Syria/Iraq Sitrep - 23 March 2016

""The Syrian army regained control of the historic town of Tadmur (Palmyra) with small weapons," a Syrian brigadier-general told Sputnik. Thus, he emphasized that the town was taken without air assistance."  Sputnik

Read more: http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160323/1036821734/syria-palmyra-regain-control.html#ixzz43kO0CsOK

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 As ISIS has itself pressured on several front in Syria, the Iraqi Army is preparing an offensive to finally recapture the 2nd largest city in Iraq, Mosul. Mosul is home to some 3 million residents and such, the city represents ISIS’ most important base in all of Iraq. The video below covers all you need to know about the last few days of battles across Syria and Iraq, including the Islamic State’s skirmishes with the Syrian Arab Army, the Iraqi Army and Kurdish militants. Our partners from www.SouthFront.org have the story covered:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/southfront-iraqi-army-prepares-liberation-mosul-isis-seems-occupied-war-syria/ | Al-Masdar News

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The video embedded in the Al-Masdar piece is quite worthwhile.  It is a general briefing on present events across North Arabia.

IMO it is now clear that rather than concentrate forces for a concentric battle to clear Idlib Province and the remaining rebel held parts of Aleppo City, the R+6 allies are embarked on a far more adventurous and risky scheme.

With the continuing support of Russian and Syrian air the main effort at present seems to be to re-capture Palmyra and then to link up with the long embattled Syrian forces encircled at Deir az-Zor on the Euphrates.  If that can be accomplished then an advance on Raqqa seems likely.  Possible lines of advance would be NW from the Deir az-Zor area and from Palmyra going east and then turning north at Sukhna.   An additional axis of advance from the west on Tabqa might complete the effort.  IMO the possibilities in such an campaign are somewhat limited by the length of the LOCs across the desert and the fairly small number of ground combat units available.  The long lines of supply would have to be protected to keep supply moving and pushed well forward behind the spearheads.  With regard to the limited number of ground fighters, it should be noted that it was necessary to transfer the SAA Tiger Forces brigade to the Palmyra axis of advance and to bring to the same axis the Syrian Marine Regiment from northern Lattakia where it was well employed.  IMO these movements would not have been necessary if ground forces assets were not quite thin on the ground.

At the same time the Iraqi Army and its Shia militia allies are making sounds that declare a willingness to advance to Mosul.  Since the Iranians are involved at various levels with both the Syrian and Iraqi forces it seems likely that they may be coordinating these plans.  pl   

Comments

[turcopolier]

SmothieX12

"Officer?" Rank? pl

[Kutte]

"accomplished" in what regard?

[Tigermoth]

If not already mentioned, the Sputnik article is nonsense; there is a major battle going on right now. Approximately 6000 SAA and others troops are involved. The SAA is making good progress and several fronts coming from the west in 2 parallel bands across the north. One north of the castle and one south of it.

I follow this site: http://militarymaps.info/

They use twitter feeds from the front so it can be a little inconsistent over all of the fronts but is doing well with Palmyra at the moment.

Also this site has pretty up to date information: http://www.almasdarnews.com/

Col Lang. I heartily agree with you on this being a lesson in how to conduct a military action. During the run up to this land battle, the Russian's started hitting all ISIS communications facilities from Raqqa on down to the front, They have being targeting the logistical support lines to Palmyra for weeks now and are continuing. When I compare this to the US coalition activities of hitting a few targets here and there, it is either gross incompetence, if this approach is actually expected to yield positive results, or if intentional, a sad reflection of either military or US foreign policy.

[LeaNder]

Bill, I regret I added anything here and may have helped to trigger an expansion of the diversion from Pat's topic. But here goes:
"the most odious criminal murderer thug in Ukraine"

Which name should I add to a google search?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_oligarchs#Notable_Ukrainian_oligarchs

http://tinyurl.com/NYT-A-Higgins-Ukraine

[SmoothieX12]

I don't know. Most likely officer or NCO (Praporshik).

[turcopolier]

LeaNder

Have I been pleased with the "diversion?" No. pl

[SmoothieX12]

"They know what they're doing"

It is my academic and empirical (and a vast one) contention that they don't. Latest example? Obama's (not some mid-level State Dept. apparatchik) statements on "shredding" Russia's economy. Most, with some notable few exceptions, what is written on Soviet/Russian armed forces is trash. Vast number of the assumptions about the outside world are absolutely ridiculous. The list is huge. Look at the results, they are obvious.

[bth]

I think we are missing what is unfolding in Iraq. Iraqis announced Mosul campaign was in first phase warning citizens to avoid IS HQ locations, bridges and military bases which are being targeted. Also artillery fire support from US marines at Makhmur allowed Iraqi forces to build pontoon bridge and cross to west side of Tigris. Also Shia militias were turned back by Kurds west of Taza so the work is essentially Iraqi regulars, Kurds and Arab Sunni militias going over the bridge. Note that to the west of where the bridgehead must be is the airfield Qayyarah Airfield West aka FOB Endurance which might be a possible objective - just speculating and wasn't it former base for 101st?. Iraqi news is reporting new arrivals of drones and tanks.

Question what is the effective fire radius of marine artillery and does that define the operating radius of ground operations?

[bth]

Info on M777. Note Excalibur round. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M777_howitzer

[Nuff Sed]

Other than Tigermoth's comment, the comments on this thread have been completely irrelevant to the highly significant battle for Palmyra which is taking place. Disappointing. Nuff Sed.

[The Twisted Genius]

Al Masdar News reports the arrival of an important SAA field commander along with 100 man "special operations unit" at Deir Az-Zor on Thursday night. The purpose of the move is to clear the Deir Az-Zor - Palmyra road as well as the Deir Az-Zor - Al Mayadin road. That's some pretty lofty goals. My guess is that the R+6 is well aware of something that is is not yet clear to us. Perhaps they are in the process of hollowing out the guts of the IS beast before moving on to its head.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-shock-troops-arrive-deir-ezzor-important-military-operation/

[Kutte]

They don't believe their own Propaganda, of course, but they believe their own myth, to be more precise. They believe they can fool all the people all the time. They believe their own legend, they are unbeatable and only have to snap their fingers and the crowd is at their feet. After all, hasn't it worked so many times before?

[turcopolier]

Nuff Sed

You seem to be in Iran. Perhaps you could give us your views on the high significance of the battle for Palmyra? pl

[LeaNder]

Not really. Strictly not, I agree. But I somewhat would like to stay out of the "earlier" versus "present" elites debates and ad-hoc attempts to grasp matters. No doubt the world around us is rapidly changing once again.

I have to admit, I am a fan of Katie Miranda. This is a wonderful attempt at "what if" in visualization:

http://mondoweiss.net/2016/03/what-if-bernie-sanders-had-delivered-his-speech-at-aipac/

[SmoothieX12]

Very important news:

"The U.S.-led military coalition against Islamic State said it had also struck targets in and around Palmyra, a rare example of the U.S.-led force attacking an area also under attack by Russian-backed government forces."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0WQ1OX

It is very significant development and it also supports (to a certain degree) my point I made number of weeks ago that Putin is trying to give Obama a face-saving way out. It may, indeed, work.

[oofda]

ISIS has been having money problems- as has been noted here previously- due to oil shipments to Turkey being cut off. Their money problems just got worse.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3509504/ISIS-second-command-7million-bounty-head-killed-Syrian-bombing-raid.html

[Babak Makkinejad]

I do not believe that Mosul can be captured or held without the participation of the Popular Mobilization Forces which were formed in response to Ayatollah Sistani's fatwa to save Iraq.

(The RKG militia demonstrated in 2014 that it was a hollow force; Iranians saved RKG from ISIS.)

[LeaNder]

shepherd, interesting name though. Could I be rated as one of your sheep/sheeple?

Goebbels, also was a dutiful servant to his master. Maybe the most obvious one. Not all servants follow their masters into suicide with their whole family. Do they?

Ever read his diary, or parts of it? Witnessed, as left in letters his occasional despair once the reality did not quite provide him the fodder to give his beloved leader what he expected from his servant in feeding the masses? Reality in any easy to shape form for the task at hand, that is.

He no doubt would have eagerly sucked up whatever might have been helpful in his task for his service. Don't you think?

I could of course look into how relent Bernay's influence was, based on this source. There may be a wider source context I am not aware of, no doubt.

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Don't be misled by the term propaganda, something the trade has given up for the obvious reason, as something that can be easily related to Goebbels.

[oofda]

More on Palmyra- video of the Syrian Army at the gates of Palmyra

http://www.lemonde.fr/proche-orient/video/2016/03/25/l-armee-syrienne-aux-portes-de-palmyre_4890212_3218.html

[robt willmann]

I think that what I was guessing at recently is going on. R+6 is running a gambit in which they think that the opposition in the west of Syria is contained for now because of the "cessation of hostilities", and they are charging eastward to try to take back all of eastern Syria from ISIS before the end of this year because there will be a new U.S. president in January 2017. Russia, Syria, Iran, et. al. are concerned about the presidential election, as they should be. Senator Rand Paul was the only sane candidate among them, but he tried to be everything to everybody and so got nowhere fast. The Libertarian and Green Party candidates are much better on that foreign policy, but they are marginalized.

There is also Syrian oil infrastructure around Tadmur (Palmyra) and going up through As Sukhnah and Dayr az Zawr, and southeast from there. When R+6 gets control of that, they should be able to put the squeeze on the northeast.

[Kooshy]

FYI, I just saw this news, do not know if its true or how credible it is.

"Iran deploys Army Special Forces to Syria and Iraq"
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/03/iran-deploys-army-special-forces-to-syria-and-iraq.php

[Joe Bob]

Like seriously WTF is wrong with your government. The answer to the question is YES. Unconditional YES. No other answer is acceptable.

https://twitter.com/LinaArabii/status/713094885478440961

[BostonB]

Russian special forces soldier calls airstrike on himself when surrounded by Jihadi forces in Palmyra.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russian-rambo-wipes-out-isis-7626914

[Kooshy]

One recent Iranian news that might be relevant to Iran’s presence in Iraq and Syria President Rohani yesterday in a speech to some martyrs event said and I am paraphrasing “for us (Iran) the sanctity and security of the holy (Shia) sites is the red line, we will stand and will not allow this to happen and be disrespected, this is not about Iran, Iraq or Syria, who can stand and tolerate shrines of our Imams hessian and Ali or Saeedeh Zainb be intruded and disrespected.

[Nuff Sed]

Colonel:
Greetings from the heart of the free* world. IRIB News is reporting that Daesh's #2 man was taken out by air strikes in Tadmur. I am not qualified to comment on the military aspects or significance of these ops. I come to your excellent site for enlightenment in these matters. I am conversant and in certain areas even fluent in Shi'a theology, prophetology and Imamology; but that is a conversation we would probably have to take off-line. Nuff Sed.

* Freedom is a function of worldview (cosmology, theology, anthropology).