Syria, 5 February 2016

Interesting things in the news today concerning Syria:

-The Russian MG who briefs at the MOD went to  a lot of trouble today to demonstrate with overhead photos that Turkey is still helping IS export oil from Syria.  One route goes north through the area east of Qamishli into Turkey where the masses of tanker trucks are just waved across the border by the Turks.  This flow probably has a lot to do with why the Russians are going to start using Qamishli airfield as a base.  The Russian briefers are quick to ask the rhetorical question as to why US air is not cutting off that flow.  Yet another flow goes into Turkey through the gap still existing between the Kuweiris air base salient and the YPG Kurd positions west of the Euphrates dam. 

- R+6 forces continue to drive south from the juncture they made in the last days north of Aleppo.  This juncture closes the main supply route (MSR) from Turkey into the mass of rebel forces west and SW of Aleppo City.  R+6 wish of course to provide some depth to the block on rebel supplies that they have created.

- Syrian civilians are leaving the part of the city still occupied by rebel forces.  They know that in one form or another a major fight for the inner city will happen and they sensibly want to get out of the way.  IMO the Syrian government is pleased to have them leave temporarily.

- Saudi Arabia now offers to send its ground troops to Syria.  What a great idea!  They should do that.  I can hardly wait for the spectacle of the "savage" Saudi Land Forces' engagement of R+6 forces.  pl

Comments

[mbrenner]

I presume that what the Saudis have in mind in giving a talking point for those in Washington promoting an American intervention. The KSA would provide local cover (and color) a la Kuwait. Operation "Onward Christian Soldiers."

[raksh wah]

are the Turks sending their forces in? is Russia tryin to bait the Turkish air force by sending the SU fighters across the border with the back up of their SAMS?

[Joe100]

Col Lang -

Do you have a link to today's Russian MOD briefing you are referring to w/english subtitles?

[505thPIR]

Saudi Soldiers in Syria locking horns with the the Islamic state... No blow-back there and certainly, no exchange of ideological DNA that gets brought "home". Bet there is going to be some killer roadblocks in unimportant locations by the KSA military juggernaut!

[SmoothieX12]

is Russia tryin to bait the Turkish air force by sending the SU fighters across the border with the back up of their SAMS?
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No. If anything else, deploying S-400 and Su-35Cs (in addition to SU-30SMs) serves the objective diametrically opposite to baiting.

[Jack]

All

Why aren't Borg media asking Hillary, Rubio, et al about the IS-TURKEY oil laundering program? Where are the various C-in-C wannabes on this matter? How come no one's asking Sec. Carter who hasn't loved a war yet?

I continue to be impressed with what the Russians have accomplished militarily in Syria with an economy a tenth of ours. A big difference seems to be that they have effective partners on the ground in the SAA, Hezbollah militia and the IRGC soldiers.

[turcopolier]

joe100

http://eng.syria.mil.ru/en/index/syria/news/more.htm?id=12070726@cmsArticle

pl

[jsn]

If not reality, at least its shadow has now intruded on the borg:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/world/middleeast/syria-aleppo.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

[SmoothieX12]

Is it me, or Mizintsev and Ralph Peters are remote relatives?

[Brunswick]

Empty words. Saudi is already a "partner" in the military campaign against ISIS, they sent 4 F-15's with some Eurofighters as top cover, and flew a few sorties for the first two weeks, then went home.

They still kept their name on the letterhead though.

Saudi ground forces are getting curb stomped in Yemen, and have lost cities in Narjan province to the Ansruallah fighters.

The Saudi's are just making empty promises in the hopes they can sucker the US into a ground war in Syria, in the hopes of saving their pet Jihadi's from the R+6.

They also hope that this empty threat will have some impact on the so called "Peace Talks" in favour of their pet Jihadi's.

R+6 is just going to ignore this empty threat in public, but in private, they are going to watch the Houthi vids and take vodka shots every time the Houthi's blow up a Saudi Abrahm's or LeClerk.

[Rd.]

"Saudi Arabia now offers to send its ground troops to Syria"

?? I thought the ksa troops were already in Syria for the last 4-5 years!!!!

terrorizing the Syrians, cutting throats and eating livers!!! sounds like the ksa official did not see that memo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SmoothieX12]

I continue to be impressed with what the Russians have accomplished militarily in Syria with an economy a tenth of ours.
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Russian economy is not one tenth of US economy. It is much, and I mean much, larger than one tenth and, the share of manufacturing sector in Russian economy (42%) is twice than that of the US (21%)

https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/country-data/russia-gdp-country-report

The trick, also, not in GDP "value" but in its structure and the number of enclosed technological cycles nation possesses. While much smaller than US economy, Russian economy (its value) is, probably, smaller by 3 to 4 times only. But then again, if value of Facebook is any indication, selling air probably also counts as productive economic activity. There is a reason why US "elites" are constantly "surprised" or "shocked" by Russia--when one operates in the "economic" la-la land of FIRE (Finances-Insurance-Real Estate) "economy" it is difficult to understand that iPhones don't grow on the trees and need to be produced.

[Liza]

Adding to Erdogan's misery: Syrian Kurdistan is opening a diplomatic office in Moscow. Similar offices will soon be opened in France and Germany. Apparently, "facts on the ground" have determined that Syrian Kurdistan will be an autonomous region.

http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/02/representative-office-of-syrian.html?m=1

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Jack,
IMO the Russians have a definite goal and are working to achieve it with all means at their disposal. The US-KSA-Israel-Turkey axis dares not articulate its real goals in the region.
Ishmael Zechariah

[b]

@Joe100

The video channel of the Russian military with all briefings is here:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCQGqX5Ndpm4snE0NTjyOJnA/videos

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@all

Again a good Russian briefing. Compared to these, contemporary U.S. military briefings or department spokespersons are a sad joke.

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The Russian have a daily "stick it to Turkey" routine by now. Yesterday they called the Turks "amateurs" and "unprofessional" for stopping a Russian "open sky" overflight at the Syrian border. They said that Russia has more means of getting good intelligence and immediately demonstrated it.
Today RT-Ruptly made a dedicated clip to show off R-77 AA missiles (max 80-110 km range) on the SU-35s in Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjHMaIOsDKc
The also announced a 24/7 operational alarm posture for these planes.
The Russian would really love the chance to use these missiles against Turkish fighters.

That SU-24 the Turks ambushed on Erdogan's explicit order will be remembered as the most expensive plane EVER.

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According to the Guardian's Martin Chulov, who was in rebel held parts of Aleppo city last year, only 40,000 people were then living there.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/12/worst-place-in-world-aleppo-ruins-four-years-syria-war

That number will have decreased since. Keep that in mind when the western media will be filled with "millions under Aleppo siege" propaganda.

In all its recent battles the Syrian army has taken care to leave one hole open in any "Kessel". They want the insurgents to flee and not to waste their soldiers's live to dig them out. I therefore do not expect a real siege in east Aleppo city but pressure attacks from the south, east and west to push the insurgents out through the still open exit in the north-west.

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The Saudis have been sending thousands of their best "ground troops" to Syria and Iraq for years. They now want to send those fat uniformed dudes the Yemenis beat up every day? That would be fun.

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The Turks have created and trained new "Turkmen" units (Turkish fascists, Islamists, Chechens, Uyghurs) under MIT order to invade the area between Avaz and Jarabulus under artillery cover from Turkey. The plan was published by WINEP:

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/a-turkish-friendly-zone-inside-syria

That move would prevent the Kurds from taking that area and it would keep the Turkish supply lines to ISIS (and the oil) open.

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[turcopolier]

Rd & b

IMO the Saudis who are with the jihadis in Iraq and Syria are not members of the Saudi armed forces. The SAF don't have the balls for this kind of thing. pl

[turcopolier]

b

I agree that it is quite skillful to leave an exit point which R+6 have done. pl

[turcopolier]

Smoothix12

You mean Mezvinsky? I never thought of that. I must ask Ralph. pl

[Jack]

According to the link you provided, Russian GDP in 2015 is $2 trillion. Our GDP is $18 trillion. Ok, we're 9 times larger if you want that kind of precision. I was noting scale.

At the end of the day you've got have a reasonable apples to apples comparison. Even if you compare manufacturing output we're much larger.

[JohnH]

Presumably the old souk, the old city, the Christian quarter and the citadel will all be leveled. Tragic. I wonder if the Hafaz al-Assad Mosque, west of the old city, survived. The Hotel Baron, where Agatha Christie wrote the Murder on the Orient Express, was already in shambles before the current unrest, so presumably it was left to crumble on its own.

[J]

Saudi land forces interdiction? More like the Keystone Stooges running into each other to get out of R+6's way as they grind ISIS into the dirt.

спецназ would have fun playing with them.

The ГРУ has a good handle on MIT's mischief. The Turks are being such boneheads.

[Matthew]

b: Warning, FSA mental breakdown alert. See https://twitter.com/RobotNickk/status/695758331684769792

[jerseycityjoan]

This is somewhat off topic but it looks like that with Bernie Sanders, we have a candidate who really intends to reduce our military commitments. Obviously this wouldn't just affect our NATO allies but our Middle East policies as well:

Article subhead: "Sanders campaign says US tired of 'defending the rest of the world' as surging candidate closes gap with Hillary Clinton in national polls"

"The defence relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom will “absolutely” change if Bernie Sanders is elected president, his campaign said on Thursday.

Tad Devine, chief strategist for the Sanders campaign, said the UK should be prepared to re-evaluate that relationship if the Vermont senator’s surging campaign ends in a general election victory, as Mr Sanders believes it is time the US stops “spending so much of its resources defending the rest of the world”.

“Bernie has been very outspoken about his priorities in terms of the collective defence of the United States and our allies,” Mr Devine told the Telegraph, noting that it will be “very different than the current military industrial policy of the United States”."

It looks like more of America is willing to consider Sanders. The Telegraph also reports his nationwide poll numbers are up a lot:

"Even more worryingly for Mrs Clinton, a poll conducted after Iowa showed the race tightening dramatically nationwide, with Mrs Clinton on 44 per cent and Mr Sanders on 42 per cent.

The same polling organisation, Quinnipiac, had Mrs Clinton leading 61-30 in December.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-election/12143396/Bernie-Sanders-will-absolutely-change-US-UK-defence-relationship-if-elected-president.html

[Kooshy]

A Tactical military question for PL or PB:
Now that the R+6 in western Aleppo have divided the Takfires aka rebels to two parts, northerners with their LOC to Turkey still open, and the southerners with their LOC disconnected for most parts.
My questions is for next few days/ weeks how the war in this parts is going to be fought. Isn't more difficult for the Syrian gov friendly forces to fight on one' opposite directions north and south? Or the southern side is so disseminated that they no longer count?

[turcopolier]

kooshy

I anticipate a concentric battle with pressure exerted from as many directions as possible including form the sky. there will probably be a whole or two left open in the encirclement to give direction to the flight/pursuit. They are easier to shoot if they are trying to go somewhere. pl