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27 April 2016

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Kyle Pearson

>>>I'm not aware of Trump taking a strong and leading position AGAINST building a "wall", as Hillary did supporting TPP.

You mean the same TPP she did everything she could as Sec. of State to get passed?

Kyle Pearson

>>>I think he can pivot from building a wall to something else that will solve the same problem. If I was him, after securing the Republican nomination I would confer with some people then announce "I've decided that it is not the Mexicans that are the problem - but the people hiring them and exploiting them.

Yes. That is exactly what he will do.

The idea of a wall down there being a solution to anything is absurd.

Kyle Pearson

>>>Why on earth Cruz picked her with the California primary coming up is beyond me. She has to be one of the most despised women in the state.


Because Cruz is an ideologue who's cruised on his family's covert government connections. He's got a very tenuous and weak grasp on how the world actually works, and nary a clue about how any person is actually useful or valuable in this world.

Matthew

Robert C: That will change when the labor market changes. My high school janitor was white man. So were others. There is no "work white people won't do." It will just cost more.

Kyle Pearson

>>>This is basically the same process that Ibn Khaldun described in connection with North African dynasties.

And he took it from the Greeks, who extended it beyond dynasties ("Tyrannies") and on into representative government ("democracies"), oligarchies, and then back again.

Matthew

Walrus: America's 19th Century Industrial Juggernaut was based on protectionism. (Thank you, Alexander Hamilton.)

People forget that.

Kyle Pearson

>>>Lots to like, but one major contradiction. You can't be America First, and then talk about sticking with "friends" when those friends (Saudi Arabia and Israel) are sabotaging our policies.

The general gist of his remarks, here, indicate a strong confrontation against the Saudis - about whom, during the speech, he never voiced anything but indignation and contempt.

Reading between the lines - and Trump has been very skillful about this, during his campaign - he leaves a lot of space for how he would handle Israel and the Saudis.

turcopolier

Kyle Pearson
IMO the Israelis, Saudis, EU, Russia and China are all aware that this was an announcement that approaches and attitudes would be different under Trump. pl

Matthew

Fred: Trump's comment was very wise, and it is the opposite of "Ugly Americanism." If more R2P people actually gave a damn about Arab lives--instead of worshipping the idea that every Arab society actually needs a GLBT caucus--we might cause a lot less damage in the ME.

I'm a liberal. I just don't believe in liberalism-by-force.

Matthew

Tyler: I like the Trump speech, I just think he needs to jettison the notion that we've treated Israel badly. That's pure nonsense.

Kyle Pearson

(and to Tyler):

China's economy is rotting from the foundations, right now, with social justice being the primary worm eating away at the facade.

And Babak: Japan's people, as a whole, enjoy a VASTLY superior standard of living to any other people in Asia, and most people in Europe - so this myth about how Japan's "protectionism" has ruined it is just that: a myth.

Japan's youth may not be thrilled with the way things are, but they're a heckuvalot happier than US / Greater American, African, Eastern European, and Muslim youth across the planet.

I am always entertained by how armchair economists talk about how Japan's economy is 'stagnating': people are happy, fed, housed, and employed there. The arts, sciences, humanity, and educaiton in Japan remain among the best in the world.

Opportunities are limited, there, but in no way are the limited the way they are in the US, nor even in many places in Western Europe.

Matthew

Eakens: If Trump wants Iranians to buy American products, we need to remove the sanctions. He was complaining about Iran entering into a deal with Airbus. We can't have both sanctions and trade.

Matthew

Col: It is a mystery to me why unabashed American Nationalism is even controversial.

Robert C

I hope so.

Dubhaltach

In reply to Babak Makkinejad 27 April 2016 at 07:10 PM

I think it's a universal every North European culture has some version of this proverb.

"Clogs to clogs in three generations"

I've only read the one volume abdridged edition of The Muqaddimah and even that I found it hard going perhaps because I'm missing too many referents.

Babak Makkinejad

All human organizational constructs have inertia - resistance of change - some times for ill some times for good.

I do not think US is exceptional.

Russia, China, and US, and likely a number of other states are working on hyper-sonic nuclear weapons to be delivered within 15 minutes all over the world.

And I ask myself, "What is the point?"

It is not going to buy strategic stability or security - on the contrary - it will make things that much worse for them and for others.

Why does the Russian Federation need to deliver a nuclear bomb to Lagos within 15 minutes?

Why does China require the ability to annihilate Santiago (Chile) within 15 minutes?

Did the Chileans do something to China?

Or will do so in the future?

We really need to all work together and contribute to the realization of the Makkinejad Proposal.

We all will live better knowing that we have interstellar distances between ourselves and others who are not us.

cynic

Or, as they used to say in the North of England,'Clogs to clogs in three generations'.

bth

Things we might expect to see from Trump in coming months.

1. Trump to meet Putin. Staged handshakes. Pledge to improve relations. Short but off camera meeting. Internet trolls wait for cue, Putin smiles, they smile and post on blogs wildly. Eastern Europe freaks, German industrialists cheer at the prospect of reduced sanctions, EU military force concept begins to be talked of seriously with fear of declining US Nato commitment. Clinton races to take advantage. Putin uses German publications to dish the dirt on Clinton.
2. Trump to Israel. Pledge undying love. Bibi asks for more.
3. Trump to strap Trans Pacific Trade agreement around Obama-Clinton party and light on fire. Trump declares we can negotiated better deals one on one without secret provisions. Congress and Clinton disown TPT.
4. Trump to offer Puerto Rico statehood for reconciliation of debts much the way the US did with Texas in the 1840s.
5. Trump proposes oil import tax to protect domestic industry.

Food for thought as we begin to review scenarios for the next 6 months.

swampy

Shirt sleeves to Shirt sleeves in 3 generations

Matthew

Great quote: "New ideas are rarely popular with those making a living off the old ideas."

--Bill Mitchell

Matthew

Kyle: He did say earlier in the campaign he expects Israel and other countries to pay us back. You can imagine how happy that made the Neo-Cons.

Kyle Pearson

His comments about "rebuilding the military" worried me, too - particularly the part about the nuclear arsenal.

But then, flip it around and he ALSO made pointed comments about building better, "working" relationships with the Russians and Chinese that he pointedly said did not have to be antagonistic or confrontational.

Each strategy rather overshadows the other, but of the two, the ONE thing i have heard him say from day one of his foreign policy comments is that he is dedicated to building a working relationship with China and Russia.

Both are battlefield-allies to Iran, these days, and Iran is part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as well -

I'm wondering if his comments about rebuilding the military weren't aimed at flattering the audience? He did spend a LOT of that speech condemning US militarism over the last 24 years.

Matthew

Tpinlob: South Korea used protectionism to go from being a rural nation to an industrial powerhouse in 50 years. 50 years from now under CAFTA, Central America will still be exporting people and bananas.

Kyle Pearson

>>>If Trump thinks he can negotiate with Putin about putting missiles of any type in Poland and Eastern Europe, which would include a substantial number of troops to man, support,and protect them, it would seem to me that he would not need to walk away from a negotiating table; he would never get to the table.

A *central* point of Trump's foreign policy declarations has been to build a mutually respectful, working relationship with Russia.

The other side of Trump's foreign policy comments has been that he's not inclined to give away any bargaining chip.

I can easily see Trump sitting at a bargaining table and saying "Look, i've got these forces that are pushing to put missiles, here. How can we convince them that's not necessary? Let's work to make that happen."

cynic

Does it much matter what Trump, or any other politician says, particularly before election? Remember that, 'when all is said and done, more is said than done'.

If elected, Trump might prove to be not very different from the others. He obviously likes to unsettle people a little, to remind them that he is the boss. It would be very amusing to be at the head of the vast Federal bureaucracies, and be able to point to people and say,"You're fired!" It might even concentrate some minds.

However, Trump has lived and made money amongst the sleazy people who constitute the political and upper business class, and is comfortable there. He is known to have been friendly with the Clinton's, so unless she greatly offends him, he would be unlikely to press for Hillary's prosecution, and could be open to a deal to pardon her, maybe after minimal punishment.

There would be some change of snouts around the trough, but basically his administration would and probably could not be very different from his rivals'. He might shake things up a little, but afterwords people might realise that just as Obama has disappointed those on the left, so Trump (or another) would disappoint those on the right.

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