51 neocons at State want another Iraq

 "More than 50 State Department officials signed an internal memo protesting U.S. policy in Syria, calling for targeted U.S. military strikes against the regime of Bashar al-Assad and urging regime change as the only way to defeat ISIS.

The cable says that U.S. policy in the Middle East has been "overwhelmed" by the continuing violence in Syria. It calls for a "judicious use of stand-off and air weapons, which would undergird and drive a more focused and hard-nosed U.S.-led diplomatic process."

 

CNN reviewed a draft of the memo, which has since been classified. The Wall Street Journal first reported on the memo's existence"  CNN

 

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Well, well.  These people have no idea what they are talking about.

 

1.  These are mostly Foreign Service Officers, chosen for a career in diplomacy by a written examination and an interview process that insures mirror imaging in educational background (mostly Ivy, Stanford or the like) and ideological coherence as a group.   the selection process is also very heavily burdened by a search for "diversity."  This is the very center of the Poly Sci/ IR  crowd.  Career Foreign Service Officers usually have no military background.  Neither do they generally have an interest in learning anything about a profession that they regard as "fun for the feeble minded."  Their attitude about military officers is that if you were smart like us FSOs you would be one of us.  It is an awkward thing for them that career military officers who reach the field grade ranks are generally possessed of more advanced degrees than the FSOs.

 

2.  The fabulous 51 are frustrated IMO by the unwillingness of the Syrian government to roll over and die to clear the way for what they think would appear to replace it.  They imagine this would be a coalition of the existing government (minus Assad and his associates) and its forces plus the FSA plus all the AQ related jihadi groups (Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, etc.) and that this coalition would destroy IS in Syria and then create a multi-confessional representative democracy.

 

3.  IMO all of this is a delusion.  IMO what would occur is that the Syrian government would not survive decapitation and would collapse as did the Iraqi government after we defeated their forces in our invasion.  People forget now that the Iraqi government had completely collapsed BEFORE the neocon faction in the GW Bush administration decreed a total abolition of that government and army.  At the very time that Bremer surrendered the process of debaathification to Ahmad Chalabi (an Iranian agent), the US ground combat commanders in Iraq at division level were engaged in trying to re-constitute parts of the Iraqi forces, government and police to help them re-establish order.  In a dramatic meeting Bremer told these generals that they would immediately cease and desist because the "day of the Sunnis has ended."  This statement of course ignored the many, many Shia Arabs employed by the Iraqi government in responsible jobs but the statement ably supported the neocon policy of enabling anti-Sunni groups across the region, whether they were religiously opposed or merely deracinated in the acculturation process fostered by institutions like the American University in Cairo.

 

I suppose we will now see how Obama reacts to this memo.  pl 

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/16/politics/state-department-syria/

Comments

[b]

Obama will ignore those folks.

But Kerry endorsed them calling the memo "important". He might have had a hand in bringing it into the public. Looking at a VP position?

To me this looks like a preparation for a Clinton war on Syria.
- These folks want to be promoted in a Clinton administration.
- Clinton wants to bomb asap and needs the public support this paper may help build.

I am not so sure that the signers are pure neocons (Troskyist). Many are likely so called "humanitarian interventionists" (Wilsonians). But that does not matter much. The results of their endeavors are alike.

Their worki in Iraq, Libya and Yemen has been so successful that a repeat in Syria seems inevitable to them.

[jld]

Of course it's idiotic and it does not matter if and why they truly believe in the memo.
What matters (IMHO) is whom "sponsored" the memo and for wich purpose, these sponsors probably don't believe themselves a single word of it.

[JMH]

They give out awards for these cables. I think that's what's going on here. Although, it was painful to listen to mornin Joe shout down everyone at the table this morning who disagreed with the idea of going to war in Syria to create a safe area and corresponding no fly zone. Never mind that both Joe and the foolish 51 advocate a path that will bring us into military conflict with Russia in the skies over Syria, which would most likely escalate to nuclear war.

[FND]

These diplomats no longer have any loyalty or fear of the lame duck and are getting a jump on sucking up to the Hillary Presidency hoping for promotions.

[Ex-PFC Chuck]

Re: "This statement of course ignored the many, many Shia Arabs . . " Did y our mean Sunni Arabs in this context?

[Edward]

I have to wonder how much the purging of the so-called "Arabists" from the state department in the 1990's has to do with these anti-Syrian policies. These people don't seem too upset by the disasters in Iraq and Libya.

[Mongoose]

After perusing news reports of this latest development and anticipating that you would undoubtedly cut through the verbal thicket that passes for deep thinking in our foreign policy circles, I was immediately reminded of the weekly satirical German magazine "Simpliccisimus" sans the satire; or perhaps it would be more accurate to state that these FSO neocons are unintentionally satirical minus the satire. Heavy sigh. The Peter Principle in overdrive except that they've all risen far above their own personal levels of incompetence. Only a God or the Gods can save us now (parody, satire, sarcasm alert--take your choice).

[Edward]

Also, Saudi Arabia is apparently bribing people right and left in Washington. Is this letter a product of bribery?

[mbrenner]

Let's bear in mind 2 crucial facilitating factors. First, absentee management. Kerry is almost never in Washington and his senior deputies are not instructed to do it for him. This follows 4 years of Hillary's non-management and recruitment of unqualified incompetents.

Second, the gang of 50's underlying conception of the situation is no different from that of the White House and of Kerry. The total failure of the President to correct it has created circumstances in which the call for lunatic actions flows directly and logically from the shared premises. This is not the first time that Obama has trapped himself in this manner: e.g. Iran; Russia; the budget sequester; austerity economics; etc.

[Cameron Kelley]

I'm sure it's only a coincidence that this allegation that the Russians struck our 'moderate' rebels comes one day after the leaked memo.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-bombing-us-backed-rebels-in-syria-us-official/ar-AAhbPmn?ocid=sf

[Exordium_Kiwi]

Reminds me of the 150 foreign policy 'thinkers' who signed the anti-Trump memo, when most had been vociferous supporters of the Iraq War

[David Habakkuk]

‘Career Foreign Service Officers usually have no military background.’

How many of those dealing with the Middle East have a serious background as Arabists – knowledge of the language, history and civilisations of the Middle East, either acquired in the course of undergraduate or post-graduate study, or by ‘regional studies’ training in the Foreign Service? (And/or relevant education/experience relevant to an understanding of Iran?)

How many of them have lived in the countries about which they write memoranda for any length of time?

[DC]

Hillary Clinton will appoint and hire more of these bozos at State, and throughout the federal government. The downward spiral continues; I must not be jaded yet, as I am saddened by it.

[SmoothieX12]

> Neither do they generally have an interest in learning anything about a profession that they regard as "fun for the feeble minded."

Boy, I wish those "elite" people would take an exam on Operations' Research or on physics behind, say, global positioning and its combat applications. But then again, even basic radar equations may get them into stupor;-) Forget about Fourier Transforms which are in the foundation of signal processing.

[Imagine]

Press releases are not done by accident. This smells like an inciting incident. The facts that allegedly "50 people signed" but we don't know their names, and also "the document is kept secret", point to a propaganda op by a disgruntled faction.

Hopefully it is obvious that Iran and Syria have a mutual defense pact, and starting a war on Syria would trigger Iran's involvement, which would then three moves later finally give excuse to have the treasured war on Iran that the Zionists so desperately want. If Russia gets involved, this could be a two-fer.

Back in reality-land, the facts that Syria, Iran, and Russia are making headway against ISIS has nothing to do with the cover story.

I am really, really tired of ZOGs initiating actions for the greater glory of Likud that are against the interests of the people of the United States of America.

[turcopolier]

David Habakkuk

In the bad old days of the "Arabists," the long gone Arabia Hands at least knew a lot about the land and the people. It seems to me that ideological purity and having the right "identity" counts more now. they think they are making a new world. Why know the old one? pl

[turcopolier]

Edward

IMO the bribery is above the level of these people. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think the idea here was to try to intimidate and frighten Russia - something like Nixon: "Henry, I want those Russians to think that there is a madman in the White House with his fingers on the button..."

Essentially, they are trying to frighten Russia to forfeit her equities in the Levant; completely dismissing the strategic threat that ISIS, Al Nusra and others of that kind pose to the Russian Federation - both domestically and in her near-abroad.

This reminds me of many times that I read in the Persian language papers, back in 2003-2006 period, some Iranian negotiator stating that Europeans are trying to frighten us so that we would commit suicide.

At the end of every day, these signatories will go to their suburbs, never expecting to experience anything like Bataclan, or Orlando, or Belsen - that would always be other people's problem to be watched during Evening News.

[turcopolier]

b

Do not most actual neocons have Trot ancestry either personally or spiritually? pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

In your estimation, will UK break rank with US on Syria? Any chance of that?

[Keith Harbaugh]

You wrote:

At the very time that Bremer surrendered the process of debaathification to Ahmad Chalabi (an Iranian agent), the US ground combat commanders in Iraq at division level were engaged in trying to re-constitute parts of the Iraqi forces, government and police to help them re-establish order.
In a dramatic meeting Bremer told these generals that they would immediately cease and desist because the "day of the Sunnis has ended."

Interesting.
Do you have a reference for that (not the Chalabi part, that is well-known, but the internals of the Coalition Provisional Authority),
or is that inside information?

[Abu Sinan]

We had a meeting yesterday with the Yemen desk at the state department. In the meeting it seems they are well aware of what is going on, but there is such a large disconnect between the facts and the nonsense that Kerry continues to spew, that one wonders if they really do have a clue or do our leaders just disregard everything that is passed onto them in favour of political expediency?

[SmoothieX12]

>Their worki in Iraq, Libya and Yemen has been so successful that a repeat in Syria seems inevitable to them.

That is what makes these "elites" dangerous--a complete lack of understanding of application of the military force. Now, take peer-to-peer framework and that becomes completely beyond their grasp. They don't read this blog or, at the very least, Douglas Macgregor. They literally, if left to own devices, can stumble into hot WW III, not because they are aggressive (which they are), but because their aggression is a direct result of their utter incompetence. In the end, Russia is somewhat, slightly more developed than Iraq, "produces nothing"(c) and will be an easy walkover. "Ike, where are you when we need you"(c) From Beavis and Butthead Do America.

[turcopolier]

Keith Harbaugh

My business partner at the time was present in the room when this happened. He was in Iraq doing a due diligence enquiry for our business. He is a graduate of USMA and had been a major in the US Army. pl

[SmoothieX12]

>these sponsors probably don't believe themselves a single word of it.

It is certainly possible, but it looks more and more that the only explanation which could be given to this whole unmitigated disaster that US foreign policy is--a sheer stupidity and ignorance of those who carry it out. I know, it is a frightening thought but the more I observe it, the more I have to arrive to this very unsettling conclusion. Add to this mix here an almost complete US ignorance on the issues of war and voila'.