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25 June 2016

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LeaNder

Babak, would you care to explain?

random pick of top news using Google News and Saudi Arabia + Bahrain and its respective selection selection routines or the results of the one pushed to the top:

June 20
http://www.kuna.net.kw/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=2508090&Language=en
June 24
http://www.ibtimes.co.in/saudi-arabia-police-officer-shot-dead-shiite-city-684283

LeaNder

"anchored to the Russian Afghan 'gremlin'"

Interesting way to put it.

Yes, we live in odd time, and history always matters. love it.

LeaNder

One of your best contributions ever, Fred. Maybe I forget others by now.

The only emotion I seem to be able to understand is anger. ;)

Babak Makkinejad

No, it is the Knight of Palestine against the Shoah Cultists and their camp tramps.

LeaNder

"some territory north toward Turkey in a 6 month window"

only since we "met" recently, am I wrong?, and notice I did not proceed to your "wild guess". How could this be more then a fear-leverage-tool in the larger context?

also notice, I agreed with b=Bernhard here on SST once. Seems I rarely do. I seem to have agreed with him with skepticism on Russia sending more troops, men on the ground, which Pat always considered necessary.

FkDahl

What I've read is there is plenty of civilian traffic around, as well as a host of various units, and stand-off identification of a VBIED has proven very difficult.

LeaNder

I like amateurs since on central issues around here, I am.

LeaNder

"The other thing the RussiaGov or other Govs could do is to release all the emails in the most damaging way possible ..."

I largely agree with your take, but this part feels a bit like wishful thinking. If there is anything incriminating in these emails, why wouldn't they want to keep it to be used in some type of leverage scenario later?

turcopolier

fkdahl

The critical point comes when the vehicle emerges from the traffic (if there is any in the battle zone) and charges right at you at high speed. pl

LeaNder

"What utterly baffles me"

is there an expert army information system alerting to any movement of trucks or other possible means that does not quite belong into the larger scenario?

Brunswick

Trey N,

If you go to the Oryx Blog, or twitter feed, you will see lots of photo's of ISIS VBIED's.

They range from pickup trucks with "hillbilly" armour, to Humvee's with plows and additional plate armour on the front, to BPM-1 APCs, to large Earthmovers.

Sandstorms, blown dust on the battle field, are often used to facillitate a ISIS VBIED attack, and there is ususally a small
Infantry team, often in other vehicles, who's job is to clear a path for the VBIED to target.

You Tube has lot's of vid's up showing not only the tactics of the attack, but from the defenders side, the chaos created by the attack.

turcopolier

LeaNder

There is no such system. Perhaps the Swiss could invent one, or the Israelis. I am always amused by the way civilians expect there to be some whiz-bang solution to all military problems. In fact ground war is mainly a nasty, messy, primitive thing that is not amenable to high tech solutions.

turcopolier

Vic

"kill 'em all and let god sort'em out." Are you an air force guy? pl

LeaNder

How could I fit this answer into your long-term theoretical explanation pattern? The "shoa cultist", I prefer the less loaded expression destruction by the way, following Raul Hilberg, are after all a more recent phenomenon.

But once again somewhat unsatisfactory response for me. Not that I am easy to satisfy, admittedly.

Exordium_Antipodean

My understanding from reading a variety of articles was that support for the intervention was wide but not deep, unlike the extremely concerted support for the Kremlin's Ukraine policy. If this is true, should significant numbers of Russian servicemen return to Russia in bodybags, without demonstrable results (which cannot be guaranteed), the public could become unhappy. Anger at Turkey is one thing, scores of dead soldiers are quite another.

While I enjoy military LARPing as much as the next guy, the reality is Putin is a various cautious actor, and seems to always prefer to use minimum force as a very last resort.

Interventions often result in unforeseen complications. South Front warns that NATO would love to bog Russia down in Syria, and The Saker averes Russia does not have the resources to distribute widely indefinitely.

Now perhaps I'm wrong, but I think caution is uppermost in the minds of both the kremlin and the Russian public.

turcopolier

EA

I am not "the next guy" and in my opinion Putin has run out of options other than to reinforce if he does not want to be defeated in Syria. pl

LeaNder

correction: "are" ... phenomenon = phenomena

or alternatively, "is" a more recent phenomenon.

What was it about the rectification of terms? Or was it names? Words? Could this "misuse" be judged as somewhat clouded thinking?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rectification_of_names

BraveNewWorld

Does it have to be Russians? We know there are at least some groups out side of Russia whom the Russians use from time to time and some of them are in Syria now. Are there more of them the Russias could influence to come help?

Chris Chuba

"What utterly baffles me is how a suicide bomber driving an explosive-filled car or truck on a modern battlefield manages to survive for more than a few nanoseconds."-Trey
I have a bad habit of introducing too many topics in one post, South Front did an interesting study on suicide truck bombers
Suicide Bomber Tactics
https://southfront.org/suicide-bombers-contest-the-road-to-raqqa/
1. They use commonly available vehicles in populated areas.
2. They approach checkpoints in newly captured areas where command and control has not been fully established.
3. The trucks use metal plating in the front to protect against small arms fire.
4. They have multiple occupants to ensure bomb detonation in case the driver becomes incapacitated.

I wonder if enough of these trucks survive to find the VIN number since most of them are Honda or Toyota vehicles. I'd like to see if their purchase history could be tracked to see if they are being bought by Saudi Arabians or other Sunni states. If so then I'd like to see sanctions filed at the U.N. and hearings in our U.S. Congress (the same place that is hosting the Assad, the war criminal tour).

BraveNewWorld

Solomon had a post on the issues of trying to stop a VBIED over at SNAFU. You should give it and the comments a read.

https://snafu-solomon.blogspot.ca/2016/06/dealing-with-vehicle-borne-ied-from.html

steve

Because as president she would have the ability to assemble much of the power of the US government to disregard, ignore, and spin away whatever information is contained in those emails. As a candidate she doesn't quite have that ability yet.

Babak Makkinejad

He tried and failed to get a deal from NATO states; on Syria or on Ukraine.

But he owed it to the Russian people to try.

Now he will have to resume cooperation with the mercurial (in his view) Iranians.

turcopolier

EA

We do not do LARP here and if you think SST is a frivolity of that kind you do not belong here. pl

LeaNder

Associatively, Cris, What do we know about the larger context of "new" EU sanctions against Russia, and how did it come about?

http://europa.eu/newsroom/highlights/special-coverage/eu_sanctions_en

Maybe ideally about the central driving forces behind it? Am I somehow unaware of a specific trigger event?

Could it be, that it was Cameron or the GB parliament, GB as the central driving force? As Quartz seems to assume one day after Brexit.

http://qz.com/716635/brexit-russia-vladimir-putin/

turcopolier

BraveNewWorld

"Does it have to be the Russians?" yes it does. Have you not learned yet that armies are not created equal and that only part of the difference is about equipment. pl

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