Is Angela Merkel going away?

I confess to finding German politics to be a little inscrutable these days.   US politics of course have a certain bizarre affect this year but Germans?  Upset enough to seriously roil the system?  Who knew that they were directly emotional about such matters?

Merkel's father took his family to live in the GDR, leaving the safety of West Germany?  Say what?  Were there many who did this kind of counter-intuitive flight to the Warsaw Pact countries?

Is it the case that the German electorate is going to dump Merkel in unhappiness over  her migrant policy and the bribe paid by the EU?

Perhaps some of our German committeemen will explain this to us?  pl  

http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2016/may/12/angela-merkel-suddenly-looking-politically-mortal

http://www.thelocal.de/20160510/major-political-parties-have-never-been-so-unpopular-poll

Comments

[Kutte]

Colonel,

My school in West-Berlin was located in the American sector, maybe 500 metres from the border of the Soviet sector. It practically consisted of 2 schools, one like any other school in the American sector, and one set up like a school in the Soviet sector, with Russian as first foreign language, and the beginning of the school year in September instead of March, but without the Marx BS. It was setup for people who had already fled to the West, or people who were living in hhe East, but wanted their children to get a Western-style upbringing. That way the pupils were not forced to start afresh with a new foreign language and didn't have to change class in the middle of the year. It had been chosen for it's closeness to the Soviet sector, so that pupils did not have to travel too far from the East. In the class of my now wife were 4 children of clergy-men, who were not allowed to attend high school. Mrs. Merkel miraculously was allowed to attend high school, to study and acquire a diploma and even a Ph.D. (Her dissertaion is unfortunately "lost without trace", which is regrettable, because in the East they usually contained hymnic praise of the party and would have made good reading). Quite a few privileges for the daughter of a clergy-man. I leave it to everybody to draw their own conclusions from these little bits of information.

[Barish]

There were very few, yet high-profile cases of some German individuals "going East" to the German Democratic Republic back in the day. Mostly intellectuals and artists, like Bertolt Brecht.

As for Merkel: She's been rather well-known to bend in lieu of the direction that the wind's - supposedly - blowing for a rather long while now. It's possible that the two intertwined issues you raised - trying to make altruism and philanthropy mandatory for society first before dropping that by way of handing out cash to a much-condemned and mocked persona like Tayyip - were two turns too many. Yet it remains to be seen how the etablissement is going to counter that. Media-PR wise the woman along with her government is very well set up, by and large.

[Fred]

My thoughts on the Telegraph:

Well that’s the first time I’ve seen Charlemagne and Hitler mentioned in the same sentence. If only the former had lived up to the 21st century standards of moral value, or if only his grandfather had been on the other side at Tours, the left would not have this dilemma.

“Most German families, including hers, number ex-refugees among them because of the defeat in 1945 and redrawing of eastern borders.” Of course the that makes all those "refugees" virtuous be extension (unlike the citizens of the UK, Germany or anywhere else that is disobedient to the narrative), especially now that Assad and Trump are both, well, not Charlemagne.

[Jack]

Sir

I don't follow German politics so can't really speak with any authority. But...it seems the practical consequences of rampant immigration from mostly Muslim countries in Africa, Middle East and Asia under the guise of political refugees is now causing a backlash. It's becoming apparent that many are being drawn by visions of a better economic status without having to assimilate or contribute much.

In this context of open borders, I was fascinated by this oped by the former Archbishop of Canterbury supporting Brexit.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3590851/Why-m-voting-Brexodus-revelatory-call-quit-EU-former-leader-Church-England.html

[YT]

Clergy?

A little bird told me that hausfrau merkel is of juden ancestry...

[Kutte]

YT,
Maybe it would be a good idea if the little bird revealed it's source.

[llegedly]

Interessting,
One must remember that it was Merkel's father decision... there were allegedly in East Germany some kind of opposition network in the protestant clergy.

But I never saw any information in depth on the Reverent Merkel, have you some sources on this topic ?

[Tyler]

Her Marxist upbringing can't be ignored, nor can the fact she's childless and menopausal. All factors in why she pushed so hard for this invasion.

[different clue]

YT,

Did the little bird explain how juden ancestry would affect or influence Merkel's ideas and policies about various things and stuff?

[Kutte]

Her father's name was Kasner. Merkel is the name she kept from her first marriage which ended in divorce. The Lutheran church at that time was still unified. He was assigned from Hamburg to East Germany by the church. Whilst that sort of thing happened, a lot of priests refused such an assignment, Mr. Kasner however accepted the call, apparently quite enthusiastically. He became known as "Red" Kasner and apparently showed great sympathy for the regime.

[Djuha]

Merkel's personal experience of being on the wrong side of the wall makes her sympathetic to the refugees' plight. And it was good politics at first, as European media attention to migrant privations crescendoed from the late summer of 2015 into the winter, culminating in Merkel's winning Person of the Year. That all changed on a dime after Paris & Cologne.

Merkel stuck to her guns, but while there is still a sizable body of support for her policy in Germany, there isn't in her center-right-to-right constituency. She's like Mitt Romney whose bold insurance reforms were once viewed as both compassionate & good politics but then the ground shifted and they became embarrassments & liabilities to the party.

Respectable & mainstream Germans like to believe that the War & its aftermath caused a clean break in German culture & politics, that they have irrevocably evolved to a higher, nicer form of politics characterized by tolerance, moderation, and Europeanism. Unfortunately, no matter how much they try to preserve the memories of 1918-1945 (and the Germans really have tried), the direct connection to the lessons of that time are inexorably fading and Germany is fast reverting to the centuries-long trend of being yet another European nation-state, able & increasingly willing to play power politics with the rest of the nation-states in pursuit of in-group interests.

[Dubhaltach]

What exactly is this obsession you have with Jews and or Khazars?

You drag it in at every possible opportunity including a really pathetic site which explained how the Khazars were secretly responsible for everything bad that ever happened.

Remember that?

And no I'm not a Jew or a Khazar.

[Dubhaltach]

Telegaph? That would be this article from September of last year? What's so hard about providing a link to an article you quote?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11842533/Germans-have-been-refugees-before-they-see-themselves-in-these-Syrians.html

It points out something very obvious that a people with very recent experience of being refugees are likely to have some empathy and sympathy for refugees.

Nothing in that article can even remotely be said to be arguing that all those refugees are virtuous "by extension" as you seem to be trying to claim. And in fact nobody with even the slightest knowledge of the Daily Telegraph's firmly anti-refugee editorial policy would make so ludicrous an assertion.

You appear to be projecting again. Better luck next time.

While we're at it which of the several narratives are you complaining about? Because the overwhelming narrative in the press both in Britain and Continental Europe is markedly anti-refugee.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to Tyler 15 May 2016 at 02:10 PM

She was brought up as a Lutheran in the household of a Lutheran pastor. She may have been educated as a Marxist but that's an entirely different kettle of fish as you are doubtless well aware.

"nor can the fact she's childless and menopausal"

Even by your low low standards that's a contemptible argument.

"All factors in why she pushed so hard for this invasion".

Suddenly Tyler can read minds wow just wow.

[William R. Cumming]

German politicians are carefully holding fire on many issues until June 27th and the outcome known in Great Britain. IMO of course.

Both HRC and the Donald need to agree or disagree with the BREXIT again in my opinion. Preferably before June 27th!

[Tyler]

Dubz,

Lel. Where to start?

Her "growing up in. Lutheran household" means nothing when compared against the damage she has done to the German state. Trying to handwave away how her childless nature affects her outlook(witness her giggles when she poses with all dem young "refugees") is typical for an SJW but doesn't change the facts.

"Wow just wow"

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=wow%20just%20wow

"Self-parodying phrase commonly uttered by intellectually sheltered political ideologues expressing visceral contempt for ideas they can't logically rebut."

NAILED IT.You're so damn basic you're a friggin meme!

[charly]

Why, they want to be president of the USA and not of the UK. They should say what is best for the US not Britain and best for the US is to not get involved (officially that is, unofficially the "CIA" should make dam sure England stays in the Union)

[Ulenspiegel]

" In the class of my now wife were 4 children of clergy-men, who were not allowed to attend high school. Mrs. Merkel miraculously was allowed to attend high school,"

This only means that her father was system conform, not more.

" to study and acquire a diploma and even a Ph.D. (Her dissertaion is unfortunately "lost without trace", which is regrettable, because in the East they usually contained hymnic praise of the party and would have made good reading)."

And? The thesis in the field of theoretical chemistry was very good according to people who have read it. Of course it would contain some but kissing in the "Vorwort", this was common.

Half of my family lived in the GDR, therefore, I do perfectly understand how some aspects worked especially when you wanted to study and came from the right or wrong family.

So what?

The thesis is on

[Ulenspiegel]

"A little bird told me that hausfrau merkel is of juden ancestry..."

Sie haben einen Vogel, das ist unübersehbar. :-)

[Ulenspiegel]

"Is it the case that the German electorate is going to dump Merkel in unhappiness over her migrant policy and the bribe paid by the EU?"

Dumping Merkel requires an alternative. Who?

The SPD with Sigmar Gabriel is a sitting duck and within the CDU no royal contenter is available. Seehofer is CSU and can, therefore, be ignored.

My bet: Merkel will get elected in 2017. The interesting question is the coalition. As the SPD will lose big, we will very likely see a coalition of CDU/SPD/FDP. The AfD will get around 20-25%.

The whole affair (great coalitions) are poison for the two larger parties as can be seen now in Austria.

[Tyler]

Dubz,

"The narrative is against refugees".

If I needed evidence you were high this is it. Last I checked the police were covering up refugee attacks and the media was aiding them by ignoring stories about their criminality.

Fred, you think we can trigger this guy back to his safe space?

[Fred]

Dubhaltach,

That's the article linked to above by Col. Lang. My comment is about the reporting, not the opinions of the people in Europe.

[Bandolero]

Turcopolier

Merkel's chair is safer than ever before.

The refugee wave has strengthened Merkels position in Germany, exactly because it has created a right wing opposition (AfD) to Merkel's CDU/CSU. It currently looks like the next parliament will become a 6 factions parliament, where only the CDU will be strcuturally able to form a government. See the polls here:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Let me explain: 6 factions (parties) are polled over the threshold to enter parliament. Clearly strongest faction is the CDU/CSU. The hardest hit is the main opposition of the social democrats (SPD), in the polls (20%) and in perspective - it's so damn bad that nobody in the SPD wants to apply for a 2017 chancellor run, because all know the SPD will lose badly. The problem for the SPD is that they have absolutely no perspective to form a government in the expected 6 party setup against the CDU/CSU. The SPD cannot build a government including the hard right AfD. That leaves only Greens (Grüne), free market liberals (FDP) and left socialists (LINKE) as possible partners for the FDP. But free market liberals (FDP) and left socialists (LINKE) exclude each other.

So the only way to form a government is Merkel's CDU. CDU/CSU can do with all except the left socialists (LINKE). Merkel will have two good and a not so good option to form a new government after 2017.

- 1. Keep with the SPD
- 2. Drop SPD, and form government with Greens and FDP, or one of them if numbers fit
- and the not so good option: 3. If AfD is very strong and others block, the conservative CDU/CSU could go with the rightwing AfD.

Another plus for Merkel in person: SPD and Greens will likely only want to form a government with the CDU/CSU if Merkel stays, because she is the garantee for that the CDU/CSU keeps the slightly lefty course the CDU/CSU has taken in recent months, for example with refugees. So, with the refugee wave Merkel literally destroyed any viable alternative to her rule for any time soon.

The short time problem will maybe just the other way round. If Merkel decides as a person that 12 years as chancellor are enough and she won't run again in 9/2016 she will be begged by all sides - including the opposition on the left - to not leave. There were reports after the election 2013 that she would find 12 years enough.

But strategically, the atlanticists position in Germany was weakened. What has changed is that there is now a right wing opposition to the CDU/CSU that is critical on Euro and relatively critical on NATO and quite friendly with Russia. That force (AfD) is a new development in Germany unseen before in Germany. And it may push the CDU/CSU in a similar nationalistic NATO-critical, Russia-friendly direction as AfD to be competitive. I cannot think that Merkel would have any qualms to push the CDU/CSU in such a direction if it fits her needs.

Everyone knowing Merkel confirms that it is not possible to imagine that Merkel just found a heart in herself as she took the refugee decisions she has taken. She's not that type of person - she is always coolly calculating. The long list of former bigwhigs that girl (Kohl) has coolly destroyed bears witness to that. Total coolness is how she became who she is. The only problem with the refugee wave is that her calculation may be quite complex so it's not so easy this time to figure it out.

In other EU countries there are similar older developments like Austria - FPÖ, France - Le Pen, Netherlands - Wilders, etc.

[Dubhaltach]

Well indeed where to start. Well let's start with how you falsely tried to claim that she was reared as a Marxist. You can't actually reply to your being called on that mendacious bullshit so you try to shift the argument to something completely different.

What evidence do you have to support your contention that her childless marital state is responsible for "the damage" that you claim "she has done to the German state."

Specify that damage, hard solid evidence, please not your usual fact-free blathering.

"Menopausal" - she's 61. Long past the age of menopause, do you have special knowledge acquired from her doctors that you're willing to produce here or is that just more of your trashy BS?

"her giggles when she poses with all dem young "refugees""

Evidence please - and this time keep the dialect dog whistling out of it. A video or a report from a reputable German source will do.

SJW - try to refrain from ad hominem. Try to produce some facts in support of your 'arguments' such as they are. Or don't you, me, and everyone reading this know you've got nothing.

[Dubhaltach]

Thank you. Succinctly put.