Thoughts on Syria - 7 June, 2016

 

1.  Unless the US JCS are once again "off the reservation" and talking to the Russians behind the backs of the Obamanites, I don't think there is much effective coordination between the US and Russia over Syria other than the flight de-confliction regime.

2.  The flight de-confliction regime works well.  We haven't shot each other down yet, so ...  We now have the USS Harry Truman battle group standing inshore off Syria to launch attacks in Syria and Iraq.  This very likely requires passage through Russian controlled airspace within their air defense umbrella.  So ...

3.  Raqqa will be heavily defended.  IS cannot afford to give the place up.  there are probably quite a few Arab Sunni "civilians" there who support IS.  That has proven to be true at Fallujah.  As the R+6 force proceeds after the taking of Tabqa air base, resistance will get stiffer and stiffer.  We will see how well they do against that.  We will also see if the SDF really wants to sacrifice a great deal to capture this large city.  Their American "minders" are urging them forward, but, we will see ...

4.  The Russians evidently thought they could make an honest deal with Kerry/Obama.  Well, they were wrong.  The US supported jihadis associated with Nusra (several groups) merely "pocketed" the truce as an opportunity to re-fit, re-supply and re-position forces.  The US must have been complicit in this ruse.  Perhaps the Russians have learned from this experience.

5.  In the "truce" the Turks, presumably with the agreement of the US, brought 6,000 men north out of the non-IS jihadi defended area along the Turkish border.  This is the area around Azaz and to the east.  They trucked them around and brought them through Hatay Province in Turkey to be sent back into the Aleppo Province and to the city of Aleppo itself.  These men have been used in capturing Khan Touman SW of the city and in driving the YPG Kurds out of the part of the city that they held.  It will cost a lot of men to restore these situations.  Someone said to me that the border crossings from Hatay are under surveillance.   Well, so what!  That does not prevent the Turks supplying the jihadis through these crossing points.

6.  The same someone said that the result of the "cease-fire" positions Putin well in peace negotiations.  Yawn!  As I have said repeatedly, most sensible people know that you have to win on the battlefield unless you are Kerry and the girls at the WH.  There will now be more blood rather than less because of the Kerry/Obama attempt at cleverness.

7.  In a wonderfully clear proof of an absence of coordination between IS and the AQ linked groups (Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, etc.) IS launched a major offensive into the area from which the Turks removed the 6,000 men now in the Aleppo area.  IS has now taken most of that area and are nearly at the gates of the town of Azaz. 

Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.  pl

Comments

[aleksandar]

You are not optimist, just a neocon.
Only the syrian people has the rigth to decide.
It's called "democracy "

[aleksandar]

" the hungry Bear only eats Ukrainians "

Welcome to the Propaganda Staffel

[Charles Michael]

Good , then you have two scenarii:
- perpetual cahos up to the moment some new found moral fortitude (or financial collapse) change the US interventionism policy. The surprise of Trump and Sanders indicate a strong change in US citizen appreciation of the purpose of politics.
The more this cahos last the more EU will unravel
- Merkel Reich and USA achieve their merger, all old partners in nazi Barbarosa invasion are already lined to the exception of Hungria, and let's start the WW III ? or maybe not ?

[aleksandar]

Well.... Babak, Kaliningrad is already a russian enclave.
I totally agree, in Europe, nobody will die for Tallinn or Vilnius

[Brunswick]

Ergodan picked the fight, not the PPK.

http://m.journal-neo.org/2016/02/26/erdogan-s-new-war-on-kurds/

[aleksandar]

Trolls must sleep sometimes..........

[turcopolier]

aleksander

You are calling me a troll? pl

[Brunswick]

There is not much "Russia" can do.

The "tensions" are not there because of Russian actions, they are there because of the Borgist actions, and Russia's responses to what are "real" red lines for Russian National Security.

Russia's choices are pretty simple, either stand up to and try to defeat the Borgist Agenda with a minimal amount of military power, careful diplomacy and out manuvering the Borgists,

Or roll over, disarm, break up into tiny enclaves and hand the wealth and resources of Russia over to the Borgist's.

[Brunswick]

How is it a gross miscalculation?

He got to keep Crimea, the Donbass is breaking the Ukraine and the West is stuck with the bills propping the festering mass of corruption and Nazism barely afloat.

[SmoothieX12]

Don't even bother with responses. He is here not for a discussion.

[Bill Herschel]

b ≠ bth IMHO b is good

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think US Intervention policies are supported lock, stock, and barrel by EU. That some of the consequences have come to hurt EU interests in the short term has not caused any re-evaluation or soul-searching in US or in EU among the foreign policy elites and decision makers.

In the Near East, in the world of Islam, I think US & EU position is devoid of any believable positive view of the future.

I understand what you state about "chaos" - but I think excepting perhaps Somalia, the chaos is more apparent than real.

India is a far more "chaotic" place and yet it functions - but not at the level of Madrid or even Vilnius.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Thanks.

In regards to Kaliningrad, I was trying to allude to NATO's current ability to choke it and also choke Saint Petersburg through its naval and air assets.

It would be a one-shot thing, before the war really starts.

EU is a nice place, I wonder if her leaders have a death-wish at times.

[bth]

Barish the DIA referenced report you linked to was was excellent. The map in the report on 1982 is strikingly similar to the current Syrian battleline.

[Thomas]

Sir,

That was bth's response to your June 8th 3:29 pm comment, his followed below on June 9th 10:08.

Final paragraph from bth:

So you don't like the answer? Don't ask the question. Then you let nearly a dozen St. Pete factory trollers 'fill the space' which is what the technique is called by the EU disinformation committee. Col, I am used to the incessant Russian trolling but your Borgist accusation cuts deeply."

I am "guilty" of this sin if speaking the truth about world as it is identifies one as a Russian.

[Ghost ship]

Be wart of attaching any importance to claims of sectarian behaviour by Iraqi militias and the Iraqi Army that originate in GCC-controlled media. The sectarianism in the Middle East originates from the Wahhabi camp rather than the Iranian camp.
There has been much made of the cruel treatment handed out to Sunnis in Fallujah but the New York Times reports differently:
Shiite militias have played a prominent role in the offensive to retake Falluja after nearly three years of Islamic State rule. But because of that, the battle is playing out amid persistent worries that the campaign could intensify the sectarian tensions that are tearing the country apart.
The Sunni extremist fighters for the Islamic State have warned civilians that the Shiite militias would slaughter them in revenge attacks whenever possible. The news media in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf countries have framed the battle in crass sectarian terms, warning that Iran’s militias were intent on killing Sunnis.
But for the most part, civilians who have fled the areas around Falluja have said they had tired of the grim life under the Islamic State and had been treated well by the militias and Iraqi soldiers.
“We were surprised that they treated us so well,” said a man at a camp who was in his 50s and gave his name as Abu Muhammad, standing on Sunday outside his tent. “Daesh had told us the Shiites wanted revenge and would kill us.”
Instead, he said, he was given cookies and orange juice.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/07/world/middleeast/iraqis-who-flee-falluja-find-hardship-and-hunger.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
Most of the problems affecting the refugees seem to be down to a lack of care and resources - perhaps the people so responsible for this problem could contribute to its resolution. Tony Blair (£27M) and Dick Cheney($30M-$100M) come to mind. Either that or they should STFU.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/08/tony-blair-accuses-jeremy-corbyn-of-standing-by-as-syria-is-bombed

[bth]

Bill it is false statement that the US is supporting ISIS. Why do you persist with that theme? Admittedly US approach to IS hasn't always been effective but it is getting better gradually.

There are literally thousands of Americans fighting IS in at least three countries.

The best current book I've found on ISIS is "A History of ISIS" by Fawaz A. Gerges which was just published 2016

[bth]

Barish, I never said I agreed with the "Assad must go" stipulation. It was laid out in diplomatic discussions. I said it exists. Turks and Saudis and some Europeans have been adamant about it. Short of astonishing battlefield victories by the Syrian government, these other players will have a veto on certain outcomes.

[bth]

Babak Makkinejad, As was discussed earlier in the week, there would be three milestones required to maintain Syria as a unified territory - defeat of JAN, defeat of ISIS, and a negotiated arrangement with the Kurds and remaining Sunni Arab groups and the regime compromise sufficiently to suite Syria's neighbors to allow a peace and common government for at least a few years. Those three requirements had probabilities that increase with 'the all in' Russian involvement later this summer and drop to near impossible without it. This is because the Syrian army has proven unable to make and hold great territory and the Syrian government is effectively bankrupt.

I would like to say that Kerry and Lavrov have worked out some master deal to ease off tensions in eastern Europe and collaborate as western civilization in the destruction of IS and al-Qaeda. This is probably necessary. But with each passing day, the odds of a positive outcome to such diplomatic efforts fade. If it isn't accomplished in the next few months, it will not happen until at least a year into the next US administration. I do not now see the political will necessary to compromise/collaborate between Russia and NATO for the common good even if Kerry/Lavrov have the outline of a path. That is my opinion. I was much more optimistic in April.

[bth]

Your point about terrain along the river bottom SW of Lake Assad is well taken. But I counted only 6 bridges for many miles and only one paved one I could see (M4?). Anyway Col. Lang suggested that instead of destruction of the bridges from the air as I had proposed that disruption supply routes might also be accomplished in that zone with firebases and buried mines. This seems like a better I to me though it should be noted IS will destroy bridges when they lose their usefulness in any event.

I've just been watching trucking routes for awhile now on the theory that IS needs to trade heavy commodities like diesel and agricultural products for cash and those trucks require bridges to get to Turkey, JAN type rebels or even the Syrian regime. Advances last week by Kurds/US on the northern side of Lake Assad mean that this southern route is key for IS to link to Turkey. It is a landmark they will have to fight for if those bridges are made impassable.

[bth]

There is no force structure of men or machines or political will in the US or NATO to attack Russia and hasn't been for at least a decade or more. It is whipped up hysteria. Substantial, even overwhelming, common interest between Russia and US/NATO in the ME are overshadowed by posturing and adventurism in eastern Europe from all main parties. Diplomats can only do so much in this political environment.

[Audrieau]

Like your general prognosis, but why should Assad step down? He has a very high popularity rating with Syrians. Surely it is their call who governs them.

[FB Ali]

An excellent analysis of the situation in the ME, and the US involvement in it, is provided by Amb Chas Freeman at:

http://tinyurl.com/gtz82su

[Barish]

You are certainly not wrong about "astonishing battlefield victories" being a key argument to, eventually, more or less gracefully drop that demand.

These developments here towards Tabqa:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/airstrikes-pound-isis-tabqa-airbase-ahead-planned-syrian-army-offensive/

as well as, at the same time, further progress towards a link with Deir ez-Zor:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-enters-oil-rich-region-east-homs/

may just build up toward such victories in the field. One favorite argument among MSM-pundits is that Assad "only controls 30% of the country's territory". Meaningless upon closer scrutiny as that line may be, once the routes in the eastern Syrian desert are secured and thus, effectively, government control restored there, that argument will be disproven.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Thank you for your comments.

I believe only war and guns will decide the fate of Syria and those would be those of SAR, Iran, Russia.

I think the United States and EU are Johnny-come-latelies - for an entire year they were playing the phony war against ISIS - and their participation is not going to be decisive in determining the fate of Syria.

That is the issue, isn't it, "the absence of political will in DC" to end the War of Containment of Iran and the Struggle to Contain Russia?

You cannot protect people from the negative consequences of their own actions