Our hydrogen bombs or Erdogan's?

 

"Erdogan to announce tomorrow major policy change after the National Security Council (MGK). Could be something drastic, like leaving NATO, or giving up the EU membership application. Or even maybe declaring himself president for life, effectively taking over the entire state apparatus. Or even disbanding the parliament, and calling for a new referendum and election."  A Turk

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"As of 2005^[update], 180 tactical B61 nuclear bombs of the 480 U.S. nuclear weapons believed to be deployed in Europe fall under the nuclear sharing arrangement.^[7] The weapons are stored within a vault in hardened aircraft shelters, using the USAF WS3 Weapon Storage and Security System. The delivery warplanes used are F-16s and Panavia Tornados"  wiki on Nuclear Sharing

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"The WS3 system consists of a Weapons Storage Vault (WSV) and electronic monitoring and control systems. One vault can hold up to four nuclear weapons and in the lowered position provides ballistic protection through its hardened lid and reinforced sidewalls.^[1] The WS3 system allowed storage directly underneath the aircraft intended to carry the bombs. The location inside the aircraft shelter increased the weapon survivability in case of any kind of attack and prevent monitoring of preparations to use the weapons. The electronic systems include various classified sensors, electronic data-transmission and security equipment such as video, motion detectors, closed circuit TV coupled with thermal imaging devices. These facilities enabled remote controlled weapon safety and made the large security forces obsolete."  wiki on weapons storage  and security system

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"A Turk," whose words are quoted above is a long term commentator on SST.  I consider him to be a good source.

There are between 50 and 90 B-61 variable yield thermonuclear weapons  (hydrogen bombs) stored at Incirlik Air base in SE Turkey.  This base was built by the US starting in 1951 but it has always been a TURKISH base with US tenants.   Some of the weapons are earmarked for US use and some for Turkish use against US/NATO agreed on targets if they are ever released by the US National Command Authority.  The weapons are stored there in a semi-automatic system in vaults under the delivery aircraft.  Small point - There are no US delivery suitable aircraft now stationed at Incirlik.  They would have to brought in from somewhere else to mate them with the bombs.  At the same time, the Turkish Air Force no longer has nuclear weapons certified pilots.

Questions:

1.  What are the targets for which these weapons would possibly be used?   Are there any?  Really?

2.  How firmly are the American airmen at the base in control of these weapons, weapons situated on a foreign base?

3.  Can the weapons be disabled, perhaps remotely?

Let us say, for the sake of argument, that Erdogan controlled forces make a move to seize control of the hydrogen bombs on THEIR BASE.  What could the US do about it?

IMO the US should remove the weapons or disable them as soon as possible.  pl

Comments

[wisedupearly]

After Brexit the Sultan may have decided to pivot eastwards. The West is too demanding and Putin is making all sorts of comforting noises.
How much would Putin give to move Turkey into his sphere.

[mike]

Brendan McGarry of military.com believes the US will keep those nukes at Incirlik despite recent events. He does not cite any govt or pentagon sources so it could just be speculation on his part. Or not?

http://www.defensetech.org/2016/07/18/us-likely-to-keep-nukes-in-turkey-despite-coup-attempt/

[bth]

So our old friend Sadr has announced he is going to 'target' US troops in Iraq specifically with reference to prospect of an air base at Qayarra. He does it right as Turkish base is in jeopardy. What a coincidence. No doubt his cut on the shake down of trucking supplies to the base will have to go up. A lot of good Americans have died because of him. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/07/us-troops-are-a-target-for-us-iraqs-muqtada-al-sadr-says.php

[The Twisted Genius]

Fred,

If those weapons haven't been moved by now, the whole lot of them are dumber than turnips.

[bth]

If we leave them there, even if they are under US control, it will be like leaving children as hostages in an unstable land. We need to get the hostages out of the dungeon. Let Erdogan make his announcement, suck up to Putin or whomever but give us the excuse to move them out. We'll lose the base, but I'm not sure it is doing much for us anyway.

[Fred]

VV,

"He may well ally with Russia..."

He will have to betray ISIS first by sealing the border with Syria and allowing Assad's government to succeed.

[bth]

So this article says there are 14 missing Turkish Navy ships.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-attempt-turkish-navy-ships-admirals-military-president-erdogan-a7144141.html

[different clue]

irf520,

If things get that bad, one hopes these bombs were built with a built-in self-destruct charge which would blow the plutonium chunks apart instead of blowing them together. And also which would make un-analyzable the other most-secret things inside the bombs.

[different clue]

wisedupearly,

How much would Erdogan give up to be permitted to move into the Putin sphere?

[Hank Foresman]

Pat your thoughts on this article over at the Atlantic? http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/07/turkey-erdogan-coup-future/491696/

[Ghostship]

FWIW, my best guess is that Turkey will join the Eurasian Economic Union and then that moron Hillary will crow about how Putin is recreating the Soviet Union ignoring the fact that Turkey was never part of the Soviet Union in the first place and that Turkey was always hostile to the Soviet Union. As for those who thought that Putin should attack Turkey for shooting down a Russian aircraft in dubious circumstances............
BTW, why would Erdogan want the US thermonuclear bombs when he could probably have his own in a few years anyway.

[turcopolier]

ghost ship

Turkey is a long way from being able to make anything like that. pl

[Ishmael Zechariah]

TTG,
I am sure the protection forces are very well trained, dedicated professionals. They would, absolutely, disable the devices and die as necessary. My question was really about the overall US response after such an occurrence. I would hazard the guess that if someone tried this gambit against Putin, they and their entire security apparatus would be disassociated to sub-atomic particle level during the attempt. I also think that this would be the correct response. I further think that Putin would not countenance tayyip taking anything more than an M-60 out of Incirlik. Comments?
Ishmael Zechariah

[turcopolier]

Hank Foresman

At a minimum secular Kemalist Turkey is dead and gone. Kerry warned Erdogan today of possible expulsion from NATO today if the purges continue. We should get on with that. Tayyip broadened his purge today to include 15,000 teachers. They were the very heart of secularism in Turkey. we will see how far he will go after their NSC meeting tomorrow. pl

[turcopolier]

IZ

I agree that the Russians would not countenance this kind of theft. It would be far too disruptive of the international order. "and die as necessary" Not so sure of that. I was once commander of an analogous facility in which you were supposed to die rather than surrender it. I was required to explain that to the men. They just laughed. I guess I am just not a good leader. pl

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Colonel Lang,

In actual case your soldiers would have surprised you, I think. Jesting aside, I, for one, would happily die in a fire-fight, taking out as many of the damn bastards as I can along with me. It would be far better than enduring their tender mercies after surrender. This all reminds me of the poem "The Young British Soldier" by Kipling:
"If your officer's dead and the sergeants look white,
Remember it's ruin to run from a fight:
So take open order, lie down, and sit tight,
And wait for supports like a soldier.
Wait, wait, wait like a soldier . . .

When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains,
And the women come out to cut up what remains,
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains
An' go to your Gawd like a soldier..."

Good sentiments sir.

[turcopolier]

IZ

I have commanded a lot of very tough men who needed little encouragement to fight but I have my doubts about REMFs (Rear Echelon Mother F---ers). I am not trusting of anyone who does not think of himself as a fighter. pl

[Fred]

Ismael,

" I further think that Putin would not countenance tayyip taking anything more than an M-60 out of Incirlik."

Working or in need of a complete overhaul?

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Colonel Lang,
I would have thought that the protection group would be combat infantry with extra training, rotated to guard duty as needed. Just guarding a bunch of devices behind lines would not keep the spear sharp.

Ishmael Zechariah

P.s: BTW, if anyone in SST thinks that the Kipling poem is hyperbole, I would ask them to remember the Russian spotter who called a strike on his own position when surrounded by the jihadis. May the earth rest lightly on him.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Fred,
The firecracker, not the tank.
Ishmael Zechariah

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

Perhaps, but imminent beheading concentrates the mind and improves unit cohesion.

[mike]

Or that Trump will say that Erdogan deserves nukes to protect Turkey from Assad or Putin or Rouhani or take your pick.

[turcopolier]

mike

That implies the Trump is an idiot. I don't think so. I am not going to vote for him nor Hillary but I do not think he is and idiot. pl

[turcopolier]

VV

People tend to hope that they will not be killed by the mob or whatever. People are still surrendering in Syria when it is clear that the jihadis of any kind will kill you if you do. I have been in a lot of combat in places you would not expect where there were not supposed to be people like me. The kind of service I had in intelligence and SF led to that. People vary enormously in their reaction to situations of danger. Perhaps the USAF custodial people would blow themselves to preserve US custody of the weapons. I would prefer not to rely on their fidelity to duty. We should remove the weapons and if that takes force, so be it. pl

[turcopolier]

IZ

B-61 is the firecracker.