"Kerry said that without a ceasefire in Aleppo, Syria's largest city before the civil war erupted in 2011, the violence there was in danger of spiraling out of control. The plan now being worked on to ensure a more lasting ceasefire would try to separate rival forces from militias, which are not covered by the ceasefire.
"The line they are trying to draw now would prohibit any kind of incursion of Aleppo, it will not allow Aleppo to fall," Kerry said. He added that the truce was holding in areas of Damascus and Latakia region where he said there had been a "meaningful" drop in violence.
Kerry said the United States was trying to determine which opposition group was responsible for a rocket attack on a hospital in Aleppo on Tuesday, saying there was no justification for such "horrific violence."
He repeated the United States would never accept a transition that included Assad.
"If Assad's strategy is to somehow think he's going to just carve out Aleppo and carve out a section of the country, I got news for you and for him - this war doesn't end,"" Kerry said. NY Times
-----------------
Kerry was at the White House correspondents dinner and then went to the airport to leave for this meeting in Europe. Maybe he was suffering from sleep deprivation and jet lag at the presser. How else can you account for the idiocy of the statements repeated in this NY Times article? I have written here several times that to think one can gain at the negotiating table through BS and trickery what one has not been able to secure on the battlefield is a vapid, vain notion. I continue to think that true.
The US is threatening Assad, Russia and Iran with dire consequences if Assad does not agree to abandon Syria by 1 August? What possible leverage does Kerry think the US has with which to back up that threat? "Carpet bombing" of Syrian government facilities and forces? A massive Turkish Army invasion of the North of Syria? A Gulfie invasion of Southern Syria? Poisoned cigars as a present for Assad? More and heavier weapons delivered to the Unicorn army of the FSA? (an indirect delivery to the jihadis) A US expeditionary force?
No? What then? Ah! Perhaps Kerry will persuade his consort Teresa to embargo Syria. No more Ketchup for Assad! pl
Ishmael Zechariah, can you tell us what's up in Turkey these days, did the president Erdo pull a palace coup against the parliamentary system? Against his own party? Where is his suport, if not from his own majority party, to be able to do this.
Posted by: Kooshy | 05 May 2016 at 06:12 PM
It might also be that Kerry is articulating the aspirations of Saudi Arabia or Turkey with regard to Aleppo. Whether he means it or not could be anyone's guess. Kerry is not demented.
Posted by: bth | 05 May 2016 at 06:45 PM
Fred you are right but I think, (and I know the Dems better then I Know Reps politics) there are more street level angry Dems then are Reps, plus, motivationally it is harder to get the left liberal Dems to polls.
Posted by: kooshy | 05 May 2016 at 07:49 PM
I specifically mentioned that Babur was descendant of Chingez from mother's side. His paternal lineage was from Timur. Timur's claim to being Chingez's descendant is controversial(and probably made up), but Babur's chingezi descent from mother's side is beyond question.
His maternal grandfather Yonus Khan was great khan of "mughulistan" a Chughutai Khanete and there is no controversy i am aware of, about him being a descendant of Chingez.
By the way if you read Tuzk-e-Babri you will note that Babur wasn't too proud of his Chingezi heritage. It was mainly because of the betrayals he suffered during his struggle to control what he considered his rightful domains. There is a Persian couplet on the margins of the book, translated as follows
were the mughul race angels, they would be bad
written in gold, the name mughul would be bad
being a "mughul bacha" is a meme in urdu poetry which roughly translates to being a trouble child.
When Babar and his companions descended on sub continent and took over, that is when the locals gave them the tag of mughul (corruption of mongol) and it is not what they choose for themselves. The later Mughuls probably used it as an embellishment but that was not the case from beginning. From what i vaguely recall , when he was in exile in the lands of maternal grandfather the turkic term he used in Tuzk-e-Babri for his timuri party translates to "son in laws".
When i had my dna tested i was surprised to find related individuals from xinjiang, central asia and russia show up in my matches. When we got back my mother's results, her matches were choke full of such individuals.
Posted by: Farooq | 05 May 2016 at 08:04 PM
You have omitted the fact that West, A.K.A. NATO states, A.K.A. Western Diocletian states have been unable to articulate a credible positive view of the future to Muslims
For example: Mr. Obama's vision of his 2008 Cairo Speech has failed to materialize for the Arabs.
It reminds me of what this fellow wrote in Al Ahram Weekly during Bush II Presidency:
"US policy towards Iran is carrots & sticks, US policy towards Arabs is just sticks."
I recall one of the other commentators at that time - Leila Abu Sabah (dead of cancer) - took umbrage on that statement.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 05 May 2016 at 08:09 PM
IMO this was nice thing to do.
https://www.rt.com/news/341983-russia-gergiev-orchestra-palmyra/
Posted by: kooshy | 05 May 2016 at 08:29 PM
This article in the NYT about how foreign policy is being shaped 140 characters at a time is just extraordinary and worth a read in full.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelist-who-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html?_r=0
Posted by: bth | 05 May 2016 at 08:50 PM
Kooshy,
The AKP gang is now occupied by infighting. tayyip did execute a coup against the "duly elected" prime minister davutoglu who "resigned". See:
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opposition-leaders-call-resignation-decision-a-coup-.aspx?PageID=238&NID=98785&NewsCatID=338
This had been expected for a while. tayyip's goal is to take Turkey into a "presidential" system like the USA, where he will be the president, sultan and everything else. Useful idiots like democracy whores, liberal imbeciles, globalists, NGO functionaries, pseudo-intellectuals and other trash are now tring to explain their past support of tayyip-the-Muslim. An internal reckoning is going on within the office corps of the armed forces where gulen supporters are being neutralized. The economy is in trouble, with the Russian Embargo truly hurting quite a few sectors. tayyip might try to blame davutoglu for the Sukhoi incident, but this will probably not work with Putin. If it pans out, tayyip will get a boost from the removal of EU visa requirements for Turks; I think tayyip is useful for the ruling clique in EU and they are trying to keep him in power. A lot will depend on what will happen in Syria in the coming months. We are all watching Aleppo.
Ishmael Zechariah
Posted by: Ishmael Zechariah | 05 May 2016 at 10:50 PM
Sorry, I linked to the wrong article. Thank you for that through response.
Posted by: Max H | 06 May 2016 at 07:42 AM
David, I concur with you on Eric Zuesse, I think it was something he wrote re the Donbas war that made me suspect. So I use a large portion of salt when reading his writings, and warn people not to stand behind me.
Posted by: Tigermoth | 06 May 2016 at 09:29 AM
"a "presidential" system like the USA, where he will be the president, sultan and everything else."
It may work like that now, but I'm sure that wasn't the intention of the "Founding Fathers".
Posted by: Tigermoth | 06 May 2016 at 09:33 AM
Might this be if not Kerry's "Plan B", then that of his "allies", the GCC-club and Erdoğan? Let loose the dogs of war that is Nusra and company?
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-rebels-capture-khan-touman-tank-hill-southern-aleppo/
"Jihadist rebels capture Khan Touman, Al-Khalidiyah in southern Aleppo By Leith Fadel - 06/05/2016
The Jihadist rebels from Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham captured the strategic towns of Khan Touman and Al-Khalidiyah on Thursday night after a violent battle with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), Hezbollah, and Harakat Al-Nujaba (Iraqi paramilitary).
Initially, the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies were able to repel the Jihadist advances at Khan Touman and Al-Khalidiyah; however, they were unable to hold on for long after the Jabhat Al-Nusra and Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham overwhelmed them with sheer numbers.
In addition to capturing Khan Touman, the Jihadist rebels also seized Tank Hill, which is located directly east of these towns. According to a Syrian military source, the SAA lost a total of 17 soldiers during the battle while the total casualties from Hezbollah and Harakat Al-Nujaba are currently unknown.
The source added that 30+ Jihadists were killed, including the commander of Jund Al-Aqsa (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) “Abu ‘Aisha.” Fighting is still ongoing in southern Aleppo; however, the loss of Khan Touman is devastating for the government forces because of its proximity to the Aleppo-Damascus Highway (M-5 Highway)."
As I recall, the place was captured by SAA and allies in December last year, along with a good chunk of other places in the vicinity, so it's not impossible that this will be reversed.
Yet, add to that the noise made about a supposed "air-strike on a refugee-camp" - for reference, see here:
https://youtu.be/IvCLEEsPWy4
and the rage about the "hospital" in insurgent-held districts of Aleppo, and one is under the impression that renewed PR's supposed to lead into something bigger.
Posted by: Barish | 06 May 2016 at 09:40 AM
Babak M.,
You say that "we should expect the war for control of Syria to continue even after ISIS is destroyed by R+6 in the
next 4 or 5 years since the antagonism against Russia and Iran will continue to persist."
The phrase, "the war for control of Syria" is exactly right. This is about controlling Syria and which outside country is going to control it.
Sec. State Kerry just continues to give the game away, as the referenced NY Times article says--
"He repeated the United States would never accept a transition that included Assad. `If Assad's strategy is to somehow think he's going to just carve out Aleppo and carve out a section of the country, I got news for you and for him - this war doesn't end,' Kerry said."
Think about that brazen statement by Kerry. Those are the words of gangsters. The U.S. is going to decide what the government of another country is going to be and who is going to run it, and if they do not like it, the U.S. is going to continue to support a war there, and be sure that there is a war, until the other country capitulates.
Posted by: robt willmann | 06 May 2016 at 10:19 AM
Yes, thank you for your comments.
And from my perspective, there is no empathy in that position, nothing positive, nothing on which one can hang one's hope on.
Such statements only harden the other side - in this case the Shia, the Alawite, the Druze, the Christians of various stripes and the "Modern" Sunnis; all of them fearing for their lives, the honor of their womenfolk (at the hands of the jihadists) and their property.
For those groups that I enumerated above, the war in Syria will be truly existential.
Yesterday Ayatollah Khamenei publicly characterized US policy as being Anti-Islam, Anti-Shia, and Anti-Iran - in that order.
And his foreign policy advisor, Dr. Velayati, stated today that "Assad is our red line."
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 06 May 2016 at 11:00 AM
An excellent example is the capture of Khan Tuman today. al-Nusra is once again the spearhead of the rebels.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/jihadist-rebels-capture-khan-touman-tank-hill-southern-aleppo/
drone footage of the attack
https://www.youtube.com/embed/_5OY0M2PPiE
Posted by: Poul | 06 May 2016 at 01:32 PM
Well, IMO all sides involved in the Syrian crises, as well as informed news fallowers of the Syrian event like you and me already knew what mr Kerry said, for this group there was nothing new they didn't know on what he said yesterday after his negotiable with the Russian FM. I thought he saying this things out of anger, if he was saying this things to scare the suporters of Syrian goverment that was childish and undiplomatic act, if he was saying this things, to confirm his side' resolve and will to continue, to me that showed a sense of desperation, getting angry, for lack of options except for resorting to threats and bluffs, which IMO it's not a good tactic, the western side needs to realize this is not a poker game.
Posted by: Kooshy | 06 May 2016 at 03:31 PM
Thank you for your comment, I hope Turkey don't end up with another military coup, that will set her back in level of Egypt.
Posted by: Kooshy | 06 May 2016 at 04:35 PM
"EU is the hand-maiden of US, let us not kid ourselves here."
You confuse a few things: For the EU the whole package is improtant, therefore, we still support the USA in fields where the support is clearly agianst our interests, however, there are more and more frictions, see TPPI.
The other more disturbing aspect is that you do not want to understand that the basis of a sustainable strategy is an alignment of economic power with political/military goals; you want that the tail wacks the dog. :-)
Posted by: Ulenspiegel | 07 May 2016 at 02:18 AM
" an alignment of economic power with political/military goals; "
I understand that theory.
Tell me what EU is doing against Russia; at some point you guys must be ready to fight and die on the steppe; are you so prepared?
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 07 May 2016 at 10:00 AM
Exactly, but the EU is "encouraged":
"NATO won't surrender if Russia nukes Warsaw"
https://www.rt.com/usa/342178-russia-nuke-warsaw-clark/
Too many US top brass appear dangerously insane, or, is there a plan and method to this?
Posted by: jld | 07 May 2016 at 11:08 AM