"The Greatest Battle" Hassan Nasrallah

" Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah, is sending more fighters to Syria's Aleppo province, which he says has become "the greatest battle" in Syria's six-year civil war.  "Thousands of Sunni militant foes have recently entered Syria via the Turkish border with the aim of taking over Aleppo and its surrounding countryside, according to Nasrallah.

""We are facing a new wave...of projects of war against Syria which are being waged in northern Syria, particularly in the Aleppo region," Nasrallah said in a speech broadcast live on the group's Al Manar TV. "It was necessary for us to be in Aleppo ... and we will stay in Aleppo."

"The defense of Aleppo is the defense of the rest of Syria; it is the defense of Damascus. It is also the defense of Lebanon, and of Iraq," he said."   Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah.

http://www.dw.com/en/hezbollah-sends-reinforcements-to-greatest-fight-over-aleppo/a-19356004

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"The Syrian Armed Forces began their long-awaited northern Aleppo offensive last night after spending several weeks in a stagnate position near the volatile Handarat front. Led by the Syrian Arab Army’s “Tiger Forces” and their prominent leader Colonel Suheil Al-Hassan, the Syrian Armed Forces launched their assault from several axes in northern Aleppo, striking the jihadist rebels at the Al-Zahra, Al-Khalidiyah, Bani Zayd, and Al-Layramoun districts inside the provincial capital. According to the preliminary reports from Aleppo City, the Syrian Armed Forces have captured the Aleppo Cotton Gin, Sarheel Factory, and several sites in the Al-Zahra District. In the coming hours, the Syrian Armed Forces are expected to intensify their assault, as the jihadist rebels scramble to repel this large-scale government offensive. The Tiger Forces are not conducting this offensive alone; instead, they are fighting alongside the 4th Mechanized Division, Liwaa AL-Quds (Palestinian paramilitary), and National Defense Forces (NDF)."  AMN

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-begin-long-awaited-northern-aleppo-offensive/ | Al-Masdar News

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One of our correspondents wrote asking for an examination of the current "volatile" situation in Syria.  He asked that we discuss this outside the context of the now obvious manpower shortage among the R+6 allied forces on the ground.  Well, pilgrims, that is not possible.  There is a general shortage of competent ground troops suitably equipped for mobile warfare against enemies who use humans in bomb laden trucks as the equivalents of air strikes and field artillery. 

This shortage exists not only among the R+6 but also among the SDF/YPG forces under US Green Beret mentorship in the attack on Manbij west of the Euphrates.

Nasrallah's willingness to commit yet more Hizbullah infantry and armor to what seems likely to be a climactic battle at Aleppo City is IMO indicative of his  understanding of the seriousness of the troop shortage situation.  Lebanon is a small country.  there are only so many Lebanese Shia.  He cannot afford to p--s them away in efforts that are peripheral to Shia interests in Lebanon .  He clearly does not think the battle for Aleppo is a peripheral effort.

At the same time Suheil the Tiger Forces commander is trying to close off rebel held portions of Aleppo City.  He is running a task force composed of  his own and many other government allied units.  He is aiming to sever all the LOCs running into the rebel held parts from the north.  This is a big task since he is subject to attack by all those US supported jihadis that the Turks brought into Syria through Hatay Province during the "ceasefire.".  They number something between 6 and 10 K and are heavily laden with US arms like the TOW missile.  Frankly, I doubt that Suheil has enough men and tanks in hand to accomplish the closure of the Aleppo pocket from the north.

IMO if the Russian and the Iranians do not want to see the Syrian government disintegrate under pressure they need to "up the ante" significantly in terms of their willingness to commit substantial numbers of their own ground forces to a campaign of anything up to six months for the purpose of destroying the jihadi enemy.  pl  

Comments

[LeaNder]

Babak, would you care to explain?

random pick of top news using Google News and Saudi Arabia + Bahrain and its respective selection selection routines or the results of the one pushed to the top:

June 20
http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2508090&Language=en
June 24
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/saudi-arabia-police-officer-shot-dead-shiite-city-684283

[LeaNder]

"anchored to the Russian Afghan 'gremlin'"

Interesting way to put it.

Yes, we live in odd time, and history always matters. love it.

[LeaNder]

One of your best contributions ever, Fred. Maybe I forget others by now.

The only emotion I seem to be able to understand is anger. ;)

[Babak Makkinejad]

No, it is the Knight of Palestine against the Shoah Cultists and their camp tramps.

[LeaNder]

"some territory north toward Turkey in a 6 month window"

only since we "met" recently, am I wrong?, and notice I did not proceed to your "wild guess". How could this be more then a fear-leverage-tool in the larger context?

also notice, I agreed with b=Bernhard here on SST once. Seems I rarely do. I seem to have agreed with him with skepticism on Russia sending more troops, men on the ground, which Pat always considered necessary.

[FkDahl]

What I've read is there is plenty of civilian traffic around, as well as a host of various units, and stand-off identification of a VBIED has proven very difficult.

[LeaNder]

I like amateurs since on central issues around here, I am.

[LeaNder]

"The other thing the RussiaGov or other Govs could do is to release all the emails in the most damaging way possible ..."

I largely agree with your take, but this part feels a bit like wishful thinking. If there is anything incriminating in these emails, why wouldn't they want to keep it to be used in some type of leverage scenario later?

[turcopolier]

fkdahl

The critical point comes when the vehicle emerges from the traffic (if there is any in the battle zone) and charges right at you at high speed. pl

[LeaNder]

"What utterly baffles me"

is there an expert army information system alerting to any movement of trucks or other possible means that does not quite belong into the larger scenario?

[Brunswick]

Trey N,

If you go to the Oryx Blog, or twitter feed, you will see lots of photo's of ISIS VBIED's.

They range from pickup trucks with "hillbilly" armour, to Humvee's with plows and additional plate armour on the front, to BPM-1 APCs, to large Earthmovers.

Sandstorms, blown dust on the battle field, are often used to facillitate a ISIS VBIED attack, and there is ususally a small
Infantry team, often in other vehicles, who's job is to clear a path for the VBIED to target.

You Tube has lot's of vid's up showing not only the tactics of the attack, but from the defenders side, the chaos created by the attack.

[turcopolier]

LeaNder

There is no such system. Perhaps the Swiss could invent one, or the Israelis. I am always amused by the way civilians expect there to be some whiz-bang solution to all military problems. In fact ground war is mainly a nasty, messy, primitive thing that is not amenable to high tech solutions.

[turcopolier]

Vic

"kill 'em all and let god sort'em out." Are you an air force guy? pl

[LeaNder]

How could I fit this answer into your long-term theoretical explanation pattern? The "shoa cultist", I prefer the less loaded expression destruction by the way, following Raul Hilberg, are after all a more recent phenomenon.

But once again somewhat unsatisfactory response for me. Not that I am easy to satisfy, admittedly.

[Exordium_Antipodean]

My understanding from reading a variety of articles was that support for the intervention was wide but not deep, unlike the extremely concerted support for the Kremlin's Ukraine policy. If this is true, should significant numbers of Russian servicemen return to Russia in bodybags, without demonstrable results (which cannot be guaranteed), the public could become unhappy. Anger at Turkey is one thing, scores of dead soldiers are quite another.

While I enjoy military LARPing as much as the next guy, the reality is Putin is a various cautious actor, and seems to always prefer to use minimum force as a very last resort.

Interventions often result in unforeseen complications. South Front warns that NATO would love to bog Russia down in Syria, and The Saker averes Russia does not have the resources to distribute widely indefinitely.

Now perhaps I'm wrong, but I think caution is uppermost in the minds of both the kremlin and the Russian public.

[turcopolier]

EA

I am not "the next guy" and in my opinion Putin has run out of options other than to reinforce if he does not want to be defeated in Syria. pl

[LeaNder]

correction: "are" ... phenomenon = phenomena

or alternatively, "is" a more recent phenomenon.

What was it about the rectification of terms? Or was it names? Words? Could this "misuse" be judged as somewhat clouded thinking?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rectification_of_names

[BraveNewWorld]

Does it have to be Russians? We know there are at least some groups out side of Russia whom the Russians use from time to time and some of them are in Syria now. Are there more of them the Russias could influence to come help?

[Chris Chuba]

"What utterly baffles me is how a suicide bomber driving an explosive-filled car or truck on a modern battlefield manages to survive for more than a few nanoseconds."-Trey
I have a bad habit of introducing too many topics in one post, South Front did an interesting study on suicide truck bombers
Suicide Bomber Tactics
https://southfront.org/suicide-bombers-contest-the-road-to-raqqa/
1. They use commonly available vehicles in populated areas.
2. They approach checkpoints in newly captured areas where command and control has not been fully established.
3. The trucks use metal plating in the front to protect against small arms fire.
4. They have multiple occupants to ensure bomb detonation in case the driver becomes incapacitated.

I wonder if enough of these trucks survive to find the VIN number since most of them are Honda or Toyota vehicles. I'd like to see if their purchase history could be tracked to see if they are being bought by Saudi Arabians or other Sunni states. If so then I'd like to see sanctions filed at the U.N. and hearings in our U.S. Congress (the same place that is hosting the Assad, the war criminal tour).

[BraveNewWorld]

Solomon had a post on the issues of trying to stop a VBIED over at SNAFU. You should give it and the comments a read.

https://snafu-solomon.blogspot.ca/2016/06/dealing-with-vehicle-borne-ied-from.html

[steve]

Because as president she would have the ability to assemble much of the power of the US government to disregard, ignore, and spin away whatever information is contained in those emails. As a candidate she doesn't quite have that ability yet.

[Babak Makkinejad]

He tried and failed to get a deal from NATO states; on Syria or on Ukraine.

But he owed it to the Russian people to try.

Now he will have to resume cooperation with the mercurial (in his view) Iranians.

[turcopolier]

EA

We do not do LARP here and if you think SST is a frivolity of that kind you do not belong here. pl

[LeaNder]

Associatively, Cris, What do we know about the larger context of "new" EU sanctions against Russia, and how did it come about?

http://europa.eu/newsroom/highlights/special-coverage/eu_sanctions_en

Maybe ideally about the central driving forces behind it? Am I somehow unaware of a specific trigger event?

Could it be, that it was Cameron or the GB parliament, GB as the central driving force? As Quartz seems to assume one day after Brexit.

http://qz.com/716635/brexit-russia-vladimir-putin/

[turcopolier]

BraveNewWorld

"Does it have to be the Russians?" yes it does. Have you not learned yet that armies are not created equal and that only part of the difference is about equipment. pl