« "The system is rigged." - TTG | Main | The Holy Sepulchre »

20 June 2016

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Matthew

Col: The full-court press to defend Al Nusra, et al, is on. See https://tcf.org/content/report/the-case-for-a-more-robust-intervention-in-syria/?platform=hootsuite

I particularly like the advice about weakening Syria's military, but then preserving Syria's governmental and military "structures." Nice nuance.

Basically, shorter article: We are humanitarian interventionalists. We are ready to fight to the very last Syrian to upset that Russian runt.

Exordium_Antipodean

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giPOGLacPZY

Good video covering the wikileaks that show (((Clinton))) as the instrument of Israeli regime change in the middle east.

toto

Counter-point:

"What Halevy was saying was that he didn't want the presence of the super powers in Syria to end with the defeat of ISIS. That would be for reasons obvious even to an idiot given Israel's famous and famously justified concerns about Islamic State (ISIS). "

http://pundita.blogspot.com/2016/06/hello-al-masdar-news-thats-not-what.html

Ishmael Zechariah

Brings to mind John 8.32, KJV. I wonder what Putin has told Mileikowsky during the latter's many trips to Moscow.
Ishmael Zechariah

David Habakkuk

All,

The issues which were debated at the time of the Balfour Declaration come back.

Opposition to it in Cabinet was led by its sole Jewish member, Edwin Montagu. The document in which he set out the grounds for his opposition was entitled ‘Memorandum of Edwin Montagu on the Anti-Semitism of the Present (British) Government.’

(See http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/History/Montagumemo.html .)

His view was that the idea of Jews as a ‘nation’, with a ‘homeland’ must necessarily call into question their loyalty to the countries in which they lived.

By contrast, his cousin, Herbert Samuel, was a committed Zionist, who would be the first High Commissioner under the League of Nations Mandate.

The context of the underlying argument about the long-term sustainability of ‘dual loyalty’ was, of course, changed out of all recognition by the Holocaust. But the underlying fact of the matter has always been that Samuel’s position could be sustained if, and only if, it was perceived that the interests of Jews in Israel and that of the British people were compatible.

To hark back to an earlier thread, as Lord Palmerston noted, it is inherently questionable whether, as circumstances changes, it will continue to be the case that the interests of very different nations in different parts of the world are compatible.

So there has always been a lurking ‘time bomb’ relating to ‘dual loyalty’.

This has now been activated by events in Syria.

Actually, I have some sympathy for the views of Israelis who see the steadily improving range and accuracy of missiles available to Hizbullah as an ‘existential threat’.

However, they are patently not an ‘existential threat’ to us in Britain. In my view, the ‘Islamic State’ clearly is. In this context, to suggest that I or people like me see members of the ‘Israeli Lobby’ here as fully British would be simply silly.

Situations like this have an element of tragedy about them. The case of German-Americans, in the wake of the entry of the United States in the First World War, may be another case in point. But to attempt to deal with them by pretending the underlying conflicts do not exist does not help.

Bill Herschel

HERZLIYA, Israel — Speaking on Tuesday at the annual Herzliya Conference, Halevy said: “The chances of a reunified Syria are very slim.”...According to the Israeli head of military intelligence, Syria as a state no longer exists...“So if we talk about what will happen in Syria in 15-20 years, we’re talking about millions outside the educational system. ... They are growing up in an atmosphere of ignorance and hatred.”...Halevy did not offer Israel’s preferred outcome to the war raging beyond its northern border. However, he presented a scenario that Israel would find unacceptable. “The question is not how we would like this story to end, but how would we not like it to end," he said. “Let’s say Da’esh has been contained. The superpowers have left the area, and we are stuck here with the Iranian axis with caches of advanced weaponry.” To avoid such an outcome, he said Israel would have to act “through coordination with the superpowers and through other means as well.”

The playbook is being written in Israel. Continuous war or victory for Da'esh and the disappearance of Syria as a sovereign state are the only permissible outcomes for United States foreign policy. Clinton understands this. The Republican Party understands this. It is only Donald Trump who seems a bit unclear on it. Assad must go? No, Syria must go.

Castellio

It is honest, it is true, and it determines US policy in the region.

Has this comment been reported in any MSM?

kooshy

Colonel Lang
From what I have learned in my time on geostrategy and geopolitics of Iran, the Israeli State in its current form is a barrier and a balancing force for Iran’s regional balance of power with regard to Arab States, even Cyrus the great knew that, the only difference is, that ever since the 1400 years ago unlike the sunni state of Turkey, or without the direct backing of US at the time of Shah, Iran cannot openly recognize Israel. That is the reason Iran tolerates the Israelis, even when they become crazy and kill a few scientists. As seen since the Arab springs, Arabs are more dangerous to Iran and her allies then Israel.

Castellio

Keep telling yourself that.

SmoothieX12

My "reading" of what could conceivably be misrepresentation of words (and intent) of Israeli high ranking official is that he was more calling for "Superpowers" to stay AFTER the defeat of ISIS. I doubt, but of course I could be entirely wrong, that anyone would want to openly state that ISIS should endure. Arab (and Israeli) media are notoriously unreliable, to put it mildly.

The Twisted Genius

Even if Halevy's words are misinterpreted, actions do speak louder than words. Israel has provided medical care to terrorists and sent them back into the fight. They have also sent weapons and ammunition their way.

aleksandar

Little of the topic, beg your pardon but worth to read

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/responsible-citizens-have-to-choose/article/2594325

ex-PFC Chuck

General Halevy's admission implies that the carnage of failing and failed states left in the wake of US/Israeli foreign policy is a feature, not a bug of said policy. Precisely what many Russia-sympathetic observers have been asserting all along, most recently a post a few days ago at The Saker. It's worth reading as an insight into their perspective on the events of the last couple of decades or so.

http://thesaker.is/grandmaster-putin-grandiose-multi-step-operation-lasting-16-years/

bth

I cannot find the original transcript. Further the videos on youtube from the conference do not have this one though there are numerous videos of the conference. Perhaps I am overlooking it. So if someone has it please post. Until we see the transcript or video I would urge a degree of caution

The Beaver

Since Wendy Sherman's visits to Tel Aviv , after every JCPOA meeting in Vienna or Geneva are well known, I guess that's why Anthony Blinken was invited at the Herzliya Conference.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

The world is between a rock and the hard place and no one, except here, is telling it like it really is. The American position is psychotic. America’s allies Turkey and the Gulf Monarchies are violently opposed to the current borders and the governments of Iraq and Syria which form a Shiite Crescent through the heart of the Middle East. Israel enables Islam’s tribal conflicts. All actively support the rebellion to carve out a Sunni enclave to sever the crescent. But, after a quarter century of war there are no secular or moderate Sunnis left; only the surviving Arab tribes. Even at the current glacial speed if the West somehow with Kurdish help defeats the Islamic State there is no alternative to replace it. Western troops would have to remain there forever just like in Afghanistan to maintain the colonies.

The only alternative to endless wars is forming an alliance with Russia and China. The peoples of the world would eliminate the violent Islamists just like antibodies engulf pathogens. Then the world’s sovereign states, working together, could establish just and secure borders and rebuild. Healing the Middle East.

The basic problem what is good for the citizens of the West is contrary to the money making schemes of the West’s corporatist governments which depend on the free movement of people and capitol plus skimming public money.

LeaNder

Maybe, you prefer this link, towards the end:
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/international/mideast-africa/2016/06/15/israel-syria-peace-diplomacy/85946010/

According to the Israeli head of military intelligence, Syria as a state no longer exists. ...

The military intelligence chief noted that Da’esh, the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group, has lost significant numbers of people and vast stretches of territory since US-led coalition operations began last year.

At the same time, due to Russian involvement, the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad has stabilized, along with the Shiite axis of Iran and Hezbollah. All the while, al-Qaida-linked groups such as the Nusra Front remain relevant.

Halevy did not offer Israel’s preferred outcome to the war raging beyond its northern border. However, he presented a scenario that Israel would find unacceptable.

“The question is not how we would like this story to end, but how would we not like it to end," he said. “Let’s say Da’esh has been contained. The superpowers have left the area, and we are stuck here with the Iranian axis with caches of advanced weaponry.”

To avoid such an outcome, he said Israel would have to act “through coordination with the superpowers and through other means as well.”

Halevy insisted that while the role of military intelligence is, in part, to try to forecast the future, the “fog of the present” must be penetrated first.

“The fog in the Middle East is very thick," he said. "One can define this region at this time as 'stable instability.' We have to get used to this fact."

Times of Israel reports under a chapter at the end:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/intelligence-chief-warns-of-growing-gaps-between-israel-neighbors/

Iran vs. the ‘pragmatic Sunnis’

On the other side, he said, are the “pragmatic Sunnis” — mostly the Gulf states — who are leading the fight against Iran.

Saudi Arabia today is “not the same Saudi Arabia we saw a year and a half ago,” Halevy said.

“Saudi Arabia is more proactive, trying to lead the Sunni camp in the Middle East. It’s a country that has perhaps stabilized and gotten stronger in its fight against Iran,” he said.

“Some of the interests of the pragmatic Sunni countries are getting closer to our interests,” Halevy said. “This is an interesting development, and there is an opportunity in it."

Kooshy

Castellio, If you really think Iranians are only an idealogical bunch, and not realist. and if you think they, don't understan and use balancing of powers, then I must say, you don't know Iran,Iranians and thier history well enough. Iran is in a tough neighborhood, to survive, they must know how to use and balance between forces.

LeaNder

09:30 Israel in a Turbulent Middle East: Strategic Review & Intelligence Assessment HERZLIYA ASSEMBLY Keynote Address: Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Chief of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate Introduced by: Col. (res.) Miki Altar, Director of External Relations, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), IDC Herzliya

*******
From the Agenda:
Israel’s National Security and Foreign Policy:
The Day after ISIS: Alternative Arrangements in Syria and
in Iraq – Global Simulation Results

Special Features
The IPS Simulation: The Day After the fall of ISIS in Syria and Iraq

*****
I hope, I closed the html tags in my last response. Didn't even check, fast copy and paste action

different clue

This would be an opportunity for the Trump team to highlight and spotlight any difference it has on "Syrian end-game policy" with the Clinton team. But that would require Trump himself to think with enough long-range focused discipline to get up to speed on how the situation evolved to become what it is . . . . and how several different "answers" would lead to several different "post-answer" outcomes.

Can he stay focused and disciplined long enough to decide for himself on how he chooses to understand the Syria situation? Can he then decide what he thinks the most desirable of any possible remaining "end-games" are most desirable to his way of thinking? If he can do that, he can then state the problem and the "best remaining" outcome very clearly, and try forcing Clinton into a corner where she either has to agree or disagree and say why. And if he feels that his desired outcome is less than the best for Israel, is he prepared to say that under a Trump Administration, Israel will just have to live with it? If he is prepared to say that, he can then force Clinton to either agree or disagree, and force her to say why.

Chris Chuba

The State Dept Dissent Letter
When I read the actual letter I was struck by how identical it was to our fabulously successful Libya strategy.
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/17/world/middleeast/document-state-dept-syria.html
1. The repeated reference to 'stand off weapons', just bomb the govt and let the Unicorns, I mean, moderate rebels will then fix things. No need for U.S. ground troops, a promise of a cheap victory that will bring stability.

2. Their complete and total lack of acknowledgment of the existence of Al Qaeda groups, Al Nusra and Army of Islam in the anti-Assad coalition. They just mention, Assad’s forces, ISIS, and the moderate rebels. In fact, the FSA are the junior partners to the Army of Islam. Benghazi here we come.

3. Their totally false narrative of the ceasefire to invoke the 'right to protect' cause of intervention. The cease fire always excluded Al Nusra and it should have excluded the Army of Islam who were the ones who persistently violated the ceasefire around Aleppo, not Assad’s forces. This is reminiscent to the Gaddafi viagra rape gang and pending massacre libel.

These guys didn’t even bother to come up with a plausible lie this time.

Erik

Chaos, disunity, and perpetual internecine conflict are of course what the Izzies want. They'll be too busy fighting amongst themselves to trouble Israel. This truth just can't be spoken about publicly even though everyone knows it, so it's a surprise to hear such frankness. Wonder if anyone in the public eye over there would be equally frank about what a charade the "peace process" is?

bth

Thanks. Good find. Must have been last Tuesday? If someone comes across the speech transcript, please post.

BraveNewWorld

Maybe this will help clear it up.

http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/May-it-never-end-The-uncomfortable-truth-about-the-war-in-Syria-419246

Castellio

You are suggesting that Iranians actually use Israel as a way to deter (or balance) Arab aggression. Really?

If I disagree you are going to have to do better than telling me how much I do or don't know Iranian people, history and realism: prove your point.

My understanding is that the Israelis and the radical Islamists (and Saudi Arabia) are coherent and together in their opposition to Iran. Isn't that the intent and thrust of the article and Halevy's comments?

So how, exactly, is Iran using Israel to balance the spiteful Arabs?

And for the record, how you utterly dismiss the lives of the assassinated Iranian scientists does not encourage respect for your interpretation of the current situation.

The comments to this entry are closed.

My Photo

February 2020

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
            1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Blog powered by Typepad