Yesterday Leith Fadel of Al Masdar News reported the SAA offensive to seize the Al Tabqah Airbase is proceeding nicely. Several correspondents of SST have already noted this and commented on its significance. The map above shows just how significant the seizure of Al Tabqah truly will be.
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Moments ago in the Al-Raqqa countryside, the Syrian Arab Army’s 555th Brigade of the 4th Mechanized Division – in close coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF), Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra (Desert Hawks Brigade), Fouj Al-Joulan (Golani Regiment), and the pro-government Palestinian militia “Liwaa Al-Quds) – imposed full control over several hills surrounding the imperative village of Zakiyah along the Salamiyah-Raqqa Road.
According to a military source in the Al-Salamiyah District, the Syrian Armed Forces established control over several small hilltops that surround the village of Zakiyah in southern Al-Raqqa after a fierce battle with the so-called “Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham” (ISIS) this morning.
Recently, ISIS lost control of the Zakiyah crossroad that would allow them access to much of the Hama Governorate’s eastern countryside; this loss now leaves the terrorist group without a primary supply route to their stronghold at the town of ‘Aqayrib. (Al Masdar News)
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Supporting the SAA 555th mechanized brigade is the Desert Hawks Brigade, a battalion sized force of SAA veterans and volunteers armed with light and medium arms. I am only guessing, but I would imagine the Desert Hawks make heavy use of "technicals" since it was often used to intercept rebel and ISIS columns in the deserts of central and eastern Syria. It is reportedly trained by the Iranians. Along with the other units, this SAA force reminds me of the Africa Korps, a small force operating in the desert away from the main effort that has the potential of producing a military success far surpassing its small size.
TTG
How embarrassing is it going to be for Josh Earnest when R-6 takes Raqqa?
Posted by: JMH | 15 February 2016 at 02:47 AM
On a technical point, wasn't the Afrika Korps the name for the entire German expeditionary force in North Afica under Rommel?
I think you might be thinking of the British Long Range Desert Force (which later developed into the SAS) which deployed in a similar way to the one you describe?
Posted by: johnf | 15 February 2016 at 02:59 AM
Instead of the Afrika Korps, using technicals to operate in the desert and shoot up supply convoys more resembles the British Long Range Desert Group transporting David Stirling's Special Air Service commandos on raids deep into the Axis rear areas. The best defense against such units is air power -- which, fortunately, is an asset the ISIS/Daesh liver eaters do not possess....
Posted by: Trey N | 15 February 2016 at 03:23 AM
Pat, I doubt I would have enjoyed the comments of Harald Kujat in a talkshow yesterday, hadn't I read your blog for the last decade.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Kujat
Thanks Pat.
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 February 2016 at 05:58 AM
TTG, thanks.
Preparing for a short absence, with all due respect for the sighs of relieve, it may not last, I should have added:
Big thanks of course to the whole SST community for everything they helped me learn here. Not least to open my mind on military matters.
Posted by: LeaNder | 15 February 2016 at 06:24 AM
TTG
This is very good update - thank you . Do we have an idea about how long it might be before relief convoys begin to help civilians in areas secured by the R +6 forces ? And is there any updates concerning Turkish military activity in Syria beyond the shelling of the last few days ?
Posted by: alba etie | 15 February 2016 at 07:00 AM
Good luck to them!
Posted by: cynic | 15 February 2016 at 07:03 AM
What are "technicals"?
OT The Jeffrey Sachs article linked to in previous comments is a must read. First, if one could design a Hilary Clinton supporter it would look like Sachs. He has all the qualifications. Which makes it all the more surprising that his article about her could convince Chelsea not to vote for her. Her shows exactly how dangerous, ignorant, and dishonest she is. Read it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/hillary-clinton-and-the-s_b_9231190.html
Posted by: Bill Herschel | 15 February 2016 at 07:35 AM
Bill Herschel
A "technical" in the 3rd world warfare sense is typically a pick-up truck with some sort of crew served weapon mounted in the bed of the truck. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 15 February 2016 at 08:56 AM
john f,
I was referring to the entire SAA force, including the 555th Brigade, as akin to the Africa Korps. This is not just a raiding force. It is seizing an important LOC with the final objective of the air base and dam at Tabaqa. Perhaps the Desert Hawks are being used as a LRDG-like raiding/recon force in this offensive, but that would be a guess on my part.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 15 February 2016 at 10:07 AM
TTG
Do the Kurds have the north side of the Lake Assad parallel route secured against IS shipments? pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 15 February 2016 at 10:09 AM
pl,
The Kurds hold Tishrin Dam at the north end of Lake Assad. Unless IS has a reliable way of ferrying men and supplies the lake, which I doubt, Raqqa will be cut off from Turkey with the taking of Tabaqa.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 15 February 2016 at 10:17 AM
alba etie,
I have seen photos/videos of supplies being distributed to civilians in R+6 held areas, most recently into the newly relieved towns north of Aleppo. The Russians have airdropped supplies into Dier az Zor which are distributed to civilians by the SAA. You won't hear about this in the MSM.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 15 February 2016 at 10:29 AM
Hope all is well
Posted by: bth | 15 February 2016 at 10:45 AM
Re: Technical
Here is a visual. They may not like our religion, government or society, but they do like our trucks!
http://nypost.com/2015/12/13/texas-plumber-files-lawsuit-after-isis-was-seen-using-his-truck/
Least they could do is translate the plumber logo to local language. My guess they are short on irony.
Posted by: Rex | 15 February 2016 at 10:59 AM
LeaNder,
Return soon. We'll miss your questions and comments.
Auf wiedersehn
WPFIII
Posted by: William Fitzgerald | 15 February 2016 at 11:26 AM
Wow, I agree, it's one of the most relentless criticisms of HRC I've seen. 2 thumbs up for Sachs, forever repenting the mess he helped make of de-Sovietization.
Posted by: hemeantwell | 15 February 2016 at 11:43 AM
Thanks.
Posted by: Bill Herschel | 15 February 2016 at 11:59 AM
TTG,
Radar, a few dozen modern patrol boats, and some naval commandos from the Russian Black Sea fleet ought to be able to solve that problem. Just not sure how the patrol boats would get there. Sikorsky sky crane or Rus equivalent was my first thought but they are slow and have limited range. I guess that goes in the 'logistic challenges' category.
Tabqah dam might be trouble, I read a Defense One story recapping WSJ story (behind paywall) about IS bigwigs and high value captives inside the dam on the theory that no-one would bomb it because of flood danger.
I imagine a dam would be hard to bust into but what do I know? The Russians did help with construction tho, so presumably they have the plans, and know where the front/back door is.
Posted by: sillybill | 15 February 2016 at 12:07 PM
I would think any boats on the water would receive quick attention from Russian Aerospace Services, day or night. Big boats, and docks, likely to attract cruise missile attention. ISIS submarines from Turkey?
Posted by: Rex | 15 February 2016 at 12:25 PM
sillybill,
So IS is using the dam as a Führerbunker. That's a damned smart move. It will be a tough nut to crack. It also presents a unique opportunity if SAA and Hezbollah commandos, perhaps augmented by spetznaz, can seal the entrances before IS can evacuate the dam.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 15 February 2016 at 12:26 PM
Maybe they don't evacuate the dam - wire explosives and a dead man switch up to the turbines and floodgates, then open negotiations for safe passage out of the war zone for all their comrades.
I probably watched to many movies when I was a kid.
Posted by: sillybill | 15 February 2016 at 12:45 PM
It is also clear from Sachs' article that Syria was apparently Hillary's project from the beginning. She was Syria's Victoria Nuland. Who was she serving when she pulled this stunt? The American people? That is a stretch.
Making her President would be a disaster.
Posted by: Bill Herschel | 15 February 2016 at 12:53 PM
So that would leave ISIL with supply routes running into Iraq and then north. SoD Carter has been saying that elements of 101st would be going to Iraq but when and where are unspecified. Also in an interview on the 11th he says that the objective seems to be to support local forces that will stay in the area (by that I assume Sunni tribes) and to crush IS by targeting Mosul and Raqqa. So I am assuming that supply lines between Raqqa and Mosul will be cut on the Iraqi side of the border if they aren't all ready and that the Shia militias will continue to push out from Ramadi and perhaps retake Fallujah and so on from that more southerly quarter. So in essence it would sound like the Russians/Syrias will now come at IS (after meandering north instead of west as the US had planned) from the west, the Iraqi government from the southeast and the US, Kurds and Sunni tribes from the Iraqi north. As to timing, Iraqi government was saying June for Mosul and Russians are talking about a March ceasefire and attempted negotiation probably referring to western Syria and not IS. Here is a link to an interview Ashton Carter gave a couple of days ago that was interesting. What I said here is leaping to some conclusions using open source material so take it for what its worth.
http://enewspf.com/2016/02/11/media-availability-with-secretary-carter-at-nato-headquarters-brussels-belgium-feb-11-2016/
Posted by: bth | 15 February 2016 at 01:22 PM
Easy, just use sarin in there and gas them out. They already have used it themselves so it is easy to just call it an accident.
Posted by: Old Microbiologist | 15 February 2016 at 01:34 PM