakes up each morning in Damascus and looks at his beautiful young daughter and is scared to death about Hillary becoming U.S. President and the fate of his daughter? And the one angel in his life sits in Moscow and is called Hitler by this same woman who might become U.S. President.

Hillary Clinton will reset Syria policy against 'murderous' Assad regime
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/29/hillary-clinton-will-reset-syria-policy-against-murderous-assad/

[b]

We have talked here about lack of soldiers in the Syrian government alliance.

But the movement of Jihadi forces from Latakia to relief Aleppo points to a severe lack of forces on their side.

---
There is an *unconfirmed* rumor coming from the Russian Defense Ministry that ALL weapon supplies from outside Syria to the rebels have stopped. Obama/Kerry admitting defeat?
---

Al-Qaeda in Syria tried a sham rebranding by allegedly cutting ties from Al Qaeda central. It didn't cut ties and did not end its Bayah to AQ central.

Instead a long term AQ central dude was shown in the video announcement next to AQ Syria chief. Elijah Magnier interprets the various AQ writings on this well orchestrate "cutting ties" sham very different than the usual MSM rags.

"It's not Nusra moving away from AQ central but AQ central moving into Nusra"

https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/07/30/did-jabhat-al-nusra-leaves-qaidat-al-jihad-or-it-is-qaidat-al-jihad-that-is-part-of-nusra-now/

http://www.alraimedia.com/ar/article/special-reports/2016/07/26/696963/nr/syria (ar)

I though about this all day and think he is right.

[turcopolier]

b

If Obama/Kerry are accepting defeat they will face resistance from within both the Democratic and Republican wings of the Borg. These creatures dishonor my country with their thinly disguised mindless jingoism and imperial dream. They will not give up easily. One of the worst is Joe Scarborough, a man whom Zbig Brzezinski told to his face on his morning travesty that he was "one of the shallowest men I have ever met." It must be difficult for the old man to accept the idea that his beautiful but limited daughter has taken up with a person like Scarborough. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

All:

FYI:

I have posted a link to a new study in Nature regarding temperature changes in Antarctic on the place-holder thread.

[Trey N]

"These creatures dishonor my country"

They certainly do, Colonel, but it's far worse than that -- they threaten our very existence with their insane provocations of nuclear powers Russia and China. Having NATO play a game of chicken on Russia's borders while having the USN do the same in the South China Sea is, in fact, beyond insane.

What can these lunatics possibly be thinking? That if they can't rule the world, they'd rather destroy it? Is this a stupid bluff a la the Nixon/Kissinger ploy to North Vietnam: "We're just crazy enough to nuke you if we don't get our way!"? Or what???

[Wonduk]

b, you and Mr. Magnier are likely right. AQ global had been moving into Syria since some time. Back to roots of some of their co-founders from al-Talia al-Muqatila formerly of the Syrian Brotherhood (Abu Musab al-Suri, Abu Firas). Zawahiri already in 2013 and '14 was guiding AQAP into a more localised approach. And overall his loyalty goes to the Taliban Amir al-Muminin Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada. Makes him maybe useful and harmless in the eyes of some...
Some people had not gotten the memo in time. An Uzbek group (Katiba Imam Bukhari) in Syria recently 'pledged' to Haibatullah with a video. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uyMvsX4KN8)

[Ex-PFC Chuck]

It's an appropriate term, but it's not original with b.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=concern+troll

[JohnsonR]

"Such a development would mean game, match and set for the R+6 and the end of the line for the Borg designs on Syria (and hopefully in Iraq, as well)."

It would be nice to think so, and Turkey giving up will certainly end the game as it has been played to date, but there are still significant players in the region who are not yet ready to give up on their determination to see Assad overthrown or damaged as much as possible - the Gulf sunni despots and Israel. With a potential Clinton regime coming in at the end of the year openly planning to re-stimulate the regime change effort, we could see some serious leaning on Jordan to replace Turkey and a refocusing of interference to the south and east.

Presumably there will need to be endless caterwauling about "Assad regime atrocities" (we are already seeing that starting from the R2P types) and an attempt to get a "no fly zone" in the south. It doesn't look possible now, but with a Clinton regime in place and a ton of money and propaganda pumped in, things might look very different. A heated up Israeli confrontation with Hezbollah might help to generate the right kind of hysteria.

After all, as we know they aren't limited by reality. They're an empire, and they make their own reality.

[Bandolero]

All

I doubt that many civilians will "flow out of East Aleppo" because I don't believe that there are many civilians left there. Have a look yourself. Vice reported in a documentation East Aleppo being a ghost town in fall 2014:

https://youtu.be/CiyyWiO-IKY

Guardian journo Martin Chulov reported from East Aleppo in December 2014 "Estimate 50,000 civilians max still in opposition half" and added "50k is generous, by the way."

https://twitter.com/martinchulov/status/539456403170426880

Now media are telling that 250k to 400k people/civilians are in East Aleppo. I am highly skeptical of that claim. If Chulov was right in 2014/2015 about 50 civs, where are the news about a huge wave of migration towards rebel-held Aleppo after that? There were none. It was always exodus reported.

And what I have seen in "opposition" videos from East Aleppo during the last 2 years were a largely empty streets. When the army took control of the district Bani Zaid, I didn't see civs there, just empty buildings. I won't wonder if that is quite similar in other rebel-held districts. The people of East Aleppo voted with their feet against the rebels, ISIS and Al Qaeda. Those who are left there seem to be hardly more than "rebels" and friends and family. Rebels have looted all industry and business, so there is nothing to work and live from for civs not directly aligned with rebels in East Aleppo.

But I understand very well why people would want to say that there are many more civs in East Aleppo. Reasons are plenty. Humanitarian aid is calculated per head, so more people menas more aid. That means those who receive the aid have an incentive to make numbers of people in need larger. I find it interesting that the "local council of (rebel-held districts in) Aleppo city" estimates the number of people there at 400k and he head of the council, Brita Hagi Hasan, said 10 days ago:

"... We stored food supplies, flour and fuel as per our capacities. We have a stock of food supplies to last us for a certain period that I cannot disclose, but it is reassuring. ..."

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/syrian-regime-impose-blockade-aleppo-castello-road.html

Also, other parties may have political interests in spreading numbers of civs in East Aleppo bigger than they really are. Just imagine the common estimated number of civs in East Aleppo would be just 10k. In that case there would be no reason to even discuss the Aleppo situation at length in Geneva or the Security Council anymore. Aleppo would be all but done.

If I'm right and the real numbers of people in East Aleppo are much smaller than the numbers currently circulating we may soon witness a sudden collapse of all rebel-held East Aleppo, just as surprising as sudden collapse of rebels in Bani Zaid.

[Sam Peralta]

I found this fascinating. The foreign jihadis in Syria are fighting primarily to achieve personal objectives, while the Syrian ones apparently have some political/social objectives.

https://theintercept.com/2016/07/30/new-documentary-pierces-the-psychology-of-modern-suicide-bombers/

These wars in that sense are not the traditional liberation movements and guerilla movements that we have seen in the past. What are the implications of this kind of nihilism? How do we prevent these people from inflicting harm on our societies?

[Ghostship]

"Obama/Kerry admitting defeat?"
Maybe not. Just a guess but maybe they have finally confronted what will come after them and have decided to end the conflict before HRC and her team can come to power. They can't be too obvious about how they do it as that would be seen as being disloyal to HRC, but turning off the weapons flow to the rebels/terrorists would probably be the least problematic way since most of it is clandestine. Additionally, if Syria is off the table, voters who are terrified enough by HRC's foreign policy madness to vote Trump might return to the Democratic fold, although there's always a worry that she might restart this Syrian mischief after she's elected.

[robt willmann]

There is a report/rumor that Turkey has blocked off the roads in and out of the Incirlik airbase there with its U.S. personnel. I do not know if it is true, as of now (Saturday, 30 July).

[Amir]

The link to "confirm" you assertion:

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160731/1043797161/incirlik-turkey-erdogan-nato-nukes.html

[Amir]

More:

1,000s Turkish forces surround NATO’s Incirlik air base for ‘inspection’ amid rumors of coup attempt:
https://www.rt.com/news/354042-turkish-police-incirlik-nato-coup

Anti-US rally staged at NATO Incirlik air base in Turkey (VIDEO, PHOTOS):
https://www.rt.com/news/353753-turkey-protest-incirlik-base/

Thousands protest outside U.S. base in Turkey:
http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/2016/07/28/thousands-protest-outside-us-base-incirlik-turkey/87665750

[Trey N]

Israel has had a rapprochement with Turkey lately, as well as playing footsie with Russia. The King of Jordan is no fool. Remember how he closed his borders to obviously open aid to the Saudi stooges when the Russians swooped into Syria last fall -- he recognized the changed reality immediately.

Even if the evil Borg Queen manages to steal the election, it will be 6 months from now before she takes office.

There is no way in hell the liver-eaters will last 6 months if their supply lines thru Turkey are cut today.

Hitlery and her neocons may be insane enough to try and invade Syria with US military forces next year, but their usual preferred option of using jihadists as their cats paw will be off the table by then. So will the US boots option, in all likelihood -- if Obama couldn't do it in 2013, there is almost no way Hitlery can pull it off in 1017.

Short of a game-changing miracle for the liver eaters, the end is mighty close at hand for them if Erdogan is indeed desperate enough to meet Russia's demands for reconciliation and closes Turkey's borders to the jihadists.

[FNG Frank]

Yeah, a clusterf*ck is developing in Turkey. Looks like more world events conspiring to elect Trump. But hey, this perfumed prince has an alibi. He was drinking with Geraldo:

Geraldo Vouches for US General Accused of Plotting Failed Turkish Coup
http://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/07/26/geraldo-vouches-us-general-accused-plotting-failed-turkish-coup.html

I'm sold on Trump, but at this point I'll settle for #Make America Half-Way Respectable Again.

[elaine]

Yahoo news is reporting that Military Times is reporting thousands of Turks
burning U.S. flags & protesting outside of Incirlik base. I don't subscribe
to Military Times & had a difficult time posting a link.

[RenegadePrimate]

Picking up on what Ghostship said, Prof Stephen Cohen said his sources had told him Obama was very concerned about his 'legacy' and hence wanted to resolve Syria peacefully.

No doubt he's being opposed by various vested interests.

The end result is a sort of splintered US foreign policy which the sitting president attempts to present as an internally consistent whole.

In reality, the whole may or may not be unified behind the overtures of the part.

So when the Russia led coalition considers the possible spectre of a hawkish Clinton presidency, and the inscrutability of US diplomatic assurances, the imperative is to irreversibly align the facts on the ground in Assad's favour before November.

[Poul]

Population map of Aleppo based on OCHA(Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs)data. It's pretty clear that the government control part has most of the civilian population remaining.

http://www.mediafire.com/convkey/9b41/63vi35xtwuwjxnpzg.jpg