Is Iran now on the path to change?

"Final results from Iran’s February 26 elections to Parliament and the clerical body, the Assembly of Experts, show that the moderates have clinched a resounding political victory. In the 290-seat Parliament, the reformist allies of President Hassan Rouhani won at least 85 seats, while the moderate conservatives secured 73 seats. Together they will control the House. The hardliners, who were steadfastly opposed to Mr. Rouhani’s reform agenda, won only 68 seats. In the 88-member Assembly of Experts, the clerics backed by reformists and centrists claimed 52 seats. This is not the first time Iranian voters have spoken their mind against the hardliners. For the last many years they have consistently pushed reformist or less conservative candidates through Iran’s rigid electoral process. Still, last week’s twin elections were highly significant for Iran’s polity in general and Mr. Rouhani in particular for a number of reasons. This was the first election after Mr. Rouhani secured the historic nuclear deal with world powers last year, ending the country’s isolation in return for giving up its nuclear programme. The hardliners were opposed to the nuclear deal. Even the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had warned the political leadership several times against any rapprochement with the West. The hardliners had also opposed Mr. Rouhani’s plans to open up the country’s economy and reach business deals with overseas companies, including those from the West. "  The Hindu

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 The MSM of the West seem uninterested in the results of the Iranian election.  I don't pretend to understand the complexities of the political dance underway among moderates, hardliners and reformers.  I look forward to a collection of knowledgeable comments on this subject.  pl  

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/blow-for-reformists-in-iran/article8305450.ece

https://southfront.org/the-iranian-parliamentary-the-assembly-of-experts-elections-and-their-consequences/

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

They have written off regional states (excepting Iraq and Syria)...looking to the Far East...

[SmoothieX12]

Well, good golly, of course, how can anything non-Islamic be magnificent. Ah, those jahillya scoundrels how did they fail to provide for car in each garage and free internet.

[SmoothieX12]

"Russia no longer borders Iran, a first in 200 years, and Iranian leaders have not done anything to take advantage of that politically against Russia since 1991."

Russia and Iran are connected by Caspian Sea and, despite changed conditions since 1920 and 1940 Treaties, both will try to keep Caspian Sea what it was before Soviet collapse--internal Iranian-Russian sea, mostly. The issue of Astara and Hasan-Kuli triangles, thus, are now Iranian-Azeri and Iranian-Turkmen issues, if they exist at all today. The fact that Russia doesn't border Iran changes nothing in North Azerbaijan's dynamics. The rest--last time I spoke with people,trains between Baku and Tehran still run and nothing really changed that much.

[bth]

Well how do they view Lebanon and India in this context?

[bth]

An interesting perspective, but it was Soleimani that went to Russia last July (not the other way around) and made the deals that saved Assad and Iran's interests in Syria.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Not at all.

You can look at pre-Islamic Persian poetry versus what came afterwards, influenced by poetic structures of Arabic, which, in my opinion, remain unsurpassed in the world literature.

[Thomas]

From an outside observation, I don't believe Ali Khamenei wants mortality to be the factor that provides a change of command. With the nuclear negotiations over and if the Syrian Civil War is concluded in fashion that solidifies Iranian interests, I could see the man retiring and handing the reigns to his successor, which most likely would be Rouhani.

[Thomas]

Kooshy,

During the autumn of 2010, Ali Khamenei made several road trips to Qum, with the assumption being the final steps to being named Marja. The following February there were brief attempts to publicly address him as such but it didn't last long. His English language web page does acknowledge him as Grand Ayatollah.

Maybe your friends or relatives over there can confirm the veracity of this story.

[Jack]

Invite MRW as Iran's finance minister. He'll show them that more government handouts to all and sundry and more government boondoggles are just what the doctor ordered. You know, there is a free lunch when government spends like a drunken sailor.

[Farooq]

Amir,
Thanks for your various informative posts on this thread. What is your assessment regarding the larger topic of societal and political change in Iran?

[Babak Makkinejad]

India is irrelevant and Lebanon is part of the Shia Sphere.

[elaine]

While channel surfing earlier today there was a piece on Al-Jazeera
America tv showing a large demonstration in Turkey of people (many
woman wearing colorful head scarfs in the crowd) being tear gased
& roughed up for protesting a raid & subsequent closure of a major
newspaper. Wonder what that's about...

[JJackson]

I recall looking at attitudes polling data a while ago and various countries populations were basically asked where there primary loyalty lay in terms of Nation State, ethnic group or religion. KSA were notable in having the vast majority putting religion before country. The loyalty to country is so dominant in the US I sometimes wonder if they understand areas where it is relatively unemployment. Among my own siblings I have brothers and sisters who are now French or Spanish and my father is probably going to change to Spanish. My allegiance is to others who want what I want for the planet and I am not particularly bothered if they are British or from Botswana.

[SmoothieX12]

"If anything, it is the Russian Federation that ought to feel grateful to Providence for the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Shia Crescent offering them protection and a cordon sanitaire against NATO states as well as the Jihadist Menace."

That is an interesting statement, to put it mildly, but it is not the Shiite Crescent but mostly products of Russia's military-industrial complex, of which Iran soon to be a major beneficiary too, again, which keep NATO states away from Russia. As per jihadism, agree--Iran and Russia can have here a very good cooperation and it is in the interests of both sides. Russo-Iranian cooperation has an immense potential in very many fields. Will this potential be realized? We'll see. One thing is clear, having stable, peaceful and friendly Iran is extremely important for Russia.

[SmoothieX12]

This I don't know but I assume that a lot of good may come out of Russo-Iranian cooperation in the field. As per trade and defense contracts--Iran is her own country. Of course Russia expects some contracts, what Russia does not expect is Iran going against her interests. Where those interests will go--it is not clear yet.

[bth]

Thanks Babak Makkinejad. I was not aware of the death of Alexander Griboyedov and sacking of the Russian embassy in 1829. Fascinating. The embassy thing is a surprisingly consistent issue in Tehran.

[kooshy]

Technically they do, until Caspian legal status changes, Iran is not recognizing caspian legal status change unless she gets 1/5th share.

[kooshy]

I agree with you, and here are our choices a warmonger or as you say a buffoon, I am willing to vote for the buffoon then doing more wars of choice for not so grateful clientele.

[kooshy]

Thomas
I don’t have religious background nor I come from a religious family, what I know is what I have learned from more knowledgeable people. To become a grand ayatollah is very difficult you can’t lobby/ campaign for it or get votes to become one, like some judges here in US. At the time ayatollah Khamenei was voted to become SL he was not even an ayatollah, he was president and his religious title was Hojat-ol-Islam which is let say is like a bishop, that was 25 years ago. The only way to become a grand ayatollah is the more followers you get an the more contributions you receive. For example let say when you have 100k followers and your office receiving contribution from as many followers and in turn your office is supporting the education of 20000 seminary students and couple of thousand students come to your classes, and when you say a word the whole bazaar willingly closes and 100k people come to street on your words, then one has reached the status of GA. To get there is long and difficult, many agree that after 25 years ayatollah Khamenei has reached that status. One cannot and will not get there just by other GAs approval.

[Babak Makkinejad]

And then there was the murder of US Ambassador by a mob... look it up...

[RetiredPatriot]

Croesus, an old treaty negotiator I once worked with had the axiom "positions never change, only the sides holding them."

In this case, yes, I think we're seeing it in action in the US-Iran dynamic.

RP

[Thomas]

Kooshy,

My apologies if I offended you. By your writings I assumed you were an Iranian living here in the US.

"One cannot and will not get there just by other GAs approval."

From my understanding you do need to have other Grand Ayatollahs approval of your religious merit before you can have your followers address you as such. Ali Khamenei has started the process though as you say if not enough people say you are a GA then you are not.

[Amir]

Thanks for the correction. I was guilty of Flemish equivalent of anglicism. I literally translated a Dutch word in that "patronage" particular context.

[Amir]

Especially the caste system and "absolute" feudalism emptied out the Sassanid Iran. A lord, although did not literally owned but had ownership of his selfs, including their women folk. Even if you think Islam is backwards, with their RULES, it was pretty clear cut about RIGHTS of the believers and this contributed greatly in it's adoption by the subjugated people.
Also the blooming of the post-islamic Iranian culture is a consequence of the removal of borders and extensive exchange of ideas. Obviously, this was not an "intentional" plan but flowed naturally out of the forming of the Islamic empire.

[Amir]

It was Putin (!) that sent a "copy" of the oldest Koran to Ayatollah Khamenei ( http://tass.ru/en/society/838571 ), as token of his friendship. An audience with Khamenei is almost NEVER granted and this was a sign that Iran hold the friendship relationships with Russia in very high regards.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-dasgd7OeI
The Putin also met President Rouhani and had a few cookies for him as gift:
https://www.rt.com/business/323225-russia-iran-deals-loan

It is a symbiosis, not a parasitair relationship.