There is so much going on in the world that I want state my opinions during these interesting days. I don't claim that this is reportage, only my opinion:
- US Foreign policy. What on earth are we doing? Carter, Durnford, Nuland, Brennan and the incredible Breedlove all seem intent on war with Russia. Russia is a much weaker country militarily and economically than the US but it is also armed with several thousand deliverable nuclear weapons. Is it really wise to pick a fight with an entity that may feel deeply threatened by such things as NATO expansion but which also possesses the ability to destroy you in a mutual festival of death reminiscent of what happens if you put two scorpions in a jar. Breedlove in particular is a bizarre creature. He looks and talks like a used car salesman pushing to get the numbers up for the month. What exactly has Russia done to require such aggressive reactions from the US? Breedlove wants to permanently return a heavy (armored) US Army brigade to Europe? For what purpose is that desired? Is it to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, the Baltics or some other place in eastern Europe? Does anyone not invested in international tension really think Russia is going to invade these places? Is it anticipated that the Russian intervention in Georgia set a pattern for Russian aggression? If that is really believed at the level of government of the people named above then war may be inevitable. In "Doctor Strangelove" General Buck Turgidson, USAF (imagined) tells the president that he can "absolutely guarantee" that US casualties in a USSR/USA thermonuclear exchange would be "no more then 10 million dead, 20 million tops!" In fact the estimates current in the US government before the fall of the USSR were for much higher US casualties than that. What on earth are we doing?
- Yemen. The Saudis have been defeated. They have lost a lot of men and have shown themselves to be inferior fighters when compared to the Yemen Army/Houthi forces. This makes the "threat" of Saudi intervention in Syria a massively nonsensical fraud. If exposed to the heat of the campaign now being waged in Syria by R+6, the Saudis and their mercenaries would melt away like snow.
- Israel. Natanyahu and company are so sure of their "soft power" (campaign money) position in the US that he dares to once again show his contempt for Obama by spurning an invitation to the Oval Office. What is his problem? He wants more money and equipment than Obama is willing to give him and he wants the US to be silent about any damned thing he wants to do? Failing that he thinks that he will get a better "deal" from the next US president? Well, you see, pilgrims, beggars really CAN be choosers.
- Turkey. Erdogan and his dwarf familiar Davutoglu are well along in the process of destroying Kemalist secular Turkey and its constitution. There are now direct assaults on press freedom and individual self expression in Turkey. At the same time Erdogan continues to have the Turkish Army shell YPG positions in Syria. He cannot do more because Russian air defenses have blocked him from anything more At the same time Erdogan and his Grima Wormtongue PM clone are trying to blackmail the EU into giving them a great deal of money and accelerated EU admission in return for a cessation of Turkey's little "refugee" project. "They have brass balls" was the old US Army that described people like them.
- Afghanistan. "Good money thrown after bad." We created a state apparatus that Afghanistan can never pay for from domestic resources. And even that bloated structure cannot hold the state's effective territory against the Taliban and IS jihadis. The area of jihadi control is continuously expanding.
- Syria. R+6 forces are advancing across the country. There have been local jihadi and unicorn counter-attacks in the last week but they have all been defeated. the liberation of Palmyra and the relief of the isolated Deir as-zor enclave seem inevitable. FSA and other more or less seculars rebels are surrendering to the government amnesty program and in many cases are being put back in charge of defending village localities. The elimination of rebel forces in Lattakia and Idlib provinces seems likely. In the east, IS defenses appear to be crumbling from a lack of resources now that the money derived from oil exports through Turkey have largely been halted by Russian and US air. Logistics rules! The "long pole" for me continues to be the small number of ground forces available to R+6.
- Iraq. Iraqi Army and Shia militia forces are moving forward in Anbar and Salah ad-Din provinces. IMO this is a result of the general crumbling of IS forces.
- Libya. The next big place. pl
SmoothieX12,
"... Russia does not need even one tenth of power projection capabilities US has,..."
Russia has a much better idea of what their national interests actually are and are limiting themselves to defense of those.
Posted by: Fred | 09 March 2016 at 03:35 PM
The largest, most secretive, heavily guarded military secret in the West during the Cold War was the fact that USSR didn't want to fight the war, let alone the one which would destroy what many Soviets treasured very much--Europe. But then again (I am being deliberately smug here) what would I know with my whole childhood and juvenile years spent in military and military-industrial environment and then almost 11 years of service with Special Significance clearance (I don't know what is the equivalent of it in the US--in USSR it was above Top Secret). Almost each time I read something about Soviet or, for that matter, Russian military doctrine, organization, intentions, strategies--I cringe. With some few exceptions of serious and competent observers who do deliver good assessments, most of what is available on USSR/Russia is complete baloney, bordering on delirium or some dissident psychobabble. Even famous Anti-Sovetchick and Russophobe, Richard Pipes, was forced, in 1977, to admit that US is forming her military policies without even considering Soviet doctrine or strategy. He went on, of course, after that to write about 3 000 words of utter BS, but, at least, the premise was sound. The history of the Cold War is not written yet. Meanwhile, Russia wants to be left alone but she, probably, never will be. Having said that, Russia will continue formation of her armed forces capable of fighting and winning the war in Russia's immediate vicinity (e.g. Ukraine) but nothing more.
Posted by: SmoothieX12 | 09 March 2016 at 04:55 PM
Colonel I understand, IMO Borgistas want to step on China' foot, I think is just a mater of time before borg start demonizing and to sanctioning China, stratigicly speaking I don't think China will give up or let go of NK. I think for China' planers a wild card is God thing to keep everyone in the neighborhood on thier toes. Like if Chinese have their own strategically crazy Saudis in thier neck of woods.
Posted by: Kooshy | 09 March 2016 at 05:51 PM
"Libya. The next big place."
And about to get a whole lot bigger, like through northern Africa according to Peter Lee.
http://www.unz.com/plee/libya-worse-than-iraq-sorry-hillary/
And unlike with Syria and Iraq, there are no regional parties like R+6 with the combination of interest and power to change the course of things. The West is going to be busy with this one for a long, long time. One couldn't blame the R+6 for having a good laugh.
Posted by: Thirdeye | 09 March 2016 at 07:31 PM
SmoothieX12,
Ahh . . . okay then. The suspicion began arising that you might have been saying that pushing NATO eastward actually had some kind of rationale . . . some sort of elevendy-mentional chess kind of thing. I am glad that was not your meaning.
Posted by: different clue | 09 March 2016 at 10:58 PM
An interesting post and thread IMO! One question! How does modern supply-chain theory mesh with military mobilization and logistics? In other words today, right now, what are the key factors in power projection and war-fighting?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 10 March 2016 at 03:44 AM
Obama is one of them.As a high profile charismatic black man he was curiously almost invisible on the campus of Columbia University when ZB was a professor there.I suspect rather than attending regular classes he may have had a special tutored relationship with that notorious Russophobe who guided his world view.
Posted by: Peter Reichard | 10 March 2016 at 07:44 AM
"traditionally the most philosemitic who have viewed developments over the past two decades with, to be frank, a combination of bafflement and horror."
David, when I felt I recognized a trend in the post 9/11 universe, I fled into the academic sphere 'to get some balance' between the surfacing antisemites and whatever category of philosemites--post late 19th century, when they were still called "the friends of the Jews" by the German extreme nationalist right. ...
Unfortunately my academic balancing oasis was broken up between December 2005 and January 2006. By now even the traces of the sycophant, or for that matter the resignation of two people, one of whom may well have engineered the breakup are gone from the web. In any case it distinctively felt that the list editor was forced into resignation by a sycophant, and gone are a multitude of highly interesting scholars and debates.
****
In any case I wonder if "philosemitic", never mind the historical burden of the term linguistically, is a good approach. ...
Posted by: LeaNder | 10 March 2016 at 09:08 AM
thanks Pat, appreciated.
Posted by: LeaNder | 10 March 2016 at 09:31 AM
Prem, how is Chechnya related to our post 9/11 universe? If I may ask a nitwit question.
Posted by: LeaNder | 10 March 2016 at 09:46 AM
Which will come first? Sinking of a US carreir or Chinese occupation of the Moon?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 10 March 2016 at 10:23 AM
It is said that Ronald Reagan before meeting Gorbachev read Tom Clancy, W., actually, tried to read Dostoevsky, Obama has Zbig as one of his main geopolitical advisers and Russia "experts"--it is not a secret. So, what could possibly go wrong here? Well, I am being facetious, of course.
Posted by: SmoothieX12 | 10 March 2016 at 10:39 AM
Basically, your point is that in addition to the nuclear stalemate, there is an economic equivalent that would when addressed by rational folk, would lead to a stalemate - dont try to dance in a rocking boat.
Sorry cant agree to disagree, I agree!
We are fortunate that Russia has followed a rational actor course.
Posted by: ISL | 10 March 2016 at 12:00 PM
O Brother,
After David Brooks: "I Miss Barack Obama"
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/09/opinion/i-miss-barack-obama.html?_r=0
Here comes Jeffrey Goldberg,another dual national who would rather be a prison guard in Israel that joining the US military to show his loyalty :
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/
Wonder who is next - may be someone from WaPo or another journalist who did partake in breaking bread with the new President back in January 2009 at 9 Grafton street in Chevy Chase Village !!!
Posted by: The Beaver | 10 March 2016 at 01:35 PM
SmoothieX12
IMO it is untrue that Zbig is an adviser to Obama. The Zionists hate him and would do everything they could to prevent that. I suppose they could meet in secret somewhere. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 10 March 2016 at 02:37 PM
Speaking of being rational. These news didn't make it to first pages but they surely should have.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-10/iran-told-to-pay-10-5-billion-to-sept-11-kin-insurers
The nation, Iran, which has nothing, zilch, to do with 911 is supposed to pay for Saudi crimes. I can not wrap my brain around it. Full blown Alice In Wonderland, getting curioser and curioser. I've seen nations going completely mad before and I didn't like it.
Posted by: SmoothieX12 | 10 March 2016 at 04:42 PM
Well, I don't claim any expert knowledge on that subject. It started as a nationalist revolt(the Chechens never really accepted Russian rule).
Then it was overtaken by the global phenomenon of Saudi funded Wahabization. Putin cut a deal with the saner rebels giving them lots of money and autonomy in return for stamping out Islamist attacks on the rest of Russia.
If it hadn't been in such a strategically important location I would advocate the Russians leaving - the place is regressing to medieval Islamic social norms. Unfortunately, this is happening in much of the Muslim world.
In the ex-Soviet Union a few Muslim nationalities like those on the Volga seem to be OK, but others are spiralling downwards.
Tajikistan is the worst case. It has gone from having near-European levels of literacy to Indian levels, and heading for Pakistani and Afghan levels. Literate parents are raising illiterate kids - the sort of thing that happened after the fall of Rome or the Mongol conquests.
Posted by: Prem | 10 March 2016 at 07:00 PM
I am aware of Zbig calling on US to stop Israel's possible attack on Iran. That much is true. The problem with Zbig is that once the word "Russia" enters his mind, he becomes totally irrational. He is not a good scholar of geopolitics, because he is not good scholar of the warfare--this is a common trait of both neocons and liberal interventionists or people associated with them. I think, Russians would rather deal with Brent Scowcroft types than with Zbig. Founding fathers warned about foreign passions, Zbig is the case in point--whenever it is about US-Russian relations, Zbig becomes a Pole, which, in the end, he is and that also implies a certain set of attitudes to a certain group of people.
Posted by: SmoothieX12 | 10 March 2016 at 07:25 PM
Sorry, forgot to mention. Zbig, in accordance to Stephen Cohen, at least was consulting Obama on geopolitics.
Posted by: SmoothieX12 | 10 March 2016 at 07:37 PM
@PL
I don't know whether Zbig is presently an advisor to BHO but I recall reading that BHO's undergraduate degree at Columbia was in International Relations and Zbig was one of his Professors or even his senior thesis advisor. I believe the senior thesis, which is embargoed, was on the control of nuclear weapons. It is remarkable that so little has been made of this aspect of BHO's background. Sorry I don't have backup links.
Posted by: Winston Smith | 10 March 2016 at 10:11 PM
Colonel. TTG,
It appears that Breedlove has an anti-Russian successor in Gen. Scapparotti.
Posted by: J | 13 March 2016 at 10:28 PM