In Re Syria:

A number of things:

• R+6 is learning to fight together better and better.  It is clear that the Russians attached to the SAA have made major contributions in assisting; campaign planning, coordinating all arms, arranging re-equipping (T-90 tanks, aircraft, field uniforms, etc.).  Most of all their presence has brought new heart to the Syrians as such help always does to an army desperately locked in combat.  Examples are numerous in history.  For Americans, the beneficial psychological factor that came with the French "Expedition Particuliere" should come to mind.
• IMO the "siege" of Aleppo will not last long.  Rebels are deserting the cause in what they hold of the city.  They know that they are likely to be trapped in a pocket there and given their previous behavior in the war they may well receive Article 45 as a reward for that.  The Russians would have little control over that.  Local allies are never really under positive control by an intervening great power ally.  IMO Aleppo proper has not yet been occupied by R+6 because its partial occupation by rebels serves to "fix" rebel forces more or less in place throughout the NW.
• IMO the refugee flight to the Bab al-Hawaa border crossing west of Aleppo City is not flight from bombardment.  It is flight from the knowledge that a major engagement may occur in and around the city.   There are always a lot of civilians casualties from such an engagement whether the combatants want that or not.
• These "fixed' forces make wonderful objectives for R+6.  Committed to defending localities, they cannot move away from developing R+6 combat power and are being ground to bits as they try to do such things as protecting remaining border crossings into Turkey.
• IMO Turkey continues to debate its future actions.  If Turkey crosses the border with major forces, the Russians may match their escalation either in Syria or closer to home.  NATO must know that such a scenario could escalate to global war and IMO NATO is telling Turkey to be very careful or risk a refusal of support.
• IMO the policy of the US remains both belligerent  and ignorant of actual conditions in the ME region.  The notion that a pan-Sunni armed force can be created for the re-conquest of Iraq and IS controlled Syria is a fantasy.  Why?  Answer:  There are no Sunni dominated countries who either have the forces needed or who are willing to deprive themselves of the homeland presence of what are in essence internal security forces.  The idea that Saudi Arabia with its puny actual combat power could be the core of such a force is known to be ridiculous by all with a modicum of actual knowledge of the region.  Any such force would inevitably be a screen for the employment of major US ground forces to do the real fighting.  The US citizenry will not accept such a thing.   The US government appears to be living in a world of its own dreams and group think.
• There has been some speculation recently on SST concerning the causes of the low quality and inaccuracy of MSM reporting in the US, Britain and other countries.   IMO there are two basic  causes of such journalistic malpractice.  1- Corporate leadership is integrated into the world-wide informal group think network of governments, media. academia, think-tanks and mega-capitalists that I have shorthanded as the Borg.  Such corporate stakeholders are easily pushed in editorial directions desired by governments and special interest groups.  The tools are always the same; money for sponsorship of programs and access to supposedly key people.  2- Media people at the operational level (especially in TV) are generally not well educated.  They are typically products of schooling and experience in the communications arts (including journalism).  Such people are often woefully ignorant of the Humanities (history, languages, area studies, etc.) and lack any context with which to understand events on the world scene.  They are easy prey for the editorial policy given them by the corporate leaders.  There are occasional moments of comedy created by the dissonance brought to the fore by confrontations with reality.  Yesterday, CNN's Jake Tapper was distracted from the primary election circus long enough to show us all film done recently by a CNN reporter in government occupied Aleppo neighborhoods.   Life looked quite normal.  There was a lot of food in the markets.  Children played in the streets.  Women walked around without their faces covered.  Taxis drove up and down picking up and discharging fares.  Several older men were interviewed and they attributed their good conditions to the hard fighting and victories of the Syrian Army.  Tapper did not know what to say and changed the subject.   pl

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cl6-DF0wVo

Comments

[Hood Canal Gardner]

Thanks, good read.

[Paul Mooney]

Thanks Pat for this excellent post. I finally got a definition of "the borg!" :-)

After reading this blog for months I am shocked at the discussion of how to address the challenge of ISIS in forums such as the presidential debates. It really does seem like they must live in a different world. I alternate between being extremely nervous about the quality of our elected leaders and thinking that these statements in the debates are designed to drive votes and behind the scenes a more knowledgeable analysis prevails.

[Richard C]

Excellent analysis Col. Lang - as always.

[Old Microbiologist]

Kudos on a fine piece.

[Fredw]

I think the key is that the issue actually being considered is not "how to address the challenge of ISIS?" but "whether to address the challenge of ISIS?" Lacking any "good" options for getting favorable outcomes, the US has pretty consistently chose to tolerate the ongoing civil war rather than to actually do anything about it. I think that only the arrival of tens of thousands of refugees in Europe has begun to change that. (Which of course raises the question of whether that was a side effect of the war or a deliberate move by the participants.)

[Fredw]

Upon re-reading your post, I realize that you are talking about presidential candidates who really are considering how to address the Syrian civil war. The US government, on the other hand, seems pretty clearly to be considering "whether". So my prior post is rather less coherent than I intended.

[oofda]

Colonel,
In addition to not knowing history language, area studies, today's journos are totally ignorant of science and engineering. Only rarely do we see a journalist that has more than a superficial awareness of those subjects. And totally forget military and naval affairs. That is why the networks rely on retired military that are shills for think tanks and the Pentagon.

[Petrous]

Colonel Lang
your paragraph descriptive of a careless moment by the CNN reporter who let reality seep through to his broadcast is worth its weight in gold. Thank you for including the reference.

[Tony]

Your description of the Borg is just about exactly the same as Marx's description of the Ruling Class

[kooshy]

Col. Lang

Thank you for this informative post, the CNN clip it's so funny, I wonder how it escaped the editorial? unfortunately I missed it, since I try to avoid CNN. I hope someone can post a link if still available.

[cynic]

It seems that in service to their lies the American government sent a couple of bombers over Aleppo to destroy hospitals and other facilities - and then blamed the destruction on the Russians!
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/02/11/aleppo-terrorists-lay-down-arms-cooperate-with-syria-government-russia/
“At 13:55 Moscow time, two US Air Force A-10 attack aircraft entered Syrian airspace from Turkish territory. Reaching Aleppo by the most direct path, they made strikes against objects in the city,”
The statement came after the Pentagon accused Russian and Syrian government forces of destroying two main hospitals in Aleppo in air raids.
Konashenkov said Russian warplanes only hit targets some 20 km (12 miles) from the city on Wednesday.

[Thomas]

"Which of course raises the question of whether that was a side effect of the war or a deliberate move by the participants."

It was Sultan Tayyip's gambit to keep his Neo-Ottoman dream alive.

[cynic]

Real investigative and informative journalism has deliberately been replaced by tittle-tattle on social media. Most of the public does not want anything better. Media and public reciprocally debase each other.

[Thomas]

Most of the public does not want anything better.

BS.

[gemini33]

Anti-ISIL coalition spox Col Warren is battling with Russia's Ministry of Defense on Twitter and elsewhere (see this RT article https://www.rt.com/news/332109-russian-jets-isis-warlords/)

Col Steve Warren on Twitter: https://twitter.com/OIRSpox/with_replies
Russia MoD on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mod_russia/with_replies

Russia claims US flew two A-10s out of Turkey yesterday plus drones, straight into Aleppo and bombed targets. Warren denies it.

Warren claims Russia bombed the two main hospitals in Aleppo, leaving 50K people with no access to care. Russia says they didn't do any strikes in the city of Aleppo yesterday.

The pressure has been ramping up like crazy for the past two days for Russia to stop bombing, for humanitarian reasons, not because the "rebels" are about to lose Aleppo. All the mucketies are in Munich meeting on Syria. Same mucketies were in London last week at the Syria Donors Conference, where all the backers are not happy. Plus, the NATO defense ministers are all meeting in Brussels. A confluence.

Anyway, I thought our militaries were carefully deconflicting all air activity in Syria. Is this argument a sign that we're not doing that? It looks to me OIR spox is adding to the massive outcry to stop bombing as part of the campaign to pressure Russia. Surprising because up until now I thought he was stellar in the job he was doing.

[Abu Sinan]

al-Arabiya, a Saudi mouth piece, is quoting a Saudi general saying that their decision to invade Syria, with 150,000 troops, is going forward.

"Saudi’s decision to send troops to Syria in an attempt to bolster and toughen efforts against militants is “final” and “irreversible,” the Saudi military spokesman announced on Thursday.

"Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri, said that Riyadh is “ready” and will fight with its U.S.-led coalition allies to defeat ISIS militants in Syria, however, he said Washington is more suitable to answer questions on further details about any future ground operations.

“We are representing Saudi’s [decision] only” in sending troops, he said."

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/02/11/Spokesman-Saudi-decision-to-send-troops-in-Syria-is-final.html

[Babak Makkinejad]

Nah, that is not new - during the Apollo missions you saw some pretty little thing asking the break-fasting astronauts about the thrust characteristics of Saturn V or LEM etc. - not knowing a single thing about physics let alone aerospace engineering.

And the tired look on the face of the poor astronaut who had to say something meaningful without either contempt or derision.

[Jack]

Sir

How serious do you think Erdogan is with respect to militarily invading Syria? It would seem a very foolish move considering there is a decent probability that NATO and Obama may let him hang himself by just making threatening noises and doing nothing. It could have devastating consequences for both Turkey and EU.

[Jack]

US and Russia have a deconfliction agreement on Syrian air space. Both sides know about each others flight plans.

[turcopolier]

kooshy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cl6-DF0wVo

pl

[Fred]

Col.,

"Several older men were interviewed and they attributed their good conditions to the hard fighting and victories of the Syrian Army."

Reality strikes the Borg again. I guess all the young ones took Merkel up on her welfare offer, to include all those ISIS members who of course aren't in Europe. I can only guess what the the borgist EU media is not saying about that situation. That video you provided a link for shows the markets are full and streets crowded with pedestrians. Heck the fruit looked a whole lot fresher than what I'm seeing in the stores in Michigan, but I live in the 1st world so what should I expect.

[CaliHalibut]

Thought you guys might be interested in this Syrian war live map I found on social media:

http://syria.liveuamap.com

[Seamus Padraig]

The total fusion of state and corporate power is also how some people define fascism.

[Seamus Padraig]

Regarding your last point, here's someone from Aleppo: "Stop the Lies!" (https://thewallwillfall.wordpress.com/2016/02/11/voice-from-aleppo-stop-the-lies/)

But on the lighter side, here's the wedding of Nada and Hassan, a Syrian soldier, in Homs: http://mashable.com/2016/02/08/homs-syria-wedding-photos/#dXy4xohMEGqo

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

An excellent analysis and summation of the situation. Of note, especially, is your assessment of the reason for the refugee exodus from Aleppo and surroundings. This is being propagandized in order to stop the fighting.

It will be interesting to see how the ceasefire negotiation develops. IMO, the Russians will move on their offered date of 1 March for the ceasefire to begin - because they know that their main objectives will be seized before then.