The Somewhat Phony, But Still Bloody War In The Donbass - TTG

The frontline between the Ukrainian Army and the Novorossiyan Army has been static since the imposition of a truce after the signing of the Minsk-2 protocols in February 2015. That does not mean it’s been quiet. The Minsk-2 protocols called for the removal of heavy weapons from the front lines. That was happening, but now both sides are moving many of these weapons back to the front. I've been waiting for months for this sitzkrieg to boil over into something more dynamic. The fighting has been almost constant with mortar/artillery duels and small arms battles daily. This British Channel 4 News video and these sound recordings of fighting at Avdeevka and Peski paint a good picture of fighting in the Donbass.

Many of the Ukrainian bombardments still target civilian areas. Some things never change. However, the civilian infrastructure and the situation of the people of Novorossiya seems to be slowly improving since the imposition of Minsk-2. New housing is being built and old housing is being repaired. New shopping centers are opening and there are goods on the shelves. Agricultural production is now higher than before the Maidan coup. On the other hand, things for the Ukrainians seem to be getting worse each day. I keep thinking something's going to give any day, but it never does. I'm still waiting for it to blow up one way or another.

Kiev is still adamant that they have been fighting the Russian Army from the start. U.S. and various NATO mouthpieces have echoed this line without question. I haven’t heard any U.S. Intelligence source make such a claim. I believe a few have said just the opposite, but those reports were quickly stifled by the Borg media. I seriously doubt there are any Russian conventional units in the Donbass or ever have been. I've seen no convincing evidence of Russian troops in the area. Although I have seen no proof of it, I would imagine that some Russian Spetsnaz recon teams were in Ukraine and may still be there using Novorossiyan rebel cover.

We've seen what the Russians can do with a Syrian Army on brink of defeat. I have no doubt they can do more with an advising, training and equipping strategy with the ethnic Russians, most with Russian military training, on their own border. Syria was proof that the Russians are damned good at this. And it adds to my conviction that no Russian troop units are in Novorossiya. The Russians have continued to train and advise the Novorossiyan forces over the past year. Reorganization efforts are concentrating on forming battalion tactical groups (BTG) on the Russian model. These BTGs are capable of independent action as well as operating as part of larger brigade formations. They seem to have a higher ratio of fire support to maneuver elements than our  battalion task forces. I am impressed by this concept. This “South Front“ article from last August describes some of the other changes occurring in Novorossiya’s Army.

Where will all this lead? Will full scale fighting erupt again? That vile, neo-nazi cabal in Kiev may yet collapse. Yesterday’s Dutch referendum “no” vote on the EU association treaty with Ukraine may hasten that collapse. If a collapse is imminent, I can see Kiev launching an all out assault on the rebels in desperation. If that happens, I believe Putin will continue to support the Novorossiyan defense, although that support will not extend to marching on Kiev. Putin still prefers a political solution.

If Kiev does feel froggy enough to jump, I believe they will have their neo-nazi asses handed to them by the Novorossiyan forces. This time, I doubt Kiev will be saved by a Minsk-3 agreement. The lead photo is of Lieutenant Colonel Mikhail Tolstykh, AKA Givi, commander of the DNR Somali Battalion having a heated philisophical discussion (some called it torture) with the commander of the Ukrainian 93rd Guards Mechanized Brigade, Colonel Oleg Mikats on the occasion of his capture by Givi at the Donetsk Airport in January 2015. Mikats was also a ranking Pravy Sektor member. I found the quote from “Breaking Bad” to be most appropriate. If Kiev attacks, they will discover that it will be Givi and his fellow rebels who will be knocking.

TTG

Comments

[LeaNder]

I babbled a lot yesterday, dealing with a network under assault and looking for distraction.

In the case before, I didn't even check coherence and/or spelling.

In any case it feels I may have forgotten to add the link:

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2016/04/05/discussing-panama-papers-uk-referendum-channel-4-news4-april-2016/

[Patrick Armstrong]

Good, accurate and economical summary. All I would add is that Moscow is hoping that, one way or another, decent Ukrainians will somehow rise against the corrupt/nazi/NATO stooges in power. That will take time, suffering and the growing indifference of outsiders. For years I've been saying that all Moscow wants is a Ukraine that 1) pays its bills 2) is not a NATO launching pad and 3) doesn't have a crisis every five years that keep everybody in Moscow up all night. But Crimea is a done deal. In short prosperous enough, neutral and reasonably stable. BTW I say "nazi" and not "neo nazi" because Right Sektor/Svoboda/Azov types can trace their decent from the real thing; they're not kids living in Mummy's basement with a collection of replica SS knives.

[Patrick Armstrong]

See this http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.ca/2014/02/what-really-happened-overnight-in-crimea.html

IMO this was the only insertion of Russian forces from outside; all the others were already there.

[LeaNder]

"as 'cover' for an under cover investigation"

Fred, considering the context, and I don't even have to follow neither your or Brunswick's links. OK I looked at two.* The judge decided it was central evidence, that's why he possibly decided to seal both what he considered an attempt to manipulate a section of the public and I guess the fraud that made it possible cannot be used to do exactly that:

"Of course ordering all the evidence be removed from public view "injunction ... to keep more than 500 hours of Daleiden’s unreleased footage under seal." is not preemptive censorship but good old fashioned justice."

If he considers it both fraud and evidence, how could he have decided otherwise?

I assume, that --again I did not look up any links on this issue, since it is SERIOUSLY OFF TOPIC anyway --that there are for you appropriate conservative judges that can take a look.

But, then any court of appeal has to deal with his argument, his evidence and the law. Law leaves legal traces.

Although, yes, I have no doubt that a specialist at jury selection among other things may help to get you and Fox News the verdict they like. If they haven't forgotten about it by then.

* We debated the Rolling Stones rape, fraternities and university hype before. I am female, but had I been a reporter I had surely handled it with care. But then there are reasons for that. Experience?

[ISL]

Well, the WW2 movies I watched had me and the American audience cheering against the Nazi's. Still feel the same.

[bth]

"The videos show Tolstykh clearly identifying himself before grabbing the prisoners by the face, brandishing a dagger, and cutting off military insignia and forcing them into the prisoners' mouths." Givi makes popular videos abusing Ukrainian prisoners on YouTube. You can watch about 20 minutes of it on YouTube but will have to get the link yourself. I'm sure the fellow travelers will have a positive spin to add.

[The Twisted Genius]

elkern,

You're definitely reading too much into this. It's just fan art. The internet is full of this stuff.

[jld]

We would welcome your opinion (positive spin?) about the ISIS/Al-Quaeda/FSA videos on Youtube, which very likely amount to way way more than 20 minutes...

[The Twisted Genius]

bth,

If Givi was in the U.S. Army, he would be standing before a court-martial for his treatment of prisoners. It was a Russian news crew who made that video. Weeks later, the Donetsk government paraded Ukrainian prisoners through the streets of Donetsk, just as the Soviets did to German prisoners in Moscow. The West howled bloody murder about this, too. That is also considered a war crime. As is the indiscriminate bombardment of civilian targets by the Ukrainians, but the West seems to have no problem with that. How's that for fellow traveler positive spin?

[Fred]

LeaNder,

The topic of this thread relates to the war in Ukraine. My comment was about investigative journalism and government attempts to compel journalistic silence with intimidation through use of prosecution on even the flimsiest of legal basis or of evidence. This comment was made in response to one noting investigations by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists.

Government attempts at silencing journalists are very much a part of the what is happening in Ukraine, from the Maidan Square "revolution" to the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 to this activity in the Donbass. Too bad you don't understand that connection.

[Fred]

Brunswick,

Thank you for a very informative summary.

[Joe100]

I recall a post on the Col Cassad blog during the heavy Donbass bombardment period indicating that that care was taken by the Kiev forces not to shell the wealthy residential areas of Donesk..

And then there is the intercept of a phone call by EU foreign Minister Ashton, Estonian foreign minister Urmas Paet and Olga Bogomolets, a doctor working with Maiden protestors. Dr. Bogomolets indicates that it was clear to her that the sniping coming from both sides was by the same group. After some "gee we should investigate that" chatter, later on the conversation Ashton notes that she will push Dr. Bogomolets as the new health minister..

Paet confirmed that intercept was of an actual call and accurate.

See: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/05/ukraine-bugged-call-catherine-ashton-urmas-paet

And it is worth listening to this call on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEgJ0oo3OA8

[Brunswick]

If you are looking for a "case" of Government silencing journalist's

David Daleiden is not an example, no more than Bernie Madoff is a case Big Government shutting down an entrepreneur/small businessman.

[Brunswick]

LeaNder,

Ukraine is one of those 20th Century European Wars, "false constructs".

Eastern Ukraine has "always" been Russian, Western Ukraine used to be part of the AustroHungarian Empire's Galacia, and parts were part of Poland's Galacia.

It's one of those "messy" places on the map where major changes of both map lines and populations were moved, ( and exterminated) many times after 1914.

It's also one of those places where highly selective history can be easily written to demonize the "other", and yet the movements of people over time has left "the other", not two villages down and across the river, but instead, living in the flat above you.

It's a country with multiple wealths, a surfit of good land and clean water, energy by the ton, "old" industries like steelmaking and "new" industries like satellites and websites, with a highly educated population, that should be rich beyond measure,

But instead, the people live in poverty which since the end of the Soviet has just become worse and worse.

[Fred]

Brunswick,

You are right, he's not, he's just the first step in the journey.

[Dubhaltach]

TTG, All:

Is Yatsenyuk going willingly or was he pushed? Does anyone know anything about Groysman? http://www.unian.info/politics/1315061-mp-from-poroshenko-bloc-faction-says-groysman-to-become-new-prime-minister.html

Dubhaltach

[The Twisted Genius]

Dubhaltach,

I think Yats left as a sacrificial goat in an attempt to relieve Kiev of its terminal sickness. He knew it was coming and he resigned before only to be reinstated. Groysman has been part of the Kiev government as long as Yats has. I don't know what difference he can make. What concerns me more is the appointment of Yarosh as an official advisor to the Ukrainian Chief of Staff and the inclusion of the Pravy Sektor battalions into the Ukrainian Army. As Patrick Armstrong pointed out, these aren't neo-nazis, these people are direct descendants of Hitler's nazis.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to The Twisted Genius 10 April 2016 at 01:41 PM

Thanks TTG

Pretty much what I'd thought. Yours and Patrick Armstrong's point about the re-emergence of Hitler's descendents is something I can vouch for from direct experience.

I live in Denmark and have done a fair bit of travelling in former Soviet Bloc countries but in particular Poland and the Baltic republics. Between the horrific attitudes of some of their soldiers and the horrific history in which they took pride I sometimes found it difficult to credit my own ears. (There was a lot of contact between the Nordic Council countries and the Baltic republics in particular at the time - both in terms of EU and in terms of the Nordic Council countries strengthening their "near abroad" neighbours).

I'm the product of an Irish father and a Danish mother so animosity between small countries that have been occupied by their larger neighbours is something I can well understand. But most of what I heard was out and out Fascism. Particularly in the Baltic republics it was downright vicious in Estonia the people I met downright glorified the exploits of Franz Augsberger and his men.

Poland wasn't quite so bad, the people I met tended to hark back to the thirties rather than WWII for obvious reasons but it's still the only country where I was asked in a very hostile way if I was a Jew (Yid). Not that a nostalgia for the Polish government before the war is all that much better mind you - they were a very nasty bunch of extreme right wing fanatical nationalists.

Do you remember the Polish guy who posted here (???Peter) the one who could never hide his ethnic hatreds? - he was mild compared to these guys.

[bth]

This thread has lost objectivity. Its become a propaganda pile on.

[turcopolier]

BTH

Please finish your thought. pl