SHORT AND SHARP: SAA CUTS OFF REBEL "LOC" WITH NORTHERN ALEPPO

By Patrick BAHZAD

As SST had forecast yesterday, the junction between SAA controlled Aleppo and the Shia enclaves of Nubl and Zahra, located some 7 miles North-West of the city's outskirts, was completed by armoured units of the R+6 in a matter of 24 hours. Despite the rebels throwing everything they got at the advancing SAA and NDF forces, the last village standing in the way of total junction was taken a couple of hours ago.

It had been four years since the enclave was cut off government controlled areas in Aleppo. Gaining access to it already represents a huge symbolic victory for the R+6, after the previous major siege they lifted around Kuweires airbase in November 2015. Additionally, and this is much more important in military terms, the R+6 will now make sure they can secure these territorial gains, withstand a probable rebel counter-attack, and then expand the area under their control, so as to make sure the rebels' Northern LOC with Azaz and Turkey is definitely interdicted.

With R+6 gaining more and more control over the border areas in the North and West of Syria, the rebels around Idlib are being confronted with the increasingly likely prospect of encirclement and destruction at the hands of SAA, NDF or Hezbollah forces, or a run for their safe havens and rear bases in Turkey, as long as some of the border posts remain open to them. For the time being, they still control Bab al-Hawa, in the West of Aleppo, but it is questionable whether they will be able to cling onto it for very much longer.

Another option some of the most radical groups will consider is to try and join ranks with ISIS in the Eastern desert or Euphrates valley. Some of the "independent" Jihadi outfits that have been wrongly dubbed as "moderates" might definitely fancy their chances with an Islamic State they have had good - although informal - relations with for months, and sometimes years. Such a development would certainly strengthen Russia's case, which has been arguing since the start of its involvement that it will fight in Syria "until all terrorist groups are destroyed".

The Western Coalition on the hand had argued that the Russians should be targeting ISIS only and not the "moderate" groups operating in North-Western Syria. Any rapprochement between some of these so-called "moderates" and ISIS would certainly undermine the Western stance on the Syrian rebels and make it more difficult to support them during the negotiations in Geneva.

For now however, it looks like the R+6 are tightening their grip on Idlib and heading for total annihilation of any group still in the area, once they launch their final assault onto it. Furthermore, it should be noted that government forces are also closing in on Rastan enclave (North of Homs), which had resisted previous R+6 attempts at clearing the area. Overall, whether in Northern and Western Syria (Latakia, Aleppo and Homs) or in the South (Daraa), the R+6 is definitely increasing its operational tempo. In some areas of strategic importance in particular, we might soon witness a total breakdown of any organized resistance and combat by various rebel groups.

Comments

[jld]

Are the Russians really suspecting a Turkish invasion or is it just PSYOP?
https://z5h64q92x9.net/proxy_u/ru-en.ru/ria.ru/syria_chronicle/20160204/1369651550.html
(hoping the Yandex autotranslate works properly)
If not, original is
http://ria.ru/syria_chronicle/20160204/1369651550.html

[Tyler]

Emad,

"The people are the sea in which the guerilla swims" and all that. The people, for the most part, hate the liver eaters.

Most people who go on about the invincibility of the jihadi guerilla based off Iraq and Afghanistan have no comprehension of underlying factors there.

[b]

Russian military briefing (with English subtitles)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxWqPtn7QtY

"Signs of Turkish preparation of an invasion of Syria ..."

[Disinterested Observer]

@PB & PL

The Russians are claiming that Turkey is actively preparing an invasion of Northern Syria, which would make sense as a forseeable attempt to prevent the defeat of the rebels.

https://www.rt.com/news/331278-turkey-military-invasion-syria/

Also:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idUSKCN0VC169

Do you think the Turks will go through with it? If they do what happens next?

[Thirdeye]

That's an Idlib-Aleppo supply line, not the one they just lost.

[Medicine Man]

Tyler: What's more, a closer look at the US experiences in Iraq only serves to augment what you're saying. Even in an environment where the locals (former Baathist Sunni Arab) had strong incentives not to cooperate with US troops, they nevertheless found the Jihadi presence so odious that they made deals with Army and Marine officers specifically to deal with them. They remained a non-factor in Iraq until the Anbar chiefs jumped back in bed with them.

Russia and her allies enjoy a much more supportive environment in Syria so... if things keep developing the way SST predicts, the Jihadis there are going to be fuuuuuuuuuucked. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, really.

[Medicine Man]

I guess that raises the question: Just how stupid is the Tayyip?

[Medicine Man]

Not to belabor the point, but I think the recent French experiences in Mali also demonstrated that jihadi guerillas are far from invulnerable, especially if the locals are against them. Maybe Patrick knows more about that.

[annamaria]

Whatever their masters in the US tell them to do. Israel wants the Golan Heights, by any means.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I'm not sure they have that many options left, considering how depleted their resources are.

[Patrick Bahzad]

some are trying to reach the border, others link up with other groups.

Turkish artillery can't reach very far into the Northern enclave and even if it could, they would be very well advised to target only YPG positions (meaning they would need spotters on the ground there, tricky ...).

If they shell some Russian or SAA position, they should not be surprised to receive of volley of MLRS in return. Good luck with that ...

I don't think they dancy a border war, with PKK waiting in the wings to launch an armed uprising in South-Eastern Turkey.

So this is not going to happen. Even the news about some planned Turkish invasion of Northern Syria is to be taken as a warning by R+6 against such a move, not as a probable outcome.

[Patrick Bahzad]

They're closing the border already. Means building a fence, manning the border area and controlling who gets in and who goes out ... that's what a border is all about.

[Jack]

Now that the Russians know what RTE is planning, what can they do to counter? Bring in more aircraft and heavy artillery?

RTE must believe that escalation will help his failed Syrian gambit. I doubt that Obama and the Europeans will get involved overtly anyway, although they may get hysterical in their propaganda.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Fully subscribe to PL's view. R+6 strategy is not based on yet another variation of COIN but on Russian style "combined arms" against a rebel coalition that thought they could take on R+6 in conventional warfare. Whoever was advising them, was deeply misguided.
The strategic stalemate has now been broken and things are in motion again. Military logic would dictate R+6 to follow through and destroy or force surrender of as many enemy combatants as possible.
What happens after this phase is dependent on many contingencies, including the diplomatic agenda and the different actors' priorities. We shall see in time.
Most likely, if R+6 succeeds in achieving decisive victory, they will have to deal with some insurgency/terrorist attacks in some parts (they can deal with that) and they will focus their attention on defeating ISIS West of the Euphrates, including Deir ez Zor and Raqqa.
They might also start to compete with US Coalition for local alliances with YPG and SDF, thereby strengthening their grip on North-Eastern Syria. Qamishli airport plays a decisive role in that regard.
But all of this conjecture, for now.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Not viable considering the nature of the current campaign. It's not like the R+6 is overrunning rebel lines and leaving them roam freely in their 'hinterland'. There is a systemic "clear and hold" plan at work here.

JaN has already considered going underground, splitting up in small units or cells and come back later as a terrorist/insurgent force. However, that would put them in the exact same situations many insurgencies have been in the past. And they have all been defeated militarily. This would apply even more so in Syria, where the allegiances of the civilian population are very split (depending on the area).

[Patrick Bahzad]

Mali has been a kinetic campaign, not based on COIN doctrine. It was basically a fast moving and manoeuvering force with lots of fire power fixing and destroying whatever they had in front of them.

This is a good recipe for short term military success. When the enemy has sanctuaries it can retreat to, there is a chance he might come back. That is what is happening in Mali and Sahel region now.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Only once thing to reply to the spin-doctors "reality is a bitch" and they're about to find out. Lots of very worried and slightly alarmed articles, OP-EDs and other pieces in today's MSM.

[Patrick Bahzad]

they'll be counter-attacks and counter-counter-attacks for some time still. This war will not be over tomorrow. We're just saying that things are shaping up the way we anticipated.

AS for ISIS, this is another story, let's not get things mixed up.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I think RTE isn't that stupid, or is he ?

[Patrick Bahzad]

don't believe for a second they will go through

[Patrick Bahzad]

If the US were truly Turkey's and RTE's masters, we would not be in this mess in the first place !

[Matthew]

MM: Call me cynical, but "invasion plans" probably equals "defend Turkey from all the armed Jihadis fleeing the SAA." Which one is true? Don't know. Both fit.

Can't imagine that Erdogen will tell the Turkish people that he's now got to move an army to the border to defend Turkey from the all the head-choppers and liver eaters that he's allowed to transit through Turkey since 2011.

[Thomas]

"Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, really."

But these are the BFFs of the Borg. Maybe they will have a fundraising dinner in DC for them, main course Liver and Onions.

[Thomas]

I could see him going for broke on his lifelong work for a Neo-Ottoman empire, especially if he has NATO insiders encouraging him with the belief that help will be on the way when it all hits the fan.

[ToivoS]

I have been long puzzled by this claim that the French defeated the Algerian FLN. To be sure the FLN lost the battle of Algiers. As far as anyone can see they lost every battle they fought against the French in the country side. But in 1961 the FLN was still mounting military attacks against the French. So they might not have been winning the war, their forces were still in the field.

Then suddenly de Gaulle decided to withdraw from Algeria. One of the factors in de Gaulle's decision was that the French business community were arguing that the Algerian war was so distorting national expenditures that it made it difficult to grow businesses in France. Somehow, it seems to me, that if one side in a war quits because it can no longer afford the fight then the other side, who has shown a willingness to pay the price, has won.