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29 June 2016

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Dubhaltach

First let us mourn the victims of this massacre. Having done that let's bear in mind Hosea 8:7 which does seem to apply.

Funding and supporting people like these as the Turkish government is now finding out is a bit like paying Danegeld. You don't get to stop or the Dane gets angry and takes it anyway using as much violence as needed to make the point that there ain't no such thing as one off payments of Danegeld.

Or to put it in words a Viking might use:

Man kan ikke forvente et let liv, hvis man holder op med at betale danegæld. Det irriterer danskerne, der tager penge alligevel, og du får nogle flere blå mærker som en bonus.

(One may not expect an easy life if one stops paying Danegeld. It irritates the Danes, who take the money anyway and you get a few more bruises as a bonus.)

Tyler

At least with Brexit the UK won't have to worry so much about visa free travel from Turkey.

Barish

Apt comparison, by the looks of things.

Also noteworthy that, apparently, Tayyip and Putin came to a number of understandings during their phone-call today:

http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2016/06/29/erdogan-putin-agree-to-meet-in-person-in-first-phone-call-after-jet-crisis

Wouldn't be surprised that part of those understandings, indirectly mentioned here:

""As major regional powers, Russia and Turkey have a lot to do," Putin reportedly said. The Russian president also fully agreed with Erdoğan's statement on counter-terrorism following Tuesday night's terror attack in Istanbul, presidential sources stated.

President Erdoğan told Putin that, "We intend to take important steps at the bilateral and regional levels. We will further strengthen our cooperation with Russia," reported presidential sources. The Turkish president reportedly said it was "important that we listened to the demands of our peoples.""

include Tayyip making good on stopping support for the proxy-war in Syria. Otherwise, Putin wouldn't have lifted the restrictions on travel for Russians to Turkey.

Rapprochement between Tayyip and Putin being in the cards would add another motive for ISIL, and other jihadis (let's not forget that Nusra, too, carried out bombings in the Hatay province as early as 2013) to bite the hand that fed them. ISIL itself even got a full-blown Turkish magazine, Konstantiniyye, where they rant against the "idolator" Turkish army, among other things.

David Lentini

Prayers said. But given the tenor of our times, let's also keep in mind that appearances can be deceiving. The violence may not be from one's clients but from one's "friends". Some alliances turn one into a hostage.

Kunuri

Albayim, there is no locale as Istanbul Airport, it is Ataturk Airport, or Atatürk Havalimanı in Turkish, as there is a conscious revisionist attempt in Turkey to erase Ataturk's name and legacy from all public life and memory. AKP minions intentionally exclude his name from all public speech, as one AKP MP has done on state TV last night, much to my rage. In fact, they detest his name so much, that a rhetorical pillar behind building a new, mega airport in Istanbul now is that they can't stand the name. I am hoping the misnomer is unintentional on your part.

Matthew

Tyler: And the FTSE already recovered much of the ground lost due to the media/EU induced panic.

The biggest irony about Brexit is that outsiders claim that the English will be devastated if the Scottish leave and Northern Ireland reunites with the South.

That is actually the dream of the English taxpayer.

Thomas

The whole book of Hosea is apt for our times.

Thomas

This crisis gives Recep the opportunity to turn his friend into an enemy and allow the elimination to proceed.

David Habakkuk

Dubhaltach,

And Kipling made the same point, in his poem ‘Dane-Geld’ published in 1911.

It concluded with a recommendation on ‘better policy’:

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!"

(See http://www.kiplingsociety.co.uk/poems_danegeld.htm .)

As Hosea 8:7 – thanks to IZ for the reference – I do not think the Turks are the only ones who are in the process of doing that.

Daniel Nicolas

The report a few days ago was the Erdogan apologized to Putin for downing the jet.

http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/turkey/1.727402

In a statement, the Kremlin said Putin had received a letter from Erdogan "in which the Turkish leader expressed his desire to resolve the situation connected to the downing of a Russian military aircraft." 

"The letter states, in particular, that Russia is a friend to Turkey and a strategic partner, with which the Turkish authorities would not wish to spoil relations," the Kremlin statement said. 
It cited Erdogan as saying in the letter: "I want to once again express my sympathy and deep condolences to the family of the Russian pilot who died and I say: 'I'm sorry.'" 
Turkey later confirmed the Kremlin's statement.

Ishmael Zechariah

Barish,
Can you please verify what Putin "said" from Russian sources? I would only trust a transcript released by Lavrov's office. The "yandash" press here are trying all they can to spin this into a major policy win by tayyip.
Ishmael Zechariah

Ishmael Zechariah

Kunuri,
They can try to erase Ataturk, but will not succeed. We are still 50%+! The place is sinking deeper and deeper into an economic mess. Even though tayyip licked up his spittle and apologized to Russia, hoping to get a lifeline, he has now angered others. A classic fork in chess. tayyip only gets to decide what to lose. he will lose.
I am glad to hear that you are safe.
Ishmael Zechariah

Istanbul Guy

And wasn't it only last year when the government was perfectly content with letting ISIS meet for picnics in Istanbul?

...

Dubhaltach

In reply to Thomas 29 June 2016 at 02:12 PM

No argument from me on that.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

The tragedies pile up. The chaos that has spread from Pakistan to Nigeria and into the Balkans has now engulfed Turkey.

"When a man knows he is to be hanged...it concentrates his mind wonderfully." The support of the Daesh has blown back on Recep Tayyip Erdogen and the Turkish Islamists. The chaos in Syria has emboldened the Kurds. The integrity of Turkey is threatened. A civil war among the Islamists is eminent. Rapprochement with the Russian Federation and closing the Syria border is the only way the Turkish government can survive for a while longer.

The world is at war.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176158/

The “best of all worlds” propaganda has failed. With the British exit, the European Union’s collapse is underway. The contradictions within the US foreign policy are insane. America is supplying factions in the Syrian Civil War who are fighting each other. The New Syrian Army is such a fiasco it appears to be a scheme to supply the latest military technology to the Islamic State. The rise of the Daesh is direct result of the 25-year American war in Iraq and the House of Saud’s corruption of American politicians.

The United States has to reform. Neo-liberal capitalism breeds revolts and endless wars that cannot be won by a volunteer/contractor Army. If the rule of law does not apply to all, the chaos will swamp the USA.

William R. Cumming

The costs of lack security at the world's airports continue to climb. Friends and family do NOT need to see their loved one's arrive and take off. No one uncleared should be in any air terminal.

And for almost 5 years on this blog I suggested the Turkish border and the failure of the Turks to secure it was a major security problem for the Turks and others. Perhaps
fences do help make good neighbors.

And I have long been critical of the U.S. for not securing the border of Iraq and Syria. One thing Trump has right is that borders are key to the maintenance of nation states even if bytes and bits can fly around.

We know WJC lacked vision. So does HRC. So does Trump IMO because a truly sealed border will prompt a revolution in Mexico IMO!

And the talking heads babble on largely without thought.

ToivoS

Over the past few decades I was able to understand the actions of nation states with the simple filter*: What is their national interests? Often this failed in some ways. However, with Turkey over the past three years this filter has failed completely. What were they doing and why?

Maybe, just maybe, they are coming back to their senses. Those recent overtures between Moscow and Ankara is a good sign that they have. This latest airport attack might just convince them that maybe it is time to stop supporting ISIS and Al qaida in Syria. The Russians after all have a pretty good track record defeating Islamist terrorists inside her borders.

*The US excluded from this rule. We are so absurdly wealthy we can afford to make one losing investment after another. Israel anyone?

Tony

Can Erdoğan use this incident to strengthen his position even further? Just asking.

Charles Michael

Scots referundum is out, so said Spain and France and even before Italy could voice its opposition. Same fot Catalogna, Corsica and Norte Alianza and Northen ireland.
All those post Brexit alarmist, revote, punish, are the sure sign of panick and ... stupidity.

Eu is going, going, gone and I ,as a French, am pretty pleased of that. Albeit I can cry that my coubtry was not the first to raise the flag of independance.

Tyler

Matthew,

Yes, I saw that. All that doom and gloom predicted by the (((globalists))) turned out to be nothing. Much like the predictions of how unfettered immigration is an unalloyed good.

Amir

A varient on Iranian proverb, as previously mentioned and freely translated as "when one plays with the scorpion, one should not complain when one gets stung".

Barish

You are not wrong to be suspicious of the spin. While somewhat less euphoric, official English Kremlin release of the phone call does read similarly:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52295

E.g.:

"Mr Putin said that he would instruct the Russian Government to begin negotiations with the relevant Turkish agencies to restore mutually advantageous bilateral cooperation in trade, the economy and other sectors. Mr Putin also said during the conversation that Russia could lift the restrictions on Russian tourists visiting Turkey but also noted that it would be good if the Turkish government took extra measures to ensure Russian citizens’ safety on Turkish soil.

The two presidents agreed that the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers would meet on July 1 at the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation’s foreign ministers meeting in Sochi. The discussion would cover both the regional situation, particularly efforts to settle the Syrian conflict, and current matters of further developing Russian-Turkish relations.

[...]

Overall, the conversation was business-like, constructive, and focused on restoring the traditionally friendly nature of the two countries’ broad-ranging bilateral relations."

Walked by the Parliamentary Assembly of the BSEC at Dolmabahçe Sarayı past Saturday, come to think of it.

Babak Makkinejad

But you must admit that what you are suggesting is akin to a cure for a self-induced illness.

Babak Makkinejad

They were made promises by their erstwhile allies including - almost certainly - the prospect of quick victory in Syria. They were fools - in my opinion.

Agree that they are course correcting; how far? We shall wait and see.

Amir

Scotland actually puts more into the Crown than it receives, not even including the illegal adjustment of the North Sea boundaries between England and Scotland that transferred Scotisch oil wells/wealth to England.

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